投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 宏观利好落地，有色板块先扬后抑 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-03 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 有色金属价格监测 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 02 PART TWO 铜（CU） 逻辑及策略 | | | | 铜产业链逻辑及策略 标题行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | 宏观因素 | 偏空 | （1）中美领导人于韩国会晤，双方确认吉隆坡磋商成果，当前来看，双方近期谈判取得的成效较为显著，短期中美贸易摩擦风 | | | | | 险有望进一步降温。（2）美联储如期降息25bp ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade - China's economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5% [2] - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, with an average of 5.2% [2] - Domestic fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating steady domestic demand [2] - Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year from January to September, aided by the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30 resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of a 24% tariff [3] - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns and increased risk appetite, contributing to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has decreased, with the current RRR at 9% [4] - The likelihood of further RRR cuts this year is low due to the current economic conditions and the easing of trade tensions [4] - The central bank has resumed trading in government bonds, which serves as an alternative to RRR cuts for liquidity management [4] - Increased operations in reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) indicate a compensatory measure for the market [4] - Overall, the expectation of monetary easing is diminishing, leading to a potential decline in government bond futures prices in the fourth quarter [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 4000 points after ten years, with a peak of 4025.7 points reached last Thursday[6] - The power equipment sector led the market with a 4.29% increase, while the communication sector fell by 3.59%[6] Financial Data - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in risk appetite for leveraged funds[6] - Northbound trading volume increased by 19% to an average of 265.7 billion yuan, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 760 million yuan[6] Economic Indicators - Industrial added value growth is expected to decline to approximately 5.5% year-on-year in October[4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decrease by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop by 2.2%[4] Investment Trends - Retail sales growth is anticipated to slow to around 1% due to weakened consumption in sectors like automobiles[4] - Export growth is forecasted at 2.5% for October, facing challenges from high base effects[4] Credit and Investment - New credit issuance is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 300 billion yuan in new loans for October[4] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth is projected to rebound but will still show a cumulative decline of about 0.8%[4]

Core Insights - The recent consensus between China and the U.S. on expanding agricultural trade has relieved American soybean farmers, who are optimistic about renewed purchases from Chinese companies [3][11]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - In response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, China has imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans and pork starting March 10, 2025 [5]. - Following the U.S. government's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, China increased tariffs on all U.S. imports by 34% [7]. - The tariff rate on U.S. goods was further raised to 84% in April [9]. Group 2: Impact on Soybean Market - China's import tariff on U.S. soybeans surged from 3% to 97% after the tariff increases [11]. - Despite a temporary suspension of certain tariffs in May, U.S. soybean exports to China have not improved, with reports indicating that China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since then [11]. - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with only 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S., highlighting the significant drop in U.S. market share [13]. Group 3: Storage and Supply Issues - Due to unsold soybean stock, U.S. soybean inventories exceeded expectations, reaching 1.008 billion bushels as of June 1, a 3.9% increase year-on-year [13]. - A concrete warehouse in Martin, Illinois, collapsed under the weight of approximately 816 tons of soybeans, illustrating the severe storage issues faced by U.S. farmers [13][15]. Group 4: Industry Concerns - The American Soybean Association has expressed concerns over financial pressures on farmers due to tariffs and reduced sales, urging the government to negotiate a new trade agreement with China [15]. - The total value of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 is projected to be around $24.5 billion, with over $12.5 billion attributed to orders from China [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the expansion of agricultural trade, which has relieved American soybean farmers [2][11] - The U.S. government previously imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports citing fentanyl concerns, leading to a reciprocal 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans and pork by China starting March 10, 2025 [3][11] - Following the tariff increases, China's import tariff on U.S. soybeans surged from 3% to 97%, significantly impacting U.S. soybean exports to China [11][13] Group 2 - Despite a temporary agreement in May to suspend certain tariffs, U.S. soybean exports to China have not improved, with reports indicating that China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since then [11][13] - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with only 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S., contrasting sharply with Mexico's imports of less than 6 million tons [13] - The U.S. soybean inventory has exceeded expectations, with a total of 1.008 billion bushels reported as of June 1, 2023, marking a 3.9% increase year-on-year [13][15] Group 3 - The American Soybean Association has expressed significant financial pressure on farmers due to tariffs, reduced sales, and rising costs, urging the government to adjust policies and negotiate new trade agreements with China [15][17] - The total value of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 is projected to be around $24.5 billion, with over $12.5 billion attributed to orders from China [17]

