1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, with political uncertainties rising in Europe and Japan and the dollar strengthening. The Fed may slow down the pace of interest - rate cuts from December to the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the bond market is in an overall volatile state. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the situation of government bond supply are key factors affecting the bond market. In November, bond trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART1: Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Dispute, Domestic Bond Market Overall Volatile 1.1 Overseas - In October, the US government shutdown, lack of macro data, and resurgence of trade frictions led to low - level volatility of US bond yields. Political uncertainties in Europe and Japan increased, causing the dollar index to rebound, and the euro and yen to depreciate against the dollar. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the December policy decision. It is expected that from December to the first quarter of next year, inflation transmission may strengthen, and the Fed may slow down the interest - rate cut pace [7][10] 1.2 Domestic - **Fundamentals and Bond Market**: High - frequency data shows that the fundamental data in October still needs improvement, and the capital market remains generally loose. The bond market declined in an overall volatile manner, mainly due to the Sino - US tariff game and the central bank's announcement to restart treasury bond trading [2][17] - **Institutional Behavior** - **Leverage Ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio fluctuated at a low level [19] - **Allocation Disk**: Large banks continued to buy short - term treasury bonds, while insurance companies reduced their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds [21][23] - **Trading Disk**: Rural commercial banks continued to reduce duration, while funds increased duration and added credit bonds [26] - **Wealth Management**: The scale and bond - allocation strength of wealth management products were better than seasonal trends, mainly increasing the allocation of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [34][35] PART2: How to Understand the Central Bank's Restart of Treasury Bond Trading? 2.1 Three Backgrounds for the Central Bank to Restart Treasury Bond Trading - It is an implementation of the requirements of the Fourth Plenary Session to ensure the annual stable - growth target. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by about 30BP this year, and the current interest - rate level is within the range mentioned by regulators. As of the end of October, the combined scale of outright reverse repos and MLF is at a historically high level, so the central bank needs to inject long - term liquidity [38] 2.2 Market Pricing of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading in 2024 - In 2024, against the backdrop of a bull market, the central bank bought short - term bonds and sold long - term bonds. The market was mainly concerned about the impact of regulatory bond sales on the bull market, resulting in a deeper inversion of short - term and funding interest rates and upward fluctuations in long - term yields [41] 2.3 Current Situation of Large Banks - Since June this year, large banks have significantly increased their secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, with net purchases of short - term treasury bonds within 3 years reaching about 1.3 trillion yuan. The scale of purchases of 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds by large banks expanded in August - September, totaling 163.3 billion yuan. The downward space for short - term yields may be less than last year [45] 2.4 Points to Note - In the medium term, treasury bond trading is a long - term liquidity injection tool with the function of adjusting the yield curve. The differences between the central bank's bond - buying and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are reflected in four aspects: liquidity improvement, monetary - policy space, impact on banks, and impact on the bond market. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the scale and maturity distribution of the central bank's bond - buying, changes in funding interest rates and inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and whether there will be further overall loosening [48] PART3: Bond Market Strategy 3.1 Trading Strategy in November - In November, trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes. After the official release of the new regulations on public - fund fees, the downward trend may be smoother. Bullish factors include the pending implementation of the central bank's bond - buying and the possibility of another interest - rate cut this year. Bearish factors include the expected high supply of government bonds from November to December and the uncertainty of the new regulations on public - fund fees [4][52] 3.2 Structural Opportunities - Further attention can be paid to the opportunities of the central bank's potential purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years, the spread - compression opportunities of ultra - long - term treasury bonds, and the opportunities of credit - bond investment with medium - short duration and credit - risk sinking, especially urban investment bonds and financial bonds [4][55]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing due to liquidity pressure on banks' liability side in Q4, but the possibility of an interest rate cut requires further observation of economic data and tariff game impacts [3][4] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates; if an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 History of Q4 Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts - In the past 5 years, except for 2021, policy rates were generally cut twice a year but not in Q4. In 2020, cuts were in H1; in 2024, in H2; in 2022, once each in H1 and H2, mostly by 10BP, with 20BP cuts in March 2020 and September 2024 [1][10] - In 2021, there was no interest rate cut, but the 1 - year LPR was cut by 5BP in Q4. In 2024, the policy rate was cut by 20BP in September and the LPR by 25BP in October [10] - From 2020 - 2022, reserve requirement ratio cuts were about twice a year, once each in H1 and H2, and there were cuts in Q4 of 2021 - 2022. In 2020, affected by the pandemic, comprehensive and targeted cuts were used