Domestic Demand - In December 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.296 million units, down 13% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 28.5% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, but improved by 8.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 0.9% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, a decline of 2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Daily box office revenue for movies was 53.55 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026[2] Industrial Sector - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.4% this week, with the black materials index up 2.7% and the non-ferrous metals index up 5.3%[4] - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increased, while the apparent demand for major steel products declined[4] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 38.4% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the previous week[4] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.1% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, but this was a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value[4] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[4] - South Korea's export value increased by 13.4% year-on-year in December, up 5 percentage points from November[4] Price Trends - The price of rebar futures increased by 0.7%, while spot prices rose by 0.6% this week[4] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 7.2%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices remaining stable[4] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly by 0.4% this week[4]

随着全球经济格局深刻演变，美元在国际贸易和金融体系中的核心地位正面临结构性压力。1月10日， 在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，中银国际证券首席经济学家徐高指出，美元长期主导的全球 大循环正逐步进入衰落期，但这一变化更多源自美国内部经济结构和政策选择，而非外部挑战。 在演讲中，徐高回顾了过去四十年全球化进程的演变。他认为，现代全球贸易长期失衡的格局，是自 1971年美元脱离挂钩黄金之后才得以持续形成的。现代法币体系使得部分国家能够长期保持贸易顺差， 而美国则持续承担全球流动性提供者的角色。 在美元全球大循环中，美国面临的主要风险来自国内经济结构的演变。徐高认为，美国制造业占比自上 世纪70年代以来持续下降，国内收入分配差距的扩大，使得美国难以长期通过全球化战略维持经济增长 的均衡。 政策上，美国在应对全球化带来的压力时陷入两难。一方面，如果继续推动美元流出以维持全球需求， 美国国内经济可能出现结构性问题和社会矛盾；另一方面，如果减少美元对外流动以保护国内经济稳 定，全球贸易需求将随之下降。 徐高认为，这种内部政策约束使得美元全球大循环在长期内逐渐减弱，而"美元霸权"的维持依赖于美国 能否平衡外需与国 ...

Inflation Overview - November CPI and core CPI year-on-year were 0.8% and 1.2% respectively, indicating a stable upward trend[5] - December food CPI year-on-year increased from 0.2% to 1.1%, primarily due to adverse weather affecting supply[5] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remains stable, suggesting a decrease in economic downturn risks; December industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking an expansion for eight consecutive months[5] - Prices for household appliances and automobiles are recovering, with household appliances CPI year-on-year growth increasing to 5.9%[5] PPI Trends - December PPI year-on-year decline narrowed, supported by supply-side policy effects and a gradual recovery in domestic demand[5] - Life goods PPI year-on-year was -1.3%, with prices for cultural and quality goods rebounding due to consumption initiatives[5] Consumer Behavior - Tourism CPI in December maintained a high year-on-year growth of 2.1%, indicating resilience in service consumption[5] - The overall inflation data signals a positive trend in market conditions, reflecting improvements in consumer sentiment and spending[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices due to geopolitical conflicts[5]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 12 月，受基数、政策前倾等因素影响，内需依然偏弱。但针对 2026 年的经济运行，扩内需政策在陆 续出台，预计开年内需将回升。 首先，从四季度 GDP 增速来看，四季度在基数走高、政策前倾等因素影响下，工业生产、建筑业、地产批 零及金融业增速回落，预计 GDP 增速降至 4.3% 左右，全年实现 5% 左右的 GDP 增长。 但， 2025 年四 季度 GDP 增速与 2026 年目标相比预计偏低， 1 季度扩内需的必要性较强。 其次，内需读数来看，社零与固投 12 月或依然偏弱。预计 12 月社零 1% 左右，全年固投 -3.3% 左右。 但， 1 月初两新政策已出台，叠加元旦、春节假期较长，有望带动社零增速回升。 1 月提前下达提前批"两 重"建设项目清单和中央预算内投资计划 2950 亿元，同时发改委近期批复或核准多个重大基础设施项目， 总投资超过 4000 亿元， 1 季度固投增速有望转正。 再次，外需依然偏强。预计 12 月出口增速在 3.5% 左右。 需要重视的 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在"开门红"资金预期下，业内人士认为，春季行情开启，2026年A股市场风格正在向更均衡的全面牛市 演进。 历史突破 1月6日，A股三大指数全线上涨。上证指数涨1.50%，报4083.67点，不仅突破去年11月高点，也创逾十 年新高；深证成指涨1.4%，创业板指涨0.75%。 上证指数当日实现日线13连阳，创史上最长连阳纪录。上一次纪录是1992年2月25日至1992年3月11日， 上证指数日线曾实现12连阳，这一连阳纪录保持了33年之久。 特约记者丨庞华玮 编辑丨姜诗蔷 视频丨柳润瑛 1月6日，A股市场写下两项历史纪录：上证指数收于4083.67点，创下近十年收盘新高；同时，其连续13 个交易日的上涨，打破了尘封33年的最长连阳纪录。 当日市场放量至2.83万亿元，资金做多热情高涨。投资人戏称："4000点从收费站变成了加油站。" 机构分析，本轮上涨的核心动力在于保险、融资及外资的持续流入。 盘面上，脑机接口板块再度掀起涨停潮，三博脑科、伟思医疗等近20股涨停；商业航天板块持续拉升， 中国卫通、金风科技等8只个股涨停，其中，中国卫通涨停 ...

