Macro Strategy - The core view indicates that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in monetary policy impacting market sentiment and gold's value [1][6] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise then fall" pattern, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data, leading to a 5.27% increase in the Shanghai gold futures by the end of the month [1][6] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macroeconomic policies, with expectations of continued high volatility [1][6] Fixed Income - The report on Qizhong Convertible Bonds anticipates a listing price between 126.64 and 140.59 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0028% [2][7] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 850 million CNY, with proceeds allocated for advanced packaging and testing projects [7][8] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry report highlights a 5.5% decline in total revenue and a 6.7% drop in net profit for the liquor sector in the first three quarters of 2025, with a more pronounced 18.3% revenue decline in Q3 [3][10] - The report notes that the recovery of consumption scenarios is slow, particularly in business and personal dining contexts, leading to sustained pressure on demand for high-end and mid-range liquor [3][10] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies that are likely to see early signs of recovery and have strong growth potential, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also considering companies with solid governance and dividend yields [4][11] Company Recommendations - Tiangong International is highlighted for its potential growth in titanium alloy production, with projected revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.1 billion, and 7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8%, 16%, and 14% respectively [5][11] - The company is positioned well in the consumer electronics sector and is expanding into new materials for robotics and nuclear fusion applications, which are expected to drive future growth [5][11]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main factors influencing convertible bond performance: equity-debt price ratio, dollar liquidity, and large-small cap style [2][11][20] - The current economic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, but limited incremental benefits due to insufficient momentum from households and enterprises [2][12][39] - The dollar is expected to remain in a loose monetary environment, which historically supports equity markets [2][16][19] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are currently in a trading phase that follows the performance of underlying stocks, having experienced three cycles since 2018 [3][27][28] - The median price of convertible bonds as of November 3, 2025, is 132.72 yuan, placing it at the 99.3% historical percentile, indicating a high valuation level [4][34][35] - The median conversion premium is 27%, which is at the 55.3% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation in the current market [4][34][35] Group 3 - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy for convertible bonds, focusing on equity-like convertible bonds priced above 120 yuan, with specific recommendations for various sectors [5][39][41] - Recommended convertible bonds include those from financial consumption, public utilities, AI and robotics, as well as semiconductor and manufacturing sectors [5][39][41] Group 4 - The investor behavior analysis shows that the total outstanding convertible bond scale has decreased from 844.7 billion yuan in January 2025 to 759.5 billion yuan in October 2025, with funds increasing their holdings [29][31] - The report highlights a shift in investor composition, with funds increasing their share from 34.3% to 39.8% during the same period, while insurance institutions have reduced their holdings significantly [29][32]

Core Insights - China Galaxy's executives attended the Q3 2025 earnings conference, highlighting their unique strategies in international business, wealth management, and institutional services [1] - The low-interest environment has become a focal point for investors regarding asset allocation strategies [2] Group 1: International Business - The company maintains a functional-first approach in its investment banking operations, focusing on enhancing service quality aligned with national strategies and key industries outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - China Galaxy's international business network spans regions including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, making it one of the most widely networked Chinese brokers in Asia [3] - Future plans include strengthening overseas subsidiaries' management and enhancing integrated operations to solidify its position in Southeast Asia [3] Group 2: Wealth Management - The wealth management division aims to resonate with national goals, collaborate with partners, and align closely with client needs, continuously upgrading its trading systems to create a diverse and stable service ecosystem [3] Group 3: Institutional Services - The institutional business is focused on becoming a reliable full-service provider, integrating technology deeply into operations, and offering a comprehensive range of services including research, derivatives, asset management, and brokerage [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the current low-interest environment, traditional fixed-income investments face challenges such as low spreads and high volatility, prompting a shift towards quantitative, neutral, and structured investment strategies to enhance returns [3] - The company is also leveraging its own funds and responding to new financial policies to maintain stable investment scales in OCI accounts while