Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the escalation and subsequent decline of the Iran situation, geopolitical risks have fluctuated more widely. The impact of the Venezuelan situation on oil prices has been gradually digested by the market, and the expectation of tight supply of asphalt raw materials has eased. However, the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully priced in, leading to high - level oscillations in asphalt. In terms of supply and demand, the off - season at the beginning of the year has arrived as expected, with both weekly supply and demand decreasing month - on - month. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - For trading strategies, the single - side trading of asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between BU4 - 6, and it is recommended to wait and see for options trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased cost fluctuations. The supply and demand of asphalt are in the off - season, with inventory at a low level and the spot price remaining firm. The futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level oscillation with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations; Arbitrage: focus on BU4 - 6 positive spread arbitrage; Options: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Cost and Supply**: The cost is strengthening, and the supply is at a low level. The price of asphalt in some regions has increased, and the overall market price has continued to rise. The increase in crude oil prices and the reduction in supply in some areas have led to price increases in North China, Shandong, and other regions [11]. - **Price Movement**: The price of asphalt in the market has continued to rise. The prices in Northeast, North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and Southwest (Sichuan and Chongqing) regions have increased by 5 - 40 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions have remained stable. The rise in crude oil and futures prices, as well as supply - demand factors in different regions, have supported the price increase [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Geopolitical instability has increased cost fluctuations. The Brent main contract is expected to fluctuate between 61 - 64 US dollars. As of January 9, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of asphalt in different regions has changed to varying degrees [14]. - **Production**: The overall production of asphalt has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in the Northwest region has increased significantly, while that in the Northeast region has decreased slightly. The production in other regions has shown different degrees of change [16][17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory has remained at a low level, with a slight increase in the overall inventory. The social inventory has increased steadily due to the storage of winter - reserve resources. Different regions have shown different inventory trends due to factors such as production, demand, and resource storage [19][20][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the asphalt main contract, Brent crude oil, and the prices of asphalt in different regions have shown certain fluctuations. The basis and profit margins of asphalt refineries and refined oil refineries have also changed [25]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The refinery operating rate has increased slightly, the refinery inventory rate has increased slightly, the social inventory rate has increased slightly, the refinery weekly output has increased, and the refinery shipment volume has also changed [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption and escalating geopolitical risks have caused platinum and palladium prices to continue to fluctuate. The short - term platinum price is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term outlook of being oscillatingly stronger. The short - term palladium price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the long - term price will oscillate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 615.1 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 0.48% [2]. - The recent floods in northern South Africa are expected to impact mine production, logistics, and supply stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions have also intensified. The nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, South Africa still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity. The long - term outlook is oscillatingly stronger [2][3]. Palladium - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 477.95 yuan/gram, with an increase of 0.64% [2]. - The market's previous expectation of a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10 did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's investigation report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support the price. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price. The long - term outlook is oscillating [2][4]. Commodity Index - On January 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was not detailed. The commodity index was 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index was 2316.27, down 0.28% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 19, 2026, was 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decline of - 0.36%, a 1 - month increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [52].