以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀 社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 文/ 中国人民大学国家一级教授、经济研究所联席所长、中国宏观经济论坛 （CMF）联合创始人、联席主席 杨瑞龙 在 探 寻 价 格 走 出 低 迷 格 局 的 思 路 时 ， 尽 管 宏 观 经 济 政 策 具 备 一 定 调 控 效 能，但单纯依赖宏观政策显然不足以破解目前的困局。近年来，尽管财政 政策持续积极、货币政策保持相对宽松，政策力度不可谓不大，然而其对 提 振 需 求 的 实 际 效 果 却 未 达 到 预 期 。 这 并 非 否 定 宏 观 政 策 的 重 要 性 ， 相 反，仍需进一步强化宏观经济政策的刺激力度。 从经济学视角考察，价格持续低迷可归因于供需两端：需求不足或供给过度。 从需求端分析，需求不足并非指意愿层面的需求不足，而是有效需 求不足。意愿需求也被成为瓦尔拉斯需求函数， 它描述 ...

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 杨瑞龙 中国人民大学国家一级教授、经济研究所联席所长、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF） 联合创始人、联席主席 数据表明，在连续三年左右时间内，CPI一直在零左右徘徊，PPI一直负增长，国民总支出平减指数 连续8个季度为负，这反映了宏观经济基本面 "在底部徘徊"，仍处于探底之中。 从经济学视角考 察，价格持续低迷可归因于供需两端：需求不足或供给过度。 从需求端分析，需求不足并非指意愿 层面的需求不足，而是有效需求不足。意愿需求也被成为瓦尔拉斯需求函数， 它描述效用最大消费 束与商品价格及财富水平之间关系的函数，可通过效用函数的最优解直接推导得出。有效需求作为凯 恩斯主义的核心概念，它指的是有支付能力的需求，即强调厂商与家庭在需求决策时遵循双重决策规 则，其需求不仅取决于价格水平，也受制于收入约束。只有厘清需求背 ...

如今的房地产行业虽说没之前那么景气了，但依旧是人们关注的焦点。 尤其是28号曝出曾经提出"小目标"的王健林被限制高消费，更是全网关注的对象。 搞得很多人心里犯嘀咕，再加上网上流传关于楼市的小视频什么说法都有。 这房地产还能不能碰了？郎咸平教授带领团队展开调查。 直言这类内容不仅对政府政策产生极大误导，还干扰消费者与投资者的判断，力求还原市场真相。 团队对海量短视频进行全面量化分析，筛选出189个内容独立的视频。 这些视频宣称北京、上海、广州、深圳四座城市楼盘跌幅达40%至73%，并将降价原因归咎于房地产不景气、开发商资金链断裂跑路等。 但经深入核查，郎咸平教授明确指出，这些说法均为博流量而编造的谎言。他将误导性短视频归纳为五大骗局，首当其冲的就是公寓降价骗局，涉及52个案 例。 以上海某短视频为例，其声称当地楼盘暴跌73%，但查证显示，70年产权的正常住宅价格未降，降价的实为公寓。 另有视频称某海景豪宅暴跌50%至60%，而该区域70年产权住宅单价稳定在13.9万元/平方米，所谓"七字头单价"的降价房源均为商业公寓。 这些公寓常以低价为噱头，通过对比住宅价格或渲染开发商跑路氛围制造降价假象，实际上公寓价格波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of economic thought through paradigm shifts and integrations, emphasizing that each theoretical change in economics occurs through these two stages, which is distinct from the natural sciences [19]. Group 1: Paradigm Shifts in Economic Thought - The first paradigm shift in economics occurred in the 1770s, marked by the publication of Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776, which transitioned the focus from "wealth management" to "wealth production" [20]. - The second paradigm shift took place in the 1870s with the rise of the marginal utility school, which challenged the classical economics' labor theory of value and introduced the "subjective value" paradigm [43]. Group 2: Paradigm Integrations in Economic Thought - The first paradigm integration occurred in the 1840s with John Stuart Mill's "Principles of Political Economy," which combined the "wealth management" and "wealth production" paradigms into a complementary theoretical framework [32]. - The second paradigm integration happened in the late 19th century with Alfred Marshall's "Principles of Economics," which synthesized classical economics' "objective value" and the marginal utility school's "subjective value" into what is known as "neoclassical economics" [51][52].