in H1 [11] 3.2 Central Bank's Stance on Monetary Policy - After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in early May this year, the policy focus shifted to the implementation of existing policies, with room for flexible adjustment based on the situation [2] - The "opportunistic" in "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakened effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and a sharp decline in the capital market [2][17] - Currently, the necessity for monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policies may be decreasing, and the focus of monetary policy may be on supporting economic growth, which depends on macro - economic conditions [2][18][19] 3.3 Possibility of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts This Year 3.3.1 Necessity of a Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - Banks' liability side faces liquidity pressure in Q4, increasing the necessity of a cut. The high maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity, the need to supplement liquidity regularly under the "structural liquidity shortage" framework, and the special situation this year (large - scale high - interest time deposit maturities and a narrowing M2 - M1 gap) all contribute [20][21][24] 3.3.2 Possibility and Boundaries of an Interest Rate Cut - Since 2024, the central bank launched "policy combos" under different domestic and international macro - environments. Currently, there are similarities and differences, leading to a divergence in market expectations for loose monetary policy [28] - Although Q4 economic data is expected to slow down compared to Q3, it doesn't directly mean a window for policy intensification. It is necessary to observe economic performance from November to December and the impact of the tariff game [39][40] - To support the real economy, a cut in structural monetary policy tools may come first. And a cut may not be the only way to promote a reasonable rise in prices and reduce the real economy's financing costs. Also, a cut may put pressure on banks' net interest margins [45][46] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is increasing marginally, but it is not a high - probability event. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and cuts in structural monetary policy tools may come first [48] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates. If an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited by the current low - interest rate level and policy imagination space brought by the "14th Five - Year Plan" [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices are driven by supply disruptions, structural demand surges, and macroeconomic and policy influences, with prices remaining at a 15-month high as of October 22 [2][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Copper Price Increase - Supply-side constraints are significant, with mining accidents leading to production halts, such as the complete shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg mine, which accounts for 3% of global output. This has resulted in a projected global copper production growth rate of only 1.4% by 2025, significantly lower than the demand growth rate of 3% [5]. - Structural demand surges are primarily driven by the renewable energy sector. For instance, the copper usage in electric vehicles is 83 kg per vehicle, four times that of traditional fuel vehicles, with global sales expected to exceed 30 million units by 2025, leading to an additional copper demand of over 200,000 tons. Additionally, solar power installations require 500 tons of copper per gigawatt, translating to a demand increase of 300,000 tons from 596 GW of new installations [5]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors include a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has weakened the dollar and enhanced the financial attributes of commodities. Geopolitical tensions and trade distortions, such as tariffs, have also influenced copper inventory movements, with COMEX copper trading at a premium of $683 per ton over LME copper [6]. Group 2: Future Price Outlook - Short-term projections for copper prices (by Q4 2025) suggest a trading range of $9,800 to $11,000 per ton for LME copper, influenced by U.S.-China policies and the pace of mine restarts. A potential tariff escalation or inventory accumulation could push prices down to a support level of 83,000 yuan per ton [8]. - In the medium term (2026), if the copper supply gap persists, forecasts indicate a global shortage expanding to between 87,000 tons (UBS) and 300,000 tons (Citi), with price averages potentially rising to $11,000 to $12,000 per ton. Catalysts for this increase may include the implementation of China's "anti-involution" policies, growth in AI infrastructure, and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Long-term projections suggest that declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditures, combined with surging demand from AI and renewable energy sectors, could see prices exceed $12,000 to $15,000 per ton by 2027, although economic recession or technological substitution risks should be monitored [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, due to Sino - US tariff game, demand expectations are weakening, making futures prices weaker while the spot market remains firm due to slowed domestic arrivals. With reduced rainfall in domestic production areas, raw material prices are falling. Thai production areas may see increased cup - rubber supply later. Although downstream tire factory开工率 is rising and exports are resilient, overall domestic supply - demand is expected to become looser and inventory reduction may slow down. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and prices are expected to move within a range [7] - For butadiene rubber, in late October, more upstream butadiene rubber plant overhauls in China may reduce supply and support prices. Downstream tire factory开工率 is rising and exports are resilient. Supply - demand may improve, and raw material prices are expected to be stable. Surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - support. However, high current inventories may limit the rebound space, and prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall this week [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,840 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), up about 82% year - on - year and 15% month - on - month, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, up 14.41% month - on - month and 20.92% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, up 19.65% year - on - year [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, up 16.4% and 12.9% month - on - month, and 17.1% and 14.9% year - on - year. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales in the same period exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, up 4.2% year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, up 5.4% year - on - year. The export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, up 4.5% year - on - year; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, up 3.6% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 610 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 260 yuan/ton (+ 115), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,197 yuan/ton (+ 189.37), the NR basis was 801.00 yuan/ton (+ 42.00); the price of whole latex was 14,200 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 750 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.37 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.22), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.65 Thai baht/kg (- 0.25) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 20, 2025, the BR basis was 60 yuan/ton (+ 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,963 yuan/ton (+ 168) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company predicts that tin prices will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to mixed macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. contribute to cautious market sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic large smelters in China are expected to resume tin ingot production in October [1] - However, raw material supply remains tight, providing support for supply [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand appears weak, with no improvement in orders noted [1] - Downstream inventory replenishment is cautious due to high tin prices, resulting in limited transactions [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Category Black Series - Most black series commodities fell. The market sentiment was weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high. The actual situation of the black series remained weak, and the rebar futures reached a more than three - month low. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons, with the increase far higher than 3.65% of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. In the future, the property transactions during the National Day holiday were halved year - on - year, the national replenishment in many places was suspended, the sales of automobiles and home appliances declined, and the accumulated inventory needed time to digest. Exports also faced new challenges, so the fundamental contradictions were prominent, and the upward pressure on prices continued [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals declined. In the copper market, there was concern about the Sino - US tariff game. The market had different views on copper, mainly focusing on capital pull and demand pressure in traditional fields. The domestic copper market might continue the feature of "both supply and demand being weak". For aluminum, non - ferrous metals rose and then fell. The spot in East China was at par, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods had a neutral accumulation. There were signs of inventory reduction in major regions on Tuesday. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically the same year - on - year, and the demand was resilient but lacked a high point. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate, and the upside space should be carefully viewed [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products weakened. As the macro - sentiment eased and investors' risk appetite gradually recovered, international crude oil prices rebounded. However, the willingness of domestic funds to chase the rise was relatively cautious, and the main contract of SC crude oil continued to decline. In the future, the market entered the TACO trading mode, and oil prices might fluctuate and repair in the short term. But the unpredictable style of Trump made the macro - level highly uncertain, and the trading rhythm was difficult to grasp. In the medium and long term, as geopolitical risks eased, the price center might move down [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. The weakening of external - market oils and the decline of crude oil led to a weak overall sentiment in the oil market. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.41 million tons, up 340,000 tons year - on - year, at a high level in recent years. The fundamentals of oils lacked positive support for the time being, and they were expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices. In the long term, palm oil was about to enter the seasonal production - reduction period, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia would have an impact, so oils still had room to rise. The decline of double - meal (rapeseed meal and soybean meal) widened, and rapeseed meal reached a three - month low. The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal in China was at a high level, and the weak fundamentals restricted the upward space of prices. In the short term, double - meal might continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans and rapeseeds [1]. Others - Shipping futures had a large increase, with the Container Freight Index (European Line) rising 7.36%. All precious metals rose, with Shanghai gold rising 2.70%. Most new - energy materials rose, with polysilicon rising 2.55% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about demand and the recovery of supply, the rubber price continues to be weak. Although the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply of BR is still supported, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,845 yuan/ton, a change of -95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,990 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,820 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of -150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In September 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in recent years [2] - In September 2025, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China was 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] - From January to August 2025, the export volume of Chinese rubber tires reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3] - According to QinRex data, from January to August 2025, the total export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, the automobile export volume was 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the RU basis was -595 yuan/ton (+45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 395 yuan/ton (-95), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -3,332 yuan/ton (+7.76), the NR basis was 936.00 yuan/ton (-18.