【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华泰证券认为，近期市场波动率上升，流动性、情绪和风险偏好是主要原因。在市场波动放大的情 况下部分投资者再度担忧转弱的经济数据与股市之间"背离"问题，我们对此并不悲观。国内资产重估主 线脉络未变，资金寻找核心资产的诉求也未变，但估值向盈利的切换和内外资的重新平衡要求配置思路 需要更加去伪存真。港股本轮调整相对A股更早、跌幅也更深，当前位置已经开始具备性价比。1、短 期资金避险和高低切可能延续，建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的消费者服务、建筑、纺织服装、家 电。2、8月以来的第三轮重估中，部分行业涨幅有限但近期跌幅反而较大，有更大被"错杀"概率，关注 电子、医药、汽车、轻工制造等。3、港股科技近期回调较多，在风险偏好回落下对正面催化敏感度下 降，流动性环境改善后仍有重估机会。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with a consensus emerging that A-shares present structural opportunities and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to show signs of recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Major securities firms predict China's economic growth for 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [3]. - The overall judgment from economists is that the macroeconomic environment will be "stable and improving, with structural optimization" [2][3]. - Export resilience and ongoing industrial upgrades are viewed as key supports for the macroeconomy, with expectations of strong export performance in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The core direction for policy in 2026 will focus on structural optimization and a balanced approach to supply and demand [3]. - There is an expectation of moderate expansion in fiscal policy, which will support the conclusion of the deleveraging cycle [2][3]. - The need to address weak domestic demand remains a critical issue for 2026, with price stability being essential for growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus for A-shares in 2026 is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment, funds, and valuation to being driven by performance verification [5]. - Key areas of interest include technology growth, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - The AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which is anticipated to support the performance of Chinese assets [6]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - Three main structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends particularly in AI, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6][7]. - The potential for Chinese companies to improve their position in the global value chain is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and expanding global presence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows increasing downward pressure, with fixed asset investment declining year-on-year and external demand turning negative, indicating potential negative impacts on the stock market [1][3] - Industrial production growth has dropped below 5%, with high-tech industries experiencing a decline in prosperity, although high-end, intelligent, and green industries, as well as shipbuilding, aerospace, and automotive manufacturing, remain resilient [1][4] Key Economic Indicators - Retail sales of consumer goods are declining due to weakened demand, particularly in home appliances, furniture, and automotive sectors, while communication equipment and cosmetics show growth [1][6] - Investment across various sectors is weakening, with significant declines in real estate new starts and sales area, and housing prices experiencing a larger month-on-month drop [1][8] - Infrastructure investment has decreased more than expected, influenced by debt resolution, insufficient project reserves, and local government debt constraints, although digital infrastructure and energy security projects may provide some support [1][8] Sector-Specific Insights - Investment demand in the chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries has contracted, but the core logic of industrial upgrading remains intact [1][9] - Manufacturing investment shows positive signals, particularly in computer electronics and electrical machinery, with a need to observe the sustainability of this recovery and its impact on overall investment [1][10] Consumer Behavior and Employment - National dining consumption improved in October due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall retail sales continue to decline [1][6] - Despite weak goods consumption, there are positive signs of recovery in service consumption, supported by policy measures [1][6] Challenges and Policy Responses - The economy faces challenges with internal demand slowing and external demand declining, which may impact the fourth quarter's economic performance [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that as economic downturns and employment pressures rise, there will be an increase in counter-cyclical policies, with potential for new policy deployments [1][13] Market Dynamics - The capital market's resilience may diverge from the slowing economic momentum, reflecting long-term economic logic rather than short-term fluctuations [1][14] - Structural changes in the economy, particularly in the technology innovation sector, are expected to drive asset revaluation, suggesting a need for patience regarding short-term fundamental fluctuations [1][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant valuation recovery, driven by a global rebalancing of funds towards non-US markets and asset revaluation led by industry narratives [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has seen a notable decline due to multiple factors, including the strong US dollar impacting emerging market valuations. However, with the weakening dollar and other uncertainties, there is a trend of global funds reallocating towards non-US assets, boosting emerging markets [1]. - As of October 2023, the proportion of overseas active funds allocated to the Chinese market has risen to 7.2%, indicating growing international interest [2]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be around 10.6 times by the end of 2024, with risk premiums at historical highs, suggesting a high safety margin for investors [2]. - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are above historical averages by 1.5 to 1.7 standard deviations, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure, but long-term policy clarity and increased foreign capital inflow are expected to support the market [2]. Group 3: Southbound Capital Influence - Southbound capital's pricing power in the Hong Kong market is strengthening, with daily trading volume from this capital reaching approximately 30% of the main board's total, reflecting its growing influence [3]. - Despite recent volatility in the Hong Kong market, the overall outlook remains optimistic for the medium term [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market include: 1. Continued development of the AI industry and improved competition in the internet sector due to "anti-involution" policies, alongside a gradual recovery in certain consumer segments [4]. 2. Strengthening of China's manufacturing advantages and breakthroughs in key technologies, particularly in high-end manufacturing and hard tech sectors [4]. 3. Improved policy environment in the healthcare sector, enhancing competitiveness and growth potential in biopharmaceuticals [4]. 4. Recovery in profit expectations for the chemical and raw materials sectors, making related companies' performance worth monitoring [4]. 