Group 1 - The core task remains to boost effective demand, highlighting the increasing necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter [1][8] - The economic growth rate for China in the first half of the year was 5.3%, achieved amidst challenges such as global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1][2] - The August data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in various economic indicators compared to July, suggesting a potential for policy intervention [2][3] Group 2 - The social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan in August, but this represents a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand [3][4] - Government bond financing has decreased, and the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters and months [5][6] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and real estate investment declining by 12.9% [6][7] Group 3 - The investment sentiment among enterprises remains subdued, correlating with the slow growth in fixed asset investment observed this year [4][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with certain sectors like sports and home appliances performing well [7][8] - The necessity for structural monetary policies is increasing, with potential measures including the restart of government bond purchases to inject medium to long-term liquidity [8]

Group 1 - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is "correction" rather than "stimulation," aiming to reshape the logic of industrial competition [2][6] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on prices is structural and mild, with future price trends dependent on the strength of demand recovery and the pace of policy coordination [2][6] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price disorderly competition in certain sectors rather than driving up prices, as the fundamental factor determining prices remains supply and demand [2][3] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, signals of the "anti-involution" policy have been continuously reinforced, with various measures taken to address "involution-style" competition [3] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law prohibits selling goods below cost, providing a legal basis for combating "involution-style" competition [3] - Recent data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has maintained a low level of -3.6% year-on-year in July, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [4] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4] - The improvement in PPI is primarily seen in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending [5] - The transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective, as insufficient terminal consumer demand limits companies' pricing power [5]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price disorderly competition rather than driving up prices, as the fundamental factor determining prices remains supply and demand, with current domestic effective demand still insufficient [1] - The "anti-involution" policy has been reinforced throughout the year, with various measures such as legal revisions and policy implementations to combat low-price competition, including the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the draft Price Law [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of -3.6% in July, but the month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% in June to -0.2%, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices due to policy effects [2] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors, as well as seasonal increases in service consumption [2] - The improvement in PPI is primarily seen in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending, indicating that the transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective [3] - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is to correct rather than stimulate, focusing on market-oriented and legal methods to shift competition from price wars to quality, service, and innovation, promoting a healthier market structure [4]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has shown a decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% [1][4] - There is a discrepancy between the CPI statistics and individual consumer perceptions of price changes, which can be attributed to differences in consumption patterns, frequency of purchases, and the comparison of price points [2][3] Group 1: CPI and Consumer Perception - CPI is a comprehensive statistical indicator that reflects the price level changes of various consumer goods and services, covering eight major categories and 268 basic classifications [1] - Individual consumer experiences of price changes can vary significantly based on their consumption structure and regional differences, leading to a "temperature difference" in perception [2] - Consumers are generally more sensitive to price changes in frequently purchased essential goods, while changes in prices of infrequently purchased items may go unnoticed [2] Group 2: Impacts of Price Changes - A moderate decline in prices can lower consumer costs and enhance purchasing power, allowing consumers to allocate more funds to other areas such as cultural and tourism consumption [3][4] - However, sustained price declines can lead to negative economic consequences, including reduced investment, delayed consumer spending, and potential increases in unemployment, creating a feedback loop that further suppresses demand and prices [4] - Maintaining a moderate increase in prices is beneficial for economic stability, and recent policies aimed at boosting effective demand have shown positive results, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May, the highest monthly growth rate in 2024 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of 31 provinces in China for the first half of the year shows significant competition, particularly between Hubei and Henan, with Hubei rapidly closing the economic gap [1][2]. Economic Performance - Henan's GDP reached 31,683.80 billion yuan, growing by 5.7%, while Hubei's GDP was 29,642.61 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2%, indicating Hubei's faster growth compared to Henan [1][2]. - The economic gap between Hubei and Henan has significantly narrowed over the past two years, from 5,066.78 billion yuan in 2023 to 2,041.19 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. Investment and Consumption - Hubei's fixed asset investment grew by 6.5%, surpassing the national average of 3.7%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 12.5% [4]. - Hubei's retail sales reached 13,073.93 billion yuan, growing by 6.9%, which is higher than the national average [4]. Trade Performance - Hubei's total import and export volume exceeded 400 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 402.31 billion yuan, with exports growing by 38.5% [5]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 26.8%, accounting for 50.7% of total exports [5]. Henan's Economic Characteristics - Henan's economy showed "three fasts and two stability" in the first half of the year, with industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales all experiencing significant growth [6][7]. - The industrial production in Henan grew by 8.4%, with nearly 80% of industries maintaining growth [6].

Group 1 - The overall trend in the real estate market is stabilizing, but opinions vary on the timeline for recovery, with some predicting a rebound this year and others suggesting it may take three to five years [1] - Economist Zhu Ning predicts a potential decline in housing prices by 20%-30% by early 2024, despite recent stabilization due to policy support, as the market has entered a downward trend again [3][5] - Long-term factors such as demographic shifts, slowing urbanization, and changing attitudes among young people are driving a deep adjustment in the real estate market, shifting the perception of housing from an investment to a consumer good [3][6] Group 2 - Zhu Ning's previous warnings about the real estate market, particularly regarding the "implicit guarantee" that inflated housing prices, have gained attention as the market dynamics shift [5] - The notion of "housing as a necessity" is challenged, with the argument that effective demand is more relevant than the concept of "just demand," emphasizing the need for housing to meet actual living requirements rather than being viewed as an investment [6][8] - The expectation that buying a home guarantees wealth accumulation has reversed, leading to a new focus on selling homes rather than buying, which is crucial for stabilizing the market [6][8]