Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a rally, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.25% and the 30-year futures contract increasing by 0.13% as of 10:05 AM [1] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 580.3 billion yuan with a stable interest rate of 1.40%, while yields on major government bonds have generally increased [1] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 4.25 basis points to 1.7875%, and the 30-year bond yield increased by 6.15 basis points to 2.0555% [1] Group 2 - The bond market faced a significant decline due to the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect, with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields rising by up to 5 basis points and 6 basis points, respectively [2] - Long-term bond yields are increasing, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [2] - Despite the market adjustment, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into the bond market, with the 30-year government bond ETF's scale reaching 26.478 billion yuan, a net increase of approximately 1 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Future bond market performance will depend on economic fundamentals, with expectations of a gradual decoupling from stock market trends [3] - Supporting factors for the bond market include ongoing accommodative monetary policy, potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank if yields exceed 1.8%, and a decline in bank funding costs [3] - The 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as a flexible cash management tool and duration adjustment instrument, suitable for both short-term trading and long-term allocation strategies [3]

8月以来，债券市场经历大幅调整，收益率曲线呈现熊陡特征。与今年一季度债市曲线结构整体上移有 所不同，目前债市调整多是由预期而非资金面变动引发。短端债券走势较为平稳，而长债尤其是超长债 调整幅度较大，30年期期债屡创新低。 债市大幅下跌的原因，我们认为主要有两点： 一是，"反内卷"政策成为市场主线，对债市存在供给收敛、物价回升、风险偏好提升三大利空效应。政 策托底预期升温，市场表现出"强预期"的特征。同时，7月以来股市及商品市场持续上行，股市屡次突 破关键整数点位，市场呈现明显的股债"跷跷板"效应，债市资金分流压力加大。从最新公布的存款数据 可以看出，7月居民端存款减少1.13万亿元，非银存款激增2.16万亿元，居民存款搬家现象明显。 首先，7月的PMI、通胀、金融及经济数据已出炉，表现弱于预期。其中，对债市影响较大的信贷数据7 月呈现负增长，除季节性因素之外，6—7月新增信贷仍同比少增2000亿元。从月内票据利率一度接近零 这一表现看，银行冲量特征明显。 其次，从政策端看，央行日前发布的《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》） 显示，上半年货币政策逆周期调节效果较为明显，金融总量平稳增长 ...

债市崩盘：黑色星期一，黎明前的黑暗 午后，阳光透过窗棂，洒在债券交易室里，却无法温暖基金经理老李凝重的神情。满屏的红色，如同鲜 血般刺眼，预示着债市遭遇了一场血腥的屠戮。10年期国债收益率突破1.75%的警戒线，直逼1.8%；30 年期国债收益率更是一举攀升至2.0375%，创下近四个月新高。 这与一个月前市场对收益率跌破1.7%的 预期形成鲜明对比，如今，债市的天花板轰然倒塌。 这场灾难的导火索，并非资金链断裂，而是一种诡异的资金错配。上午9点20分，央行如约进行2380亿 逆回购操作，净投放1160亿，本应是债市的强心剂，却如同杯水车薪。银行交易员小王无奈地摇 头："钱，贵得离谱！"关键指标DR007利率飙升至1.49%，DR001也跃升至1.40%，资金市场亮起刺眼的 黄灯。罪魁祸首，正是企业集中缴税引发的流动性骤减——税期的"抽水"速度，远超央妈"放水"的速 度。"适度宽松"的承诺，如今听起来无比讽刺。 更令人错愕的是，股市一片欣欣向荣。上午10点49分，上证指数突破3700点，涨幅达0.74%，创下三年 新高；中证转债也同步上涨0.69%；近4000只个股飘红，券商营业厅人头攒动，一片欢腾。 而债市 ...

股债"跷跷板"效应明显。 8月18日，A股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指创十年新高。与此同时，国债期货跌幅持续扩大。截至下午收盘，国债期货全线下跌，30年期主 力合约跌1.33%，10年期主力合约跌0.29%，5年期主力合约跌0.21%，2年期主力合约跌0.04%。 在刘有华看来，债市调整的特征为各期限和品种的债券收益率均上行，中长端调整幅度较大，收益率曲线呈"熊陡"走势。从后续的情况来看， 短期内权益市场的持续走强对债市仍有负面影响，可能会导致债市继续震荡调整。然而，从中长期来看，由于经济下行风险仍然存在，宏观 政策和货币政策都有一定的宽松预期，因此债市的调整幅度可能会相对有限。 "本轮债市的调整与基本面背离。"徐晨曦认为，从7月经济数据来看，投资、消费增速双双放缓，大幅低于预期；工业生产亦放缓；房地产销 售、新开工同比仍在下降。货币信贷数据显示，企业和居民信贷需求双弱，社融主要靠政府发债支撑。整体来看，经济下行压力较为明显， 动能偏弱，基本面实际上利于债市，但在股市强烈的赚钱效应下，债市对基本面的反应钝化。调整至今，短端利率上行幅度较小，长端利率 上行幅度较大，而超长端由于此前交易较为拥挤，上行幅度最大。 鉴 ...