exploring opportunities in the convertible bond market [4] Group 5: Strategic Planning - The company is engaged in thorough discussions and rigorous evaluations for its new strategic plan, which is crucial for its development over the next five years and beyond, ensuring that the strategy is clear, feasible, and capable of creating long-term value for shareholders [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on non - public fund - type convertible bond investment institutions, aiming to analyze their convertible bond investment strategies and preferences to understand the pricing mechanism and investment strategies of the convertible bond market [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Annuity - type Products 3.1.1 Annuity and Pension Product Investment Mechanisms - "Enterprise annuity" is a supplementary endowment insurance system established by enterprises and their employees on the basis of participating in the basic endowment insurance. It involves multiple institutions such as trustees, account managers, and investment managers [11]. - The investment scope of enterprise annuity funds includes various financial products, and pension products are standard investment portfolios for enterprise annuity funds. Small - scale investment portfolios should prioritize investing in pension products [16]. - By the end of 2024, the total number of enterprises with enterprise annuity reached 159,300, with 32.42 million insured employees and a cumulative fund of 3.6422 trillion yuan. The total convertible bond - holding scale of enterprise annuity was about 130 billion yuan, accounting for less than 5% of the direct investment scale [19][21]. - By the end of 2024, there were 649 registered pension products, with 578 in actual operation and a total net asset value of 2.434307 trillion yuan, accounting for about 70% of the enterprise annuity plan's end - of - period asset amount [25]. 3.1.2 Pension Product Convertible Bond Investment Analysis - Pension products are the second most frequently disclosed "top ten holders" of convertible bonds, but the average holding scale is not high. The holding scale reached a peak of 22.657 billion yuan at the end of 2023 and then declined [30]. - In terms of industry distribution, pension products mainly hold convertible bonds in industries such as power equipment, chemicals, medicine, and banks. Since 2022, they have stably over - allocated convertible bonds in industries such as coal, public utilities, transportation, and commercial retail [31]. - In terms of rating distribution, pension products under - allocated AAA convertible bonds from 2017 to 2022, over - allocated them from mid - 2023 to mid - 2024, and then under - allocated them again at the end of 2024. They have stably over - allocated AA convertible bonds and under - allocated A+ and below convertible bonds [33]. - In terms of price distribution, pension product holdings are mainly concentrated in the 100 - 120 yuan range, with a stable under - allocation of high - price convertible bonds above 130 yuan and a cautious attitude towards those in the 120 - 130 yuan range. Since mid - 2024, they have significantly under - allocated convertible bonds below 100 yuan [34]. 3.1.3 Differences among Different Pension Managers - Among fund companies, the convertible bond - holding scale of pension products managed by E Fund exceeded that of ICBC Credit Suisse Fund again in mid - 2023, reaching about 5.849 billion yuan at the end of 2024. The convertible bond - holding scale of pension products managed by ICBC Credit Suisse Fund has been stable above 4 billion yuan since the end of 2023 [37]. - Among insurance companies, the convertible bond - holding scale of pension products managed by Huatai Asset nearly doubled to 1.065 billion yuan at the end of 2024, while that of People's Pension Insurance decreased significantly from 1.51 billion yuan in mid - 2024 to 178 million yuan at the end of 2024. The convertible bond - holding scales of China Life Pension and Ping An Pension also increased significantly at the end of 2024 [37]. - Taking E Fund as an example, its pension products prefer convertible bonds in the power equipment industry. Since the end of 2020, they have continuously over - allocated convertible bonds in upstream resources, cyclical industries, and some consumer and financial industries, and under - allocated convertible bonds in machinery, TMT, and other industries. In terms of rating, they have continuously over - allocated AA convertible bonds, over - allocated AA - convertible bonds since mid - 2023, and under - allocated AAA convertible bonds since mid - 2024 [39]. 3.2 Social Security Fund (Council) - As of the end of 2024, the total assets under the trusteeship of the Social Security Fund Council were 2.84 trillion yuan for pension funds and 3.32 trillion yuan for social security funds, with a total direct investment scale of about 1.53 trillion yuan and a entrusted investment scale of about 4.12 trillion yuan. The total convertible bond - holding scale of the social security fund was about 1.6 billion yuan, accounting for about 1% of the direct investment scale [2]. - The social security fund significantly over - allocated bank convertible bonds at the end of 2023 and mid - 2024 (about 5pct) and stably under - allocated them at other times. It also significantly and stably over - allocated AA+ and AA convertible bonds [2]. 