Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, the four major A-share stock indices were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to close at 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 2277.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.19% to close at 1007.53 points. Market turnover was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.1%), basic chemicals (+1.36%), and steel (+1.34%) led the gains; media (-0.98%), electronics (-0.49%), and light manufacturing (-0.41%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,600/247/2,567 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -13.5 billion, -12.1 billion, 3.6 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -25.9 billion, -6.7 billion, +13.1 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 62.07, 45.61, 4.55, and -3.68 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -11.28%, -8.9%, -1.33%, and 1.59% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 29%, 18%, 45%, and 66% respectively [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Spot bonds: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.01, and an IRR of 1.57%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.26%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.36% [4]. - Funding situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 187.5 billion yuan and withdrew 84.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has seen a recovery in prosperity as industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by tariffs, geopolitical situations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, with a general outlook remaining bullish after adjustments [1][6][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3,363.64 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the week, reaching a high of $3,376.99 and a low of $3,309.90, ultimately closing at $3,350.90, reflecting a weekly decline of $6.86 or 0.2% [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The market sentiment was affected by comments from U.S. officials regarding tariff negotiations and interest rate policies, which reduced risk concerns and pressured gold prices [3][4][7]. - The dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations provided support for gold prices, indicating potential for upward movement despite short-term fluctuations [4][6]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high, which could favor gold prices in the long term [7]. - The overall economic outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently anticipated, potentially leading to significant increases in gold prices in the coming years [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential risk of a downturn to $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average [10]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $3,341 and $3,334, with resistance at $3,365 and $3,385 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that foreign exchange trading is significantly influenced by various factors, including economic data, monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Group 2 - Economic data such as GDP growth, employment rates, and inflation levels are critical indicators affecting currency demand and value [1] - Strong economic growth typically leads to increased demand for a country's currency, while low unemployment rates support the currency's value [1] - High inflation can weaken a currency's purchasing power, potentially leading to depreciation [1] Group 3 - Monetary policy plays a decisive role in foreign exchange trading, with central banks adjusting interest rates and money supply to achieve economic goals [2] - Higher interest rates attract foreign capital, increasing demand for the currency and leading to appreciation, while lower rates may result in capital outflows and depreciation [2] - Quantitative easing can also impact currency value by increasing the money supply [2] Group 4 - Geopolitical factors such as international trade disputes, regional conflicts, and political instability can disrupt normal market operations [2] - Trade tensions may affect a country's trade balance and economic growth, influencing currency value [2] - Political instability can lead investors to seek safer assets, impacting the demand for certain currencies [2] Group 5 - Market sentiment and investor expectations significantly influence foreign exchange market trends [3] - Optimistic market sentiment can drive funds towards riskier assets, benefiting emerging market currencies, while pessimism leads to a flight to safety [3] - Actual economic data and policy developments that deviate from investor expectations can trigger significant market volatility [3]

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The second round of tariffs is expected to be implemented in July-August, but it is unlikely to reverse the current improvement in market risk appetite[6] - The market perceives the new tariffs as pressure tactics before agreement deadlines, with delayed economic transmission effects[11] - Despite tariff increases, the market remains resilient, driven by micro-level trading and positive earnings guidance from the upcoming earnings season[13] Group 2: Economic Data and Future Outlook - Economic data will be crucial in determining market direction, with a key observation window in Q3 mid to Q4[18] - The economic impact of tariffs may not fully materialize until Q4, with initial effects from the first round of tariffs expected to show in Q3 data[18] - A significant slowdown in economic growth is anticipated due to tariffs, but inflation risks are expected to remain contained[21] Group 3: Market Performance and Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.31% and 0.08% respectively during the week of July 5-12, 2025[22] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell from 98.8 to 98.6, indicating concerns over high inventory levels affecting business confidence[27] - The technology sector continues to lead market performance, reflecting a recovery in earnings expectations post-tariff easing[13]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The economic data released this week is basically in line with expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows that external demand drives strong production, while domestic consumption weakens marginally and the real estate sector undergoes in - depth adjustment. The foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period, and the possibility of further monetary easing may increase in October after the economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Last week, the money market showed signs of bottoming out and rising, and this week it will face the pressure of the large tax - payment month in July. Despite the central bank's active injection of funds, there is still resistance for interest rates to continue to decline, and the lack of further decline in short - term interest rates limits the downward space for long - term interest rates [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With a loosening money market and a quiet news environment, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and most closed higher. The yields of major on - the - run interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.660%, up 0.1bp [8][9] - **Money Market**: With the central bank's support, the impact of the tax - payment period weakened and the money market loosened. There were 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index declined, indicating a缓和 in the tight money situation. Short - term interest rates also declined slightly. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.46%, the 7 - day rate fell 0.7bp to around 1.52%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 10bp to 1.53% [10] 2. Industry News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing after a 10 - year interval. President Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech, guiding urban work in the new era. Urbanization should follow economic and social development laws and avoid being rushed. Urban ecological construction requires a long - term perspective [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for strengthening the domestic economic cycle, heard reports on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry and the preliminary rectification of problems found in the audit of the 2024 central budget implementation, and reviewed and approved a draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [13] - Wang Huning, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, stated that comprehensively expanding domestic demand is necessary for long - term and sustainable economic development and to meet people's growing needs. More in - depth research results should be produced and applied [13] - Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, wrote in Qiushi magazine that high - level opening - up should be used to expand new space for Chinese - style modernization, including promoting higher - quality, higher - standard, more inclusive, and more secure opening - up [14] - The European Commission announced a new budget proposal for 2028 - 2034, totaling 2 trillion euros, a significant increase from the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the Commission proposed