1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyolefins, view the market rationally before the holiday, expecting range - bound fluctuations. The LL main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, and the PP main contract within 6900 - 7200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - For plastics, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and there is strong bottom support [9]. - For PP, there is significant upward pressure on the trend, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [47]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Plastics 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%. The average price of LDPE was 9556.67 yuan/ton (- 0.38% week - on - week), HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton (- 0.57% week - on - week), and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7551.76 yuan/ton (- 0.33% week - on - week). The LLDPE South China basis was 392.76 yuan/ton (- 3.61% week - on - week), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 66 yuan/ton (- 22) [8][10]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On September 26, the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 38 yuan/ton (+ 2), the 5 - 9 month - spread was - 28 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the 9 - 1 month - spread was 66 yuan/ton (- 22) [16]. - **Spot price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics showed various price changes on September 28. For example, in Northeast China, the film price was 7780 yuan/ton (0% change) [18]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.83 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), Brent crude oil at 68.82 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.77 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 20) [21]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton (- 54 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton (- 347 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 81.84% (+ 1.48 percentage points week - on - week), with a weekly output of 64.26 tons (+ 1.84% week - on - week). The maintenance loss this week was 11.37 tons (- 1.15 tons week - on - week) [30]. - **2025 Commissioning Plan**: Many enterprises have completed or are scheduled to commission new PE production capacity in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 613 tons [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PE production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines [35]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 32.86% (+ 6.11% week - on - week), PE packaging film was 52.37% (+ 0.59% week - on - week), and PE pipe was 32.17% (+ 0.34% week - on - week) [8][37]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 37.1%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average [40]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 53.48 tons (- 1.18 tons week - on - week, - 2.16% week - on - week) [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12736 lots (+ 0 lots week - on - week) [44]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6893 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from last week [48]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products in different regions showed various price changes on September 28. For example, the standard drawing material price was 6795 yuan/ton (- 2 day - on - day) [51]. - **Basis**: On September 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6973.33 yuan/ton (- 0.66% week - on - week). The PP basis was 80 yuan/ton (- 26), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 15 yuan/ton (+ 1) [8][55]. - **Month - spread**: On September 26, the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 43 yuan/ton (+ 1), the 5 - 9 month - spread was 28 yuan/ton (- 2), and the 9 - 1 month - spread was 15 yuan/ton (+ 1) [63]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.83 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), Brent crude oil at 68.82 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.77 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 20) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton (- 58.03 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton week - on - week) [69]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52% (+ 0.62 percentage points week - on - week). The weekly output of PP pellets was 77.34 tons (+ 0.83% week - on - week), and that of PP powder was 6.48 tons (+ 5.61% week - on - week) [73]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line and Luoyang Petrochemical's first - line [76]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [8][78]. - **Export - Import Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 546.82 US dollars/ton (- 66.76 US dollars/ton week - on - week), and the export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton (- 3.54 US dollars/ton week - on - week) [83]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 52.03 tons (- 5.50% week - on - week); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% week - on - week, traders' inventory decreased by 0.58% week - on - week, and port inventory increased by 7.61% week - on - week [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 26, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14118 lots (+ 619 lots week - on - week) [95].

