Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. For example, it is bullish on the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures; it believes that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue and suggests considering going long on gold futures [8][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.26%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is still to be strengthened. The central bank carried out 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan. The current treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is still uncertainty [5]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.51%, 0.51%, 0.24%, and 0.10% respectively [7]. - **Analysis**: From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year. As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of public funds managed by institutions reached 33.12 trillion yuan. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - term due to low valuations and economic resilience [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish on the long - term performance and consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 771.6, down 0.73%, and the night - session closed at 770.7; the main contract of silver closed at 8,217, down 0.76%, and the night - session closed at 8249 [11]. - **Analysis**: In April, US durable goods orders had a significant decline. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [11]. - **Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to fall. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2900 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 2960 - 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 - 3220 yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining with over - capacity. The peak demand season is ending, and the price support may weaken. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The current steel price valuation is low, but the futures have broken through the support level [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The daily output of molten iron remains high, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore decreased in the first quarter, imports increased significantly after April. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high among black - series products [16]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low. They can participate with a light position [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is still abundant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. Although the steel mills' molten iron output is high, some mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises has improved, but the spot price has started to decline again [18]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon fell 1.23% to 5616 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon fell 1.73% to 5452 yuan/ton. The spot prices also declined [21]. - **Analysis**: The shipment of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The production of rebar increased slightly, but the demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The high inventory of ferroalloys exerts pressure on the market [21]. - **Strategy**: For ferromanganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low - level intervals; for ferrosilicon, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly, being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis**: The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased for the fourth consecutive week. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [24]. - **Strategy**: The OPEC+ meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is suitable for short - term operations. Consider temporarily observing the main contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward, breaking through the moving - average group. The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil market eased, while the high - sulfur fuel - oil market continued to rise. The crack spread in the Asian fuel - oil market decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The tariff friction is gradually being resolved, and global trade demand is recovering, which is positive for fuel - oil prices. However, the inventory in the ARA region has increased, which is negative for prices [28]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of fuel oil [29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.60%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. The processing loss of synthetic rubber has increased, the production capacity utilization rate is high, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [30]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.87%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber rose 2.60%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at 14,350 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [32]. - **Analysis**: The market is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand from tire enterprises may decline slightly. The social inventory is relatively high [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 1.58%, and the spot price decreased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton. The basis remained stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is increasing, the export demand is good, but the domestic demand is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi decreased to 1850 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, exports will be an incremental demand in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will start later. The domestic daily production is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: If the price continues to fall, investors can consider going long. Pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 rose by 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [41]. - **Analysis**: The restart of maintenance devices and the delay of planned maintenance have increased the PX load to 78%. The import volume in April decreased. The international crude oil price is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting [41]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure weakens slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the change in crude oil prices and macro - policies, and control risks [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.17%. The spot price in East China was 4913 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.85% [42]. - **Analysis**: The restart of some devices has increased the PTA load to 77.1%. Some polyester devices have been overhauled, and the terminal orders have decreased. The cost support is insufficient [42]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak. It is advisable to operate within a range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.5% [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart and maintenance of ethylene - glycol devices are concurrent, and the overall operating load is 58.25%. The port inventory has decreased, and the planned arrival volume is also decreasing. The downstream polyester operating rate has decreased, but the demand has improved slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2506 fell by 0.31% [44]. - **Analysis**: The operating load of short - fiber devices has increased to 96.2%. The downstream terminal demand has improved slightly, but the cost support is insufficient. The processing fee is being compressed, and there may be production cuts in the future [44]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate following the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2506 rose by 0.1% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply of polyester bottle - chip devices has increased to 84.3%, and the growth space may be limited. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover. The raw - material price is fluctuating, and the cost support has weakened [45][46]. - **Strategy**: In the future, it is expected to follow the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to raw - material price changes [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1231 yuan/ton, down 2.30% [47]. - **Analysis**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the industry's operating load has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the new orders are poor, and some manufacturers have lowered their prices [47]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to reverse, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate steadily [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1031 yuan/ton, up 1.18% [48]. - **Analysis**: Some production lines have resumed production, but the overall number of production lines has not changed much. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driving force, and the market price in North China has been low [48][49]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [50]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 1.17% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some devices are under maintenance, and the production has increased slightly. The inventory is at a neutral level. The demand for caustic soda is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is still relatively loose. There are regional differences [51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2507 closed at 5274 yuan/ton, down 2.77% [52]. - **Analysis**: A foreign pulp factory is preparing for annual maintenance. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated. The consumption is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52][53]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the international supply is abundant. The price may rebound in the short - term due to tariff progress. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of international pulp mills and domestic consumption - stimulation policies [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.86% to 60,920 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade has made positive progress, but the mine price has decreased, and the production rate has increased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening during the traditional off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [54]. - **Strategy**: Before the large - scale clearance of mine production capacity, the price is difficult to reverse [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward, closing above the moving average. The spot price decreased, and the premium also decreased [55]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US tariffs are affecting the real economy, and the US refined - copper inventory is increasing. There is still uncertainty about copper tariffs, and the price may fall after rising [56]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of Shanghai copper [57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell by 0.4% to 264,290 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: A tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and the复产 expectation in Myanmar is increasing. The domestic processing fee is low, and the raw - material inventory of smelters is shrinking. The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing. There is a game between the current shortage and the expected supply increase [58]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate downward [58]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.18% to 122,300 yuan/ton [59]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations have made new progress, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering losses. The demand

1、现货市场：张家港益江一级豆油 8200 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或震荡整理。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 豆粕价格走高提振市场成交，下游饲料需求被低估，油厂压车问题仍存，豆粕提货良好。 油厂大豆库存回升至高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏强。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2195 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收购均价 2414 元/吨；锦州港（15%水/容重 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang Grade 1 soybean oil is 8,260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybeans are likely to achieve a bumper harvest, and the USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, up from 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end, and the inventory may rebound from a low level after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions: Zhangjiagang 2,860 yuan/ton (+30), Tianjin 2,950 yuan/ton (+20), Rizhao 2,880 yuan/ton (+20), Dongguan 2,900 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Although a phase - one agreement has been reached in China - US trade, long - term contradictions still exist; US soybeans have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas [2] - The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement strategy [2] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be oscillating strongly [2] Group 3: Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton, and in North China and the Huang - Huai region are 2,414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [3] - The Sino - US joint statement has led to expectations of looser corn imports in the medium and long term, and the May USDA report has increased the US production and ending stocks, which is bearish for US corn futures prices [3] - In China, the supply pressure has been relieved, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] - The short - term futures price will oscillate weakly, and mid - term investors should focus on band - trading long opportunities [3] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,630 yuan, up 230 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - The gradual easing of global tariffs and domestic policy support are beneficial to the market, but raw material issues and inventory declines have complicated the market [4] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Cost support has weakened, supply is high, demand has improved but not enough to drive prices up, and inventory has increased. The spot and futures prices have declined, and attention should be paid to the 60,000 yuan/ton support level [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can go short on rallies [7] Group 6: Steel Rebar - The price of Shanghai steel rebar is 3,190 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.69%, the social inventory is 416.46 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 187.76 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel have improved, the contango structure has weakened, and the current valuation is moderately low. Policy support has increased the apparent demand, and the cost is dynamically adjusted. The inventory is at a low level [8] - The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, and the fundamentals are also improving. The market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Investors should focus on the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data and conduct range trading [8] - The negative feedback in the black market has been gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,155 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,290 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 301.56 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 223.10 