8月16日，国元证券发布旗下两只基金2025年中期报告，揭开公募基金2025年中报披露的大幕。8月18 日，该管理人旗下另一只基金也公布了2025年中期报告。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，从上述发布报告的基金来看，均属于固收类产品，其中有债券基金在成 本支出同比下降的背景下，利润总额出现同比大幅下降。 事实上，上述案例并非孤例。在8月16日披露的国元元赢30天持有债券2025年中报中，也出现上半年总 营业支出同比降低，但实际利润总额却大幅缩减的情形。数据显示，该基金利润总额从去年上半年的 894.89万元，降至今年上半年的265.30万元。 当然，上半年的股债跷跷板效应明显也是事实。随着市场风险偏好提升，越来越多债券基金被大额赎 回，原因还是投资收益欠佳。在前述国元证券披露中报的债基当中，基金经理柯贤发就在报告中指出， 上半年的基本面价格较去年整体下行但价格波动放大。展望后市，短期或仍将维持区间震荡状态，建议 积极把握事件冲击带来的债市机会。 个人投资者占比高 对于固收类基金来说，持有人往往基于稳健的收益特征而进行避险。从今年以来的业绩表现看，A股市 场估值修复行情不断上演，也使得越来越多固收类基金被持有人赎 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Hua'an Securities' View**: Amid the market style shift, there are still short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market. Although the bond market has faced a style shift due to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets, investors can still find long - trading opportunities such as taking advantage of the steeper curve and wider spreads, paying attention to the increased willingness of allocation investors to buy bonds when funds are loose, considering the possible short - covering of certain 30 - year Treasury bonds, and seizing the entry opportunity after the bond market correction. [2] - **Seller's View**: Only 30% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market, over 60% hold a neutral attitude, and the sentiment remains the same as last week. [3] - **Buyer's View**: The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral, and the sentiment index has declined. Over 80% of buyers hold a neutral view. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market - **Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds**: The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.21, up from last week, and the unweighted index is 0.26, unchanged from last week. 32% of institutions are bullish, 61% are neutral, and 6% are bearish. [11] - **Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds**: The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, down 0.07 from last week, and the unweighted index is 0.06, down 0.097 from last week. 13% of institutions are bullish, 81% are neutral, and 6% are bearish. [12] - **Credit Bonds**: The market focuses on the "stock - bond seesaw" and "stable wealth - management scale". Due to the continuous rise of the equity market suppressing the bond market, it is recommended to shorten the duration. The wealth - management scale is stable, and the short - term liability pressure is controllable. [16] - **Convertible Bonds**: Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week. 77% of institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral. [19] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking - **Futures Trading**: As of August 15, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL Treasury bond futures contracts decreased compared to last Friday, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased. [24][25] - **Cash Bond Trading**: On August 15, the turnover rates of 30Y Treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds all increased compared to last week. [32] - **Basis Trading**: Except for the TS contract, the basis of other main contracts narrowed. The net basis of TS/T/TL main contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts generally increased. [44][45][47] - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of main contracts generally widened, and the inter - variety spreads showed mixed trends. [58][59]

◼ 7 月基本面数据陆续公布，为何债市显现出"脱敏"性质？ ◼ A：本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.691%上行 5.4bp 至 1.745%。 周度复盘：周一（8.11），早盘受周末公布的 7 月物价数据低于预期影 响，利率有所下行。随后股市和碳酸锂商品期货大涨，利率转为上行， 全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 2.65bp。周二（8.12），早盘受中美 正式延长 90 天的关税暂停期消息影响，利率出现上行，随后股市出现 短暂下行，股债跷跷板效应下利率小幅下行。临近尾盘财政部公布贴息 政策，意在刺激消费，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 1bp。周三 （8.13），上证指数突破去年 10 月 8 日高点，但受午后买断式逆回购询 价降息消息影响，债市仍然维持一定韧性。尾盘 7 月金融数据公布，其 中 7 月信贷新增值为-500 亿元，同比少增 3100 亿元，结构上仅有票据 融资提供冲量作用。虽然季初为传统的信贷小月，但公布的数据仍显著 低于预期，但债市对于该信息显示出"脱敏"的特点，利率并未大幅下 行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 0 ...

21世纪经济报道 (0) 南财 | 西北 t里财涌·评评"理" gym.sfccn.com 21世纪资管研究院研究员 唐曜华 实习生 姜博文 近期股市节节攀升突破3700点，债市则震荡加剧，呈现明显的股债晓凝板效应。 部分"固收+权益"类产品受益股市上涨近期收益表现亮服。理财通评评"理"第46期继续测评银行热销产品，本期测评光大银行APP 理财夜市多策略金选产品：阳光金增利乐享日开1号（30天最低持有）A。 理财夜市 阳光金增利乐享日开固定收 … | 代销光大理财 多元+,含5%以内股票 最低持有180可顾回 首发热销 1元起购 | 较低风险 业绩比较基准:银行活期存款利率(税后)*17%+中诚 信0-2年信用债投资级优选指数(净收益)*80%+中诚信防 御型100股票指数*3% 本产品为固定收益类理财产品,其中投资于"中诚信 … t 2001 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 近期股市债市冰火两重天，股债跷跷板效应明显，投资者对股市热情高涨，资管机构也较为看好政策支持较多的股市，部分资金 从债市撤出流向股市。8月16日召开的"2025资产管理年会"现场，一项面向与会资管行业人士的问卷调查结果 ...

