Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) showing a net inflow of funds and a significant increase in its scale, indicating ongoing investor interest in this sector [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:10 AM, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is down by 1.96%, but has seen a net subscription of 37 million units, amounting to over 68 million yuan [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has recorded net inflows on four occasions, totaling 449 million yuan, with the latest fund size exceeding 5.8 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with key stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt experiencing declines of over 3% and 2% respectively [5]. - The sector's performance is influenced by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have recently reached new highs [2]. Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - Analysts from Dongfang Securities are focusing on strategic opportunities within the industrial metals sector, particularly copper, which is expected to benefit from supply constraints and improving smelting fees [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and the demand for strategic metals are expected to enhance copper's position as a critical asset in the current economic landscape [4]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold and copper content," with copper accounting for 34% and gold for 12% of its index, making it a leading choice among similar funds [8]. - The ETF's performance has been driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a significant increase in its index's cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, while its price-to-earnings ratio has decreased by 52% over the same period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a comprehensive pullback, with significant declines in companies such as China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten, while the non-ferrous mining ETF has seen a net inflow of over 100 million in the past six trading days, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current market volatility [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) has seen a decline of 3.19%, but has attracted over 4 million in funds during the downturn, with a total net inflow exceeding 1 billion in the last six trading days [1]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a remarkable one-year growth of 124.26%, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [3][4]. - Historical performance shows the non-ferrous mining index has a ten-year cumulative increase of 172.62% and an annualized return of 10.87%, indicating strong resilience compared to other indices [10][12]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the gold price may stabilize and rise, presenting a reallocation opportunity, while the silver market faces challenges due to uneven regional inventories and pending tariff policies [17][18]. - Ever since 2025, the emphasis on "critical mineral resources" has significantly increased in Europe and the U.S., with procurement plans from the U.S. and Australia indicating that cobalt, tantalum, antimony, and gallium will account for notable percentages of global production in 2024 [18][19]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in strategic metals storage, particularly those with supply chain risks concentrated in specific regions, such as copper, lithium, and nickel, as well as metals essential for energy transition and AI applications [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a collective pullback in major indices, with significant declines in copper and gold prices, while emerging sectors like AI data centers are driving long-term demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, major indices have collectively retreated, with copper prices experiencing a sharp drop and gold prices slightly declining [1]. - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), fell by 0.2%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.31%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) dropped by 2.34% [1]. - The trading volume was active, with a turnover of 216 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.49%, indicating potential fund accumulation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand Drivers - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 10.774 billion yuan [1]. - Emerging fields like AI data centers are becoming core demand drivers for non-ferrous metals, with significant reliance on copper and aluminum for power and cooling systems [1]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported in the long term due to "AI capital expenditure growth" and global energy transition trends [1]. Group 3: Industrial Product Price Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts have been dampened following statements from Trump, leading to weakened financial support for industrial product prices [2]. - Increased domestic inventory and lower downstream processing rates have contributed to negative feedback for major industrial products like copper and aluminum [2]. - Despite short-term volatility, strong support for industrial products is anticipated due to internal and external policy expectations, with some inventories at historically low levels [2]. Group 4: ETF Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2].

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced a historic breakthrough on January 19, with spot gold prices rising over 2% to surpass $4,690 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,690.88 per ounce, setting a new record [1] - The copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rebounded, reported at $12,935 per ton, an increase of $132 per ton from the previous trading day, ending a two-day decline [1] - Citic Securities predicts that the asset environment in 2026 may show characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, with gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce and copper averaging $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and electricity demand [1] Group 2 - Long-term structural changes are occurring in the global base metals market, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns, with strong and sustained demand for copper and aluminum from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [2] - North Rare Earth announced an expected net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 116.67% to 134.60%, highlighting the high-quality development of the rare earth industry [2] - The global strategic importance of rare earth resources is increasing, with the industry entering a new era of high-quality development, driven by demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and humanoid robots, and an anticipated widening supply-demand gap starting in 2026 [3] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which selects 50 listed companies from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of the industry [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, North Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Ganfeng Lithium, Shandong Gold, Yun Aluminum, Zhongjin Gold, and Cangge Mining [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the strong trend in nickel prices due to tightened supply expectations from Indonesia [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4]. - Key price movements show significant increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical factors and changes in monetary policy [3][20]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt remains robust, with prices for lithium compounds experiencing substantial increases [3][16]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.60 percentage points [4]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 6.86%, while aluminum decreased by 0.57%. Energy metals rose by 1.47%, and small metals increased by 4.31% [8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed varied changes: copper decreased by 1.50%, aluminum by 0.06%, while zinc increased by 1.76% and tin by 5.32% [12]. - Lithium prices surged, with lithium hydroxide and carbonate increasing by 12.14% and 12.32%, respectively [16]. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold are highlighted for their strong earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Shagang [19]. Metal Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is under pressure, with domestic social inventory increasing to 321,000 tons, while demand from the wire and cable sector shows a slight recovery [33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to support long-term price increases [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center is likely to shift upward, recommending investments in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends, despite a balanced supply-demand situation [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend supported by central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings [8] - Copper prices are under short-term pressure due to macro sentiment adjustments, but long-term demand from AI and power grid construction remains strong [10] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility due to mixed macro signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [10] - Energy metals like lithium are seeing inventory reductions, with expectations of front-loaded demand due to changes in export tax policies [11] - Rare earth prices are recovering, driven by policy support and pre-holiday stocking demand [11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold increasing by 3.17% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram and COMEX gold rising by 2.23% to 4,601.10 USD per ounce [8] - Silver prices surged, with SHFE silver up 22.82% to 22,483 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 13.37% to 89.95 USD per ounce [9] Copper - Copper prices have seen a slight decline, with SHFE copper down 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton and LME copper down 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton [10] - Supply remains tight, with significant labor actions expected to impact production [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with SHFE aluminum down 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton [10] - The processing operating rate has slightly increased to 60.2% [10] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory is decreasing, with demand expected to strengthen due to changes in export tax policies [11] - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supply, leading to higher prices [11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [11]

