Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings are as follows: - Copper: Mid - term outlook is "oscillation" [6] - Alumina: Mid - long term outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [8] - Aluminum: Short - term outlook is "strong oscillation", mid - long term consumption may face pressure [9] - Aluminum alloy: Short - term outlook is "spot is weak in the off - season, the market follows aluminum and is strong", mid - long term outlook is that "spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound" [12] - Zinc: Outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [13] - Lead: Outlook is "oscillation" [17] - Nickel: Short - term outlook is "wide - range oscillation", mid - long term can "short on rebounds" [23] - Stainless steel: Short - term outlook is "range oscillation" [25] - Tin: Outlook is "oscillation" [27] Report's Core View - The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weakening demand are intertwined, and the non - ferrous metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short and medium term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventory, and weakening demand are intertwined. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin can be cautiously considered. In the long term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies for some varieties with supply surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **View**: The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and copper prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: US May labor market data is better than expected; global copper mining giant Antofagasta starts mid - year negotiations; China's electrolytic copper production increases; spot premiums decline; copper inventory decreases; Glencore buys Russian copper; Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. - **Logic**: Overseas economy may continue to weaken. Supply is tight due to falling processing fees and smelter maintenance. Demand weakens in the off - season, and there is a risk of tariff increase on copper. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventory supports prices. Copper may oscillate at a high level in the short term [6] Alumina - **View**: The number of warehouse receipts is at a low level, and the monthly spread of the alumina futures market widens. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; shipping freight increases; warehouse receipts decrease. - **Logic**: In the short and medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but warehouse receipt depletion is obvious. In the long term, events have limited impact without further fermentation. - **Outlook**: Mid - long term outlook is oscillation on the weak side. Short - term positive spreads or shorting can be considered after the far - month contract rises further [7][8] Aluminum - **View**: Low inventory and high premiums lead to high - level oscillation of aluminum prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; inventory decreases; geopolitical events occur; new tariff policies are introduced. - **Logic**: Short - term geopolitical and squeezing risks push up prices. Mid - long term consumption may face pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and mid - long term consumption may be under pressure. Short - term positive spreads can be considered, and mid - long term shorting on rallies is recommended [9][10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The transaction prices of scrap aluminum and spot increase, and the aluminum alloy futures market rises. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; relevant policies are introduced; car companies make payment commitments. - **Logic**: Short - term pressure in the off - season is high, but low inventory of electrolytic aluminum drives prices up. Mid - long term demand is expected to recover seasonally. - **Outlook**: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, and the market follows aluminum and is strong. Mid - long term spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound [10][12] Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate on the weak side. - **Analysis**: Spot premiums are different in different regions; inventory increases; a mine's production plan is announced. - **Logic**: Macro uncertainty exists. Supply is loose, and demand is in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and prices may decline further. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate on the weak side [12][13] Lead - **View**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices rise; lead ingot prices increase; inventory changes; some enterprises are in maintenance or production reduction. - **Logic**: Spot premiums narrow slightly; supply tightens; demand is in the off - season but with some positive factors. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][14][17] Nickel - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories change; relevant investment and cooperation projects are announced. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. Industry fundamentals weaken marginally. Inventory accumulates, and prices are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, mid - long term shorting on rebounds [17][23] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless steel futures market oscillates. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decrease; spot premiums exist; production data changes. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices decline, and steel mills are under pressure. Supply and demand may weaken, and inventory accumulates slightly. - **Outlook**: Short - term range oscillation [24][25] Tin - **View**: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipts and inventory increase; spot prices rise; high prices suppress restocking. - **Logic**: Supply disturbances in the main production areas subside. Without obvious driving forces, prices oscillate. Supply is tight, but upward elasticity is limited. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [25][27] 2.行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