3.3 Insurance Companies and Insurance Asset Management 3.3.1 Investment Mechanisms of Insurance Companies and Insurance Asset Management - Insurance companies have both self - investment and entrusted investment by investment managers such as insurance asset management companies. Self - managed funds account for about 30% of the insurance company's fund utilization balance. Insurance asset management companies also accept entrusted investment funds from third - party customers such as enterprise annuities, social security funds, and bank wealth management, accounting for about 20% of their management scale [3]. - In 2023, the total investment asset scale of insurance asset management companies was 26.16 trillion yuan, mainly in bonds, insurance asset management products, and bank deposits. At the end of 2023, insurance - type institutions directly held convertible bonds worth about 5.5 billion yuan, accounting for less than 0.2% of the insurance company's fund utilization balance of 28 trillion yuan [3]. 3.3.2 Insurance Self - investment Convertible Bond Investment Analysis - Insurance companies continuously and stably under - allocate convertible bonds in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries (under - allocation of about 5pct), overall stably over - allocate bank convertible bonds, with an over - allocation ratio of about 20pct at the end of 2023, and significantly over - allocate AAA convertible bonds at the same time. They also significantly under - allocate convertible bonds above 120 yuan [3]. 3.3.3 Insurance Asset Management Convertible Bond Investment Analysis - Since June 2022, insurance asset management products have stably over - allocated petrochemical convertible bonds. In mid - 2024 and at the end of 2024, they significantly over - allocated power equipment convertible bonds, stably over - allocated AA+ convertible bonds (with an over - allocation ratio of up to 50pct since the end of June 2024), stably under - allocated AA - and below convertible bonds, and stably under - allocated AAA convertible bonds since the end of 2021 [3]. 3.4 Securities Self - investment - Since the end of 2021, securities self - investment has stably over - allocated bank convertible bonds. Since June 2022 (except mid - 2024), it has overall stably and significantly over - allocated AAA convertible bonds and clearly prefers convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 yuan range [4]. 3.5 Private Asset Management 3.5.1 Asset Management Plan Convertible Bond Investment Analysis - Since the end of 2022, asset management plans have stably over - allocated power equipment convertible bonds and under - allocated AA - and below convertible bonds [4]. 3.5.2 Private Fund Convertible Bond Investment Analysis - Since the end of 2022, private funds have significantly over - allocated electronic convertible bonds, with higher investment scales from institutions such as Ruijun Asset [4]. 3.6 QFII - Many institutions have obtained QFII qualifications, but their investment scale in the convertible bond market is not high. Institutions such as Northwest Asset Management and UBS AG often appear on the "top ten holders" list, and the convertible bond investment of Northwest Asset Management is highly analyzable [4].

Group 1 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight increase of 0.6% in September, following a 2% rise in the stock market, with high valuations suppressing performance and significant outflows from ETFs [3][5][10] - The semiconductor, optical communication, humanoid robots, and lithium battery sectors showed rapid rotation, indicating a highly structural market [3][5][10] - The convertible bond ETF scale decreased by 6.2% to 70 billion, reflecting a net outflow trend throughout the month [3][8][10] Group 2 - The outlook for the convertible bond market suggests that high-priced varieties still have potential elasticity, although there are risks of correction [3][40] - The strategy for October emphasizes a balanced approach, focusing on mid-cap and large-cap growth stocks, with a preference for convertible bonds that are mid to high-priced [3][40][43] - Recommended convertible bond combinations for October include Hengyi Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, and others [3][40] Group 3 - In September, the electronic and automotive sectors led the gains in convertible bonds, with increases of 6.5% and 6.4% respectively, while non-bank financials and banks saw declines [3][22][24] - The performance of high-priced convertible bonds was strong, with a year-to-date increase of 24.3%, while mid and low-priced bonds saw lower gains [3][31][32] - The convertible bond market showed a divergence in performance, with mid to low-rated bonds rising nearly 2%, while high-rated bonds fell by 2% [3][37]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for convertible bonds has surged due to declining bond yields, attracting low-risk investors seeking higher returns. The key to leveraging convertible bonds lies in managing drawdowns while striving for enhanced returns [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes that sustainable performance should not overly rely on future predictions, as the world is highly uncertain. A portfolio with a favorable risk-reward ratio is essential [1][10]. - The focus is on maintaining a balance between risk and return, ensuring that even if predictions are incorrect, the portfolio does not suffer significant losses [10][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy involves prioritizing odds in timing and selection of convertible bonds. When convertible bonds are significantly undervalued, the allocation shifts towards them, and vice versa when they are overvalued [2][14]. - The selection process for convertible bonds is based on a risk-reward analysis of the underlying stocks, considering factors like bond price, premium rate, and the characteristics of the corresponding stocks [2][20]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The performance of the managed fund, Zhongyin Industrial Bond A, achieved a return of 9.31% over the past year, outperforming its benchmark by 6.95% [1]. - The fund manager