烟台万华化学顺酐装置年设计产能20万吨，是全球规模最大的顺酐生产装置之一。目前SynDane催化剂 在装置中运行指标表现优异，尤其是其高收率大幅减少了副产物生成。SynDane的创新设计实现了更低 的压降和更少的能耗，助力客户实现可持续性运营。 据介绍，SynDane 3142 LA是一款采用科莱恩专利的双α形设计的选择性氧化催化剂。该专有双α形状设 计作为一项重大创新，使SynDane 3142与传统环形催化剂差异显著，其独特的物理和化学特性可在顺酐 生产过程中实现高选择性，同时大幅降低压降。该创新设计为生产商带来了显著优势，能以更低的工艺 和能源成本实现更高的生产力。同时，SynDane可强力抑制副产物生成，确保顺酐优良品质，并大幅减 少装置停车时间。凭借其高度稳定性，SynDane具有超过5年的长周期使用寿命。 中化新网讯 9月24日，科莱恩宣布，其SynDane 3142 LA催化剂在烟台万华化学顺酐装置中表现出色。 该催化剂自2024年应用以来，运行绩效优异，实现了其在效率和可持续性方面的承诺。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded under policy impetus and then traded based on the weak fundamental reality [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Q3 2025 Review - OPEC+ production increase expectations compressed the cost side, and new PP plant launches led to weak polyolefin performance. Weak basis and high warehouse receipts suppressed the market, but anti - involution expectations drove a rebound in late July [5] 3.2 Polyolefin 01 Contract New Capacity - **PE New Capacity**: Multiple plants were put into operation in 2025, with different expected increments for different contracts. For example, the 05 - contract expected increment was 258, and the 09 - contract expected increment was 210. Some projects were postponed, like Shandong New Era's project to Q1 2026 [7] - **PP New Capacity**: Many plants were also put into operation in 2025. The 05 - contract expected increment was 418, and the 09 - contract expected increment was 208. Attention should be paid to the 400,000 - ton new capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [7] 3.3 PE Price Data - **Quarterly Data**: From August 1 to September 26, 2025, prices of various PE products changed. For example, linear North China prices decreased by 100 - 120, and upstream prices and profit margins also had corresponding changes [9] - **Weekly Data**: From September 19 to 26, 2025, prices and related indicators such as basis, monthly spreads, and profit margins of PE also changed [11] 3.4 PP Price Data - **Quarterly Data**: From August 1 to September 26, 2025, prices of PP products like拉丝 decreased, and basis, monthly spreads, and profit margins also changed significantly [13] - **Weekly Data**: From September 19 to 26, 2025, PP prices and related indicators showed certain fluctuations [15] 3.5 Olefin Spreads - **Basis**: The basis was weak, reflecting relatively large spot pressure [16][17] - **Monthly Spreads**: Monthly spreads showed weak oscillations [22] - **Non - standard Ratios**: The HD - LL spread weakened, and when HD injection - LL > 300, the probability of FD switching to HD production increased [29] 3.6 PE Supply - Maintenance gradually returned, and production and capacity utilization showed corresponding trends [36] 3.7 PP Supply - Recently, there were more unplanned maintenance, leading to a slight decline in production [43] 3.8 PE Profit - The weighted profit weakened [56] 3.9 PP Profit - The valuation was low [63] 3.10 PE Inventory - Inventory was being reduced [70] 3.11 PP Inventory - Upstream inventory was significantly reduced [77] 3.12 Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipt registration volume was at a high level year - on - year, and high warehouse receipts and a continuously weak basis reflected large spot pressure [84][85] 3.13 Global Spreads - The global ratio was low. China's PE ratio weakened, and PP exports declined [88][89] 3.14 Imports and Exports - **PE**: In 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.0314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. July imports were expected to be low. - **PP**: The import volume in a certain period was 282,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.07%. Imports from September to October were expected to rise slightly [96] 3.15 PE Demand - Demand seasonally recovered but was weak year - on - year. Raw material inventory days were lower year - on - year [97][104] 3.16 PP Demand - Downstream demand was differentiated, with modified PP demand slightly increasing due to auto and home appliance policies. However, peak - season stocking did not show significant growth [111][118] 3.17 Downstream Profits - Downstream profits were recovering, and the year - on - year profit was neutral [126] 3.18 Downstream Demand - The Q2 total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year - on - year, accelerating from Q1. In June, the plastics product export value increased by 7.2% year - on - year [133] 3.19 New Capacity Tracking - **PE New Capacity**: ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant was planned to be put into operation in September, and Guangxi Petrochemical was planned to start trial operation in September and be officially put into operation in mid - October. Shandong New Era was expected to start in Q1 2026 [143] - **PP New Capacity**: Daxie Petrochemical's second - phase 2 was expected to be put into operation in mid - September, and other plants also had their respective schedules [145]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In Q3, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation. After the non - aluminum restocking ended, the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The main downstream, alumina, had high inventory and low restocking willingness. However, due to the planned alumina capacity expansion in Q1 2025, there might be concentrated restocking in Q4 2024, limiting the downside space of caustic soda. The downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked [3]. - **PVC**: In Q3, the PVC market was in a continuous decline. The supply was at a high level with an obvious surplus, and the demand in the peak season was weak. Although exports alleviated some of the surplus pressure, the cost of raw materials provided bottom - level support. In Q4, the cost support should be focused on, and the downside space during the peak season is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Dynamics**: The price of caustic soda fluctuated widely in Q3. Factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes in the main