Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views Plastic - In the transition phase between the off - season and peak season, the plastic 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The recommended range for attention is 7200 - 7500, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Sino - US talks, domestic policies, and crude oil price fluctuations [5]. PP - The PP futures face significant upward pressure. In the short term, the PP2509 contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended range for attention is 6900 - 7200, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for plastic [7]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7351 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average price of LDPE was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a 1.05% week - on - week increase; HDPE was 8012.50 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7525.29 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.29 yuan/ton, a 5.94% decrease, and the 6 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton (down 48) [5][9]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.29 per barrel, down $1.06 from the previous week; Brent crude was at $66.13 per barrel, down $0.19. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (up 20) [5][19]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 164 yuan/ton, up 188 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PE was 930 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will strengthen and that of coal - based PE will weaken [24]. - **Supply**: China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.20%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase. The maintenance loss was 7.22 tons, down 0.65 tons [27]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.82%, up 0.75%; PE packaging film was 49.07%, down 0.23%; and PE pipes was 30.00%, up 1.00% [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.86 tons, down 0.71 tons from the previous week, a 1.23% decrease [5][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 7345 lots, up 1523 lots from the previous week [41]. PP Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7084 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7246.67 yuan/ton (unchanged). The PP basis was 163 yuan/ton (down 22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan/ton (down 2) [7][45]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: Similar to plastic, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [5][58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 149.67 yuan/ton, up 193.84 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PP was 439.56 yuan/ton, down 79.73 yuan/ton [7][62]. - **Supply**: China's PP petrochemical enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.91%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase; PP powder was 7.00 tons, a 3.41% increase [7][67]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate was 49.35% (up 0.30%). The operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes were 41.40% (up 0.30%), 61.30% (up 0.33%), 56.73% (unchanged), and 36.30% (up 0.07%) respectively [7][74]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - $525.85 per ton, down $5.42 from the previous week; the export profit was - $12.76 per ton, down $3.02. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [78]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.75 tons (+0.07%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.60% week - on - week; the trader inventory decreased by 4.06%; and the port inventory decreased by 0.98%. The finished - product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises was 913.87 tons, a 2.70% decrease, and the BOPP raw - material inventory was 8.96 days, a 0.11% increase [80][82]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On August 5, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 12860 lots, up 320 lots from the previous week [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/30 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/07/2 3 801 2417 2405 2505 2530 2485 2638 273 330 66 -12 -1237 2025/07/2 4 801 2468 2448 2505 2530 2485 2638 280 333 47 -20 -1237 2025/07/2 5 801 2488 2480 2540 2530 2485 2650 280 333 86 -25 -1237 2025/07/2 8 801 2397 2400 2540 2530 2490 2640 276 333 31 -17 -1237 2025/07/2 9 801 2395 2408 2520 2520 2490 2625 276 333 31 -18 -1237 日度变化 0 -2 8 -20 -10 0 -15 0 0 0 -1 0 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, both industrial silicon and polysilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 9,655 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.98%, and the position decreased by 2,335 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,507 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 275 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated upwards, with the main contract 2509 closing at 49,105 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.99%, and the position increased by 20,122 lots to 192,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 3,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The energy bureau issued a notice on coal mine production review, and the cancellation of electricity price subsidies in Xinjiang strengthened the logic of rising industrial silicon costs. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the signal of resolutely combating involution in multiple industries, giving market bulls sufficient confidence, and the double-silicon futures continued to reach new highs. Supported by macro - policies, the futures are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward pull expectation before the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,110 yuan/ton on the 21st to 9,470 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 360 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also generally increased, with the price increase ranging from 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -185 yuan/ton to -275 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 45,660 yuan/ton on the 21st to 4,9105 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 3,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of N-type granular silicon increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P-type polysilicon increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -2,160 yuan/ton to -3,865 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 88 lots, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is currently in a period of negative factors being realized. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [2]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases [2]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [2]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily changes of other prices were generally small, with the most significant being a 3 - unit increase in Jiangsu spot price and a 5 - unit decrease in South China spot price. The daily change of the盘面MTO profit was - 11 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The most significant daily change was a 25 - unit decrease in the East China LD price. The import profit remained at - 177 on July 17, and the daily change of the main futures price was 1 [2]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 740. The most significant daily changes were a 20 - unit decrease in Shandong propylene price and a 10 - unit decrease in East China PP price. The export profit remained at 4, and the daily change of the main futures price was 7 [2]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda remained unchanged. There were no significant daily changes in other prices, and all daily changes were 0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is at a high level, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 3475 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; and major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week. The forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.5GW, a 3.36% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 181,300 tons, a 5.67% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,220 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4955 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support has strengthened, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of most futures contracts have increased, and the spot prices of some specifications have remained stable [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory have all decreased [15]. - **Production**: The production of some sample enterprises has increased, while the production of others has decreased [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of some regions and specifications have changed slightly [15]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry has increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon wafers has decreased, while the inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories has increased [17]. - **Production**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand balance shows a certain degree of imbalance, with supply exceeding demand in some months [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: High - altitude operation is recommended as geopolitical premiums are being squeezed out, and supply pressure is rising. Consider short - selling with a light position. SC should be monitored in the range of [485 - 500] [1][5] - **LPG**: The market is in consolidation. Sell call options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4100 - 4200] [1][7] - **L**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Upstream enterprises can sell - hedge when appropriate. L should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][11] - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Downstream enterprises can buy - hedge when appropriate. PP should be monitored in the range of [6900 - 7000] [1][13] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. The upward driving force is insufficient. Participate in the short - term. V should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [1][15] - **PX**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out long positions on pullbacks. PX should be monitored in the range of [6500 - 6620] [1][16] - **PTA**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. TA should be monitored in the range of [4590 - 4690] [1][19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. EG should be monitored in the range of [4220 - 4280] [1][21] - **Glass**: The price is expected to decline under pressure. FG should be monitored in the range of [960 - 990], and it will face resistance at the 1000 - level [2][26] - **Soda Ash**: The market remains weak. After a narrow - range shock, it will continue the bearish trend, suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. SA should be monitored in the range of [1140 - 1180] [2][29] - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving averages. SH should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2310] [2][32] - **Methanol**: Bearish consolidation. Consider laying out short positions at high levels. MA should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2290] [2][33] - **Urea**: The price is relatively weak, but the downside space is limited. Be cautious when short - selling. UR should be monitored in the range of [1620 - 1650] [2] - **Asphalt**: Bearish consolidation. The valuation is high, and the cost is falling. Try short - selling with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3475 - 3545] [2] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: EIA's latest monthly report shows that US crude oil production will decrease from 13.42 million barrels per day this year to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, while global crude oil production is expected to increase to 104.4 million barrels per day [5] - **Demand**: In May, China's crude oil imports were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 740,000 barrels per day and raises the demand growth in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.246 million barrels to 108.8 million barrels [5] LPG - **Cost and Profit**: As of June 11, the PDH device profit was - 1016 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit was - 210.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: As of the week ending June 13, the total LPG commodity volume was 529,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8500 tons, and the civil LPG commodity volume was 228,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4100 tons [8] - **Demand**: As of the week ending June 13, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil were 64.30%, 59.70%, and 47.14% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.29pct, + 4.98pct, and - 0.40pct [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 13, refinery inventories were 169,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7200 tons, and port inventories were 2.928 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,400 tons [8] L - **Supply**: This week's production increased by 3% month - on - month, and with many downstream device restart plans, production is expected to continue to increase [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventories have started to accumulate, and in the off - season of