文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 欧元区：6月PMI初值（6/23） ，6月消费者信心指数终值（6/27）。 日本：6月PMI初值（6/23） ，6月东京CPI数据（6/27），5月失业率和求人倍率（6/27），5月零售销售 （6/27）。 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1） 美联储6月FOMC会议维持利率不变，符合预期。 2）5月零售销售低于预期 ，环比-0.9%，预 期-0.6%，前值从0.1%下修至-0.1%，除汽车外的零售销售环比-0.3%，预期0.2%，前值从0.1%下修至0%。 3）5月工业产值低于预期 ，环比-0.2%，预期0%，前值从0上修至0.1%。 4）5月进口价格指数高于预期 ， 环比0%，预期-0.2%，前值0.1%。 5） 5月新屋开工折年125.6万套，预期135万套，前值从136.1万套上修至 139.2万套。 欧元区：5月CPI终值符合预期 。CPI同比终值1.9%，预期1.9%，初值从1.9%上修为2.2%，前值2.2%；核 心CPI同比2.3%，初值2.3%，前值2.3%。 日本：1） 日央行6月会议维持 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: June 23 - 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Fed's hawkish signals pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the gold price. However, geopolitical risks (escalation of the Middle - East conflict) and ETF purchases (an 8.31 - ton weekly increase in SPDR) provided support, causing gold to enter a consolidation phase. Next week, focus on economic data (core PCE, non - farm payrolls) and geopolitical situations. Weak data strengthening the interest - rate cut expectation or new changes in the Middle - East may lead to a gold price rebound; a continuously strengthening US dollar may continue to drive the price down. Central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but policy fluctuations may intensify short - term volatility [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 774 - 782, and the upper resistance was 800 - 808 [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 766 - 775, and the upper resistance is 800 - 808 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a consolidation phase, and it may be near the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price first rose and then fell, mainly driven by fluctuations in Fed policy expectations (interest rates remained unchanged but the easing expectation increased) and US dollar fluctuations. The industrial property of silver (surge in photovoltaic demand + global shortage) drove the silver price to a new high. The repair of the gold - silver ratio strengthened the upward trend, but hawkish signals and the stabilization of the US dollar led to profit - taking. Next week, a tight supply - demand balance (low inventory) and dovish expectations are expected to support a relatively strong consolidation. Be vigilant against the suppression of a US dollar rebound, and the impact of geopolitical risks is limited [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver's internal - external price difference [41][43][45]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 继续观望，直至前景明朗 ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美联储议息会议上，美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明的关 键调整在于强调不确定性减弱但仍偏高。经济预测方面，美联储下调近两年 GDP 增速预期、 上调近三年通胀和失业率预期。降息路径方面，本次会议公布的点阵图结论上仍维持年内累计 降息 50BP 预期，但分布有所上移且趋于分散。总之，关税政策及其经济影响的不确定性导致 美联储倾向保持观望。向前看，经济数据的表现仍是决定未来货币政策的重中之重，未来降息 与否的关键在于：滞与胀谁先到来。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 继续观望，直至前景明朗 2] ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently a focal point for investors amid ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange market, with predictions suggesting a potential test of the 145.00 level, while the major resistance at 145.50 is expected to remain intact in the short term [1][3]. Short-term Outlook - There is a possibility for the USD/JPY exchange rate to test the critical level of 145.00 due to the complex global macroeconomic environment and differences in monetary policy and economic performance between the US and Japan [3]. - The US economy shows resilience in the job market despite fluctuations in economic data, and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could attract international capital into USD assets, pushing the USD/JPY rate closer to 145.00 [3]. - Japan's long-standing accommodative monetary policy continues to exert pressure on the yen, providing support for the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate [3]. - The technical resistance at 145.50 is expected to limit further upward movement due to significant sell orders accumulated around this level [3]. Long-term Outlook - The USD/JPY exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 143.00 to 145.50, based on a comprehensive assessment of various factors [4]. - The economic growth patterns and development pace of the US and Japan differ significantly, with the US economy driven by consumption, investment, and international trade, while Japan faces challenges such as an aging population and insufficient domestic demand [4]. - Japan's strengths in high-end manufacturing and technological innovation provide some stability to its economy, which helps to limit excessive depreciation of the yen [4]. Monetary Policy Impact - The divergence in monetary policy between the two countries is a key factor influencing the long-term trajectory of the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. - The Federal Reserve adjusts its monetary policy flexibly in response to economic conditions, while the Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose monetary policies to stimulate growth and combat deflation [5]. - This policy divergence will affect the supply and demand dynamics of both currencies, contributing to the expected range of 143.00 to 145.50 for the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. - Global geopolitical developments, changes in the international trade environment, and fluctuations in investor risk appetite will also impact the USD/JPY exchange rate [5].