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% marks the first rate hike in 30 years, but instead of strengthening the yen, it has led to a significant depreciation of the currency, contrary to typical expectations of interest rate hikes [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Hike and Market Reaction - The initial expectation was that the rate hike would stabilize the declining yen and help control high inflation, but the yen fell sharply against the dollar following the announcement [3][6]. - Within a month of the rate hike, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar dropped by over 3%, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [5]. Group 2: Factors Behind Yen Depreciation - The lack of clarity in the Bank of Japan's policy regarding future rate hikes has created uncertainty in the market, leading to a sell-off of the yen [11]. - The Japanese government's approach of increasing public spending through debt issuance has raised concerns about the sustainability of its debt, which exceeds 260% of GDP [13]. - The strength of the US dollar, supported by higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, has attracted global capital away from the yen [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to statements from the Japanese government regarding Taiwan, have increased market risk aversion, further pressuring the yen [17]. - A general loss of confidence in the Japanese economy, driven by unclear policies, fiscal mismanagement, and geopolitical issues, has led to a significant depreciation of the yen [19][26]. Group 3: Impact on Japanese Economy and Society - The depreciation of the yen has resulted in imported inflation, making essential goods more expensive for consumers, while government subsidies have not kept pace with rising costs [20][22]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises, which constitute 99% of Japanese businesses, are facing severe challenges due to increased import costs and thin profit margins, leading to a 15% year-on-year increase in bankruptcies [24]. Group 4: Future Outlook for the Yen - The yen's future remains bleak unless three critical issues are addressed: the persistent interest rate differential with the US, the unsustainable fiscal situation, and ongoing geopolitical risks [26][28]. - Without significant policy changes and improved economic management, the yen could continue to depreciate, potentially reaching alarming levels against the dollar [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

2026.01.20 本文字数：1996，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 受美国总统特朗普上周末威胁对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国八个欧洲盟国加征 关税影响，全球市场本周首个交易日迎来巨震。欧洲股市全线下挫，因假日休市，美股期指盘前跌逾 1%。 预测市场正将格陵兰岛相关风险纳入定价模型。在Polymarket预测市场上，交易员目前认为，与格陵兰 岛相关的部分关税在2月1日前生效的概率为39%；分国家来看，丹麦和挪威面临关税的概率分别为36% 和35%，德国则为25%。长期预测显示，美国在2026年取得格陵兰岛部分地区控制权的概率为25%，而 美国对格陵兰岛发动军事入侵的概率相对较低，仅为11%。 受马丁路德金纪念日影响，美国股市与债市周一休市，因此此次关税威胁的首轮市场影响率先在欧洲本 土显现。泛欧斯托克600指数收跌1.18%，德国DAX 30指数跌1.34%，法国CAC 40指数跌1.78%。 汽车和奢侈品板块受到重创，原因是投资者正在消化关税战最可能波及的行业影响。斯托克欧洲600汽 车及零部件指数在早盘交易中下跌2.2%，斯托克欧洲奢侈品10指数下跌2.9%。有报道称， ...

去年4月一幕是否会重演？ 受美国总统特朗普上周末威胁对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国八个欧洲盟国加征 关税影响，全球市场本周首个交易日迎来巨震。欧洲股市全线下挫，因假日休市，美股期指盘前跌逾 1%。 在地缘政治与经济前景动荡的背景下，投资者纷纷涌入避险资产，推动黄金与白银价格在时隔数日后再 度飙升至新高点。 关税威胁又来了 特朗普在社交媒体明确表示，若未能就全面收购格陵兰岛达成协议，自6月1日起，对上述所有国家的关 税税率将提升至25%。这些国家均为北约成员国，且在丹麦拒绝出售格陵兰岛一事上，一致选择支持丹 麦的立场。 预测市场正将格陵兰岛相关风险纳入定价模型。在Polymarket预测市场上，交易员目前认为，与格陵兰 岛相关的部分关税在2月1日前生效的概率为39%；分国家来看，丹麦和挪威面临关税的概率分别为36% 和35%，德国则为25%。长期预测显示，美国在2026年取得格陵兰岛部分地区控制权的概率为25%，而 美国对格陵兰岛发动军事入侵的概率相对较低，仅为11%。 受马丁路德金纪念日影响，美国股市与债市周一休市，因此此次关税威胁的首轮市场影响率先在欧洲本 土显现。泛欧斯托克600指数收跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant recovery of the Hong Kong IPO market in 2025, which raised over 285.8 billion HKD, reclaiming the top position globally [1] - The resurgence of the Hong Kong IPO market is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in investor focus towards China as a technology superpower, reduced geopolitical risks, and modernization of listing procedures for sectors like AI and life sciences [1][3] - In 2025, the global IPO landscape saw the Asia-Pacific region occupying seven out of the top ten IPOs, with half of the new listings on NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange being Asian companies [1][7] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the IPO market is expected to reach record levels in 2026, driven by a stable US economy, gradual easing of Federal Reserve policies, and a healthy competitive environment among companies [2][8] - The Hong Kong IPO market's strong performance in 2025 ended a three-year period of stagnation, with 203 companies completing IPOs and raising 44.1 billion USD, marking a nearly 50% increase from the previous year [3] - The average first-day return for Hong Kong IPOs was 37%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, while US IPOs had an average return of 15% [4]