Group 1 - The sixth Qingdao Summit for Multinational Company Leaders gathered 570 leaders from 465 multinational companies across 43 countries and regions, aiming to promote higher levels of mutually beneficial cooperation [3][4] - The summit serves as a high-end platform for multinational companies to invest in and deepen their presence in China, with a focus on the message that China is an ideal, safe, and promising investment destination [4][5] - The summit attracted 135 Fortune 500 companies and 330 industry leaders, with 23% of participants being first-time attendees, indicating a stronger appeal compared to previous years [5][6] Group 2 - The summit featured various activities emphasizing the theme of linking the world and achieving win-win cooperation, including direct dialogues between multinational company leaders and global media [7][8] - A total of 2,142 key investment projects from various provinces were presented, showcasing opportunities for foreign investment in China [7][8] - The Chinese government is committed to creating a stable, safe, and open business environment, with initiatives to accelerate foreign investment in sectors like cloud computing and biotechnology [10][12] Group 3 - The summit highlighted China's role as a driving force for global economic recovery, providing certainty and innovation opportunities for foreign companies [12][15] - Examples of successful foreign investments in China include the construction of a 600,000-ton lyocell fiber project by Singapore's Golden Eagle Group and AstraZeneca's continuous investment in Qingdao [13][15] - Shandong province has established itself as a significant hub for foreign investment, with over 19,000 foreign enterprises and 236 Fortune 500 companies operating in the region [13][15]

Report Title - "Excess Gradually Appears, Prices Under Pressure, Low Inventory Provides Structural Strategies - 2025 Zinc Futures Semi - annual Market Outlook" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Based on the excess pattern of zinc elements, zinc prices in the second half of 2025 may be high at first and then low. The main operating range of SHFE zinc is estimated to be 20,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 2,400 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [2][79]. - Supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. As profit repair drives the restart of high - cost mines and new and expanded mines realize increments, the loosening of zinc ore will continue to be transmitted to smelting volume expansion, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots will gradually emerge, causing prices to fall from high levels [2][79]. - Low inventory levels may limit the smooth decline of prices. Attention can be paid to inter - period positive spreads during traditional consumption peak seasons and internal - external reverse spreads [2][79]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Zinc Price Trend Review - In H1 2025, both domestic and overseas zinc prices showed a step - by - step downward trend. Macro factors had a great impact on price elasticity, monthly spreads, and internal - external ratios [7]. - At the beginning of the year, the liquidity risk of internal and external positions was lifted, premiums were reversed, and some funds priced in the annual supply increment expectation, causing zinc prices to fall continuously from the 25,000 yuan/ton mark [7]. - On February 1, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs, which led to a decline in zinc prices during the Spring Festival. Then the tariff policy was postponed, and market sentiment recovered [7]. - From February to March, zinc prices were in a narrow - range shock pattern due to weak supply and demand [7]. - In early April, zinc prices fell again due to the unexpected intensity of US tariffs, reaching the lowest point so far [7]. - Since mid - April, zinc prices gradually returned to fundamental pricing. Low inventory and supply increment expectations led to a tangled price consolidation [8]. 2. Supply - side As Expected to Increase While Demand Remains Stable, Supply - Demand Excess Gradually Appears 2.1 Zinc Ore Profit Recovery Brings Restart and New Expansion, Transmitted to Smelter Increment - The increase in mine profits drives the restart of high - cost mines. As of Q1 2025, the 90 - percentile cost line of zinc ore is around 2,000 US dollars/ton, and the mine profit margin has reached 46% [19]. - Expansion projects are releasing production capacity in an orderly manner. It is initially estimated that the zinc ore increment in 2025 is 350,000 tons, considering various factors [23]. - Domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, good profits, and production capacity increments, with a clear supply increment expectation. However, the smelting increment from mid - year to Q3 may limit the upward trend of TC [24]. - Overseas smelters are more sensitive to costs and may reduce production. This will affect the internal - external fundamentals and bring internal - external structural arbitrage opportunities [36]. 2.2 Domestic Consumption is Expected to Remain Stable, Overseas Slightly Increase - The real estate sector is expected to continue to drag down zinc consumption by - 18% this year, but the marginal impact of the reduction is decreasing year by year as its proportion in zinc consumption has declined significantly [40]. - The investment structure of infrastructure has changed, and the growth rate of zinc consumption in infrastructure is expected to be about 5% [49]. - In the United States, zinc consumption is expected to continue to increase positively. India's zinc demand is expected to expand at a growth rate of over 5% [52][56]. 3. Multiple Factors Cause a Gap between Apparent Demand and Actual Consumption, Pay Attention to the Term Strategy Guided by Low Visible Inventory - Zinc price fluctuations affect downstream replenishment willingness, which is one of the reasons for the gap between actual demand and apparent demand. The correlation coefficient between downstream raw material inventory and zinc prices is - 0.6 [61]. - The expansion of smelter - integrated zinc alloy production capacity, the increase in the proportion of factory - pickup and direct - delivery, and the cost of social warehouse delivery and pickup are the reasons for the low social inventory level [63]. - Low inventory levels may become the norm in the future, which can provide support for the term structure, especially during the destocking period of traditional consumption peak seasons [71]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2025, there is an excess of zinc ingots in China. The main operating range of SHFE zinc in the second half of 2025 is estimated to be 20,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 2,400 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [76][78]. - The investment outlook includes short - selling on rallies or buying put options for single - side trading, inter - period positive spreads, and internal - external reverse spreads during the domestic consumption peak season [2][79].