1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has been re - boosted by the potential Sino - US talks at the end - of - month APEC Summit and Trump's softening signals, but the market trading volume has not increased, and the short - term trend is mainly high - level oscillations [3] - There are many uncertainties in the short - term market, including the implementation of the fund redemption fee new rules, the outcome of key meetings and Sino - US trade negotiations, which have a significant impact on short - term risk appetite [3] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, some are affected by geopolitical factors, and some are influenced by cost and inventory factors [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: Low - valuation sectors are rotating, and the stock index is oscillating with shrinking volume. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [3] - **Treasury Bond**: The trend of treasury bond futures is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies and pay appropriate attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the recovery of IRR [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has twice bottomed out and rebounded under the game between long and short positions, with a potential support price of $4000. Silver still has downward pressure, with a support level around $47 [3] Black - **Steel**: There is an oversupply of plates, and it is necessary to reduce production and destock. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies, conduct long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil operations, and conduct reverse arbitrage for monthly spreads [3] - **Iron Ore**: Supply - side disturbances have weakened, arrivals have declined, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has slightly decreased. Iron ore has stopped falling and stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price of local coal is running strongly, downstream replenishment demand has recovered, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3] - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the festival, and the mainstream coking enterprises proposed a second - round increase. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: Social inventories have increased during the peak season, and the copper price is oscillating. The main support level is between 84,000 - 85,000 [3] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The social inventory of aluminum is gradually decreasing, and the price is oscillating around 21,000. The social inventory of aluminum alloy has shown an inflection point, and the price is oscillating strongly following the aluminum price [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc prices have strengthened slightly due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze. Tin prices are oscillating at a high level supported by strong fundamentals. Nickel prices are oscillating, and stainless steel prices are oscillating in a narrow range [3] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Supported by positive EIA inventory data and geopolitical uncertainties, the short - term oil price still has upward momentum, but the medium - and long - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [3] - **Other Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA are boosted by short - term oil price increases; short - fiber is oscillating strongly in the short term; ethanol is under pressure in the short term; and some products are recommended for specific arbitrage strategies [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The export expectation of US soybeans has improved, and attention should be paid to the domestic arrival rhythm. The palm oil price has fallen due to increased production [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig - breeding end has a strong enthusiasm for slaughter, and the intensity of secondary fattening may slow down. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [3] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, and apples have different price trends and corresponding support or pressure levels [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The glass price is continuing to weaken, and the spot trading is still light. It is recommended to take a bearish attitude [3] - **Rubber**: The positive sentiment for rubber remains strong, and the rubber price continues to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **New Energy - Related Commodities**: The price of industrial silicon is oscillating, and the price of polysilicon is oscillating downward. The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating strongly, and the main price range is between 76,000 - 80,000 [3]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货10月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.490 | 115.710 | 115.610 | 115.600 | 0.120 | 0.10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - Crude oil prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding after continuous decline, driving up the energy sector including PG. The fundamentals of the LPG market remain largely unchanged, with a loose supply - demand pattern. Market participants are awaiting the results of China - US trade negotiations. Domestic spot prices showed mixed trends yesterday, with the mainstream transaction price of civil gas in East China slightly decreasing and that of ether - after carbon four remaining stable. The market atmosphere is relatively stable, with downstream buyers purchasing as needed. Given the current window period of pending major macro - events and numerous news - related disturbances, caution is advised [1] Market Analysis - On October 22, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4230 - 4270; Northeast market, 3830 - 4110; North China market, 4100 - 4270; East China market, 4150 - 4250; Yangtze River region market, 4370 - 4630; Northwest market, 4050 - 4150; South China market, 4250 - 4480 [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 543 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton, and butane was 548 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4242 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton, and butane was 4281 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 537 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton, and butane was 542 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4195 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton, and butane was 4234 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate in the range of 2880 - 2940. Influenced by the U.S. soybean trend, high October imports, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4000 - 4100. Affected by Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, high imports, and domestic production increase expectations, it will be subject to short - term interactive impacts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain at a relatively high level, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have declined from their highs. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain U.S. soybean - growing area weather [14]. - **Negative Factors**: High total domestic soybean imports in October and the expected U.S. soybean harvest and bumper crop [14]. - **Main Logic**: Market focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Positive Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean price floor, and expected increased domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Negative Factors**: Bumper Brazilian soybean crops and increased Chinese purchases, as well as expected domestic soybean production increases, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: Market focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 118.92 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of 43, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 719.91 tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 14 - 22, soybean and meal futures and spot prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated between 2885 - 2917, and the spot price between 2860 - 2900 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 13 - 22, soybean and meal warehouse receipts changed. For instance, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 41285 to 42582 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balances, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Include data on the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the planting area, yield, output, and other data of U.S. soybeans in the past six months [43]. - **Soybean Import and Related Market Conditions**: U.S. soybean weekly export inspections have rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year. Domestic soybean imports in October have decreased from their highs but increased year - on - year. Oil - mill soybean inventories remain high, and soybean meal inventories have decreased from their highs [44][46][47]. - **Pig Market Conditions**: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly declining month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen again, and piglet prices remain weak. Domestic large - pig ratios have increased, and secondary fattening costs have risen slightly. Pig - farming profits have recently worsened [55][57][59][61].