million tons [9] - The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at low levels [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [10] - The global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased but procurement is still cautious, and overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has restricted the upward space of iron ore prices [10] - The short - term trend of the iron ore 2509 contract will be range - bound, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The resurgence of twists and turns in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of supply increase, but the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has led to the overall oscillation of crude oil prices. In the medium and long term, the price center will move down [11] - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply [11] - The WTI main contract will oscillate between 55 - 65 US dollars per barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - With the improvement of the Sino - US trade situation, the fundamentals have improved slightly, but the rebound height is restricted. The supply is loose, and the market is affected by macro - factors [12][13] - The overall supply of rubber exceeds demand, and the market will oscillate [13] Group 11: PVC - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,830 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [14] - The PVC production enterprise operating rate has decreased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price has rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the upward space is limited [14] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate at low levels [15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.19 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [16] - The weekly operating rate of soda ash has decreased, the production has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [16] - The 09 contract oscillated narrowly yesterday, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and mid - term investors should watch for band - buying opportunities [1][2] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, with the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [3] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can short at high prices [5][6] - For black commodities, negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [7] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to ample supply [8] - Iron ore 2509 may oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - WTI crude oil may oscillate between $55 and $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber may oscillate, with an overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [13][14] - Soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **International Soybeans**: In the current time frame, it is the season for US soybean sowing and growth and South American soybean harvesting and export. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the new South American soybean crop is likely to be a bumper harvest. The USDA May 2025 report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared to 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - **Domestic Industry**: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of imported South American soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] 3.2 Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 2830 yuan/ton (- 20), 2930 yuan/ton (- 10), and 2890 yuan/ton (+ 20) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, China and the US have reached a phased trade agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Internationally, US soybean prices have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the producing areas. Domestically, soybean supply is gradually recovering, oil mill operating rates are increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. As downstream enterprises build safety stocks, they will switch to a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment model. Oil mill soybean inventories have risen to a high level, and the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation is slow in the short term [1] 3.3 Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2195 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huanghuai region, it is 2414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/content 680 - 720) and Bayuquan (content 680 - 730/15% moisture) are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Analysis**: Externally, the China - US joint statement on tariff reduction has led to expectations of looser long - term corn imports, which affects short - term prices emotionally but has limited negative impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has raised US corn production and ending stocks, which is negative for US corn futures. Domestically, as the weather warms and the planting season approaches, the remaining grain in the producing areas has basically been sold. The north - south ports have started the de - stocking process, reducing short - term supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises, low breeding profits leading to on - demand procurement by breeding enterprises, and low operating rates of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses. Under the influence of the easing of China - US relations and the news of policy grain release, futures prices have declined periodically [1][2] 3.4 Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78630 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the gradual easing of tariff confrontations is conducive to a positive outlook for the commodity market, in line with the international background and the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle in 2025. Domestically, continuous policy support from the central bank, the CSRC, and the finance department has boosted market sentiment. However, raw material shocks are intensifying, and the mining problem has not been completely resolved. With the rapid decline of domestic copper inventories, the game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified, complicating market analysis [3] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63000 yuan/ton (- 300), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60850 yuan/ton (- 450). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2150 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] - **Market Analysis**: Fundamentally, the prices of various ores in the cost side have dropped significantly. Although the production cost of lithium carbonate has decreased, the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry has slightly decreased, but the overall output remains high. As the temperature rises, the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further increase, and the supply of low - cost lithium salt will increase, potentially suppressing market prices. In terms of demand, the production of cathode materials is stable, and the power battery market is growing steadily. The terminal consumer market has potential due to the launch of new technology models and policy incentives, but it is not strong enough to drive prices up. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory has continued to accumulate. As of May 16, the weekly inventory is 131920 (+ 351) physical tons, including 56522 (+ 1670) physical tons in smelters, 41428 (- 728) physical tons in downstream enterprises, and 33970 (- 591) physical tons in other sectors. The monthly inventory in April is 96202 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 51% and a month - on - month increase of 7%, with downstream inventory at 45169 (+ 5876) physical tons and smelter inventory at 51033 (+ 256) physical tons. Overall, due to the weakening cost support and macro - disturbances, both spot and futures prices have declined, and the subsequent focus is on the 60,000 yuan/ton integer support level [5] 3.6 Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan/ton, the operating rate in Tangshan is 83.56%, the social inventory of rebar is 532.76 million tons, and the inventory in rebar steel mills is 200.4 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term outlook, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policy support for the real estate industry is helping it to stabilize. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices have oscillated weakly this week. The cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and steel mill inventories of steel are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the fundamentals are also improving, showing a situation of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [7] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the inventory of imported coking coal at ports is 337.38 million tons; and the inventory of coke at ports is 246.10 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is steadily recovering, and the capacity utilization rate of coking plants is stable. Although there are some disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, the overall volume remains high. In terms of demand, steel mills are reducing production, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory, independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [8] 3.8 Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.1, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 765 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. On the supply side, Australian shipments have decreased after the end of the quarterly rush, while Brazilian shipments have continued to increase, and the global total shipments have slightly decreased. The port inventory has decreased by 112.39 million tons to 1.48 billion tons, indicating a short - term reduction in arrival pressure. On the demand side, the domestic steel mill's hot metal production has increased to 240.22 million tons per day, and the resumption of blast furnaces has led to a 2.46 - million - ton increase in the daily consumption of imported ore. However, steel mills are still cautious in raw material procurement and mainly replenish inventory as needed. Overseas demand is divided, with increased production in Indian steel mills supporting some demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric arc furnaces is strengthening, reducing the dependence on iron ore. In addition, the repeated adjustment of US tariff policies has intensified the volatility of global commodity prices, and market concerns about the trade war have limited the upward space for iron ore prices [9] 3.9 Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of increased supply, supporting oil prices. However, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by institutions has led to continued oscillation in crude oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside of oil prices is restricted. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. In the long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift downward, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel and may oscillate around this level. OPEC has significantly lowered the global demand growth rate for the next two years. The escalation of the US trade war and the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration have raised concerns about global demand. The repeated delays in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations have increased uncertainty [10] 3.10 Rubber - **Market Analysis**: Attention should be paid to overseas orders and domestic demand. The limited improvement in the fundamentals and the repeated situation after the positive news of the easing of the China - US trade war have restricted the rebound of rubber prices, which are mainly in a weak oscillation. Fundamentally, the tapping of domestic whole - latex has started, with 70% of the areas in Yunnan tapped and the supply of glue in Hainan increasing. In Southeast Asian producing areas, the tapping in northeastern Thailand has started, and the southern part will start tapping after May, resulting in an overall loose supply. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. Market speculation about the trade war and other macro - narratives, as well as the possible US automobile tariff, may seriously suppress global rubber demand, and rubber prices are generally weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11][12] 3.11 PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 77.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 77.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.87%. In terms of demand, there has been no significant improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of May 15, the PVC social inventory (47 samples) decreased by 3.07% week - on - week to 64.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 58.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.84%, and the inventory in South China was 5.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.09%. On May 21, the futures price rebounded. Previously, affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC futures price rebounded significantly, but there has been no obvious improvement in the fundamentals, and the upward space may be limited, with the futures price oscillating at a low level [13] 3.12 Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1421.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1450 yuan/ton, 1500 yuan/ton, and 1400 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged from the previous period [15] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.47%. The soda ash production was 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 million tons, a decline of 8.52%. The scheduled maintenance has led to a decrease in supply. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 171.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 million tons, a decline of 0.63%, and the enterprise inventory has not fluctuated much. It is understood that the social inventory is on a downward trend, with a decline of more than 1 million tons and a total of more than 36 million tons. The demand is average, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for low - priced goods on a rigid - demand basis but still resist high - priced goods. Overall, due to the combination of plant maintenance and the realization of new production capacity, the futures market is expected to continue to oscillate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to plant maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, futures closed with mixed results: 30 - year down 0.08%, 10 - year flat, 5 - year up 0.03%, 2 - year up 0.02%. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. It's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, futures showed mixed performance. The eight - department joint measures support small - and - micro - enterprise financing. Despite weak recovery momentum, China's equity assets are still favored in the long - term, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold rose 3.23% and silver 2.45%. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [12][13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, futures rebounded slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and supply pressure has eased. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels, with light positions [14][15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, futures oscillated. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke prices may resume downward adjustment. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [16][17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and investors can consider out - of - the - money call options for manganese - silicon; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [17][18] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs are concerns. Short - selling the main contract is considered [19][20][21] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose. Although trade demand has recovered, short - selling the main contract is considered [22][23] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, futures fell 1.94%. Supply pressure persists, but demand and cost factors suggest short - term strength with limited upside [24][25] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, futures declined. Supply may increase, and demand may improve. A weak - oscillation trend is expected [26][27] PVC - Last trading day, futures rose 0.32%. Supply is increasing, and demand for exports is good, but the upside is limited [28][29][30] Urea - Last trading day, futures rose 0.22%. Policy adjustments and upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a strong - oscillation trend [31][32] PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 contract rose 1.17%. Short - term caution is needed due to crude - oil price fluctuations and supply - demand changes [33] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 contract rose 1.14%. Supply - demand structure has improved, but cost support is insufficient. Interval trading is considered [34] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, futures fell 0.23%. Supply has decreased, and demand has improved, but cost factors limit the upside. Oscillation adjustment is expected [35][36] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.37%. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, but cost support is weak. Follow - up cost - based oscillation is expected [37] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.36%. Raw - material prices are oscillating, and supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Follow - up cost - based operation is expected [38][39] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.47%. Short - term supply has decreased, but long - term oversupply persists. A stable - oscillation trend is expected [40] Glass - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.98%. There is no obvious driving force in the market, and short - term sentiment may recover [41][43] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the 2509 contract fell 1.33%. Production has decreased, and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [44] Pulp - Last trading day, the 2507 contract rose 0.59%. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. A short - term rebound is expected, but long - term factors need attention [45][46][47] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, futures rose 0.59%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Risk control is recommended in the short - term [48] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. After a significant increase, there is a callback pressure. Short - selling the main contract is considered [49][50] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is uncertain. A bearish - oscillation trend is expected [51] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment recovery [52] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - Last trading day, industrial - silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and a bearish view is maintained [53] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose 1.91%, and soybean - oil futures rose 0.23%. Supply is expected to be abundant, and different strategies are recommended for each [54][55][56] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. Domestic imports have decreased, and inventory is low. Considering expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [57][58][59] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures showed mixed results. Chinese imports and inventories have changed. Buying rapeseed meal after a correction is considered [60][61] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. Tariff suspension may benefit exports. Buying on dips is considered [62][63][65] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian production is low, and domestic inventory is low. Interval trading is recommended [66][68][69] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures had little change. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Buying after a correction is considered [71][72][73] Hogs - Yesterday, the national average hog price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price was flat. Supply is increasing, and selling on rebounds is considered [76][77] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose 0.09%, and starch futures fell 0.15%. Supply pressure exists in the short - term, and temporary observation is recommended [78][79] Logs - Last trading day, the 2507 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [80][81]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, compared to 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - The mid - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2850 yuan/ton (-30), 2860 yuan/ton (-30), and 2870 yuan/ton (-10) respectively [2] - A phased Sino - US trade agreement has been reached, but long - term contradictions remain. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are in the peak export period [2] - Soybean supply is gradually recovering, and the oil mill operating rate is increasing. The supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating slowly in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2198 yuan/ton in Northeast and Inner Mongolia, 2419 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3] - The Sino - US joint statement on tariff reduction has a short - term impact on corn prices, and the USDA May report is bearish for US corn futures. Domestically, the supply pressure has eased, but downstream demand is weak [3] - The price of domestic corn is mainly determined by its own fundamentals, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited [3] Group 4: Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78210 - 781470, up 230, with a premium of 340 - 440. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and copper inventory in China is declining rapidly, making the market more complex [4] - Copper prices have not completely escaped the influence of moving averages, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63350 (-900) yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 62850 (-1550) yuan/ton. The price difference is 2050 (+650) yuan/ton [5] - The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. Supply is high, demand is improving but not strong enough, and inventory is accumulating [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the cost is fluctuating. Social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended as the negative feedback of the black market is gradually reflected in the price [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of main coking coal and metallurgical coke are 1205 yuan/ton and 1340 yuan/ton respectively. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and that of coke is 246.10 million tons [9] - Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, inventory is slowly accumulating, and the profit of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to the loose supply [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.35, and the prices of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) are 762 and 763 respectively [10] - Supply is slightly decreasing, demand is mixed, and the US tariff policy adds uncertainty. The market is influenced by multiple factors [10] - The iron ore 2509 contract may oscillate in the short term, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The market expects oversupply, and the price may decline in the long - term. The WTI main contract may oscillate around 55 - 65 dollars/barrel [11] - The resurgence of the US - Iran negotiation and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating add uncertainty to the oil market [11] Group 10: Rubber - The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the production season. The US auto tariff may suppress global demand [12][13] - Rubber may oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and inventory changes [12][13] Group 11: PVC - The spot price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The production enterprise operating rate has decreased, demand is still weak, and inventory has decreased [14] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak fundamentals [14][15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The operating rate and production of soda ash have decreased, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Demand is average [16] - The soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to device maintenance and emergencies [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan. The 5 - month LPR was lowered by 10bp. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][7] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. China's gold imports reached a new high in 11 months last month. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the market is in a weak - oscillation pattern. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [14][15] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The high iron - water production supports the demand for iron ore, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation level has declined, and the futures rebounded after being supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. For coke, although the steel - mill iron - water production is high, some steel mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The futures may continue to decline in the short term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [18][19][20] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. High - level inventories put pressure on the market. For manganese - silicon, investors can consider out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s crude - oil production increase continues, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upwards. The inventory in the ARA region and Singapore has decreased, and the global trade demand has recovered. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main fuel - oil contract [26][27] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract declined. The PX load has decreased, and the import volume has declined. The short - term crude - oil price fluctuates, and the PX valuation is being repaired. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost - end crude - oil changes and macro - policy adjustments [27] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract declined. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations and pay attention to risk control [28] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract declined. The supply has decreased, the port inventory may continue to decline slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29][30] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract declined. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, the downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to risk control [31] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract declined. The raw - material cost support still exists, the supply load has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and attention should be paid to cost - price changes [32][33] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed down. Multiple device overhauls have led to a reduction in supply, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. The price may continue to fluctuate steadily [34] Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed up. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree needs to be considered [35][37] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed down. The production has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is limited. The price of alumina may support the price of caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid - chlorine prices [38] Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed up. The tariff negotiation has achieved results, giving the pulp market some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction actions of international pulp mills and the implementation of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [39][40][41] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, lithium - carbonate prices have continuously hit new lows. The supply may increase, and the demand may weaken. The current supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is advisable to control risks in the short term, and the price rebound needs the support of large - scale upstream production reduction [42][43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downwards. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on the real economy and the callback pressure after the sharp rise of Shanghai copper are factors to consider. It is advisable to conduct short - position operations on the main Shanghai - copper contract [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply may increase in the future, but the current consumption data is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the upward pressure on the tin price is relatively large. It is advisable to take a short - position view [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the downstream loss has increased, and the demand may weaken. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [47] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon and polysilicon main contracts declined. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply reduction is limited, and the cost support has weakened. The price fluctuation has intensified. It is recommended to maintain a short - position view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [48] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract declined, and the soybean - oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans may be abundant in the future. It is advisable to observe the soybean - meal main contract, and for soybean oil, out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom - support range [49][50] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [51][53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a callback [54][55] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The suspension of Sino - US tariff increases is beneficial to cotton. The global cotton supply - demand situation and domestic planting conditions need to be considered. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [56][57][58] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and range - bound operations are advisable [59][60][61] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures had little fluctuation. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a callback [62][63][64] Pigs - The national average price of pigs declined slightly. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe [65][66] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply may increase. It is advisable to go short after a rebound [67][69] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand. It is advisable to temporarily observe [70][71][72] Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of logs closed down. The expected arrival volume has increased, but the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. The market has no obvious driving force [73][74]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [13]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [14][15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [16][17]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and also consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [18][19]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25]. - For PX, it is recommended to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policy adjustments [26]. - For PTA, it is recommended to conduct range trading and control risks [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and caution is needed for the upside space, paying attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29]. - For staple fiber, it is recommended to participate cautiously and control risks [30][31]. - For bottle chips, it is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [32]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - For glass, it is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [35]. - For caustic soda, it is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - For pulp, it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [39][40]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to run weakly [41]. - For copper, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - For tin, it is expected that the price will face greater pressure above, and a bearish and fluctuating view is taken [44]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season, and maintain a bearish judgment overall [46][47][48]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - For cotton, wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - For sugar, conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - For apples, focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - For eggs, consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - For corn and starch, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price runs lightly, with weak support for the futures price [73][74]. Summaries According to the Catalog Chemical Products - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.31%. Supply decreased, port arrivals decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and demand improved, but the lack of cost drivers suppressed the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [29]. - **Staple Fiber**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.58%. The supply load was at a relatively high level, the downstream terminal demand improved slightly, but the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust following the cost end in the short term [30][31]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.61%. The raw material cost support remained, the supply load increased, and the downstream demand improved. It is expected to follow the cost end in the future [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1284 yuan/ton, down 1.91%. In the short term, supply decreased due to device maintenance, but in the long - term, the oversupply situation was difficult to alleviate. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1018 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There was no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 2586 yuan/ton, up 1.77%. Production decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand for alumina increased. It is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 5390 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The supply was abundant, the downstream consumption was weak, and it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.5%. The supply - demand structure improved, the inventory decreased, but the cost support was insufficient. It is recommended to conduct range trading [27][28]. - **PX**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.3%. The PXN spread continued to repair, the supply load decreased, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [26]. Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The previous trading day's main contract closed down 2.27% to 61180 yuan/ton. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to run weakly [41]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day's Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, and the price adjusted in the high - level range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day's Shanghai tin rose 0.15% to 264390 yuan/ton. There was a game between the current shortage pattern and the loose expectation. It is expected that the price will face greater pressure above [44]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel fell 0.31% to 123520 yuan/ton. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The previous trading day's industrial silicon main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, down 1.87%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 37150 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The demand was weak, the supply reduction was limited, and it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.55% to 2886 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.31% to 7776 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans was expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal was high, and for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory was accumulating. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The German winter rapeseed planting area increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. Consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The Sino - US tariff suspension was beneficial to cotton. Wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian production was low but was expected to increase. The domestic inventory was low and the import volume was low. Conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fluctuated little. The inventory was at a low level in recent years. Focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day's national average price of live pigs was 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.01. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day's main - producing area egg average price was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10; the main - selling area egg average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.10. The supply was expected to increase, and consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.55% to 2330 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.78% to 2669 yuan/ton. The supply pressure was still there in the short term, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price was running weakly [73][74]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, with caution advised [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.54%, and the silver main contract rose 0.40%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [10][11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The demand for rebar was weak, but there was short - term support in the peak season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern improved, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24%, and the silicon iron main contract fell 0.45%. The demand was weak, and different strategies are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [18][19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the price pressure was high. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand recovered. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25].

