证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月17日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251217 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.布局围绕AI基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备2026年投资策略 ➢ 2.内需仍有压力，关注积极定调后增量政策的出台——国内观察：2025年11月经济数据 ➢ 3.企业短期贷款与债券融资较好，存款季节性回表——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二十一） ➢ 1.商务部：对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税 ➢ 2.海南自贸港将于12月18日全岛封关运作 ➢ 3.美国11月季调后非农就业人口增6.4万人，预期增5万人 | 1.1. 布局围绕 | 基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备 | 年投资策略 | AI | 2026 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment suggestions for the aluminum industry, recommending light - position short - term long trades on dips for alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum, while emphasizing the need to control trading rhythm and risk [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,920 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,537 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,875 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts for Shanghai aluminum was - 65 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; for alumina, it was - 15 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 20,430 hands to 294,373 hands; for alumina, it decreased by 35,592 hands to 205,975 hands. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 900 tons to 519,650 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3,635 tons to 119,995 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,710 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 580 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 32.55 dollars/ton, down 5.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production in November was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina (for electrolytic aluminum) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.51%, down 0.45%; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. China's imports of aluminum scrap increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons, and exports decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the export volume decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The output of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52. The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 13.76%, up 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.43%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV was 13.69%, up 0.0257; the call - put ratio was 1.72, up 0.0321 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's November financial data showed that RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, M1 by 4.9%, the stock of social financing by 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans by 6.4% [2]. - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation was no longer the biggest enemy, and the risk of employment decline was more worrying. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against a rate cut on Wednesday, waiting for more data, and expected more rate cuts next year than the median forecast [2]. - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized strengthening economic monitoring and early - warning analysis, promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize, and boosting consumption with practical and new measures [2]. - At the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, Han Wenxiu said that China's main economic indicators were better than expected, and the economic aggregate was expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. In 2026, efforts would be made to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract was oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of bauxite was expected to gradually increase, and the price of domestic bauxite might decline slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity and operating rate might decline slightly, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants remained stable. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The profit of aluminum plants was good, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to grow slightly. Although it was the traditional off - season, the demand for downstream aluminum products remained resilient. The option market sentiment was bullish, and it was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract first fell and then rose, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production of cast aluminum might decline. The demand from downstream enterprises was cautious. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2].

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 财政发力仍待观察，实体需求仍弱 ——11 月金融数据点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 相关研究 债 券 研 究 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 2025 年 11 月新增人民币贷款 0.39 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 0.58 万亿元），新增社 融 2.49 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 2.33 万亿元），社融同比增速为 8.5%（2025 年 10 月为 8.5%），M2 同比 8%（2025 年 10 月为 8.2%）。 ⚫ 第一，社融同比增速持平上 ...

宏观经济研究 2025.12.14 图说中国宏观周报 企业与居民融资分化，M1 增速继续下 行——11 月金融数据点评 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070001 SFC CE Ref：BSI036 peng3.zhou@cicc.com.cn 周彭 分析员 张文朗 分析员 周奕江 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BFE988 wenlang.zhang@cicc.com.cn 特别关注 11 月金融总量数据整体仍处在下行轨道当中，政府、居民部门净融资额同比均减少，企业部门净融资 同比多增，是支撑社融的主力，企业融资的改善以短贷和表内外票据融资等短期需求为主，企业债券 融资的主力是央国企。本月边际变化最大的数据是 M1 ，其同比增速下行除了基数走高的影响以外，环 比走势趋弱也是重要原因，我们预计年内 M1 同比增速可能继续回落。 11 月金融总量数据整体仍处在下行轨道当中。11 月社融存量同比增速 8.5%，较 10 月持平，我们预 计年内仍会小幅回落。考虑到明年一季度面临较高的基数，以及财政力度可能相对温和，我们预计社 融增速的下行仍将持续。另外，11 月M ...

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate remained at 8.5%, unchanged from October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector in November was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The M1 growth rate has shown significant weakness, with a November year-on-year decline attributed to both high base effects and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - The month-on-month M1 growth rate for November was 0.8%, the second lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate market showed slight recovery with the real estate sentiment index rising to 95.1 from 94.9, although new home sales compared to 2019 saw a widening decline of 57.3%[4] - The net financing for real estate companies turned positive at 3.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in credit conditions for the sector[5]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 13 日 如何解读 11 月金融数据？ ——2025 年 11 月金融数据点评 投资要点： 事件：12 月 12 日傍晚央行披露了 11 月金融数据：新增贷款 3900 亿元，社融增量 2.49 万亿元。11 月末，M2 达 337.0 万亿，YoY+8.0%；M1 YoY +4.9%；社融增速 8.5%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 信贷需求持续偏弱，11 月新增贷款同比少增。由于信贷需求偏弱，季初月新增贷款 往往较低，季末月银行偏好冲信贷规模以做大季末时点贷款规模。11 月新增贷款仅 3900 亿，同比大幅少增。11 月个贷-2063 亿，对公+6100 亿，非银同业贷款-147 亿。11 月个贷短期-2158 亿，个贷中长期+100 亿，均同比大幅少增，反映居民主 动去杠杆，消费及按揭信贷需求皆弱。11 月对公短贷+1000 亿，对公中长期+1700 亿，票据融资+3342 亿，对公信贷需 ...