production areas, and the price of liquid chlorine affected the price. The market was worried about the subsequent supply return and the weakening of downstream demand [9]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and Shandong's caustic soda plants continued to accumulate inventory in Q3. As of September 24, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong increased compared with September 17 [22][28]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina capacity to be put into production is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. In Q4 2024, there may be restocking due to the planned capacity expansion in Q1 2025 [30][33]. - **Non - aluminum**: The printing and dyeing operating rate increased seasonally, but the pre - holiday restocking has ended [52]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased in August, but the estimated export profit increased again in September [58]. PVC - **Price and Market Dynamics**: In Q3, the PVC futures and spot prices both declined. The supply - demand relationship lacked positive drivers, and the macro - atmosphere was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the market [65]. - **Profit**: The industry's profit declined quarter - on - quarter in Q3, with both the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production methods facing profit pressure [71]. - **Supply**: The production volume was high in Q3, and the overall operating rate decreased recently. Although there were many maintenance enterprises this week, some have gradually resumed production [81][87]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Profiles and Pipes**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure, and the demand was weak. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices", continued to have a negative impact on demand [94]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new construction area showing weak performance [95]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased in Q3, and the total inventory was at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [102]. - **External Market and Export**: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened [114][120].

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry experienced a decline of 0.95% during the week of September 22-28, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index [1][3] - The oil and petrochemical industry saw a smaller decline of 0.12%, ranking 10th in the same index [1][3] - In terms of product prices, out of 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 43 experienced declines, and 32 remained stable [1][3] Industry Dynamics - The average price of 34% of tracked products increased month-on-month, while 52% decreased, and 14% remained unchanged [1][3] - The top gainers in weekly average prices included liquid ammonia, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, and aniline, while the largest decliners included sulfuric acid and vitamin E [3] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures closing at $65.72 per barrel (up 4.85%) and Brent crude at $70.13 per barrel (up 5.17%) [4] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.50 million barrels per day, an increase of 30,100 barrels compared to the same week last year [4] - Natural gas futures closed at $2.84 per mmbtu, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [5] Price Trends - Vitamin prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand, with vitamin A averaging 60 yuan/kg (down 1.64% week-on-week) and vitamin E at 46 yuan/kg (down 7.07%) [6] - Nylon prices also fell, with PA6 chip prices averaging 9,325 yuan/ton (down 2.36% week-on-week) [7] Investment Recommendations - As of September 28, the price-to-earnings ratio for the basic chemical sector was 25.20, while the oil and petrochemical sector stood at 11.52 [8] - Suggested areas of focus include the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][9] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, the growth of new materials, and the recovery of demand supported by policy initiatives [9]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a rise on September 29, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 0.68% during trading, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Multi-Fluorine and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant gains, with Multi-Fluorine hitting the daily limit and Tianqi Materials rising over 7% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other ministries, issued a new growth plan for the petrochemical industry covering 2025-2026, following a previous plan for 2023-2024 [1][3] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that the new growth plan indicates a shift from an "expansion-focused" development model to one emphasizing optimization and high-quality growth in the chemical sector, presenting good investment opportunities [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.26, indicating a favorable long-term investment position [3] - Debon Securities highlighted that core assets in the chemical sector are entering a long-term value zone, with potential for both valuation and profit recovery [4] Group 3 - Donghai Securities pointed out that domestic policies are frequently addressing supply-side requirements, while international uncertainties in chemical supply chains are increasing due to geopolitical tensions [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, which allows investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [5]

