Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][4] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46.967 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.451 billion yuan, up 89.1% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 0.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-on-year. The company's integrated supply chain business is expected to continue its steady growth, supported by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][12][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 46.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.451 billion yuan, up 89.1% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 0.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-on-year [4][12] Integrated Supply Chain Business - The integrated supply chain revenue for Q1 2025 was 23.201 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%. This growth was primarily driven by increased revenue from JD Group, which amounted to 14.699 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year. External integrated supply chain business revenue was 8.510 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [13] Express and Freight Business - The revenue from other customers (express and freight) in Q1 2025 was 23.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, slightly lower than the overall revenue growth. Excluding revenue from Debon Logistics, the express and freight business revenue was 13.360 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [14] Profitability and Cost Management - The company achieved a gross profit of 3.387 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. The operating costs were 43.580 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year. The main business gross margin was 7.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The company aims to enhance gross margin through technology-driven operational efficiency and refined resource management [15] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 202.418 billion yuan, 217.649 billion yuan, and 233.101 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.7%, 7.5%, and 7.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.614 billion yuan, 7.117 billion yuan, and 7.819 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 7.6%, and 9.9% respectively [16][17]

证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 Q1 业绩超预期，毛利率再创新高 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 5 月 | 20 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 公司公布一季度业绩：25Q1 实现营收 100.2 亿元（yoy+187.1%、qoq -25.6%），归母净利-1.3 亿元（24Q1/24Q4 分别为-10.1/+0.8 亿）。Q1 业绩 超出我们预期（Q1 前瞻中预计 Q1 亏损 5-10 亿），主要系 Q1 销量高增推 动营收同比+187.1%，且 Q1 毛利率达 14.9%再创新高。25 年公司将迎全 球化新车周期，叠加渠道端提前布局和下沉，LEAP3.5 架构进一步集成降 本，以及战略合作也将逐渐贡献收入，我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持高 速增长且毛利率持续提升，25 年有望实现全年盈利。维持买入评级。 1）营收角度：①25Q1 公司汽车交付 87552 辆，同比+162.1%，强力推动 营收同比高增。②产品结构优化：25Q1 价格更高的 C 系列交付 67812 辆， 占比 77.5%（同比提升 5.7pct）， ...

研究报告 Research Report 19 May 2025 零跑汽车 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) 一季度毛利创历史新高，规模效应重塑商业闭环 Record-High Q1 Gross Margin; Scale Effects Reshape the Commercial Flywheel [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 单季毛利创历史新高，实现百亿营收里程碑。零跑汽车 1Q25 业绩 表现强劲，营业收入达 100.2 亿元人民币，同比增长 187.1%，主 要得益于销量同比大增 162%，及产品组合优化带来的单车收入同 比增长。单季毛利率创历史新高，达 14.9%，同比提升 16.3 个百 分点，环比提升 1.6 个百分点，同比改善源于销量规模效应、成本 管理优化及产品组合改善，环比增长则受战略合作推动。归母净 亏损同比大幅收窄至 1.3 亿元，远超市场预期，得益于同比毛利改 善幅度高于费用支出增加，以及战略合作带来的直 ...