several ways to raise more funds, such as taxing companies with an annual net turnover of over 100 million euros in the EU, which has been questioned by some member states [14] - US President Trump said he has no current plan to take action against Fed Chairman Powell and is unlikely to fire him unless fraud is proven. He also mentioned that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are candidates for Fed positions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on July 17, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as TL2509, T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 221K, which is the lowest since mid-April and significantly below the 234K estimate and June high of 250K, indicating a strong labor market [2] - Continuing Claims slightly increased to 1.956 million from 1.954 million, remaining just below the psychological 2 million mark, with eight consecutive weeks above 1.9 million [3] - Advanced Retail Sales for June rose by 0.6%, exceeding expectations and reversing the previous month's decline of 0.9%, marking the second-highest Retail Sales figure of 2025 [4][5] Import and Export Prices - Import Prices increased by 0.1%, up from a revised -0.4% in the previous month, with year-over-year Import Prices now at -0.2%, contrary to the anticipated +0.3% [6] - Export Prices rose by 0.5% month-over-month, the highest since February, with year-over-year Export Prices at +2.8%, indicating a positive sign for the domestic economy [7] Manufacturing Sector - The Philly Fed manufacturing survey improved to 15.9 in June, a significant increase from -4 in May, marking the highest level since February and suggesting a positive outlook for regional manufacturing [9] Company Earnings - GE Aerospace reported Q2 earnings of $1.66 per share, surpassing the projected $1.43 and the previous year's $1.20, resulting in a positive surprise of 16%, with revenues of $10.15 billion exceeding estimates by 5.12% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index premium has returned to an extreme position; in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips as there is a certain excess return when using stock index long - position substitution [3] - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 15, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.42% to close at 3505 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to close at 10744.56 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.73% to close at 2235.05 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.39% to close at 996.25 points. Market turnover was 1635 billion yuan, an increase of 154.1 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.61%), computer (+1.42%), and electronics (+0.79%) led the gains, while coal (-1.92%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.62%), and public utilities (-1.6%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IC>IM>IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1332, 68, and 4015 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 9.9 billion, - 15.6 billion, 3.3 billion, and 22.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +4.9 billion, - 3.8 billion, - 4.5 billion, and +3.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 90.03, 69.76, 25.86, and 12.23 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.56%, - 12.07%, - 6.7%, and - 4.64% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 15%, 10%, 19%, and 24% respectively [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 15, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.364, down 2.4 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.496, down 3.13 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.597, down 2.53 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.921, down 2.64 bps [3] - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.009, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.69%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 2.1 bps, a net basis of - 0.009, and an IRR of 1.6%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 1.75 bps, a net basis of 0.01, and an IRR of 1.52% [4] - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 342.5 billion yuan and withdrew 69 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 273.5 billion yuan [4] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent real - estate market sentiment has contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [12]

Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - Industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June [1] - Fixed asset investment nationwide grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June [1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Regulatory Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, with 55 varieties included [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting to enhance regulatory enforcement in the live e-commerce sector [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on the revision of safety technical specifications for mobile power supplies [1] - A new restricted technology item related to battery cathode material preparation has been added to the "Directory of Technologies Prohibited from Export" [1] Corporate Announcements - Nvidia will restart the supply of H20 chips to China, with new B series chips expected to be launched within the year [2] - Pop Mart anticipates a profit increase of no less than 350% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit increase of 53%-87% for the first half of the year [2] - China Galaxy expects a net profit of 6.4 billion to 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%-55% [2] - Jilin Permanent Magnet anticipates a net profit increase of 151%-180% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - Geely Holding Group announced a merger agreement with Zeekr Technology, acquiring all remaining shares [2] - Yangdian Technology announced that Hantang Cloud Intelligence will gain control of the company [2] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.18% reaching a new closing high, while the Dow fell by 0.98% and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.4% [3] - Chip stocks rose, with Nvidia increasing by over 4% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.77% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, the central bank's open - market operations have net - injected liquidity, alleviating the market liquidity shortage. After continuous corrections, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield has approached the 1.4% policy rate, with limited upward momentum. So, the downward space for Treasury bond futures is limited, and they rebounded. Macroscopically, although the economic data in the first half of this year was stable with progress, there are still problems of insufficient effective domestic demand and external disturbances. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year to support total economic demand. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices [4] - On July 15, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than in the first quarter [4] - The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 showed that in the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% (calculated on a comparable basis) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Economic fundamentals continue a weak recovery trend, with weak demand and investment and structural issues remaining. After the data release, the index declined to varying degrees and rebounded in the afternoon. The index is expected to continue adjusting in the short term, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged without obvious negative signals [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, all stock indexes except the CSI 300 Index closed down. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2533.8 billion yuan, and the futures contracts all declined with reduced volume [4] Important Information - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow in June. China's economy grew 5.3% year-on-year in H1 2025. In H1 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%. In June, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4228.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year. Consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in H2 [5][7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation - The intraday price changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts were -0.24%, -0.64%, -0.12%, and -0.55% respectively. The trading volumes were 124,297 lots, 61,294 lots, 100,711 lots, and 210,590 lots respectively, with a decrease of 44,249 lots, 19,958 lots, 34,305 lots, and 77,808 lots respectively compared to the previous day. The open interest was 267,331 lots, 97,479 lots, 231,202 lots, and 344,784 lots respectively, with an increase of 3,863 lots, 1,424 lots, 3,901 lots, and 18,183 lots respectively compared to the previous day [8] Spot Market Observation - The price change of the Shanghai Composite Index was -0.42%, and that of the Shenzhen Component Index was 0.56%. The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.33. The trading volume of the two markets was 1612.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 1533.09 billion yuan compared to the previous day [8]