本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.374≈国内金价。 周五黄金再次大扫荡，昨天开盘之后，亚洲盘惯性下跌，欧洲盘时段受支撑于3886美元以来的趋势支撑止跌反弹，美盘时段迎来了大涨拉升。美盘一度突破 日内高点至4100区域后再次回落；最终，日线以阴十字收盘，周线同样收取阴十字。下周是11月最后一个交易周，月线收盘，下周相对关键。 昨天欧美盘时段的上涨最主要是受两个消息影响，第一个，乌克兰和欧盟拒绝了美国起草的和平协议关键部分。第二，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯拥有了投票 权，昨天讲话凸显鸽派，市场认为12月份美联储可能降息。威廉姆斯的讲话，使得导致12月份美联储降息的概率从前一天的30%下方直接跃升至50%以上， 接近百分之70%。 在消息之后，黄金迎来了拉升，美股也迎来了止跌回升。昨天美联储还有几个官员讲话，洛根以及柯比斯，他们两个倾向于暂停降息里，今年刚刚当选的理 事米兰是支持降息。现在，美联储比较热闹，前几天是鹰派作风，一堆官员出来讲话，打压降息预期，昨天美联储内部又开始分化了。 地缘局势，俄乌冲突再次回到了市场的焦点；亚太地区的日本，同时我们要持续关注北美地区，美国和委内 ...

午后操作要记住三句话： 老铁们，今天上午这盘面看得人直挠头！指数看似风平浪静，沪指只跌了0.04%，但水面下却是暗流汹涌——全市场超过4500只个股下跌，这行情就像冰面 上的舞蹈，看着优美，底下却寒意阵阵。 要说亮点，保险银行成了今天的"定海神针"。中国人保涨近4%，中国太保紧随其后，这帮"大象"突然起舞，背后是资金在寻找避风港。毕竟在震荡市里，高 股息、低估值就是硬道理。军工装备也不甘示弱，亚星锚链涨停，江龙船艇大涨超10%，地缘局势叠加国企改革预期，让这个板块始终保持着热度。 但热闹背后藏着隐忧。海南板块全线调整，海南海药、海马汽车触及跌停，前期爆炒的题材股明显退潮。燃气板块更是"压力山大"，胜利股份触及跌停，长 春燃气跌超7%。最值得关注的是量能大幅萎缩，半日成交额较上日缩量1804亿元，说明市场观望情绪浓厚。 该防守时就防守，保险银行这些低估值板块，虽然涨得慢，但胜在稳健； 我是帮主郑重，专注中长线的财经老炮。投资路上，不追风，等风来！ 别追高位的题材股，海南板块的退潮说明，没有业绩支撑的炒作终将回归价值； 关注错杀的成长股，在4500只下跌个股中，不乏被错杀的优质标的，特别是那些业绩确定、估值合理的 ...

后期对于黄金市场的核心影响因素仍在于美联储政策博弈和地缘局势的变化。其中，地缘政治局势将持 续为金价的上涨带来托底，其中中东局势仍是核心变量。当前，加沙第二阶段停火谈判陷入僵局，区域 冲突潜在风险为金价提供稳定的避险支撑。 而在美联储政策方面，预计围绕政策的博弈将主导金价的短期波动。本周将公布美联储10月货币政策会 议纪要，同时还有多位重量级官员将发表讲话，市场聚焦美联储对通胀的判断与降息时点讨论。 此外，延迟发布的经济数据或成关键变量，并通过直接影响降息预期来驱动金价的波动。而全球央行购 金则将继续为金价提供长期支撑。 综上所述，预计本周金价大概率呈震荡偏强走势，核心逻辑仍为地缘避险与宽松预期双重支撑。从技术 面来看，下方3990美元／盎司一线支撑强劲，构成短期的关键支撑。后市，若金价站稳4055美元，有望 再度冲击4080~4100美元；若跌破关键支撑，或测试3950美元区间。需警惕数据与政策言论引发的短期 波动，整体预计本周金价波动区间在3950-4100美元／盎司。 新华财经北京11月18日电上周，国际现货金价呈现冲高回落的态势，期间金价最高触及4245.22美元／ 盎司，最低下探3997.20美元／ ...

