内外兼修——2026 年宏观经济与资本市场展望 20251228 摘要 2026 年全球制造业上行趋势及美联储降息将支撑中国出口，AI 投资成 为资本开支亮点，共同推动出口需求攀升，但需关注美国库存周期变化。 中国应对美国关税经验丰富，关税对出口影响减弱，当前产能出海策略 聚焦"一带一路"，补充品牌海外渗透率，带动国内资本品和中间品出 口，对国内经济具积极意义。 房地产市场深度调整，投资降幅收窄，但房价下跌和居民资产负债表恶 化可能抑制消费，需警惕房地产市场走势及其潜在风险。 耐用品补贴政策对消费拉动效果减弱，提高居民收入、释放教育、文娱、 育幼、医疗和养老等服务类消费潜力是扩大内需的关键。 广义财政收支面临困境，地方政府债务风险增加，需通过中央政府举债 加杠杆对冲下行压力，避免经济硬着陆，并进行财税改革和财富再分配。 2026 年中国财政策略应保持保量提质态势，中央主导稳增长，地方聚 焦化解债务，广义财政支出增速预计小幅退坡至 4%-5%。 2035 年前 GDP 平均增速需保持在 4.17%左右，2026 年短期经济增长 目标可能小幅调整，出口和服务消费有望成为经济增长的重要支柱，优 先配置权益类资产和与 ...

2025.12.26 根据财政部数据，今年前11个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入为240790亿 元，同比下降约0.2%；广义财政支出340662亿元，同比增长约4.5%；广义财政支出超出收入99872亿 元，同比增长约17.9%。 上述广义财政收入并不包括中央对地方转移支付、债务等收入，一般来说算上各类收入，最终财政收支 能达到平衡。 今年前11个月广义财政收入与去年同期基本持平情形下，广义财政支出保持4.5%增速，与今年经济增 速（5%左右）相近。这体现了今年更加积极财政政策落地，发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的 重要作用，财政支出保持一定力度，也能推动今年经济平稳运行。 今年以来广义财政收入接近于年初官方预期。 根据《关于2024年中央和地方预算执行情况与2025年中央和地方预算草案的报告》（下称《报告》）， 2025年全年广义财政收入预计增长约0.2%，而目前前11个月实际下降约0.2%，实际增速与预计增速相 近。 本文字数：1647，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 根据财政部数据，今年前11个月，全国政府性基金预算收入同比下降4.9%，低于年初0.7%增速预 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[5] - National general public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[5] - By September 2025, the completion rate of general public budget revenue was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%[6] Fiscal Trends - General fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, rebounding by 2.9 percentage points from August[6] - General fiscal expenditure in September 2025 grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to August[6] - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 10.3 trillion yuan by September 28, 2025, with an issuance progress of 87%[8] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds, including new general and special bonds, totaled 10.3 trillion yuan, which is 2.8 trillion yuan more than the previous year[8] - The issuance of new special bonds was 36,612 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83%, lagging behind the same period in 2024 by over 6 percentage points[8] - A new policy-oriented financial tool of 500 billion yuan was established by the end of September 2025, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence by mid-October[11] Budget Completion and Spending - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure in September 2025 was 9.7%, consistent with the five-year average[26] - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% in September 2025, down over 19 percentage points from August[34] - The completion rate for government fund income in September 2025 was 6.8%, higher than the 5.7% in 2024 but below the five-year average of 7.1%[18]

Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[2] Group 2: Trends in Fiscal Income and Expenditure - General fiscal income growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in August 2025, down 3.3 percentage points from July[4] - General fiscal expenditure growth also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July[4] - Government fund income fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the slowdown in general fiscal income growth[20] Group 3: Government Debt and Support Measures - The large-scale support phase from government debt financing is nearing its end, with net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaling 8.5 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025[9] - The issuance progress of special bonds was 72%, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024[9] - Future fiscal support for the economy may weaken as the issuance of new government debt approaches its limit[3] Group 4: Economic Implications - The decline in fiscal support and the impact of external factors may lead to downward pressure on economic growth[3] - Retail growth for related products has slowed since June due to promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies[3] - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure was 57.3%, slightly below the five-year average of 58.8%[2]