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Based on the forecast of both supply and demand growth in the lead market in the second half of 2025, prices may show wide - range fluctuations. The main operating range of Shanghai lead is expected to be between 17,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, with a price center of around 17,500 yuan/ton. The mismatch in the supply - demand structure of waste batteries is the main cause of current industrial contradictions and the core logic driving up waste battery prices. It is expected that the supply of waste batteries will remain tight in 2025. On the demand side, there is still some growth in the electric bicycle industry, but the growth rate of lead - acid batteries in the automotive industry may peak, and the growth rate of domestic demand for new batteries is showing differentiation. External demand performed well in the first half of the year due to the rush - to - export effect, and countries like India and Southeast Asian nations are expected to further expand their lead - acid battery markets, which will drive exports. Overall, with both supply and demand increasing, prices may return to wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to focus on seasonal fluctuation opportunities [3][54]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Lead Market Review - In Q1, lead prices fluctuated strongly. Affected by the production cut expectation of large battery factories at the beginning of the year, the main contract of Shanghai lead once fell below 16,500 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, due to the supply - demand mismatch, the downstream battery enterprises resumed production in advance, but the resumption of recycled lead production was restricted by raw material recycling and environmental protection, resulting in a significant supply gap. Coupled with the US tariff policy and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, the lead price remained high. - In Q2, lead prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of April, global trade frictions led to a sharp decline in lead prices. As the tariff situation eased, the industrial fundamentals supported the price. The price of waste batteries remained strong during the off - season, and recycled lead smelters cut production due to losses, which supported the rebound of Shanghai lead, but the upside was limited due to macro - level disturbances and weak downstream demand [9]. 2. 2025 H2 Lead Price Operation Logic: Supply and Demand Both Increase, Wide - Range Fluctuations 2.1 Frequent Disturbances in Overseas Lead Ore Supply, but There May Still Be Increases for the Whole Year - In Q1, overseas lead ore supply underperformed expectations, and the persistence of disturbances needs further evaluation. Although some mining companies lowered their 2025 production guidance, the overall supply may still increase. Global lead ore production has been rigid in recent years due to low capital expenditure in the lead ore sector. The intensified competition for lead ore from European smelters'复产 has made the shortage of domestic lead ore more prominent. - Many overseas mines faced challenges such as declining ore grades and external force majeure factors in H1 2025, which affected production. For example, Red Dog's zinc concentrate production decreased by 20% year - on - year, and NEXA's lead - zinc mines in Peru had a 31% year - on - year decline in lead concentrate production. - Domestic lead concentrate production increased in 2025, with a 12.61% year - on - year increase from January to May. It is expected that there will be an additional 6 - 8 million tons of lead concentrate production for the whole year. Due to the tight supply of lead concentrate, the processing fee has been declining, squeezing the profit of primary lead smelters, which now rely more on by - product revenues [11][12][15]. 2.2 Changes in the Supply - Demand Structure of Waste Batteries Affect Recycled Lead - The mismatch in the supply - demand structure of waste batteries is the main cause of industrial contradictions and the core logic for the rising price of waste batteries. On one hand, the capacity of domestic recycled lead disassembly and smelting has expanded rapidly, but the growth of waste battery generation has a bottleneck, resulting in a prominent supply - demand gap. On the other hand, the waste battery disassembly capacity of primary lead smelters has been increasing year by year [22]. 2.3 Differentiated Growth Rate of Domestic Demand for New Batteries, and Potential Improvement in External Demand Growth Rate - **Electric Bicycles**: There is an expected increase in the electric bicycle industry. The new national standard has solved consumer pain points and provided space for battery capacity expansion. The new standard allows for larger - capacity lead - acid batteries, which will significantly reduce the experience gap with lithium - ion batteries. The "trade - in" policy also enhances the competitiveness of lead - acid batteries. It is estimated that if the new standard is strictly implemented in 2025, the new lead element consumption may increase by 204,000 tons. - **Automobiles**: The growth rate of lead - acid batteries in the automotive industry may peak. Although lead - acid batteries still dominate the market due to their low cost and high maturity, the advancement of hybrid technology may lead to the replacement of lead - acid batteries with lithium - ion batteries in the long run. - **External Demand**: In January - April 2025, China's lead - acid battery exports increased by 1.83% year - on - year. Affected by the US tariff policy, there was a rush - to - export effect. India and Southeast Asian markets are expected to further expand, which will drive exports [38]. 3. Deepening of Traditional Seasonal Patterns, Anchoring Downstream Restocking Feedback - In Q2, the terminal entered the off - season, and the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises declined. However, the overall restocking space during the off - season still supported the tight supply - demand of lead ingots. Lead elements were more concentrated in the finished - product inventory of terminal dealers. - The production of waste batteries was still low during the off - season, and the price fluctuated weakly. The profitability of waste battery recyclers increased in Q2, indicating the tight supply of waste batteries and the intense competition among recycled lead smelters for raw materials [43].