市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势抄底，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上高铭鑫的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 换资前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（11月17日）现货黄金延续前两个交易日跌势，下跌约0.53%至每盎司4063美元附近。尽管黄金上 周五下跌逾2%，但成功从低点反弹，上周仍录得2%的涨幅，实现三周来首次周度上涨。这一表现彰显 了其非凡韧性——即便在政府停摆结束与贸易休战至少两项利空因素消散的背景下。上周五的下跌看似 终于击穿了黄金的韧性防线，但从周线表现来看其抗跌性依然稳固，关键技术位也未被突破。然而本 周，黄金会面临真正的压力考验、从而令前景偏向看跌吗？ 尽管周五将发布的全球PMI数据等国际宏观指标可能通过美元渠道间接影响金价，但市场焦点将完全聚 焦于美国经济。随着美国政府重启，虽然部分因 ...

Market Overview - The military and lithium mining sectors experienced significant growth, with military stocks like Hongxiang Co., Zhongfutong, Jianglong Shipbuilding, and Tengjing Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase [3][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.46% at 3972.03 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index saw slight recoveries [1][2] Military Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with several stocks reaching their daily limit, indicating increased investor interest due to rising geopolitical uncertainties [5][7] - Analysts predict a positive trend for the military industry from 2025 to 2027, driven by domestic demand and international military trade orders [7] Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector also demonstrated robust performance, with stocks like Tianhua New Energy and Shengxin Lithium Energy reaching their daily limit of 20% increase [8][9] - Predictions indicate a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, with potential price increases if demand exceeds expectations [10] AI Application Sector - The AI application sector was active, with stocks such as Xuan Ya International and BlueFocus reaching daily limits of 20% and over 12% increases, respectively [11][12] - Alibaba's recent developments in AI, including the launch of the "Qwen" personal AI assistant, are expected to enhance its market position in the AI sector [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have been intense, characterized by rapid changes in price and sentiment, leading to challenges for investors, particularly newcomers [1] Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged by 2.8% on Monday, closing at $4,111.39 per ounce, marking the highest closing level in over two weeks [3] - Weak U.S. economic data has shifted market expectations towards a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with a 64% probability of a rate cut in December and 77% by January [3] Price Forecast - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach the range of $4,200 to $4,300 per ounce by the end of the year, with a reasonable target of $5,000 in the first quarter of next year [4] Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the key resistance level of $4,080, indicating a potential return to a bullish trend, but caution is advised due to possible cooling of market sentiment after the government shutdown ends [5][7] - Key price levels to watch include the resistance zone of $4,150 to $4,180 and support around $4,080 [7] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the current volatile market, focusing on risk management and avoiding emotional trading decisions [8] - Specific trading strategies include shorting lightly if prices test the $4,140 to $4,150 range, and considering long positions if prices pull back to around $4,080 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) showing a slight decline, while certain stocks within the sector are performing well. The ETF has reached a record high in size, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, the Aerospace ETF (159227) has a decline of 0.52% and a trading volume of 123 million yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in its category [1]. - The current size of the Aerospace ETF (159227) is 1.79 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - A team of Chinese scientists has successfully completed ground testing of inflatable, reconfigurable modules for a new space manufacturing platform, which is a significant step towards large-scale industrial production in orbit [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the aerospace and defense industry is expected to maintain its growth due to the iteration of aviation equipment, the release of guided equipment demand, and the introduction of new domain and quality equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The increasing complexity of geopolitical situations is driving demand for specialized equipment, with domestic manufacturers having advantages in performance and pricing, which is likely to enhance China's global market share in specialized equipment [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is maintaining a bullish trend in November, with a focus on data impacts throughout the week [1][2][3] - October saw significant fluctuations in gold prices, with a peak at 4380 and a drop to 3888, leading to a consolidation phase entering November [2][3] - Key economic indicators such as PMI, ADP, unemployment claims, and non-farm payroll data are expected to influence gold and silver prices in the early part of November [2][3] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading remains bullish, with attention on the Shanghai gold price at 910 and the Rongtong gold price at 905, looking