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,250 yuan/ton (-50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was -700 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.65 Thai baht/kg (-0.30), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (-1.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.15 Thai baht/kg (+1.00) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (-17.50%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (-122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (-705) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the BR basis was -30 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton (-150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -2,196 yuan/ton (-100) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.69% (+4.15%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+0) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Due to the continuation of the Sino - US tariff game, concerns about the demand side resurface, and the supply is recovering. The domestic supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming looser, but the low valuation limits the downward space [6] - For BR, maintain a neutral view. There are still maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in China in October, and the supply is still supported. The supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For short - fiber (PF), it is in a short - term volatile market and is expected to be weak in the medium term. The price is driven down by expectations, with increased volatility. Although the current absolute price is low and downstream buying interest is okay, the cost - side price and supply - demand support are both weak. There may be opportunities for recovery if there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations [7][8]. - For bottle chips (PR), it is in a situation of being driven down by expectations and having increased volatility. The fourth - quarter factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% overall. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. If there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations, there may be a chance of regression and repair [11][12]. Summary by Directory Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuation of the processing fee and the inter - month spread is basically reasonable, while the basis is high [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: After the National Day, the average operating rate of short - fiber decreased to 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple for spinning decreased to 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future and may gradually decline slightly from October to November [7]. - Demand: Downstream orders had a concentrated outbreak before the festival, but the sustainability was average due to the hot weather after the festival. The knitted market is better than the woven market. The finished product pressure of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn is okay, and the inventory of grey cloth has decreased. The terminal demand may continue to be affected by the repeated US tariffs [7]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [10]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [10]. - Inter - variety: None [10]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, which is over - valued. The processing fees of the November and December futures are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also over - valued, but it may be difficult to compress them due to the weak cost [13]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% in the fourth quarter. Currently, factories are still maintaining the production reduction. The 110 - million - ton bottle - chip device of Huarun Zhuhai restarted gradually at the end of September, and the 50 - million - ton device is still increasing its load. It is expected to maintain production reduction and industry self - discipline in the future, with the load generally remaining around 80% [11]. - Demand: The price continued to decline, and there was still an increase in low - price purchases. The demand from October to November decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet materials also decreased. The bottle - chip factories accumulated inventory to about 18 days during the National Day. The export in October - November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 55 million tons [11]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [13]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [13]. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts when the processing fee is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton [13]. Other Aspects - Cost and Profit: The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 780 - 800 yuan/ton [48]. - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased, and the inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has risen to around 18 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory from October to November [53]. - Device Changes: Most factories maintain a 20% production reduction. The new 30 - million - ton device of Fuhai is expected to be put into production in late October, and Wuliangye's 10 - million - ton plan is expected to be launched at the end of this year or early next year [59]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of beverage enterprises ranges from 60% - 90%, the sheet - material industry in East China operates at 60% - 80% and in South China at 40% - 70%, and the average operating rate of edible oil enterprises is around 60% - 80% [63]. - Export: From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle - chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam, and the impact of the commissioning of Turkey's SASA on exports to the local area [86].