agricultural film demand, downstream restocking motivation is insufficient, with a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [11] PP - **Supply**: Weekly production has increased, but with more short - term maintenance devices next week, production is expected to decline. There is high pressure from new device production in June - July, and supply is abundant [13] - **Demand**: It is the domestic off - season, export margins are low, and overseas market transactions are weak, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand [13] - **Inventory**: There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [13] PVC - **Supply**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend. A 300,000 - ton new device of Shaanxi Jintai was put into operation at the beginning of the month, and more device maintenance is expected next week, with a possible further reduction in supply [15] - **Demand**: Southern demand has declined marginally due to the rainy season, but weekly export orders have remained above 20,000 tons. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand [15] PX - **Supply**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased, leading to increased supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 83.4% (+ 4.8pct), and the weekly output is 700,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons) [17] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and there are production plans in June, with improved demand expectations [17] - **Inventory**: In April, PX inventories decreased to 4.2503 million tons (- 427,700 tons), which is lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in the past five years [17] PTA - **Supply**: PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 79.0% (+ 1.4pct), and the weekly output is 1.371 million tons (+ 23,000 tons) [19] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise, and terminal weaving orders have decreased [19] - **Inventory**: PTA social inventories have continued to decline. The available days of social inventories are 12.3 days (- 0.3 days), and the social inventory in April was 4.25 million tons (- 554,000 tons) [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Supply**: There has been an increase in device maintenance, and the arrival volume is low, alleviating supply pressure. The weekly maintenance loss is 290,000 tons (+ 5000 tons), and the daily output is 47,200 tons (+ 1000 tons) [22] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise [22] - **Inventory**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend, and port inventories are low compared to the same period [22] Glass - **Macro Environment**: The decline in China's PPI has widened, and the deflation pattern in industrial products has not been alleviated. The construction PMI has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 51, and the mid - term demand for glass is shrinking [26] - **Supply**: In the short - term rainy season and high - temperature period, coal - fired production lines still have profits, making it difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. Supply - side start - up and daily melting volume are fluctuating at a low level [26] - **Demand**: Upstream inventories have started to increase, mid - stream trader inventories are being de - stocked, and downstream deep - processing orders are lower than the same period. Spot market quotes have generally been lowered [26] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Alkali plant maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and new production capacity is being put into production, increasing market supply pressure [29] - **Demand**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased, and the photovoltaic installation boom has subsided, resulting in insufficient rigid demand support for soda ash [29] - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods [29] Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There has been a lot of device maintenance in the caustic soda market recently, but the maintenance scale in June is smaller than last month, and there is still pressure from new production. Supply is expected to gradually recover in the middle and later part of the month [32] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated. The production of downstream alumina in Shandong supports prices, but non - aluminum markets are观望. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices, and overall demand support for prices is limited [32] - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda sample enterprise factory inventories are 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.3% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: The profit of coal - made methanol is relatively good, and the device operating load remains high. The expected arrival of Iranian methanol has been gradually realized, and non - Iranian supplies have increased, increasing supply pressure [2] - **Demand**: The operating load of MTO devices has continued to recover, but with poor profits, the space for further load increase is limited. Traditional demand is in a seasonal off - season [2] - **Inventory**: Inventories are accumulating, and the arbitrage window between coastal and inland methanol remains closed, with inland enterprise inventories increasing [2] Urea - **Supply**: Daily production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is relatively large [2] - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for domestic agricultural urea consumption. After the end of the southern rainy season, the demand for top - dressing corn and fertilizing rice in the north is expected to be realized, and industrial demand is neutral. Fertilizer exports have grown rapidly this year [2] - **Cost**: The overall cost is weak, but there is still bottom - end support [2] Asphalt - **Supply**: Supply has increased, and inventories have accumulated [2] - **Demand**: There is rigid demand in the north, but demand in the south is expected to decline due to the rainy season, showing a "strong north, weak south" pattern [2]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 早盘提示 Morning session notice | | | | 【行情复盘】 上一交易日期货主力 2509 合约价格午后价格大幅上行，夜盘小幅下调，最后收于 2832 元/吨，上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅 0.60%。成交量 95.49 万手，较上一交易日有小幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 下降；持仓 38.42 万手，降 1735 手；成交额 537.64 亿元，较上一交易日有小幅下 | | | | | 降。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、上周氧化铝国内工厂库存 158.5 万吨，环比下降 1.46%；市场库存 7.6 万吨，环 | | | | | 比增加 52%。 | | | | | 2、本周国内冶金级氧化铝产量 163.74 万吨，环比下降 4.6%，周开工利用率为 77.2%， | | | | | 下降 7.36%。 | | | | | 3、成本利润方面，本周国内氧化铝行业平均参考生产现金成本 3332.86 元/吨，环 | | 氧化 ...