has successfully navigated various market conditions by switching between stocks and convertible bonds, maintaining a strong performance record [3][13]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Timing - High-odds opportunities typically arise during market downturns or periods of panic, which aligns with the manager's left-side investment approach [2][24]. - The manager's strategy includes buying convertible bonds during market lows, capitalizing on their undervaluation and potential for recovery [22][24]. Group 5: Risk Management - The investment approach aims to find asymmetrical risk-reward opportunities, ensuring that the downside risk is minimized while allowing for potential upside [12][33]. - The focus on maintaining a stable risk-return profile helps in achieving consistent performance, even in volatile market conditions [11][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing convertible bonds (CBs) as a strategic investment tool, focusing on risk-reward analysis based on the characteristics of the underlying stocks. The investment philosophy is centered around maintaining a balanced risk-return profile while capitalizing on market inefficiencies and price discrepancies in CBs [2][3][20]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach prioritizes a risk-reward ratio that does not overly depend on future predictions, acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in the market [2][11]. - The strategy involves adjusting the allocation between stocks and CBs based on their relative valuations, aiming to enhance the overall risk-return profile of the portfolio [3][19]. - The philosophy of "not losing is winning" is highlighted, indicating a focus on preserving capital while seeking opportunities for growth [5][12]. Group 2: Timing and Selection - Timing decisions are made based on the relative valuation of CBs compared to stocks, with a preference for increasing CB exposure when they are undervalued [17][18]. - The selection of individual CBs is based on a detailed analysis of four factors: CB price, premium rate, and the characteristics of the underlying stock and industry [20][21]. - The article notes that high-potential opportunities typically arise during market downturns, allowing for strategic left-side investments [3][24]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The performance of the managed fund, 中银产业债A, has shown a significant outperformance with a 9.31% return over the past year compared to a benchmark of 2.36%, indicating effective management and strategy execution [2]. - The article provides specific performance data for various funds managed, showcasing consistent rankings in the top quartile among peers, particularly during different market conditions [14][48]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Adjustments - The investment strategy adapts to changing market conditions, with a focus on maintaining a balanced exposure to both stocks and CBs based on their respective valuations [30][31]. - The article discusses the importance of liquidity management and the avoidance of excessive exposure to liquidity risks, especially during market downturns [42]. Group 5: Long-term Perspective - The long-term investment philosophy is rooted in the understanding that the valuation at the time of purchase significantly impacts future returns, advocating for a focus on undervalued assets [45][43]. - The article concludes with a reminder of the unpredictable nature of markets, emphasizing the need for a disciplined approach to investment management that prioritizes risk control and capital preservation [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The Hedda Convertible Bond (127088.SZ) is a high - quality balanced bond with the issuer's performance and valuation at a low level. The company has excellent fundamentals, and its performance and valuation are at historical lows. The bond has a long remaining term [1][4] - Based on the Shanxi Securities convertible bond valuation model, if the stock price remains unchanged, without considering forced redemption and downward revision, the reasonable valuation of the Hedda Convertible Bond is between 124 and 132 yuan [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information about the Convertible Bond - The Hedda Convertible Bond has a rating of AA - a bond balance of 600 million yuan, accounting for 99.97% of the total issuance. The remaining term is 3.82 years. The latest closing price is 122.79 yuan, the conversion premium rate is 50.15%, and the pure bond premium rate is 14.83% [1] Information about the Underlying Stock - The underlying stock is Shandong Hedda (002810.SZ), established in 1992. Its main products are cellulose ether and plant capsules, and its business covers more than 100 countries and regions. The latest total market value is 4.797 billion yuan, and the 2025E PE is 26.3x. The actual controller is an individual, and the largest shareholder and persons acting in concert hold a total of 39.87% of the shares. The attributable net profit in H125 decreased by 8.71% year - on - year [2] Main Highlights of the Hedda Convertible Bond - The company has been deeply involved in the cellulose ether industry for nearly 30 years. Cellulose ether has many advantages. The company's products cover more than 70 categories and more than 100 models, with rich structure and leading technology. By the end of H125, its wholly - owned subsidiary Zhongfu Hedda had a production capacity of 10,000 MT and was one of the largest HEC manufacturers in China [3] - The company has extended its industrial chain to the downstream plant capsule industry. Compared with gelatin capsules, plant capsules have many advantages and are mainly used in the steadily growing health product industry. By the end of H125, the