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market and Steel Industry Industry Overview - The coking coal market has experienced a significant price decline of approximately 50% from early 2024 to mid-2025, influenced by domestic production growth and the US-China tariff dispute [1][2][4] - Coking coal prices saw a slight rebound due to pre-holiday stockpiling demands, but the overall trend remains downward [1][2] Key Points on Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Domestic coking coal production increased by nearly 5% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching approximately 280 million tons [4] - Import volumes decreased, particularly from Mongolia and the US, while imports from Russia and Australia partially offset these reductions [4] - Coking coal prices weakened in the first half of 2025 due to structural inventory issues in the coal and steel interaction, with upstream inventories rising while downstream inventories fell [7] Price Trends and Influencing Factors - By June 2025, coking coal futures dropped to around 700 RMB/ton, with spot prices at approximately 1,300 RMB/ton, reflecting a 50% decline from earlier prices [2] - A rebound in prices was noted starting June, attributed to increased stockpiling by downstream enterprises and favorable steel production profits [8] - Current coking coal inventories are slightly better than the previous year, with expectations for stable or slightly rising prices in the fourth quarter due to stockpiling demands [14] Steel Industry Dynamics - China's crude steel production saw a year-on-year decrease of nearly 20 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, but some data indicates production levels remain above last year's figures [5] - Steel exports reached approximately 80 million tons in the first seven months of 2025, with significant growth in exports to emerging markets despite reduced exports to the US [6] - The steel industry's growth stabilization plan aims to adjust production based on market demand, which may impact coking coal demand [10][11] Company Performance and Market Outlook - Major mining companies like Lu'an Huanneng have shown strong performance due to high spot market sensitivity, while others like Pingmei Shenma have lagged but are adjusting prices closer to spot levels [17][18] - Huabei Mining is noted for its growth potential, with upcoming projects expected to contribute to profitability [19] - The overall outlook for coking coal prices in the second half of 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for stable prices unless production exceeds forecasts or stockpiling demand falls short [15][16] Conclusion - The coking coal market is currently facing challenges due to price declines and inventory issues, but there are signs of recovery driven by stockpiling and steel production profitability. The steel industry's strategic adjustments may further influence coking coal demand and pricing dynamics in the coming months.

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a systematic response framework to the current US-China tariff conflict, emphasizing strategic adjustments in trade, domestic consumption, and the role of private enterprises in global markets. Group 1: Precise Countermeasures and Resilience Building - The "less loss is a win" countermeasure logic suggests a targeted response to US unilateral tariff policies, focusing on key areas that threaten national core interests through tiered tariffs and industry countermeasures [3] - China's trade structure has strategically adjusted, with exports to the US decreasing from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries increased from 38.7% to 47.8%, and ASEAN market share rose to 16.4% [4] Group 2: Domestic Demand Revitalization and Consumption Upgrade - The strategy aims to leverage the consumption potential of 1.4 billion people, making domestic demand a cornerstone of the economy by optimizing income distribution and establishing a unified national market [5] - New consumption scenarios are being developed, promoting the integration of online and offline ecosystems, with online retail expected to exceed 35% by 2024, serving as a key buffer against foreign trade fluctuations [6] Group 3: Support for Private Enterprises and Globalization Breakthrough - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade is increasing from 55% to 60%, focusing on market diversification by shifting production capacity to Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, thereby reducing reliance on single markets [7] - Innovative models for going global are exemplified by the collaboration between Great Wall Motors and FF, which utilized technology licensing and localization to overcome a 147.5% tariff barrier, launching the "Chinese-American hybrid" model FX Super One with over 10,000 orders on the first day [8] Group 4: Release of Institutional Opening Dividends - The gradual reduction of the negative list for foreign investment and pilot testing in free trade zones are part of a strategy to balance openness and stability [9] - Efforts to enhance global governance and dialogue include aligning with high-standard agreements like CPTPP and DEPA, and establishing a new trade rule system through the Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen international rule-making authority [10][11]