Core Insights - The recent consensus between China and the U.S. on expanding agricultural trade has relieved American soybean farmers, who are optimistic about renewed purchases from Chinese enterprises [2] - Despite the agreement, U.S. soybean exports to China have not improved, with reports indicating that China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since May [11][17] - The U.S. soybean market is under significant pressure due to high tariffs and reduced sales, leading to increased inventory levels and financial strain on farmers [15][13] Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The U.S. government announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports in March, prompting China to respond with a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans and pork starting March 10, 2025 [3] - In April, the U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports from 34% to 84%, which was reciprocated by China [6][8] - Following the tariff increases, China's import tariff on U.S. soybeans rose from 3% to 97% [11] Group 2: Market Impact and Inventory Levels - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with only 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S., while Mexico's purchases were significantly lower at under 6 million tons [13] - As of June 1, U.S. soybean inventory reached 1.008 billion bushels, exceeding market expectations and reflecting a 3.9% increase year-on-year [13] - The financial strain on U.S. farmers has been highlighted, with the American Soybean Association urging the government to adjust policies and negotiate new trade agreements with China [15] Group 3: Future Outlook - The specifics of the expanded agricultural trade measures between China and the U.S. remain unclear, including whether new negotiations will be required for agricultural products [17] - In 2024, the total value of U.S. soybean exports is projected to be around $24.5 billion, with over $12.5 billion attributed to orders from China [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pure benzene market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with high inventory and weak demand hindering price rebounds. Attention should be paid to port destocking rhythm and downstream start - up changes [2] - The styrene market will continue its weak consolidation trend. If downstream orders do not improve significantly, styrene will remain under the dual constraints of high inventory and low demand, and the price center may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to subsequent import rhythm and device maintenance dynamics [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On October 30, the styrene main contract closed down 1.41% at 6421 yuan/ton, with a basis of 9 (+62 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 1.47% at 5445 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5350 yuan/ton (-60 yuan/ton), Brent crude oil closed at 60.5 US dollars/barrel (+0.3 US dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 64.9 US dollars/barrel (+0.5 US dollars/barrel) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 19.3 tons (-1 ton), a month - on - month destocking of 4.7%; pure benzene port inventory was 8.5 tons (-1.4 tons), a month - on - month destocking of 14.1% [2] - Supply: Styrene's weekly output was 32.3 tons (-0.4 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 66.7% (-2.5%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 62.2% (+0.2%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 72.1% (-0.7%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.0% (-1.8%) [2] (2) Views - Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Supply is abundant, imports increase port inventory, demand recovery is limited, and the cost - side support is weak [2] - Styrene: The styrene market continues to be weak. Supply is marginally loose, demand is cautious, and high port inventory suppresses the market [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Price Data - Styrene futures and spot prices declined, and the basis increased. Pure benzene futures and spot prices also declined, and the spread between domestic and imported pure benzene widened [5] - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] (2) Output and Inventory Data - Styrene production decreased by 1.09% to 32.3 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.66% to 42.9 tons [6] - Both styrene port and factory inventories decreased, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 14.14% [6] (3) Capacity Utilization Data - Among pure benzene downstream industries, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and caprolactam decreased, while those of phenol and aniline increased [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the ABS and PS capacity utilization rates decreased [7] 3. Industry News - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on China has been cancelled, China is expected to resume "substantial" purchases of US soybeans, and Beijing will postpone the implementation of rare - earth export controls by one year and re - examine the plan [8] - US inflation data in September were lower than expected, increasing the prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut [8] - On the early morning of October 30, the Fed adjusted the interest - rate ceiling to 4% as expected [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts including pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, and inventory and capacity utilization rate of related products [9][13][16]

Core Points - The recent announcement from China's Ministry of Commerce signals a significant development in the US-China trade relationship, indicating that the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for another year, reflecting a fragile balance rather than a new agreement [1][2] - This suspension of tariffs is crucial as it allows a large number of Chinese products to enter the US market at relatively normal tax rates, preventing a potential cost surge for exporters, global supply chains, and US consumers [2] - The agreement reached in Kuala Lumpur encompasses broader issues beyond tariffs, indicating a systematic exchange of interests and risk management between the two nations [3][5] Tariff Significance - The 24% tariff is a symbolic "high-pressure line" in the trade conflict, representing the peak of US-China trade tensions, and its continued suspension is a relief for many stakeholders [2] - The language used in the announcement emphasizes a principle of reciprocity, highlighting that concessions from China are closely tied to US actions, reinforcing a "you do for me, I do for you" mentality [2] Broader Implications - The agreement includes the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and the suspension of controversial export controls, indicating an effort to de-escalate multiple points of contention simultaneously [5] - The mention of resolving the TikTok issue suggests a strategic separation of economic and geopolitical concerns, aiming to prevent further escalation of tensions [5] Underlying Signals - The term "continue to suspend" rather than "cancel" indicates that fundamental structural differences remain, and domestic political pressures in the US towards a hardline stance on China persist [7] - The one-year suspension serves as both a buffer and a testing period for both sides to demonstrate goodwill and build mutual trust for future negotiations [7] - China's use of the term "joint arrangement" reflects a focus on equality and negotiation, showcasing a mature diplomatic approach [7] Global Reactions - The swift response from global markets and media underscores the interconnectedness of the US-China relationship with the world economy, with the suspension providing a much-needed stabilizing factor [6] - The ability of the two largest economies to manage their differences through dialogue is viewed as a positive signal for the global economic landscape [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report highlights that Hisense's global layout is entering a harvest period, with significant synergy effects from its multi-brand matrix [1] - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations, primarily due to weak demand for central air conditioning and declining profitability in home appliances [7] - Despite short-term pressures, the report anticipates that emerging markets will become a major growth driver for the company, with overseas revenue expected to increase [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 93.995 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.467 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [6] - The report indicates a decrease in earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, now estimated at 34.7 billion yuan, 39.4 billion yuan, and 43.5 billion yuan respectively [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 21.3% in 2025 to 22.1% in 2027 [6] Market Data - As of October 30, 2025, the closing price of Hisense shares is 25.14 yuan, with a market capitalization of 23,082 million yuan [2] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 and a dividend yield of 4.89% [2]