曾经备受债市追捧的30年期国债期货，随着近期权益市场持续强势走高，热度呈现出持续下降趋势。 8月18日，30年期国债期货主力合约大跌超1%，创今年4月初以来新低。10年期国债期货、5年期国债期货、2年期 国债期货等均出现不同程度下跌。 对于当前的债市，业内认为，"反内卷"主线下的股市强势表现压制债市情绪，叠加机构赎回等行为，构成债市短 期风险点。不过，债市仍存在支撑因素，趋势性逆转的概率还不高。 30年期国债期货跌超1% 近期，股债"跷跷板"效应愈发明显。在基本面和资金面并无明显变化的情况下，债市近期出现接连调整走势，市 场关注焦点转向权益市场与商品市场。 8月18日，30年期、10年期、5年期、2年期国债期货均出现下跌。其中30年期国债期货的跌幅超过1%。截至收 盘，30年期国债期货主力合约跌1.33%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.29%，5年期国债期货主力合约跌0.21%，2年 期国债期货主力合约跌0.04%。 银行间主要利率债收益率快速上行。截至发稿，30年期国债活跃券的到期收益率上行4.35个基点，报2.0375%，重 返2%关口；10年期国债活跃券的到期收益率上行3个基点，报1.775%；5年期国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond index led the market, while the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined this period, with negative stage returns. Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [1]. - The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale [1]. - The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low, with concentrated issuance terms [1]. - In the secondary market, convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp [1]. - In the past two weeks, the cancellation of bond issuance amounted to 1.745 billion yuan, and the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on the VAT policy for the interest income of bonds such as treasury bonds [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Bond Index Market Conditions**: The convertible bond index led the market. The Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index had significant gains in the past two weeks, outperforming most pure - bond indexes. Affected by the bond market fluctuations and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined. The China Securities Financial Bond Index and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index had the largest declines, while the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond Index had positive stage returns due to their short durations [6]. - **Bond ETF Market Conditions**: Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [8]. - **Bond ETF Unit Net Value**: The unit net value performance of bond ETFs was differentiated. Convertible bond - related ETFs showed an upward - fluctuating trend in 2025, breaking through 13 yuan in the past two weeks. Sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs had a downward - fluctuating net value after listing, with all net values falling below 100 yuan as of August 15, 2025. The short - term financing ETFs had a stable and rising unit net value, exceeding 112.2 yuan as of August 15, 2025 [12]. - **Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Convertible bond - related ETFs/short - term financing ETFs had continuous net inflows of funds, and local government bond - related ETFs were actively traded. The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) increased by a total of 7.759 billion yuan in the past two weeks. The short - term financing ETF (511360.SH) had a subscription scale of 5.802 billion yuan in the past two weeks [25]. Credit Bond ETF Overview The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale. The annualized yields of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) were 26.57% and 19.25% respectively. Among pure - bond ETFs, Credit Bond ETF Dacheng (159395.SZ) had the highest annualized yield of 2.25%. Nine sci - tech innovation bond - related ETF products had negative annualized yields after listing in July [30]. Primary Market - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds**: The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, convertible bond - related indexes had the smallest issuance scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low. The issuance terms of bond index sample bonds were concentrated, with the weighted issuance term of China Securities Short - Term Financing sample bonds being 0.61 years and that of the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds being 9.18 years [33]. - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds Since This Year**: The issuance of sci - tech innovation bond - related indexes and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds accelerated in June and July. In early August, the issuance rates of most sample bonds increased, and the issuance terms of sci - tech innovation bond - related index sample bonds shortened [35]. Secondary Market - **Trading of Important Bond Index Component Bonds**: Convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The trading volumes of the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond, Shanghai 5 - year Local Government Bond, and 5 - year Local Government Bond were less than 200 million yuan, with poor liquidity [40]. - **Spreads of Important Credit Bond Indexes**: The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp. The yields of the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index all increased in the past two weeks [43]. Credit Events and Market News - **Deferred/Cancelled Bond Issuance**: The cancelled issuance amount in the past two weeks was 1.745 billion yuan. Due to large market interest - rate fluctuations in the past two weeks, 15 bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a planned issuance amount of 1.745 billion yuan [48]. - **Market News**: Since August 8, 2025, the VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (including those issued after August 8, 2025) has been restored. The interest income of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds issued before this date (including the part issued after August 8, 2025) will continue to be exempt from VAT until the bonds mature [50]. Investment Recommendations The sentiment in the bond market was weak. Although the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the fundamentals still favored the bond market. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a net withdrawal in the past two weeks, the capital market was slightly tight, and bond valuation yields increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [51].