宏 2026 年 1 月 5 日 中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 1 周） 假期出行热度较高 证券分析师 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周受元旦假期影响，工业生产季节性调整，新房成交略有 走弱，但线下出行热度提升，元旦假期消费潜力释放。 1. 工业：生产季节性调整。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水泥熟料产能利 用率提升，石油沥青开工率回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造 业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎、全钢胎开工率回落。 2. 地产：本周新房成交略有走弱，受元旦假期影响。1）销售方面，本周（截至 1 月 2 日）30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-33.7%，增速较上周回落 9.6 个百分 点；12 月 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-27.3%，较上月提升 5.8 个百分点。 2）截至 12 月 22 日，近四周二手房出售挂牌价指数环比-0.64%。 3. 内需：元旦假期线下出行热度提升；2025 年 12 月汽车、家电零售及邮政快递 揽收量边际走弱。1）汽车：据乘联会统计，2025 年 12 月 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly on the liquor sector, with a focus on high-quality companies for long-term investment [3][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, which has been highlighted by authoritative media and government officials since mid-December 2025. It notes that the high-end liquor prices have recently declined, indicating a market shift towards finding a balance between volume and price [3][7]. - For 2026, the report anticipates a double-digit decline in sales volume in Q1, with a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in fundamentals by Q3. If the fundamentals recover as expected, a dual boost in valuation and performance is anticipated towards the end of 2026 and into 2027 [3][7]. - The report recommends several key liquor companies, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [3][7]. - In the consumer goods sector, the report highlights opportunities in the supply chain related to condiments, frozen foods, and dairy products, recommending companies such as Anjijia, Yili, and Qianhe Flavoring [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.26% last week, with liquor down 2.79%, underperforming the broader market [6][33]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's performance is closely tied to the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of improved market conditions compared to the previous months [11]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.95 percentage points, with the liquor sector lagging behind by 2.48 percentage points [33][34]. 3. Key Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai announced a significant adjustment to its online sales strategy, which is expected to have a profound impact on both the company and the industry. The adjustment includes a new product matrix aimed at better consumer engagement and market pricing [8][11]. - The report also mentions that Moutai's product prices have seen a decline, with the retail price for its flagship product dropping to 1490 yuan per bottle, reflecting a broader trend in the high-end liquor market [8][19].

Economic Performance - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, up from 1.0% in Q2, resulting in a year-to-date growth rate of 5.2%[19] - Final consumption contributed 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3, accounting for 56.7% of the overall growth[29] - Retail sales growth averaged only 0.06% month-on-month from July to October, down from 0.2% in Q2[19] Investment and Consumption - Investment contribution to GDP growth fell from 1.3 percentage points (24.7% of growth) in Q2 to 0.9 percentage points (18.9% of growth) in Q3[29] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments also slowing due to profit pressures and fiscal constraints[31] Labor Market and Consumer Behavior - The urban unemployment rate remained stable around 5%, but youth unemployment reached 17.7% in September, influenced by a surge in university graduates[30] - Structural factors, including social security gaps and income inequality, have led to high precautionary savings among residents, with savings at 31% of disposable income in 2023[24] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Broad fiscal deficit increased from 5.3% of GDP in the previous year to 6.1% in 2025, driven by weak land sales revenue and rising debt[60] - Despite a loose monetary policy, private sector credit demand remains weak, with non-financial sector credit growing by only 8.7% year-on-year[62] Trade and External Factors - China's current account surplus rose to 3.5% of GDP in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 2.2% in 2024, despite capital outflows[44] - Exports to developing countries increased, with a 4.7% year-on-year growth in goods exports from July to October, offsetting a 27% decline in exports to the US[41]

包括淡水泉投资、星石投资、玄元投资、清和泉资本、相聚资本等多家主打主观选股策略的国内头部私 募，在最新2026年投资策略展望中认为，A股牛市仍在进程中，但驱动逻辑可能逐渐从流动性转向基本 面，节奏和以往将会不同，从估值驱动有望逐步切换到业绩驱动，选股难度加大，配置价值依然十分可 观，2026年投资机会将围绕出海、人工智能、反内卷、内需等方向展开。 人民财讯1月2日电，2025年已收官，私募年度业绩基本尘埃落定，收获满满。展望2026年，市场怎么 走？上涨动力来自哪里？哪些是重要投资机会？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The private equity firms believe that the A-share bull market is ongoing, with a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth expected in 2026, leading to increased stock selection difficulty and continued investment opportunities in areas such as overseas expansion, artificial intelligence, anti-involution, and domestic demand [1][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Starstone Investment indicates that the main driver for the stock market's upward trend in 2025 was the valuation uplift due to a loose liquidity environment, with the current stock-to-bond ratio still showing relative attractiveness for equity assets [2]. - Yuan Investment notes that the historical ratio of A-share total market value to household savings suggests that the bull market has not yet concluded, with the current ratio around 0.65, indicating potential for further market growth [2]. - Clear River Capital highlights a significant shift in the underlying logic of the A-share market, with improving free cash flow and increasing dividend and buyback ratios, projecting a market dividend rate exceeding 40% in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The private equity firms identify key investment opportunities in 2026, focusing on overseas expansion, artificial intelligence, anti-involution, and domestic demand [7][8]. - Clear River Capital emphasizes that the 2026 market will likely see a transition to earnings-driven growth, with historical data suggesting that while index valuations may rise moderately, earnings growth could average 23%, leading to substantial index returns [5]. - Starstone Investment sees potential in traditional industries with reasonable valuations, expecting improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability due to ongoing structural reforms and policy support [6]. Group 3: Economic Drivers - Yuan Investment anticipates that the economic recovery in 2026 will be driven by domestic price recovery, with policies aimed at "anti-involution" potentially leading to improved price indicators [4]. - Clear River Capital expects that the actual GDP will remain resilient in 2026, with ongoing efforts to expand domestic demand and moderate inflation recovery [5]. - Starstone Investment draws parallels to past supply-side reforms, suggesting that the focus on quality and efficiency will enhance industry supply and profitability [6].