本次下调落实后，2 0 2 5年以来，国内成品油零售限价已达5次下调，国内多地9 2 #汽油将有望 自 2 1 年 底 之 后 重 新 进 入 " 6 元 时 代 " ， 0 # 柴 油 亦 有 望 进 入 2 1 年 以 来 的 低 位 水 平 ， 部 分 省 份 进 入" 6 . 5元"以内。 作 者丨费心懿 编 辑丨骆一帆 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制， 2 0 2 5年5月1 9日2 4时汽、柴油零售限价分别下调2 3 0元/吨、2 2 0元/吨，折升价9 2 #汽油、9 5 # 汽油、0 #柴油分别下调0 . 1 8元、0 . 1 9元、0 . 1 9元。 消费者用油成本减少， 以油箱容量为5 0升的家用轿车为例，加满一箱9 2 #汽油将少花 9 元 。 以 月 跑 2 0 0 0 公 里 ， 百 公 里 平 均 油 耗 8L 的 燃 油 汽 车 为 例 ， 下 次 调 价 窗 口 开 启 前 （ 6 月 3 日 2 4 时 ） ， 单 辆 车 的 燃 油 成 本 将 减 少 1 4 元 左 右 。 物 流 行 业 ， 以 月 跑 1 0 0 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, global economic recession risks, and policy adjustments. Different sectors show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, believes in the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and has different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 14, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. The current macro data is stable, but tariffs may lead to a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is recommended to be cautious as the Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the increasing risk of global economic recession due to tariffs, may lead to passive monetary policy easing in various countries, which is expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The progress of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade statement and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in the US have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will rise, and it is recommended to go long on the Shanghai copper main contract [51]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The复产 of mines in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar increases the supply expectation, while the current supply is tight. It is expected that tin prices will face upward pressure and show a bearish - oscillating trend [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The tightening of the ore supply policy in Indonesia and the Philippines provides cost support, but the downstream is in a state of over - supply. It is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [54]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the market is worried about oversupply. After the short - term rise, crude oil may face a correction. It is recommended to take a short position on the crude oil main contract [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is beneficial for the recovery of fuel oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the fuel oil main contract [24][25]. Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. Supply pressure persists, but the demand side is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost side has rebounded significantly. It is expected to be short - term bullish [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand side may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [29]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [31]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The adjustment of domestic export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish - oscillating trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [34]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread is continuously repairing, and the supply and demand situation is improving. With the upward repair of crude oil prices and positive macro - sentiment, PX is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to participate on dips [36]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The supply side has decreased, the demand side has increased, and the cost side is supported. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to repair upward. It is recommended to operate in the low - range [37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increase is not obvious, the port inventory is decreasing, and the demand side is improving. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will continue to rise. It is recommended to participate on dips [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to go long on dips [41]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw material price is rising, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and rebound [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract rose. The raw material prices are falling, the production is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The market is in a loose pattern, but short - term adjustments may occur due to device maintenance. Short - position holders at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short - term, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina downstream is limited, but some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may provide some driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [46]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff breakthrough has given some confidence to the pulp market, but the supply - demand situation is still loose. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to international pulp mill production cuts and domestic consumption stimulus policies [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply side is difficult to further reduce production, the demand side is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to show a bearish trend [50]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options [58]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil rose. The inventory in Malaysia has increased, and Indonesia has raised the export tax. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures showed mixed performance. The 45Z bio - fuel tax credit extension is negative for rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rapeseed meal after a correction [62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose slightly. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report is negative, but the Sino - US negotiation is progressing smoothly, which is beneficial for cotton. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but there may be a short - term support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose slightly. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level with low imports. It is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to operate within the range [68]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. There is a production reduction in some apple - producing areas, and the current inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the spot price will be strong in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after a correction [71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the live pig futures main contract rose. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg futures main contract fell slightly. The egg supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide some support. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log futures main contract rose. The import volume of logs and sawn timber has decreased, and the spot price shows regional differentiation. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures [82].