20五月2025 盈利/估值。 我们将2025财年净利润预测从-9800万元上调至11800万元。 我们同样认为，理想汽车在2026财年将实现更显著利润增长。基于近期改善的 市场情绪以及理想汽车盈利前景的提升，我们维持买入评级，并将目标价从50. 00港元上调至72.00港元（基于1.5倍2025财年市销率，此前为1.3倍）。我们 对评级和目标价的主要风险包括销量和/或利润率低于预期，以及行业降级。 收益总结 | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入（人民币百万） | 16,747 | 32,164 | 58,993 | 63,046 | 67,905 | | 同比增长率 (%) | 35.2 | 92.1 | 83.4 | 6.9 | 7.7 | | 毛利率 (%) | 0.5 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | | 营业利润（人民币百万元） | (4,377.4) | (3,171.1) | (404.7) | 206.8 | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang, with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, reflecting a strong growth outlook [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 30.1% across the forecast period [5]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x PS, indicating attractive acquisition opportunities [4][13]. - An AI initiative to launch digital twins of renowned TCM doctors is expected to contribute RMB 30 million in annual performance starting in July 2025 [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025 are anticipated to generate over RMB 50 million in revenue [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11]. - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 7.95 billion (approximately USD 1.02 billion) and a free float of 62% [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula producer, with a significant turnaround in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, driven by a recovery in birth rates and a sustained trend towards premiumization [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turnaround - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining a leading market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has increased from 40.2% in 2019 to 76% in 2024, indicating a strong focus on returning value to shareholders [32]. 2. Strategic Focus on Premium Products and Channel Management - The company has shifted its focus to high-end products, with the ultra-premium "Xing Fei Fan" series accounting for 75% of its infant formula revenue in 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [8][36]. - Marketing strategies include high-profile promotions and enhanced consumer engagement, leading to a strong brand presence in the market [49]. - The company has improved its channel management, particularly in the maternal and infant sectors, and has expanded its online presence post-pandemic [8]. 3. Industry Demand Recovery and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, with a projected decline of only 1.2% in 2025, influenced by a rebound in birth rates [8]. - China Feihe holds a 17.5% market share in the infant formula sector, indicating room for growth compared to international competitors [8]. - The company is enhancing its channel control and product offerings, particularly with the "Xing Fei Fan" series, which is expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for China Feihe are projected at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), indicating a potential upside in the stock price of approximately 20%-50% from the current levels, with a target price range of HKD 600-750 [27]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 1800.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 613.29 billion, up 22% year-on-year [2][27]. - The company's strong performance is driven by its leading position in domestic gaming and significant growth in international markets, alongside robust contributions from high-margin businesses such as advertising and cloud services [2][27]. - Tencent's strategic focus on AI technology is enhancing operational efficiency and driving revenue growth across various segments, including gaming and advertising [27]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tencent achieved a core net profit margin of 26.5% and a gross profit margin of 56%, both reaching historical peaks [2][5]. - The company reported a free cash flow of RMB 471 billion and maintained a strong cash reserve of RMB 2052.53 billion, reflecting a healthy financial position [5][27]. - Capital expenditures surged by 91% year-on-year to RMB 274.8 billion, primarily for AI-related infrastructure and model development [5][8]. Gaming Business - Tencent's value-added services revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, with domestic gaming revenue increasing by 24% to RMB 429 billion, driven by record-breaking performances of titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [9][10]. - International gaming revenue reached RMB 166 billion, up 23% year-on-year, contributing 27.9% to total gaming revenue [10][27]. - The integration of AI technology in gaming operations has improved efficiency, with a 40% increase in scene building efficiency and enhanced player experiences through AI-driven features [12][15][16]. Advertising Business - Tencent's marketing services revenue rose by 20% year-on-year to RMB 318.53 billion, driven by explosive growth in video account advertising [18][27]. - The advertising segment is transitioning from "traffic monetization" to "technology empowerment," with significant contributions from AI-driven advertising systems [18][20]. - The company is optimizing its advertising structure, leading to improved conversion rates and increased user engagement across its platforms [19][20]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services reached RMB 549.07 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, benefiting from a recovery in consumer spending and AI-driven enhancements in enterprise solutions [24][26]. - Tencent's cross-border payment services are expanding, with a 45% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, reflecting strong demand from Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia [25][26]. - The integration of AI in cloud services is driving significant growth, with a 60% year-on-year increase in AI-related cloud revenue [25][26]. Future Outlook - Tencent is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the gaming sector over the next two years, supported by the launch of cross-platform titles and a strategic push for international revenue [17][27]. - The company's AI strategy is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth potential, with a projected revenue growth of 8%-10% for 2025 [27].

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨港股公司点评丨贝壳-W（2423.HK） [Table_Title] 产能延续扩张势头，费率管控成效显著 ——贝壳-W 2025 年一季报业绩点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自营平台双轮驱动 GTV 延续较高增速，单季链家与贝联存量房货币化比率均环比提升。盈利 短板家装与租赁贡献利润率均同环比提升，费率管控成效卓著放大潜在盈利弹性。鉴于竞争优 势、相对稀缺、潜在业绩弹性等，短期仍有望享有估值溢价。中长期角度，经纪业务份额仍有 提升空间，家装、租赁可贡献潜在增长，数据资产具备较大价值弹性，后续表现仍值期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 袁佳楠 刘义 蔡方羿 米雁翔 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490520070001 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490520070002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV463 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 贝壳-W（2423.HK） cjz ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24][25] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY25Q4, representing a year-over-year growth of 7%, with notable performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1][8] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 32.6 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year, driven by revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [1][8] - The company announced a dividend of $0.25 per share for FY25, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [1][8] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Taobao Group's revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, growing 9% year-over-year, with a CMR increase of 12% [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao Group was 41.2%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its instant retail capabilities through the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase [2][14] Cloud Computing - Cloud business revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3][15] - AI-related product revenue continued to grow at triple-digit rates for the seventh consecutive quarter [3][15] - The company maintained its three-year CAPEX plan of 380 billion yuan, with a CAPEX of 24.6 billion yuan for the quarter, up 68% year-over-year [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been adjusted to 1,052.0 billion yuan and 1,124.6 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 2% downward adjustment [4][25] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 are 166.9 billion yuan and 182.1 billion yuan, respectively, also reflecting a 3% downward adjustment [4][25] - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][25] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately $6 billion worth of shares in the quarter, totaling about 119 billion yuan for the fiscal year [1][24] - The total shareholder return for FY25 is estimated at around 16.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a shareholder return rate of approximately 5% [1][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 33.10 [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 30.1% and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 11.0% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2026 [5][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x price-to-sales (PS) [4][13]. - An AI initiative is set to launch in July, expected to contribute RMB 30 million to annual performance by creating digital twins of leading TCM specialists [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025, with anticipated revenue exceeding RMB 50 million [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11].