沪指时隔9个月重新站上3500点大关，两市成交额连续31天突破1万亿，这一振奋人心的消息也刺激着广大投资者。 然而，在本轮放量向上攻到3500点后，不少投资者却陷入了迷茫。还是因为目前板块轮动过于激烈，医药、科技、新能源、银行你方唱罢我登场，也让部分 拥有"选择困难症"的投资者不知如何是好。 那我们不妨看看这一资金的动向，为自己的投资做一个参考！ "聪明强"竟布局这一板块 北向资金一直被咱们戏称为聪明资金。主要是它们拥有顶尖的投研团队，往往能在行情启动前提前布局，获利了结的时间也相对精准。市场上有一批北向 的"小迷弟" 因为北向资金在2024年8月之前的资金流向都是公开的，它也成为对普通投资者最友好的机构资金，也是大家唯一可以跟踪的的资金指标。 数据来源：Wind 截至2025.07.10 两大原因揭秘北向意图 北向不会无缘无故布局建筑装饰，目前看最重要的依据应该有两个： 1、建筑行业是"反内卷"的大户 从前年开始，新房销售数据与新项目落成的数据都较为低迷，整体房地产行业发展陷入停滞。而建筑装饰作为与地产强相关的行业，其实供大于求的情况早 已出现。 国家发改委本次提出整治"内卷式"竞争方案：加力破除地方保护和 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需双弱局面未变，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下降，但钢厂盈利状况较好， 需求减量空间有限。同时，港口到货虽迎来回升，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运大幅减量，海外矿石 供应迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋弱，供应同样走弱。目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面并无实 质性 ...

21世纪经济报道记者易妍君广州报道 7月9日晚，红塔证券公布了2025年半年度业绩预告，为首家预披露上半年经营数据的上市券商。 红塔证券预计，2025年上半年，公司实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为6.51亿元到6.96亿元，同比增 长45%到55%。 7月10日，红塔证券大涨6.33%，Wind券商指数上涨了1.21%。 事实上，6月以来，券商板块的活跃度明显提升。在业内人士看来，政策利好、市场活跃度提升、流动 性宽松等因素共同助推了券商板块上涨。3500点之上，券商板块估值有望回归。 上半年业绩预增 步入上市公司半年报披露期，红塔证券率先释放业绩向好的信号。 据红塔证券最新预计，其2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为6.51亿元到6.96亿元，与上 年同期相比将增加2.02亿元到2.47亿元，同比增长45%到55%。 相应的，红塔证券的经营业绩大幅好转。2023年度，红塔证券的归母净利润较2022年大增710.57%； 2024年度，该券商规模净利润较2023年增长了144.66%。 从整个行业看，上市券商2025年上半年的经营业绩或将保持增长势头。 红塔证券预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.89%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. It shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. However, the low inventory, recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, and policy conditions should be closely monitored [4][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.16%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price to maintain a relatively strong trend, but overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [6][41]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose significantly with a daily increase of 3.67%, trading volume increased while open interest was stable. Ore demand has some resilience, and optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the short - term upward trend. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially in the context of weak supply and demand, and caution is needed regarding the upward height, as well as the possible shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [6][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in first - and second - tier cities increased by over 40%. The land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 5.5%. The concentration of land transfer fees in the top 20 cities increased to 68%, and the land transfer fees for residential - related land in Hangzhou and Beijing exceeded 10 billion yuan [8]. - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [9]. - **Mineral Exploration**: In the first half of 2025, 38 new mineral deposits were discovered in China, a year - on - year increase of 31%, including 25 large and medium - sized ones. Non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. Social capital investment in exploration reached 3.359 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 48% of the total [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, are provided, along with their price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Contract Information**: The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented [15]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][18][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [22][23][29]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and the operating rate and profitability of electric furnaces of steel mills [32][34][35]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both weak, with production and demand decreasing. The low inventory, policy benefits, and strong raw materials support the short - term upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand have weakened, with production and demand decreasing. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price, but overseas tariff risks should be watched out for [41]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have weakened, with inventory increasing and consumption decreasing. The short - term upward trend is supported by demand resilience and optimistic sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially [41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理，小幅回调。股市全市场成交额 15274 亿元，较上日放量 528 亿 元，全市场超 3300 只个股下跌。消息面，统计局公布了 ...