Core Viewpoint - Group Eleven Resources Corp. announced early warrant and option exercises totaling $2.2 million, enhancing its financial flexibility for ongoing drilling activities at the Carrickittle West prospect in Ireland, which is considered a promising target for mineralization [2][6]. Drilling and Exploration Update - Drilling at the Ballywire discovery continues with three rigs, having completed nine new holes, with significant results indicating the presence of brecciation, faulting, and hydrothermal fluids [4][5]. - The Carrickittle West prospect, which includes the Stonepark and PG West projects, is located near Glencore's Pallas Green deposit, with the potential to host a similar mineralizing system [4][25]. - Key attributes observed in the drilling include significant pyrite and trace sphalerite, suggesting proximity to high-grade mineralization [4][5]. Financial Position - The company has received proceeds of $2,206,752 from early warrant and option exercises since a C$2.5 million placement closed on February 28, 2025, increasing its cash position to approximately C$4.3 million as of June 13, 2025 [5][6]. - This strengthened financial position allows the company to ramp up drilling activities in 2025 and extend operations into 2026 [6]. Target Areas and Results - The most significant target emerging from recent drilling is the Kilteely Prospect, which features a large breccia body spanning at least 1.5 km [5]. - Additional target areas at Carrickittle West include the Bruff Prospect, which has shown extensive dolomitization and hydrothermal fluid flow, indicating potential for further mineralization [5][6]. - Future drilling plans include targeting the base of the Waulsortian Limestone on the hanging wall of the Kilteely Fault, with follow-up drilling warranted based on current findings [10][11].

| | 变量名称 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-05 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78010 | 78610 | 78170 | -600.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 98873 | 85090 | 64095 | 13,783.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 193847 | 203273 | 193026 I | -9, 426. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 36269 | 32785 | 31687 | 3, 484. 00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78952 | 79075 | 78415 | -120.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 (现货与期货) | 沪铜基差 | 945 | 465 | 245 | 480.00 | | | | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 25 | 60 | -15 | | -35.00 mm mmm | | | 华北电解铜现货升贴水 | -250 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high, and the uncertainty of the situation between Iran and Israel continues, which has a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets [1][12][13]. - The majority of financial data in May fell short of expectations, with corporate debt gradually becoming short - term, and the willingness of residents to actively increase debt remaining low. There is a need to observe the sustainability of the rebound in M1 growth rate [2][23][24]. - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - The new bio - fuel policy in the United States will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing, which will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump hopes that Iran and Israel can reach an agreement, and the 6 - month consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has rebounded, with inflation expectations significantly falling. However, due to the impact of oil prices, US inflation still faces upward risks. Gold prices are driven by the military conflict between Israel and Iran, and the short - term market continues to focus on the situation in the Middle East [12][13]. - Investment advice: The short - term trend of gold prices is dominated by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with increased volatility, so attention should be paid to risks [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The "Brigade of the Righteous" in Iraq warns that if the US intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it will attack US interests in the region. Trump claims that Iran and Israel "will reach an agreement" to suspend the conflict. The geopolitical risk remains high, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The consumer confidence index in June increased, and inflation expectations decreased. However, the intensification of the Middle East conflict may lead to concerns about re - inflation. If the oil price rises to $100 per barrel, the CPI in June may rebound to around 3%, increasing the difficulty of the Fed's decision - making. US stocks still face the risk of correction before the situation improves [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: Geopolitical risks increase inflation risks, and US stocks still have a risk of correction before the situation improves [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in May fell short of expectations. The fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. However, short - term bonds will fluctuate in the near term, and it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Pay appropriate attention to T when going long on the long - end [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock index futures evenly to cope with the rotational pattern [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US EPA proposed to increase the bio - fuel blending volume from 2026 to 2027, which will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing. It will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. - Investment advice: US soybean oil still has room to rise, and palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will follow suit, but the increase in rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak [32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net profit of Cristal Union in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 62%. The supply in Europe is sufficient, and the import from Ukraine is large, resulting in low sugar prices. The expected decline in Brazilian sugar cane production in 2025 increases the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production [33][35]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar may rebound in the short term, but the overall weak pattern is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, the quotation of processed sugar, and the performance of the external market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The inventory of port cotton continues to decline, and the USDA June report has a slightly positive impact on the cotton market, but the overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. The downstream textile industry is in a off - season, which drags down cotton prices [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: The cotton market may fluctuate repeatedly. A cautious and slightly optimistic view is held on the future market, and attention should be paid to macro - cotton dynamics and downstream demand changes [41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The five major varieties continue to de - stock slightly, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil shows a downward trend, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [42][44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt a rebound hedging strategy for the spot end [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The expected increase in the US bio - fuel blending standard will drive up the price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase, and the spot basis will continue to be under pressure [46][48]. - Investment advice: The prices of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis of soybean meal will remain weak [48]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spread between cassava starch and corn starch has narrowed. The supply - demand situation of corn starch may be gradually improving, and the spread between cassava starch and corn starch may temporarily stabilize [49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [50]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of wheat has fluctuated, and the substitution advantage of wheat has slightly increased. The spot price of corn is expected to rise first and then fall, and the basis is expected to strengthen [50][51]. - Investment advice: For the 07 contract, speculative long positions are recommended to take profits opportunely. For the 09 contract, shorting is not recommended, and it is expected to fluctuate with a first - strong - then - weak trend. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting the 11 and 01 contracts at high prices [51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory is 312.9 million tons, and large - scale discount transactions are gradually emerging. The market is oscillating weakly [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is oscillating weakly at a low level. The cancellation of the price limit of downstream stainless steel has released market pessimism. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron is in excess, and the medium - term price of nickel is expected to decline [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is possible to sell put options on dips. In the medium term, attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting at high prices in Q3 [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME warehouse in Hong Kong is expected to receive the first batch of copper next week. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war may suppress copper prices through the impact on the US dollar index. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is difficult to decline trend - wise [56][59][60]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see as copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. For arbitrage, wait for the opportunity of positive inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai copper [60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - After the rebound, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is insufficient, and the basis of the spot market is weakening. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the market may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Anhui Huasheng's polysilicon wafer technical transformation and expansion project has been accepted for environmental assessment. The spot trading volume is low, and the price of some products is declining. The supply in June is expected to be 960,000 tons, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The decision of leading enterprises on production reduction will have a major impact on the market [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: Before the leading enterprises reduce production, the market is bearish. A strategy of short - term shorting and long - term going long is recommended, and attention should be paid to the position management [65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in major producing areas has increased. The supply in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the spot price is difficult to rebound significantly [66][67]. - Investment advice: The futures market has rebounded. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly after the rebound. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The silver pricing coefficient of lead concentrates in June has not changed. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be weak until July. The short - term rise of lead prices is temporary, and the medium - term demand may increase marginally [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips, paying attention to the pressure around 17,000 yuan. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for both inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc oxide enterprises are facing environmental inspections, resulting in production cuts. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. The inventory is at an inflection point, and the price is expected to decline [71][72]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, look for opportunities to short at high prices and increase positions appropriately on rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period spread, and maintain the strategy of positive internal - external arbitrage in the medium term [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has risen slightly, affected by the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the shutdown of a French nuclear power plant. The short - term market needs to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [73][74]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Israel has attacked Iranian energy infrastructure, and the US oil rig count has decreased. The risk of supply in the Middle East has increased, and oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [75][76][77]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term as the market has not fully priced in the geopolitical conflict risk [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has risen, but the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term rise is mainly due to the impact of crude oil prices. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [78][79][80]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase long positions directly in the short term, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. However, the industry is under supply pressure, and the processing fee is under pressure. Some large factories have plans to reduce production [81][82]. - Investment advice: The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is possible to establish long positions for expanding the bottle - chip processing fee at low valuations [82]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The supply is relatively stable, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The demand is affected by the inventory of alumina and the wait - and - see attitude of non - aluminum downstream and traders [83]. - Investment advice: The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount of the 09 contract will limit the downward space [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak [84]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of pulp have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has risen, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market trading is average [87]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [87]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market is general, and the supply is expected to remain high in the short term. The demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to decline, and the market is bearish [88][89]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term expansion cycle, the strategy of shorting soda ash at high prices is still maintained [89]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The spot price of float glass has continued to decline, and the market demand is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify [90][91]. - Investment advice: Before the inventory of original - sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced, the spot price of float glass still has room for downward adjustment. The short - term market may be affected by the overall risk preference, and the rebound driven by short - covering is difficult to sustain [91].

Core Points - The South African FTSE/JSE Africa Leading 40 Index fell by 1.64% on June 13, closing at 87,865.89 points, moving away from the historical high of 89,326.22 points reached on June 12 [1] - The index is approaching the closing level of 87,181.74 points recorded on June 3, with a weekly decline of 0.84% [1] Company Performance - Valterra Platinum (VAL.SJ) led the decline with a drop of 5.86% [1] - Woolworths Holdings (WHL) decreased by 5.51% [1] - BHP Group (BVT) fell by 4.61% [1] - Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP) declined by 4.51% [1] Gainers - Among the seven stocks that gained, Glencore (GLN) increased by 0.52% [1] - Gold Fields (GFI) rose by 1.29% [1] - Harmony Gold (HAR) saw an increase of 1.86% [1] - British American Tobacco (BTI) gained 2.12% [1] - AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) increased by 4.3% [1] - Sasol (SOL) experienced the highest gain, rising by 10.89% [1]

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 期货从业资格号：F3075681 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货增仓下跌，空头再度主导盘面，近期碳酸锂主要受情绪面主导，基本 面变化不大。日内现货继续涨价，电碳涨 150 至 60650，国内锂辉石矿和锂云母 矿价格继续上涨，澳矿价格持平，矿价企稳反弹支撑碳酸锂现货价，磷酸铁锂涨 价 30-40,6 系和 8 系三元材料均降价 200，产业链上下游价格继续稳中向好。在 矿价和正极材料价格企稳背景下，预计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The relaxation of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to export expectations, and there are fluctuations in the production of multiple overseas steel mills. However, due to the traditional off - season of consumption, the destocking of domestic electrolytic copper is difficult, which may cause adjustments in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to support and pressure levels [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,290, with a volume of 64,136 lots, an increase of 410 compared to the previous day; the open interest was 209,523 lots, an increase of 838; the inventory was 33,373 tons, a decrease of 373 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,310, an increase of 35 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 20, a decrease of 375; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed various changes; the spreads between different contract months also changed, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 11, 2025 was 9,647, a decrease of 78; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 119,450; the spreads between different contract periods also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The total inventory on June 11, 2025 was 4.8065 million tons, a decrease of 0.09 million tons compared to the previous day [2]. Industry Information - **Upstream**: In June 2025, the overall starting rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises is expected to increase by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56%. Some mines have production plans and issues, such as the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, and some mines need to be shut down for maintenance. The import volume of copper concentrates may increase, while the production and import volume of scrap copper may decrease [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may decline in June, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper foil, etc., affected by factors such as the off - season of consumption and insufficient orders. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the support level of 76,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level of 80,000 - 82,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,000 - 9,300 and the pressure level of 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.5 - 4.5 and the pressure level of 5.0 - 5.5 for US copper [3].