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for May 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected 6.0% and the previous value of 6.1% [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, below the expected 4.1% and the previous value of 4.0% [3] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to fewer working days and a lag in production due to tariff adjustments, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries like textiles [3] - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2%, indicating a slight improvement from April [3] Consumption Growth Challenges - The significant rise in retail sales is driven by holiday consumption and promotional activities, reaching a new high in nearly a year [4] - Automotive sales increased by 11.2% year-on-year, but overall sales revenue growth is limited due to pricing factors [4] - Future consumption may struggle to maintain current levels due to policy adjustments and potential overconsumption [4] Investment Needs Policy Support - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year [4] - Ten out of twelve sub-sectors in manufacturing saw a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in transportation equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting [4] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 9.3%, with local debt pressures limiting project funding [5] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with sales in major cities dropping and funding sources for real estate companies decreasing by 10.5% year-on-year [5] Fixed Income Research - The overall issuance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a range of -7 basis points to 6 basis points [7] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in net financing [7] - The secondary market for credit bonds has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with most varieties experiencing growth [7] - The credit spreads for medium and short-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds have generally narrowed [7] Industry Research - The metal industry is experiencing traditional seasonal characteristics, with demand expected to decline as summer approaches [15] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to increasing inventory pressures [15] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but lack upward momentum in the short term [15] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with a need to monitor macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations [15] - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, leading to expected price weakness [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 17 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-17） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，主流矿山发运量小幅回落态势， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.19 万吨至 241.61 万吨，连续五周下行，基本 | | | | | 面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。当前螺矿比和焦矿比已经 | | | | | 处于历史较低水平，铁矿在黑色板块中估值相对偏高，需求进入季节性淡 | | | | | 季，若铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单建议继 | | | | | 续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿 | | | 煤焦 | 低位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weak Bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and concerns about crude oil supply have led to a significant increase in international oil prices. Coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits from the rising energy costs. However, the long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear due to the potential drag on global economic recovery. In China, the May social financing performance remains weak, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises, and only government bond financing provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down, while the social retail growth rate has increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting price levels. The State Council executive meeting has proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also rumors that the crude steel production limit is about 30 million tons, less than the previously expected 50 million tons. Overall, the May economic data is weak, but the market reaction after the data release on the 16th was positive, with the real estate sector rising significantly [5]. - For coking coal, the production of mines and coal washing plants has been significantly reduced, but the inventory in mines and coal washing plants is still rising, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The reduction in supply has not effectively affected the inventory. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost has reached a low level, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, the blast furnace profit is maintained at around 100, the molten iron output is stable, and the supply - demand of coke has marginally improved [6]. - The probability of further expansion of the Israel - Iran conflict is limited. The night - session decline in crude oil prices has led to a weakening of coking coal. Unless crude oil price fluctuations increase again, coking coal will return to its own logic. In extreme market conditions, capital game dominates. Since the recent rebound, the net position of the top 20 in coking coal has significantly converged, but the total position has not significantly decreased, indicating that the battle between long and short positions is not over. It is recommended to hold a small - position long order of J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 795.5 yuan/ton (+21), the basis is 102.5 yuan/ton (-21), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-1.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production continues to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has been adjusted downward. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 57.36% (-3.23), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.8604 million tons (+53,100 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.5147 million tons (+64,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.7398 million tons (+30,700 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 6.6953 million tons (-210,000 tons), and the port inventory is 3.1202 million tons (-10,000 tons) [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1371 yuan/ton (+21.5), the basis is - 5 yuan/ton (-21.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (-4.5) [4]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average molten iron output is 2.4161 million tons (-19,000 tons) [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction, and downstream inventory continues to decrease. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 87,310 tons (-1,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 642,840 tons (-2,960 tons), and the port inventory is 203,090 tons (-11,060 tons) [4]

Market Performance - On June 11, most of the four major A-share stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52% to 3402.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83% to 10246.02 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.21% to 2061.87 points, while the STAR 50 Index fell 0.2% to 980.93 points. Market turnover was 1286.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 164.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+2.02%), and non-bank finance (+1.9%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-0.41%), communications (-0.28%), and beauty care (-0.1%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IC > IH > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3411/264/1737 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -5, -45, -52, and 102 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +151, +159, -92, and -217 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Trading Strategy - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 135.31, 105.35, 55.23, and 42.14 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -19.53%, -16.24%, -12.66%, and -13.97% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 5%, 5%, 1%, and 3% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [3]. - In the short term, due to the large discount of small - cap stock indices, which may be the result of the expansion of neutral product scale this year, and the relatively high proportion of short positions in neutral products, the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on the economy and allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Cash Bond and Trading Strategy - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.08, and an IRR of 1.83%. Similar data are provided for 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [4]. - In the cash bond market, the supply is currently stronger than demand, but this pattern is expected to change. In the futures market, the CTD bond price of near - month contracts is low, and the IRR is high, so short - sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on near - month contract prices and causing far - month premiums. It is recommended to go long in the short term and short in the long term, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data show that the recent import and export sentiment has rebounded [11].