Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing a significant correction, but this is not seen as the end of the bull market. It suggests looking for low-position chips in gold between 4800-4900 USD per ounce [4] - Copper prices have shown considerable volatility, reaching historical highs above 14,000 USD before a sharp correction. The report anticipates a tight supply-demand situation for copper in 2026 due to production forecast downgrades by major companies [5] - The aluminum market is facing weak demand due to high prices, with expectations of a decline in operating rates. The report suggests that buying on dips remains a viable strategy [6] - Tantalum prices are expected to rise due to supply shocks from mining accidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which account for over 15% of global tantalum supply [6] - Tin prices have significantly dropped, influenced by macroeconomic events and supply uncertainties from conflict-affected regions. The report recommends buying on dips within a price range of 300,000 to 350,000 CNY [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 2.6%, ranking fifth among industry sectors [18] Section 2: Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.85%, aluminum by 1.88%, while zinc increased by 0.57%. Precious metals saw COMEX gold drop by 1.94% and silver by 17.94% [19][20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 28,066 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,204 tons. Other metals like zinc and lead also experienced inventory changes [32][34]

上市企业：河钢资源（000923）,海南矿业（601969）,金岭矿业（000655）,大中矿业（001203）,西部矿 业（601168）,鞍钢股份（000898）,太钢不锈（000825）,包钢股份（600010）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国铁矿石行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国铁矿石原矿产量为7935万吨，同比下降4.4%；2025年1-12月 中国铁矿石原矿累计产量为98371.5万吨，累计下降2.8%。 2020-2025年中国铁矿石原矿产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

□本报记者 王鹤静 在2025年四季度的结构性行情下，广发碳中和主题、中欧周期优选、泰信发展主题等一批主动权益基 金，凭借对储能、资源品等热门板块机遇的把握，顺利实现从业绩到规模的转化，成功盘活"小微"产 品。此外，鹏华稳健增利、富国盛利增强等二级债基抓住了"固收+"发展风口，通过进一步明确特色化 资产配置策略，资金关注度明显提高，同样顺利走出"小微"困境。 "小微"产品历来是让各家基金公司颇为头疼的"包袱"。此类产品如何把握市场机遇，盘活产品资源，从 而保护持有人利益？业内分析人士认为，基金管理人可以实施差异化战略，找准市场空白或细分领域， 打造特色产品；同时，加强投资者教育，让投资者了解产品的投资理念与优势、增强信任。而盲目跟风 市场热点、过度依赖短期营销手段等方式则不可取。 成功摆脱"小微"困境 2025年四季度的结构性行情，给公募机构提供了抓热点、做业绩的窗口期。其中，广发碳中和主题、中 欧周期优选、泰信发展主题等一批主动权益基金抓住机会，顺利摆脱生存困境。 "固收+"重整获资金认可 过去一年，在利率下行及权益市场走强的背景下，"固收+"基金颇受资金欢迎。2025年四季度，多只"固 收+"产品抓住发展 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic fluctuations [1] - The overall performance of the steel sector is expected to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by over 10% in the next six months [22] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.1% [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,240 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24% [4] - The price of hot-rolled steel is at 3,250 CNY per ton, with a slight year-to-date decrease of 0.3% [4] Inventory - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 890,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% and a year-to-date increase of 2.1% [6] - The total inventory at steel mills is 388,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 0.6% [6] - The port inventory of iron ore stands at 17,019,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.5% and a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [6] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily molten iron production expected to maintain a steady rate [10] - The report highlights that the steel mills' profitability remains a key factor in the industry's performance [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic fluctuations [1] - The overall performance of the steel sector is expected to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by over 10% in the next six months [21] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.1% [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,240 CNY per ton, with a weekly change of -0.6% and a year-to-date change of -2.4% [4] - The iron ore price index is at 104 USD per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 4.0% [4] Inventory - The total social inventory of the five major steel products is 8.9 million tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% and a year-to-date increase of 21% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 3.88 million tons, with a weekly change of 0% and a year-to-date change of 0.6% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore stands at 17.019 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.5% and a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of the five major steel products is projected to be around 2.5 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be approximately 2.4 million tons [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is a critical indicator of supply dynamics [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The total inventory of steel has increased by 1.70% to 12.7851 million tons [8][12]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week-on-week [12][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The construction sector's demand for steel is expected to stabilize, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [4]. Profitability and Production Margins - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous week [28]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies like Hebei Resources and Erdos, which may benefit from a recovery in demand [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][5] - The industry has been experiencing prolonged micro-profit conditions, and market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [3][5] - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side challenges [5] Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61% [8] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21] - The total inventory of steel reached 12.7851 million tons, increasing by 1.70% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5][12] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [28] - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 792 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton [46] - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 17.022 million tons, an increase of 1.53% [50] - The total shipment volume of major iron ore producers increased, with Brazil's shipment at 4.852 million tons, up 1.06% week-on-week [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5] - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies benefiting from demand recovery trends, recommending Hebei Resources and Erdos among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]