company's effective production capacity was 30 billion capsules, with a capacity utilization rate of about 60%. The US factory with a planned capacity of 20 billion capsules is under construction and is expected to be put into production in the middle of next year [4] - The company has a high proportion of overseas revenue. In 2024, the export proportions of building - grade, pharmaceutical and food - grade cellulose ether, and plant capsules were 56.4%, 57.3%, and 88.2% respectively. In 2025, the US imposed anti - dumping duties on some of the company's products, affecting orders and increasing raw material costs. Currently, the company is actively responding, and the unreasonable factors may ease in Q4, when the performance is expected to turn around [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the convertible bond market, particularly focusing on the performance and valuation of convertible bonds in relation to the stock market fluctuations [1][2][6][23]. - Key companies mentioned include: - **文泰公司 (Wentai)**: A leading power semiconductor company with a significant automotive business [8]. - **正帆公司 (Zhengfan)**: Engaged in gas chemical systems and cleanroom systems [9]. - **新锐公司 (Xinxin)**: Focused on precision components for the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [17]. - **友发钢铁公司 (Youfa Steel)**: Expected to see strong performance due to industry recovery [19]. - **禾邦生物 (Hebang Bio)**: Anticipated to benefit from price increases in glyphosate and the photovoltaic glass industry [20]. - **科顺防水材料 (Keshun Waterproof Materials)**: Planning to expand overseas and improve profit margins [21]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The valuation of convertible bonds has compressed, with a noted decline of approximately 4 to 5 yuan, indicating potential for rebound if the stock market stabilizes or rises [2][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Convertible bonds in the 90-100 parity range are currently priced around 125 yuan, suggesting they may offer good value compared to earlier periods [5]. - Large-cap assets with a remaining maturity of less than three years and a balance exceeding 5 billion yuan show significant valuation compression, presenting investment opportunities [5][6]. - **Market Trends**: The manufacturing sector, particularly in upstream industries like steel and photovoltaics, is showing signs of improvement, which could positively impact convertible bond pricing if stock market conditions remain favorable [6][10]. Additional Important Content - **Selection Criteria for Convertible Bonds**: Investors are advised to focus on low-valuation factors, low crowding, and equity-oriented assets without strong redemption pressure, particularly in optimistic sectors like steel and photovoltaics [7][11]. - **Company-Specific Developments**: - **文泰公司**: Anticipated operational improvements due to rising demand in the automotive sector and European automotive inventory replenishment [8]. - **正帆公司**: Expected to perform well due to its involvement in equipment investment and gas product demand [9]. - **新锐公司**: Projected to see performance improvements in the second half of the year, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [18]. - **Market Environment for Convertible Bonds**: The current market is seen as a favorable time for investing in convertible bonds, especially after recent fund withdrawals, indicating a potential for re-entry into the market [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the convertible bond market, specific company insights, and broader industry trends.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Convertible bond investors face the challenge of achieving both absolute and relative returns. With the current equity market in an accelerated upward phase, it's time to consider adjusting positions to handle the potential post - peak volatility, and the discussion is carried out from two dimensions: position adjustment and structure switching [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs How to Adjust Positions - Right - side position reduction is more reasonable as it's difficult to predict the end of the capital inflow. Left - side position reduction may lead to missed buying opportunities and increased trading costs if the equity market continues to rise [3] - The decision should be based on key time nodes and account profit - loss conditions. Historical data shows that the market's performance after key time nodes is uncertain. If the floating profit is limited, early position reduction can be considered [4] How to Switch Structures Anti - Drop Convertible Bonds - Historically, convertible bonds priced between 110 - 115 yuan are the most anti - drop, but there are no institution - allocable bonds below 110 yuan currently, and these bonds may be affected by the bond market pressure [9][10] Bonds with Strong Investor Reluctance to Sell - Bonds with strong conversion demands from the company, especially those with a history of full - scale downward revisions, short remaining terms, and high asset - liability ratios, may see issuers take measures to promote conversion [11] - Bonds related to sectors with strong positive - stock logic, such as overseas computing power and sectors with improving profitability, as well as positive - stock high - volatility under - valued sectors, may be favored by investors [13] - Convertible bonds that have risen smoothly this year and offer a good holding experience, as indicated by a high Sharpe ratio, may also be subject to investor reluctance to sell [15] Other Options - Diversify in major asset classes, such as rapidly increasing the position of pure bonds and appropriately increasing the portfolio duration to reduce the overall portfolio net - value volatility [16]