Fiscal Performance - In August 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 12,359 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%[3] - The national general public budget expenditure in August was 18,587 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[8] - From January to August 2025, the completion rate of the general public budget revenue was 47.8%, consistent with the same period in 2024[1] - The completion rate of general public budget expenditure was 57.3%, which is higher than the same period in 2024[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in August 2025 was 10,152 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[3] - Cumulative tax revenue from January to August 2025 achieved a positive growth of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth since December 2023[4] - Individual income tax grew by 8.9% from January to August 2025, reflecting improved tax collection efforts[4] Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue in August 2025 was 2,207 billion CNY, declining by 3.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend since May 2025[3] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to high base effects from 2024 and improved management of non-tax revenue[5] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in August 2025 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, primarily due to a drop in land transfer income[10] - Government fund budget expenditure in August 2025 increased by 19.8% year-on-year, indicating strong spending in infrastructure and public projects[10] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the implementation of new policy financial tools to support fiscal stability and economic recovery[1] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between fiscal revenue and expenditure to ensure sustainable economic growth[1]

Core Insights - The general public budget revenue has shown significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% from January to July, marking the first positive growth this year, indicating economic resilience [2][4][14] - The land market remains sluggish, with government fund budget revenue growth weak, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][8] - Fiscal expenditure has ramped up, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, the highest level in recent years, driven primarily by central government spending [3][10][14] - The structure of fiscal expenditure is optimizing, with a focus on social welfare and education, alongside new policies aimed at supporting families and boosting consumption [3][12] Revenue Analysis - From January to July, the general public budget revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, with July showing a 2.6% increase, the highest monthly growth rate [2][4] - Tax revenue recovery is a key driver, with personal income tax, domestic VAT, and domestic consumption tax showing year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [6][8] Land Market Insights - The government fund budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7% from January to July, with July's growth rate slowing significantly to 8.9% [2][8] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 12% year-on-year drop in property development investment from January to July [8][10] Expenditure Insights - Broad fiscal expenditure growth reached 9.3%, significantly higher than the previous year's decline of 2.0%, with central government expenditure growing by 33.9% [3][10] - The issuance of government bonds is at a rapid pace, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan issued from January to July, a 33.8% increase year-on-year [10][12] Policy and Structural Changes - Recent fiscal policies have focused on social welfare, with expenditures in social security, education, and health exceeding 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a commitment to improving living standards [12][14] - New initiatives such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education have been introduced to stimulate consumption and support families [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight decline in general fiscal revenue in the first half of the year, general fiscal expenditure reached a historical high, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, general fiscal revenue was approximately 135,008 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of about 0.6% [3]. - General fiscal expenditure amounted to nearly 188,800 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.9%, significantly higher than the economic growth rate of 5.3% [2][3]. - The fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by 52,536 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 45% [3]. Policy Measures and Economic Impact - The central government has emphasized the need for sustained and timely fiscal policy adjustments to support economic stability, particularly in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that the fiscal policy has been more aggressive, contributing to a stable economic environment despite pressures [2][4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and enhance the efficiency of fund utilization to address the fiscal gap [7][11]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue in the first half of the year was 92,915 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a mismatch with nominal GDP growth [4][6]. - Non-tax revenue grew by 3.7% to 22,700 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [7]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to factors such as tax cuts and changes in the tax base, particularly in traditional industries [6]. Future Outlook - The fiscal space for the second half of the year is estimated to be 60,700 billion yuan, with significant remaining quotas for deficits and special bonds [9]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a record monthly issuance of approximately 6,169 billion yuan in July [10]. - The government aims to enhance the management and efficiency of special bonds to ensure effective fund allocation for key projects [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, both significantly higher than the previous month [2][7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, above the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [2][7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit reaching -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period in previous years [12][24][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in the same period of 2024 [12][24][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the 94.4% and 60.7% in the same periods of 2022 and 2023, respectively [3][18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [3][18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June 2025, while general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.3% [25][31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [48][66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding support from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, with expenditure increasing by 12.9%, showing improvements compared to March [3][8]. - The budget completion rates for broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 33% and 28.4%, respectively, both higher than the average of the past five years [3][8]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The broad fiscal deficit reached -2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, exceeding the average deficit of -1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong support from government debt financing [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% in the same period of 2024 [10]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow, with a current issuance scale of 1.37 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 31%, lower than the previous two years [13]. - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement in growth rate compared to March [12][19]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the initiation of "incremental policies," with financial policies leading the way, and highlights the importance of monitoring the pace and direction of future fiscal expenditures [4][15]. - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" is seen as a window for accelerating the implementation of established policies and strengthening the reserve of incremental policies [15].