for opportunities in the initial week of November [4] - Silver is also in a consolidation phase, with a focus on maintaining support at 45.5 and potential resistance at 49.5, indicating a range-bound trading strategy [4][5] - The oil market has shown a recovery, with prices rebounding from a low of 59.6 to around 61.2, suggesting a continuation of bullish sentiment if the previous high of 63 is broken [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for gold and silver is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices having dropped sharply from historical highs, while silver shows signs of stabilization and potential recovery [1][2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has seen a decline of nearly $500 from its historical high of $4382, reaching a low of $3886 before showing signs of a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a correction phase, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to result in a rate cut [2][5]. - Key price levels to watch include resistance around $4000 and support at $3886, with a small triangle pattern indicating potential breakout opportunities [3][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have stabilized after a decline, finding support around $45.5 and showing a bullish reversal with a hammer candlestick formation [6][8]. - The market sentiment suggests a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions above $47.5 in anticipation of Federal Reserve announcements [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are oscillating. The easing of trade concerns and the escalation of geopolitical situations have led to a recent rebound in oil prices. However, in the long - term, due to the loose supply - demand pattern of crude oil, the long - term oil price will remain weak, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. For both crude oil and fuel oil, the current operation strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Market - **Market Influencing Factors**: The first round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is expected to ease trade concerns and boost the oil market. Geopolitically, the cancellation of the Trump - Putin meeting and US sanctions on Russian oil producers may disrupt the global crude oil supply chain. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ has reached a principle agreement to increase production slightly in November, while global crude oil consumption has gradually declined since September, with a drop of 1 - 3 million barrels per day in the off - season compared to the peak season [3] - **Price and Spread Data**: SC crude oil closed at 468.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.86%; WTI crude oil was at 61.44 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 64.92 dollars/barrel, unchanged. There are also various spread data such as SC - WTI, SC - Brent, etc. [3] - **Spot Price**: Oman crude oil was at 68.1 dollars/barrel, up 6.87%; Russian ESPO was at 60.63 dollars/barrel, up 3.16%; Brent Dtd was at 62.39 dollars/barrel, up 5.75% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: US EIA data shows that crude oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.23% to 422,824 thousand barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 0.98% to 216,679 thousand barrels; distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.26% to 117,030 thousand barrels; US production decreased by 0.05% to 13,629 thousand barrels per day [4] 3.2 Fuel Oil Market - **Inventory and Trade Data**: As of the week ending October 22, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.036 million barrels or 8.1% to 23.027 million barrels (3.63 million tons). In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 543,400 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month and down 4.11% year - on - year; exports were 2.2363 million tons, up 36.09% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative exports of China's bonded marine fuel oil were 15.322 million tons, up 1.53% year - on - year [3] - **Market Situation**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, consumption from power generation terminals will gradually decline after the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Asian market structure is weakening, and the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore in October is expected to increase. The fuel oil market generally follows the short - term sharp rebound of international oil prices [3] - **Price and Spread Data**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,842 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,257 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. There are also various spread data such as FU - SC, LU - SC, LU - FU, etc. [3] - **Spot Price**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 395 dollars/ton, up 2.33%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 442.5 dollars/ton, up 1.36% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% to 23,699 thousand barrels. The exchange warehouse receipts of FU fuel oil increased by 26.76% to 37,890 [4] 3.3 Macro Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9417, up 0.01%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was at 4.02%, up 0.25%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI index was at 1,991, down 3.21% [4]