各位朋友，早上好，这里是帮主郑重的盘前策略时间。接下来咱们来聊聊7月9日A股的走势。最近市场就像坐过山车，一边是特朗普的关税大棒搅得全球供 应链不得安宁，另一边A股却在3500点附近蓄势待发，这种冰火两重天的局面，背后到底藏着什么玄机？ 资金面的信号有点分化。北向资金昨天净流出18.7亿元，宁德时代、中际旭创这些成长股被抛售，但主力资金却在悄悄布局光伏、电力设备等中报预增板 块，单日流入超过百亿。这说明市场虽然对短期风险有所担忧，但中长期资金已经在为业绩行情做准备了。另外，7月7日单日就有31只新基金发行，6月私 募备案数量高达1100只，这些新资金就像蓄水池里的水，7-8月建仓期可能会给市场带来源源不断的增量资金。 外围市场的影响正在减弱。虽然特朗普对日韩加征关税导致美股大跌，但A股昨天却逆势上涨，上证指数逼近3500点。这说明国内投资者对政策的信心在增 强，市场的独立性越来越强。不过咱们还是得关注国际大宗商品价格的变化，比如纽约期铜昨天暴涨10%，直接刺激了有色金属板块，相关企业的业绩可能 会超预期。 先来看消息面。昨天最重磅的消息莫过于特朗普宣布将原定于今天生效的"对等关税"暂缓到8月1日。这对出口占比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.13%, with volume and open interest contracting. In the current situation, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level with few real - world contradictions. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the expectation of policy benefits is fermenting. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.14%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, after the end of the "exemption period", the tariff disturbance reappears, and the market sentiment weakens. The iron ore price has fallen after fluctuating at a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. In the short term, the iron ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Tariff announcement**: US President Trump announced on July 7, 2025, that the US will impose tariffs on products from Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Tunisia starting from August 1, 2025, with rates ranging from 25% to 36% [6]. - **Excavator sales**: In June 2025, 18,804 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to June 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [7]. - **Iron ore production of Ferrexpo**: Due to the Ukrainian government's suspension of the VAT refund policy, Ferrexpo's operating cash flow was under pressure in Q2 2025. The company reduced the pellet production line from two to one, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore production [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 yuan. The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of hot - rolled coil in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports increased by 1 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the SGX swap and the Platts Index decreased [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price was 3,063 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 954,572 lots, a decrease of 271,730 lots, and the open interest was 2,168,547 lots, a decrease of 28,783 lots [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price was 3,191 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume was 341,788 lots, a decrease of 148,639 lots, and the open interest was 1,593,691 lots, an increase of 8,136 lots [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price was 733.0 yuan, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 233,496 lots, a decrease of 57,393 lots, and the open interest was 655,157 lots, an increase of 7,312 lots [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [18][19][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has little change. Supply continues to rise to a high level this year, while demand remains weak in the off - season. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply and demand are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Policy benefits are expected, but the price may switch to the industrial logic. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [36]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased again. The terminal consumption of ore has declined slightly. The supply has shrunk. The ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿高位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 政策利好预期驱动钢价震荡走高，但螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱势，上 行驱动不强，相对利好则是低库存格局未变，多空因素博弈下钢价维持 震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.62%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供需两端平稳运行为主，基本面并未好转，库存持续累库，但 政策利好预期再度发酵，乐观情绪支撑下热卷价格短期维持偏强运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，政策利好预期再现，乐观情绪发酵，支撑矿价震荡上行，但矿石供 需格局在走弱，上行驱动不强，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 观点参考 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡整理，全天呈现冲高回落的走 ...

数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 热轧卷板社会库存 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热轧卷板周度数据（20250704） | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周值 | 环比变化 | 上月末值 | 本月变化 | 同期值 | 同期变化 | | 供给 | 周度产量 | 328.14 | 0.90 | 327.24 | 0.90 | 326.29 | 1.85 | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | 90.29 | -0.54 | 90.83 | -0.54 | 89.08 | 1.21 | | 需求 | 表观需求量 | 324.37 | -1.88 | 326.25 | -1.88 | 317.70 | 6.67 | | | 冷轧卷板周产量 | 88.23 | 0.17 | 88.06 | ...