Core Viewpoint - The potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore could create a significant player in the mining sector, valued at approximately $260 billion, enhancing their capabilities in copper and other metals markets amid rising demand and limited supply growth [7]. Group 1: Merger Discussions - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a possible merger, which have gained traction following BHP Group's decision to rule out a competing bid [5]. - The merger talks reflect a broader trend of consolidation in the mining sector as companies seek to manage rising costs and tighter capital conditions [2][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for copper is increasing due to its applications in power grids, electric vehicles, and renewable energy systems, while supply growth is constrained by underinvestment and higher development costs [3]. - Copper prices have surged over 25% in the past three months, reaching record levels above $13,000 per tonne, with low inventories and rising production costs [10]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages - Glencore's strong commodity marketing and trading operations would provide Rio Tinto with capabilities it currently lacks, enhancing its competitive position in the copper market [1][11]. - The merger could allow for the separation of Glencore's coal assets, potentially unlocking shareholder value by focusing on a cleaner metals business [8][9]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - Any merger would face scrutiny from regulators in Australia and Europe, particularly regarding copper concentration and Glencore's trading business [15]. Group 5: Operational Differences - The operational models of Rio Tinto and Glencore differ significantly, with Glencore focusing on trading and risk management, while Rio emphasizes long-life mining assets [16].

Market Overview - The commodity market has shown significant differentiation since 2025, with precious metals like gold and silver leading the market, increasing by 63% and 111% respectively, while energy and agricultural products have underperformed, with crude oil down 16% and agricultural indices only slightly up by 3% [5][12] - As of early 2026, metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum continue to rise, with smaller metals like nickel and tin experiencing sharp increases, indicating a clear rotation in the market and heightened investor sentiment regarding the potential onset of a new super cycle in commodities [5][12] Historical Super Cycles - Since 1850, there have been five historical super cycles in commodities, characterized by a pattern of "bull short, bear long," with the average upward phase lasting about 13 years and a price increase of approximately 75%, while the downward phase averages 21 years with a price decline of about 47% [5][13][21] - The first cycle (1850-1898) was driven by the spread of the Industrial Revolution and global infrastructure development, while the second cycle (1899-1932) was influenced by the Second Industrial Revolution and World War I, leading to price increases in strategic resources like copper and oil [14][16][21] Bullish Logic: Financial Attributes and Industrial Trends - The bullish argument is primarily based on the safe-haven value and industrial demand, with global monetary easing and fiscal expansion contributing to a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment across major economies [23][25] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization has positioned commodities as a preferred option for sovereign nations to hedge against credit devaluation, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves, indicating a potential rise in commodity ETF allocations [25][30] Bearish Views: Demand Slowdown and Policy Constraints - Bearish concerns focus on the demand side, highlighting a lack of new engines for growth, particularly as emerging economies like India exhibit "dematerialization" growth, leading to lower metal consumption per unit of GDP [64] - Central banks are increasingly prioritizing inflation control, which may lead to a tightening response to rapid commodity price increases, potentially suppressing overall commodity market space [64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of zinc has increased, and the bullish sentiment has risen and then fallen, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Supply - side disturbances have increased. Geopolitical risks in Iran and heavy rain in Australia have affected the stability of zinc ore supply. The TC upward space this year may be lower than last year, and zinc prices have a certain upward elasticity. In the short - term, if the capital rotation trading of non - ferrous metals ends, zinc prices may have a phased adjustment, but the downside space is relatively limited. Pay attention to mid - term opportunities to try long on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,750, with a weekly increase of 3.25%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,405, with a night - session decline of 1.39%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,207.5, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 368,615, an increase of 225,388 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 142,274, an increase of 65,641. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,389, an increase of 5,157, and the open interest was 228,263, a decrease of 5,388 [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 5,316 to 33,558, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,459 to 76,311, social inventory decreased by 100 to 118,400, LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 to 106,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories have remained stable [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical low. Mine enterprise profits have recovered and are at a historical high, smelting profits have recovered but are still at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable and are at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The smelting operating rate has continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanized, die - cast zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have all declined [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium has fluctuated and declined. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with Singapore's remaining stable, Antwerp's rising, and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high and turning to a C structure [18][23]. - **Price Spread**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [25]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory has remained relatively stable, the注销仓单 ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low, the bonded area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [30][36][38]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period in history [39]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore is at a medium level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has increased [42][43]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter's finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [49][50]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the waste steel consumption of 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide is provided [53][54][55][56]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [63]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [74]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Information on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, power prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries is provided [76][77][78][79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, and tin and nickel futures also fell significantly. Different futures varieties showed distinct trends due to various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical events, and policy changes [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed a pattern of more declines than increases. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, glass rose over 1%; lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, tin dropped over 6%, nickel, butadiene rubber, fuel oil, caustic soda, and SC crude oil dropped over 3%, and apples, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and copper dropped over 2%. In the stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract dropped 0.29%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract dropped 0.64%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract rose 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract rose 0.25%. In the bond futures, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.05%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.01%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract dropped 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, hot - rolled coil 2605, rebar 2605, and rapeseed oil 2605 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, silver 2604, and gold 2602 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Cu)**: Copper futures opened low and moved lower. Supply - side issues included difficulties for smelters to profit from long - term contracts, and by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming major profit sources. The refined copper output was expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore might affect the global copper supply. Demand from end - users was strong, but the copper products sector was cautious. Copper inventory increased significantly. Although the market's expectation of copper being included in the tariff scope weakened, copper futures were still prone to rise due to tight supply [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and hit the daily limit down. In December 2025, the output was 99,000 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase. The weekly inventory decreased slightly. The demand from energy - storage batteries remained strong, but the market was pressured by the expected increase in supply from the recycling end. The government's adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for batteries might impact the market. The strong situation of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, but the market was volatile [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude and gasoline inventories. US crude production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the US - India - Russia oil trade relationship affected the market. The market was worried about demand, and the supply was in an oversupply situation. The price was expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate increased slightly this week, but the expected production in January 2026 decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream construction was restricted by funds and weather. The inventory rate of asphalt refineries continued to rise. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela affected the supply of raw materials for domestic asphalt production. The price was expected to fluctuate, and an inverse spread strategy was recommended [14][16]. - **PP**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased slightly. The PP enterprise operating rate remained stable at a relatively low level. The cost decreased due to the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The downstream demand was limited before the Spring Festival. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The downstream PE operating rate decreased, and the demand from the agricultural film sector continued to decline. The cost decreased with the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price was stable. The PVC operating rate was basically stable, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export orders decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy might stimulate a rush - to - export phenomenon. The 03 - 05 contracts were expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The supply from imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. The inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. The demand from steel mills and coking enterprises was expected to increase during the winter storage period, but the upward momentum was limited due to weak macro - sentiment. The price was expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The market trading was not active, and the downstream was resistant to high prices. The daily output was expected to remain above 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand increased, and the industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine factories also rose. The inventory decreased. The price was expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The sentiment in the copper market remains low. The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and continued to decline during the day. Although the supply is tight, the copper futures are still prone to rising and difficult to fall. The terminal demand maintains strong growth, but the copper products sector is cautious overall. After the copper price correction, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The copper smelters cannot obtain profits through long - term contracts, and in the spot market, it remains weak and stable. By - products such as sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined - scrap copper price difference has weakened but is still abnormal. The substitution advantage of scrap copper is significant, but the downstream demand is weak, and scrap copper transactions are also blocked. In January 2026, the refined copper production is expected to decline, and the merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may increase their control of the global copper resource supply to 15%, highlighting the tight supply expectation [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and declined during the day - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 115 yuan/ton. On January 15, 2026, the LME official price is 13145 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is + 60 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of January 15, the latest data shows that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 US cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 160400 tons, a decrease of 2300 tons from the previous period. As of January 15, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 105600 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 141100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 538700 short tons, an increase of 5130 short tons from the previous period [9]

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Shanghai copper market opened higher but declined during the day. The copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, with the spot market remaining weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit sources. The refined copper output is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. Terminal demand shows strong growth, but the copper products sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. Trump's decision weakens the expectation of refined copper being included in the tariff scope, and the copper price increase has slowed, but the probability of a sharp decline is low [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and then declined during the day. The refined copper output is expected to drop in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 new smelter delaying its launch. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may control 15% of the global copper supply. Terminal demand grows strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious. Copper inventories have increased significantly, and the copper price increase has slowed, with a low probability of a sharp decline [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper opened higher and declined during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 160 yuan/ton. On January 14, 2026, the LME official price was 13,240 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +95 US dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of January 12, the spot TC was - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound [6] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 162,700 tons, an increase of 13,378 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons. LME copper inventory is 141,600 tons, an increase of 75 tons. COMEX copper inventory is 535,800 short tons, an increase of 4,090 short tons [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on January 15, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with some metals and agricultural products rising, while some precious metals and chemical products falling; stock index futures and treasury bond futures showed mixed performances; different futures varieties have their own supply - demand situations, affected by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events, and their price trends are also different [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 15, domestic futures main contracts declined more than they rose. Shanghai tin rose over 8%, Shanghai nickel over 4%, stainless steel (SS) over 3%, eggs and Shanghai zinc over 2%; palladium and platinum fell over 4%, bottle chips, caustic soda, palm oil, PX, and soda ash fell over 2%, short - fibers and PTA fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures had mixed performances. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:41 on January 15, Shanghai zinc 2603, stainless steel 2603, and Shanghai lead 2603 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2603, Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603, and Shanghai gold 2602 had capital outflows [5][6] 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and went low, falling during the day. Supply - side: smelters rely on by - products for profit, refined copper production is expected to decline in January. Demand - side: terminal demand grows strongly, but copper products are cautious, and inventory accumulates significantly. The probability of a deep decline in the copper market is low [8] 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and went lower. In December 2025, production increased by 3.0% month - on - month, and weekly inventory decreased slightly. Demand for energy - storage batteries is strong, but policies such as export tax rebate adjustments and trading fees may affect the market. The demand increase from the export rush is expected to guide the market to be strong in the long - term [10] 3.2.3. Crude Oil - OPEC + will maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. US crude inventory accumulates, and the market is worried about demand. The supply is in an oversupply pattern, but geopolitical risks such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11][13] 3.2.4. Asphalt - Supply: the start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in January 2026 decreased. Demand: downstream start - up rates mostly declined, with rigid demand weakening and winter - storage demand releasing. The situation in Venezuela affects raw material supply, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5. PP - As of the week of January 9, the downstream start - up rate decreased. The enterprise start - up rate was about 81%. The cost was affected by geopolitical events, with new production capacity put into operation. The downstream demand was limited, and the upward space was expected to be limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6. Plastic - The start - up rate was about 86% on January 15. As of the week of January 9, the downstream start - up rate increased slightly, with new production capacity put into operation. The downstream demand was weakening, and the upward space was expected to be limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price was stable, the supply - side start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was low. Exports were average, and inventory was high. Before the export tax rebate is cancelled in April 2026, there may be an export rush, and the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20] 3.2.8. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and went low, closing down. The supply of imported coal decreased, and domestic production increased. Mines de - stocked, while coking enterprises and steel mills increased inventory. The price is expected to be high and strong [22] 3.2.9. Urea - Urea opened high and went high, being strong during the day. The daily output increased, and the downstream demand improved. The inventory decreased. The upward pace slowed down, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term and adjust at a high level in the short - term [23][24]

分析认为，短期多重"降温"信号共振，令金属市场有对近期涨幅修正的可能。但短期波动不改金属板块 长期易涨难跌的格局。 新华财经北京1月15日电（吴郑思） 2026年以来，金属市场再迎多头狂欢。在供应紧张、人工智能及新 能源远期需求预期等一系列因素作用下，以白银、锡、镍、铜等为代表的金属板块多头热情高涨，国际 银价先后突破93美元／盎司关口，锡价本月飙升超35%、沪锡一度突破44万元／吨关口，镍也在不到一 个月时间内完成了对此前一年半下跌行情的修正。 不过，随着短期内部分利多因素发生变化，15日早盘，银锡镍等强势金属不同程度迎来回调。盘面上 看，截至15日早盘收盘时，国际银价大幅回落近6%，低点至87美元/盎司下方，伦铜回落至13000美元/ 吨以下，锡镍铝等主要金属也均自隔夜高点回落。国内沪银由涨转跌，铜铝锌镍锡等也不同程度收窄涨 幅。 短期多重"降温"信号共振 事实上，近期市场多个层面都在释放出"降温"的信号。 从宏观层面看，国内方面，1月14日，沪深北三大交易所同步发布通知，宣布经中国证监会批准，将投 资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从现行的80%上调至100%。通知明确表明，此举旨在适当 降低杠杆水 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Uncertainties such as Fed independence, tariff issues, and geopolitical risks are high. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new high, and the long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged [1][2][3] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, and the US is siphoning global copper resources. Short - term copper prices are in high - level oscillation, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic due to supply shortages and new demand [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and market sentiment dominates prices. Zinc prices are rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions and gradually take profits [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: With overseas production cuts and domestic inventory accumulation, downstream demand is differentiated. Aluminum prices are short - term bullish [1][10][12] - **Nickel**: Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore quota, and domestic nickel and stainless - steel inventories have decreased. Nickel prices are in a short - term rebound [1][14][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is difficult to increase rapidly in the short - term, and demand is seasonally weak. Prices are in high - level oscillation [1][18][20] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: Long - term holding. Tariff decisions are pending, the Fed's independence is damaged, and geopolitical issues are escalating. Geopolitical premium trading continues, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining long - term strategic value [1] - **Market Situation**: Fed officials have different views on policies, US economic data is moderate, tariff decisions are delayed, and geopolitical risks are high. Precious metals have reached new highs [2][3] Silver - **Core View**: Long - term holding. There has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years, and global large - scale fiscal policies are beneficial to silver in the long - term [1] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is in high - level consolidation [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, and the US is siphoning global copper resources. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term high - level oscillation, external - strong and internal - weak. Hold existing long positions and take profits, and wait for a full correction to enter the market. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating strongly [7][8] - **Industry Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026, and domestic production increases are uncertain. Demand from traditional industries is weak, but emerging industries' demand is growing [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and market sentiment drives prices up. Hold long positions and gradually take profits. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure during the rebound [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Aluminum production is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand is differentiated. Alumina supply is in surplus [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot social inventory [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless - steel prices are slightly rebounding [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore production target, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are at a high level. Stainless - steel inventory is decreasing, and production is expected to increase slightly [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 has risen and then fallen [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Supply is difficult to increase rapidly in the short - term, and demand is seasonally weak. A short - term inventory inflection point may slow down the price increase [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [15500 - 165000] [21]