全球合作正值关键时期 本届年会聚焦"对话的精神"主题。年会开幕前，世界经济论坛发布了《2026年全球风险报告》和《2026 年全球合作晴雨表》。两份年度报告均反映出，当前全球面临的困难和挑战在短期内快速积聚，国际局 势呈现出复杂动荡、变化迅速的特点。尽管跨国合作模式持续发生重要转向，但全球合作"依然展现出 韧性"。 就在本次年会前夕，美国总统特朗普1月17日突然威胁，要对反对其吞并格陵兰岛计划的盟国加征惩罚 性关税，此举令欧洲领导人震惊不已；本月初，美国对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，并抓走委内瑞拉 总统马杜罗，此举更是引发全球哗然。 要想知道当下全球经济温度几何？如何应对国际政经未来走向？怎样在国际金融市场中提前布局？本周 的达沃斯论坛不容错过。 当地时间本周一（1月19日）至周五（1月23日），一年一度的世界经济论坛年会将在瑞士达沃斯举行。 世界经济论坛年会是讨论全球经济趋势、促进合作发展的重要平台，素有"世界经济风向标"之称。本次 年会将有哪些重量级嘉宾出席？年会中又有哪些看点值得关注？ 出席年会的政治领袖规模 创下历史新高 世界经济论坛官网显示，出席年会的政治领袖规模创下历史新高，包括中国副总理何立峰、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's hegemonic policies are worsening international geopolitical tensions, which is favorable for gold performance. Tactical recommendations include overweighting A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while underweighting US Treasuries and oil [1][21]. Group 2 - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to further expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026. Reforms are expected to boost market risk appetite in China [2][22][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding the new Federal Reserve chairperson is increasing, leading to heightened market speculation regarding US monetary policy, suggesting an underweight in US Treasuries. The cooling labor market, declining energy prices, and slow wage growth are conducive to a decrease in endogenous inflation stickiness, providing more room for the Fed to adjust monetary policy. The resilience of the US economy suggests a cautious direction for Fed policy guidance, with US Treasury yields expected to decline moderately [2][22][9]. - In the context of geopolitical upheaval, gold exhibits strong resilience and safe-haven attributes, suggesting an overweight in gold. The rising uncertainty in global geopolitical situations and continued gold purchases by central banks support a stable long-term gold price. Despite speculative trading inflows temporarily increasing gold volatility, the price remains resilient amid the Trump administration's hegemonic policies and the further erosion of US international credibility [2][22][9]. Group 3 - Short-term speculation in oil may intensify, suggesting an underweight in oil. Investor expectations regarding oil supply and demand are relatively consistent, and OPEC+'s production adjustments are moderate. Geopolitical events in South America may increase the US's influence on global oil prices, while the Trump administration's policy direction favors low oil prices, indicating that oil prices may remain under pressure and face intense short-term speculation [3][23][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week, capital markets advanced amidst fluctuations with divergent trends. Geopolitical tensions overseas continued to drive up investors' risk - aversion, pushing gold to a new record high, while the US stock market was desensitized to geopolitical issues and more focused on corporate earnings. Global stock markets generally rose, commodity trends diverged, A - shares fluctuated and diverged, and the BDI index dropped significantly. The US dollar regained strength, and the RMB remained stable and strong [5][10]. - The domestic bond market rebounded, stock indices fluctuated with mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergent patterns. The growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 6 falling. Precious metals remained strong, non - ferrous metals continued to rise, energy rebounded, and grains had a small increase, while other sectors declined, with agricultural products, black commodities, and chemicals leading the decline [5][16]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% with a probability of 95.4% in January, and there is still an expected 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][67]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Capital markets showed divergent trends. Overseas, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran) and the US's intention towards Greenland increased investors' risk - aversion, driving up gold prices. The US stock market focused on corporate earnings, with the VIX index rebounding and most risk assets rising. Global stocks generally rose, commodities diverged, A - shares fluctuated, and the BDI index dropped. The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB was stable. Commodity sectors also showed divergence, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals performing well, while black commodities and agricultural products were weak [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded, stock indices had mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergence. Growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 sub - indices rising and 6 falling [5][16]. Large - scale Assets - Overseas, geopolitical tensions led to a rise in gold prices due to increased risk - aversion. The US stock market was less affected by geopolitics and more focused on corporate earnings. Global stocks generally rose, commodities diverged, A - shares fluctuated, and the BDI index dropped. The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB was stable. Commodity sectors had divergent trends, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals strong, and black commodities and agricultural products weak [5][10]. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rebounded, stock indices had mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergence. Growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 sub - indices rising and 6 falling. Precious metals remained strong, non - ferrous metals continued to rise, energy rebounded, and grains had a small increase, while other sectors declined, with agricultural products, black commodities, and chemicals leading the decline [16]. Fund Flows - Last week, the commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds. The precious metals sector had the most obvious inflow, while the soft commodities sector had the most significant outflow [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures declined. The top - rising commodity futures were Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and styrene. The top - falling ones were the shipping index, caustic soda, and palladium [22]. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index stopped falling and rebounded. The volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and the Nanhua Commodity Index both increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with energy and grains having significant volatility reduction, and non - ferrous metals and soft commodities having notable volatility increases [25]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities had mixed results. The BDI index dropped significantly, the CRB index had a small decline, soybeans rebounded, corn rose sharply, copper fell, oil rose, and gold and silver both increased, with the gold - silver ratio reaching a new low [27][28]. - Domestically, the asphalt production rate rebounded from a low level, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates diverged, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated upwards [42]. Macroeconomic Logic - Stock indices fluctuated, corrected, and showed divergence, with little change in valuation. The risk premium ERP was at a one - year low. Growth stocks outperformed value - style stocks [30][31]. - Commodity price indices rose and then fell, and inflation expectations rebounded strongly [34]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between stocks and commodities and the price difference between domestic and international commodities were analyzed. Last week, stocks fluctuated and declined, commodities showed divergence, and the commodity - stock return difference generally increased. The Nanhua Commodity Index and the CRB Commodity Index both fell from high levels, with domestic - priced commodities weakening and international - priced commodities performing strongly, and the price difference between domestic and international commodities changed little [37][40]. - US Treasury yields rebounded across the board, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread rebounded from a low level, real interest rates were under pressure, and gold prices rose to a new high [50]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was strong, the Citi Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasuries widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [59]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in January remains unchanged at 95.4%, and the probability of a 25bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remains at 4.6%. The market expects 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][67]. China's 2025 Import and Export Data - In December 2025, China's exports were $357.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% (previous value 5.9%), and imports were $243.6 billion, with a growth rate of 5.7% (previous value 1.9%). The trade surplus was $114.14 billion (previous value $111.68 billion). For the whole year of 2025, exports grew by 5.5% (previous value 5.8%), imports had a growth rate of 0% (previous value 1%), and the trade surplus was $1.19 trillion (previous value $992.6 billion). Exports to ASEAN grew by 13.4%, to Europe by 8.4%, and to Japan by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to the US dropped significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 20% [68]. China's 2025 Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 933.47 billion yuan (up 3.9%), the secondary industry was 4,996.53 billion yuan (up 4.5%), and the tertiary industry was 8,088.79 billion yuan (up 5.4%). Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The fourth - quarter GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [75]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 19): China's 2025 full - year GDP growth rate, 2025 full - year GDP total, December social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, December industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, Eurozone December CPI annual rate final value, Canada December CPI monthly rate, US stock market closed for one day [82]. - Tuesday (January 20): China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20, Germany's December PPI monthly rate, UK's December unemployment rate, Eurozone's November seasonally - adjusted current account, Eurozone's January ZEW economic sentiment index, EU Commission President von der Leyen's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting [82]. - Wednesday (January 21): UK's December CPI monthly rate, UK's December retail price index monthly rate, US's November building permit total, US's December pending home sales index monthly rate, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, US President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting [82]. - Thursday (January 22): US's API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16, Australia's December seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate, US's initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17, US's November core PCE price index annual rate, US's November personal spending monthly rate, US's November core PCE price index monthly rate, US's EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 16, European Central Bank's December monetary policy meeting minutes, Turkish Central Bank's interest rate decision [82]. - Friday (January 23): US's EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16, Japan's December core CPI annual rate, UK's December seasonally - adjusted retail sales monthly rate, Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's November retail sales monthly rate, US's January University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, US's January one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and economic outlook report, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's monetary policy press conference [82].