5. Potential rotation of capital from high-dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities towards cyclical and growth assets [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that brokerages are optimistic about the continuation of the A-share bull market into 2026, recommending an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold, while suggesting a balanced approach to market styles focusing on technology growth and large-cap growth opportunities [2][5][10]. - China’s economic indicators show signs of an upward trend, with brokerages adjusting their asset allocations accordingly, increasing exposure to commodities and maintaining a focus on stocks [2][5]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing positive developments, with HBM4 prices rising by 51.35% to approximately $560, and AMD receiving export licenses for its AI chips to China, indicating a favorable environment for the sector [14][15]. Group 2 - The storage industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by the increasing demand for memory capacity due to AI model training, with HBM and DDR5 memory shortages impacting the entire storage supply chain [16][18]. - Major storage manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are adjusting prices in response to the heightened demand for storage driven by AI applications, with AI servers requiring significantly more DRAM and NAND capacity compared to standard servers [18][21]. - The domestic storage industry is expected to see significant growth in production capacity, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies ramping up output to meet the rising demand [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Huazhu City A has become a focal point in the A-share market, experiencing a significant surge in stock price despite a less optimistic Q3 2025 performance report, driven by rumors of potential land redevelopment in Shenzhen's core areas [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huazhu City A's stock closed at 2.66 yuan per share, reaching the daily limit up, with a trading volume of nearly 6.76 billion yuan, marking the first time in a year that the stock closed at the limit up [1] - The stock's performance is attributed to market speculation regarding the relocation of Happy Valley and the redevelopment of the land for Jinxiu Zhonghua [1] Group 2: Land Redevelopment Potential - There are rumors that Shenzhen will advance the disposal of the Jinxiu Zhonghua land, which could revitalize land resources and provide significant value reassessment opportunities for Huazhu City A [1] - The potential relocation of Happy Valley to the Guangming District is seen as a feasible option, which would allow the current site to be repurposed [1] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - As a pioneer in the "cultural tourism + real estate" model, Huazhu City A has faced multiple development challenges in recent years [1] - Industry insiders suggest that while revitalizing existing assets is important, focusing on upgrading cultural tourism offerings and innovating real estate models may be crucial for the company's breakthrough [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by asset replacement logic, capital market reforms, and enhanced economic transformation dynamics [4]. Market Performance - On November 7, A-share indices experienced a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51%. The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1]. - Notable sectors included lithium battery electrolyte and phosphorus chemicals, with stocks like Fujian Development and Dongyue Silicon Material hitting the daily limit [1][2]. Sector Analysis - The robotics sector faced declines, with companies like Lixing Co. and Zhejiang Rongtai experiencing significant drops [3]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key investment area, focusing on self-controlled growth in areas such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI applications [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The capital market is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms, which enhance its investment appeal and resilience against risks [4]. - Analysts predict that the earnings recovery cycle may begin in the first half of 2026, transitioning from an "asset revaluation" phase to a "profit recovery" phase [5]. Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest focusing on four main investment lines: technology growth, PPI improvement, global competitiveness, and domestic consumption recovery [6]. - Emphasis is placed on new energy strategies, particularly in emerging fields like new energy storage, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 6, 2025, the National Chip Index, Sci-Tech 50, and Electronics sectors showed significant gains of 4.08%, 3.34%, and 3.00% respectively [1][5] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase, with DDR5 spot prices soaring by 25%, and quarterly increases expected to reach 30%-50% [3] Group 2: Company Developments - SK Hynix has completed negotiations with NVIDIA for HBM4 supply, with prices confirmed at approximately $560, which is over 50% higher than HBM3E prices [2] - Samsung Electronics anticipates growth in AI and traditional server demand by 2026, with a projected shortage of mobile chips in Q4 [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Citic Securities suggests focusing on the domestic semiconductor supply chain, particularly on companies like Changxin Storage, which is expanding production significantly [3] - Open Source Securities highlights the potential for AI Agent market growth, predicting a rise from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $47.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 44.8% [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with a shift from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" anticipated in 2026 [4] - The semiconductor industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand for materials due to geopolitical tensions and a push for self-sufficiency [4] Group 5: ETF Performance - The semiconductor ETF (159801) has seen a net inflow of 296 million yuan over five days, reflecting strong investor interest [4] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (560780) has experienced a 428% increase in shares year-to-date, leading its category [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Annual Strategy Conference of Kaiyuan Securities will focus on macroeconomic trends, the "14th Five-Year Plan" completion, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" initiation, emphasizing high-quality development and investment strategies in the capital market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The chairman of Kaiyuan Securities, Li Gang, highlighted that the "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to a resilient Chinese economy, with the capital market providing robust financial support for the transformation and upgrading of the real economy [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize high-level technological self-reliance, modern industrial system construction, and the development of new productive forces, expanding the significance of the capital market [3][4]. Group 2: Research and Services - Kaiyuan Securities aims to establish itself as a leading comprehensive financial service provider for small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on market-oriented and legal development while preventing financial risks [4]. - The research department has developed a comprehensive research framework covering over 30 areas, enhancing its ability to support national strategies and the real economy [4][6]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis - The chief macroeconomic analyst, He Ning, anticipates that the actual GDP target for 2026 will remain around 5%, with a more proactive macro policy and a potential expansion of the broad deficit scale [7]. - He emphasized the importance of achieving a new balance between supply and demand, with a focus on enhancing service supply and addressing excess capacity [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The strategy chief analyst, Wei Jixing, indicated that the capital market will transition from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery," predicting a "flat slow bull" market rather than a "sharp peak short bull" in 2026 [10][11]. - The focus on technology as a primary investment theme will continue, with an emphasis on domestic demand and consumption recovery as key drivers for market performance [9][12]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The fixed income chief analyst, Chen Xi, recommended a focus on short-term bonds, suggesting that the central bank's intentions will stabilize the liability side, while maintaining a neutral duration for long-term bonds [12]. - The conference will also feature discussions on various sectors, including AI computing, chips, humanoid robots, and new consumption trends, providing a comprehensive analysis of investment strategies across different fields [13].