Core Insights - The "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has been jointly released by seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, aiming to stabilize and promote growth in the petrochemical sector [1][3]. Industry Overview - The herbicide industry, particularly in the case of glyphosate and glufosinate, is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, which is expected to help reverse the current downturn in the industry. A meeting is scheduled for October 12, 2025, to discuss maintaining fair competition and promoting high-quality development [2]. - The average market price for glufosinate raw powder is reported to be 44,500 yuan per ton as of September 25, indicating a stable market [2]. - The nylon industry is facing challenges such as insufficient demand, rising inventory, and declining profitability. Industry leaders are encouraged to adopt a cooperative approach to ensure healthy development [2]. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in various sectors such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in the chemical and new materials sectors [4][5]. - Beneficiary stocks in the herbicide sector include Lier Chemical, while in the nylon sector, companies like Huading Co., Shunhua Chemical, and others are highlighted [2][4].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 17th this week, with a decline of 0.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.16 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.91 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated growth in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was -0.95%, ranking it 17th among all sectors, while the top three performing sectors were power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [22][23] - The top three individual stocks in the chemical sector this week were Bluefeng Biochemical (61.16%), Shangwei New Materials (44.81%), and Huarsoft Technology (31.83%) [28] Key Industry Dynamics - A new plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry was released by seven departments, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [34] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, digital empowerment, and environmental sustainability in the petrochemical sector [34] Investment Opportunities - Synthetic biology is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biological being recommended for investment [4][8] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to upcoming quota policies and stable demand growth from the air conditioning and cold chain markets [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries [6][8] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to enhance the value of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with companies like AkzoNobel being recommended for attention [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as supply tightens and demand increases due to rising agricultural planting intentions [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" for the petrochemical industry has raised expectations, focusing on enhancing technological innovation, expanding effective investment, and fostering market demand [8] - The green low-carbon industry, particularly green polyester, is expected to experience rapid growth due to new technologies and significant market potential [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report favors companies that have strategically positioned themselves in the green polyester sector, such as Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy). Other recommended stocks include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy), and Huayi Group (600623, Buy). Additionally, companies in the pesticide formulation segment like Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy), Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), and Hailier (603639, Buy) are also highlighted [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant oversupply, making rapid recovery through market-driven policies challenging. However, the long-term outlook for the industry is improving, with lower valuations for leading chemical stocks providing good investment opportunities [8] - The green low-carbon sector, including green methanol, bio-aviation fuel, and green polyester, is gaining market attention due to its vast market space and the need for sustainable development. Companies that capitalize on these trends are expected to achieve rapid growth [8] Recent Developments - The recent "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" emphasizes controlling new refining capacity and supporting key products in electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, while also fostering new application scenarios in emerging fields like renewable energy and low-altitude economy [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent joint release of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" by seven departments aims to enhance the quality and reasonable growth of the petrochemical industry, focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, and cooperation [6][7] - The plan targets an average annual growth of over 5% in the added value of the petrochemical industry from 2025 to 2026, with significant improvements in economic benefits and technological innovation capabilities [7] - The chemical industry in China is expected to transition from a "money-consuming beast" to a "cash cow" due to abundant operating cash flow and a slowdown in global capacity expansion [6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance of -2.5% over the last month, 15.5% over the last three months, and 35.1% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has performed at 2.2%, 15.3%, and 28.3% respectively [4] Investment Suggestions - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for products like chromium salts and phosphates 3. New materials with high growth potential in sectors like electronic chemicals and fluorinated liquids 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Chemical [9][10][12] Key Company Tracking - The report tracks key companies and their earnings forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with recommendations to buy for companies like Hengyi Petrochemical and New Oriental Chemical [31] Market Observations - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from increased demand and a recovery in market conditions, particularly in the context of fiscal policy adjustments in China and the US [28]