宏观动态报告 存款流向改变 ——2025 年 11 月金融数据解读 2025 年 12 月 12 日 2025 年 12 月 12 日，央行发布 2025 年 11 月金融数据。11 月 M1 同比 4.9% （前值 6.2%），M2 同比 8.0%（前值 8.2%）。新增社融 2.49 万亿元，同比 多增 1597 亿元，社融增速 8.5%（前值 8.5%）。金融机构新增人民币贷款 3900 亿元，同比少增 1900 亿元，贷款增速 6.4%（前值 6.5%）。 本月金融数据并未显示居民存款明显流向股市的信号，这可能与 11 月权益市 场总体处于震荡格局有关。我们观测居民存款搬家进入股市的三个指标在 11 月 的 表 现 为：1、居 民 存 款 增 速本 月继 续下 降， 我 们 估 算 本 月 居 民 存 款 增 速 9.56%（前值 9.69%）；2、居民存款增速与 M2 增速差值为 1.56 个百分点 （前值 1.49 个百分点），差值上升；3、非银新增存款滚动 12 个月求和数在 11 月下行。三个指标中，除居民存款增速下行符合居民存款流向股市的特征 外，其他两个均不符合。同时我们观察到本月 M2 ...

【重磅新闻】 12月10日，国家统计局将公布11月CPI、PPI数据。 华创证券预计11月CPI同比增速有望从上月0.2%回升至0.7%左右。CPI同比增速大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去年11月食品项 环比为-2.7%，是过去十年最低;今年11月环比预计为1.1%。食品价格的波动主要源于天气影响下的菜价，今年10月中下旬以后气 温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。 11月金融数据或将公布 除CPI、PPI外，11月新增贷款、M2、社融等金融数据也或将在下周公布。 浙商证券预计11月人民币贷款新增3000亿元，同比少增2800亿元，对应增速回落0.1个百分点为6.4%；预计11月社融新增2.2万亿 元，同比少增约342 亿元，对应增速回落0.1 个百分点为8.4%;预计11 月M2 增速为8.0%，回落0.2个百分点;预计11 月M1 增速为 5.3%，回落0.9 个百分点。 美联储将举行议息会议 成品油将迎调价窗口 根据日程安排，美联储将于下周举行议息会议。据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间12月5日7:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概 率为87%，维持 ...

华创证券预计11月CPI同比增速有望从上月0.2%回升至0.7%左右。CPI 同比增速大幅回升，主因是食品 价格扰动。去年11月食品项环比为-2.7%，是过去十年最低;今年11月环比预计为1.1%。食品价格的波动 主要源于天气影响下的菜价，今年10月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或 暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。 "这一情况并不具备持续性，据国家气候中心预测，今年冬季我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高， 天气条件总体上有利于蔬菜生长和运输。"华创证券认为，今年10—11月份食品环比强于季节性，叠加 今年二三季度核心CPI 环比偏强，会系统性地抬升明年CPI 翘尾因素，进而有利于同比中枢的回升。预 计明年CPI 翘尾因素约为0%，高于今年的-0.4%。 下周，成品油将迎调价窗口;11月CPI、PPI数据将公布;新增贷款、M2、社会融资规模(下称"社融")等金 融数据或将公布;美联储将举行议息会议，业内预计大概率将降息25个基点。此外，下周还将有5只新股 发行，较以往有所增加。 成品油将迎调价窗口 根据"十个工作日"原则，本轮调价窗口为12月8日24时。据金联创测算，截至12月5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market began a downward trend starting November 14, triggered by the release of disappointing financial data for October on November 13, which did not meet expectations [1][3]. Financial Data Analysis - On July 14, the central bank released June financial data that significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a bullish market trend [3]. - The October financial data released on November 13 was below expectations, resulting in a noticeable decline in the stock market starting November 14 [3][4]. - The primary reason for the explosive data in July was the unexpected increase in money supply driven by bond purchases, while the October data reflected a downturn in bond issuance, impacting money supply growth [5][12]. Monetary Mechanism Explanation - The central bank is the issuer of currency, and the total money supply (M2) is determined by the base currency and the reserve requirement ratio [5][7]. - Commercial banks can create money through asset expansion, which includes buying bonds, but they must first attract deposits [6][9]. - The difference between commercial banks and the central bank in money creation lies in the need for deposits and the type of money created (derived vs. base money) [9][10]. Market Outlook - The recent data indicated a turning point for both M1 and M2, primarily due to a decline in bond issuance [13]. - Despite the downward pressure, the market is expected to stabilize rather than enter a prolonged decline, as the bond market can be adjusted by issuers in response to economic conditions [13]. - The long-term outlook remains optimistic, with confidence in the market's potential for recovery driven by bond issuance mechanisms [13][14]. Sector Focus - Future national development priorities include technology, new productive forces, and industrial upgrades, which may lead to high valuations in tech sectors [15]. - Traditional sectors, while not the focus of future growth, have lower valuations and may present safer investment opportunities [15][16].