Group 1 - Nvidia has corrected its technical paper regarding copper demand in data centers, adjusting the copper busbar usage for a traditional 1 GW data center from 500,000 tons to 200 tons, indicating a significant downward revision in copper demand expectations [1] - The previous estimate of 500,000 tons per GW was identified as a substantial error, and the current revision only accounts for busbar copper usage, excluding other components, leading to a lack of precise market estimates for copper usage per GW [1] - Recent copper price declines are attributed to liquidity and trading noise, with the actual bearish impact on market logic being limited, as the long-term narrative remains favorable for copper [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 securities from the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the strategic opportunities in industrial metals, suggesting a focus on this sector as the global trend of de-globalization deepens and the technological attributes of strategic metals increase. With copper prices approaching 100,000, it is seen as a favorable time for strategic allocation in industrial metals [9][14]. - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked basic material in the context of de-globalization, with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices higher. The report notes that the recent decline in zinc smelting fees indicates ongoing supply tightness, and there is optimism regarding demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [9][14]. - The copper sector is viewed positively, with short-term price fluctuations not affecting the upward trend in equities. The report anticipates improvements in copper prices and smelting fees due to supply constraints and upcoming mine restarts [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [9][16]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests focusing on industrial metals as the market sentiment cools, with potential investment opportunities emerging [9][14]. - Zinc is identified as a critical material with a positive outlook due to supply-demand improvements and infrastructure needs in developing regions [9][14]. - Copper is expected to see price stability and profit improvements for smelting companies as major mines plan to resume operations [9][15]. - Aluminum is projected to experience steady growth in profitability, supported by supply chain advantages and rising demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [9][16]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [17]. - Steel production has seen a slight decrease, with rebar consumption increasing by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22][17]. - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory slightly increasing [24]. - Steel prices have generally seen a minor increase, with the overall price index rising by 0.15% [36]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [40]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting the increasing demand and supply dynamics in the new energy metals market [49][50].

Group 1: Lithium Market - Lithium battery demand remains strong despite the off-season, with a reversal in supply and demand for lithium carbonate, leading to an upward price trend [4] - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate rose by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton [4] - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate rose by 1.94% to 146,200 CNY/ton, although there was a limit down on Friday due to increased regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking by speculative funds [4] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices may experience high volatility in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME copper down by 0.50% [2] - Significant inventory increases were noted, with LME copper inventory rising by 3.31% to 144,000 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory up by 17.20% to 321,000 tons [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, indicating a potential demand recovery [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are expected to face high volatility due to inventory accumulation, with domestic aluminum inventory increasing by 29.24% to 185,900 tons [3] - The price of alumina fell by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices rose by 0.83% to 24,200 CNY/ton [3] - The demand for aluminum may increase due to the "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the home appliance sector, driven by high copper prices [3] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The cobalt raw material supply remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may affect the timing of raw material availability in the domestic market [5] - The structural tightness in cobalt raw materials is expected to persist, supporting upward price momentum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the increasing importance of strategic metals (copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, rare earths) due to supply disruptions and the limitations in production capacity in China and abroad [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals worth AUD 1.2 billion, with AUD 185 million allocated for necessary mineral reserves, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [2] - The European Commission approved a resource revival action plan to raise EUR 3 billion for supply chain strategies, establishing a platform to support critical material reserves [2] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to procure USD 500 million in cobalt, USD 245 million in antimony, USD 100 million in tantalum, and USD 45 million in scandium [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Strategic Metals - The focus on strategic metal storage in the U.S. and Australia presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium from South America [3] - The rapid development of AI and energy transition is expected to drive demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, although supply constraints exist for these metals [4] - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are facing tightening supply, with production declines attributed to lower resource grades and regulatory controls [5] Group 3: Supply Concentration and Constraints - Copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply is highly concentrated in South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, with Chile and Peru accounting for 35% of global copper production and the Democratic Republic of Congo producing 76% of global cobalt [4] - The rapid growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, but supply for these metals is constrained [4] - Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for military applications, but their production has decreased due to resource management practices and regulatory measures [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For copper, recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [5] - For aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum is recommended, with China Aluminum as a focus [5] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is recommended, with attention to Liqin Resources and Shengtun Mining [5] - For tungsten, focus on China Tungsten High-tech [5] - For tin, Xiyang Tin Industry is recommended, with interest in Xingye Silver Tin [5] - For antimony, Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted, and for rare earths, Northern Rare Earth is recommended with a focus on China Rare Earth [5]