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间22日，美国 财政部宣布将对俄罗斯两家大型石油公司实施制裁，包括俄罗 斯石油公司和卢克石油公司；欧盟轮值主席国丹麦宣布，欧盟 各成员国已批准对俄罗斯实施第19轮制裁，制裁措施包括禁止 进口俄罗斯液化天然气等；美国总统特朗普表示，他认为与俄 罗斯总统普京会面"不合适"，所以取消了和普京在布达佩斯 的会面；美国能源信息署数据显示，截止10月17日当周，包括 战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.31388亿桶，比前一周下降 14.2万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.22824亿桶，比前一周下降 96.1万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.16679亿桶，比前一周下降 214.6万桶；截止10月17日当周，美国原油日均产量1362.9万 桶，比前周日均产量减少7000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加 12.9万桶。评：供需仍压制油价。消息面上，特普会取消，美 国加大对俄制裁推动原油大涨，此外，消息上，传递中美贸易 谈判偏乐观，也支撑短期油价。短期低位偏多思路。 【短评-螺纹钢】10月22日，国内钢材市场涨跌互现，唐山 迁安松汀普方坯出厂含税涨10报2940元/吨。2家钢厂 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations remains, but the recent meeting between the two sides has marginally improved the sentiment. In the copper industry, raw material supply is tight, and future supply expectations are tightening due to overseas copper mine production cuts, so copper prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations. For aluminum, the short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner as the domestic inventory level is low and overseas supply is disrupted. Lead is expected to be strong in the short term due to continuous destocking of lead ingot social and factory inventories. Zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential because of high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to a tight supply - demand balance and improving seasonal demand. Nickel prices may be under short - term pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are approaching the previous pressure level, and attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the cost support and supply - side reduction expectations coexist. Stainless steel market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand. Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upside due to high warehouse receipts and cost - side support [3][5][8][10][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.59% to $10,658/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 37,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may strengthen after oscillation. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 84,800 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,550 - $10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. The LME aluminum closed up 0.88% at $2,405/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,105 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 2.6 to 517,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 67,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,960 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,780 - $2,840/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.09% to 17,172 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose to $1,992.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased slightly to 32,800 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term as the supply and demand situation is favorable with continuous destocking [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,008 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose to $3,003/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 165,300 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential due to high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.29% to 281,680 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from new energy vehicles and AI servers is strong, but traditional sectors are weak. The short - term consumption has improved marginally [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices continued to oscillate at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel prices may be under pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index dropped 0.17%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased, and the LC2601 contract rose 1.50% [18]. - **Strategy**: The price is approaching the previous pressure level. Attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,839 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price dropped, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.36% to 12,710 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the 300 - series inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2512 rose 0.56% to 20,515 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was flat, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side support has strengthened, but the price upside is limited due to high warehouse receipts [28].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On October 22, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed down 0.07% at 3,913.76; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12,996.61; the ChiNext Index dropped 0.79% to 3,059.32. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.6679 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,592.57, down 15.30 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 22, the coke weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1,735.0, up 17.7. The coking coal weighted index rebounded weakly, closing at 1,224.3 yuan, up 17.7. The port coke spot market price declined, with the Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Many mainstream coke enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places initiated a second price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, but steel mills haven't responded. Coke enterprises' production is stable, with low inventory. The increase in coking coal price has squeezed coke enterprises' profits. Some steel mills have poor arrivals due to production control, but the high daily pig iron output still supports coke demand [1]. - In the coking coal market, the price of lean clean coal in Changzhi increased by 60 yuan to 1,250 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 1,100 yuan/ton. Due to over - production checks and safety inspections, the supply of coking coal is tightening, but downstream coke enterprises are cautious about purchasing high - priced resources, and the transaction price of some coal types has declined [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season, the US sugar futures fell on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined on Wednesday and slightly at night due to factors such as the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices. Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the next season is estimated to be 43.2 million tons, higher than the current season's 41.42 million tons. Indonesia aims to produce 3 million tons of white sugar in 2026, up from 2.8 million tons this year [2]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase and technical factors, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday, and continued to rise slightly at night supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons (4.07%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.70% to 69,600 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51% to 367,900 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [3]. Palm Oil - On October 22, after continuous small - scale fluctuations, the willingness of long - position holders to support the price weakened, and the palm oil futures deviated from the consolidation range and fell rapidly. The main contract P2601 closed with a negative line, at 9,164, down 1.40% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77%, with different increases in different regions [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 22, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA stopped updating key data. The market estimated that the US soybean harvest rate was 73% as of last Sunday, and the export sales volume as of October 16 was expected to be 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is predicted to reach 178.5 million tons. Domestically, the M2601 contract closed at 2,885 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, the oil mills' operating rate is high, but downstream replenishment is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term soybean meal price will fluctuate, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On October 22, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2601 contract closed at 12,220 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The increasing spread between standard and fat pigs has attracted second - fattening, which supports the short - term price. However, the supply pressure is high, and the terminal consumption is weak after the holidays. The short - term market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and capacity control policies [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be tight due to production disturbances at home and abroad, and refinery maintenance capacity increased in October. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the inventory shows a pattern of accumulation in China and reduction overseas. With uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the market has both long and short factors. Technically, pay attention to the support at 84,000 yuan/ton and the resistance at 86,000 yuan/ton [7]. Iron Ore - On October 22, the iron ore 2601 contract closed up 0.65% at 774 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume rebounded, and the domestic arrival volume declined from the high level. The pig iron output is still high but may decline as steel mills' profits shrink and the peak season ends. The short - term iron ore price will fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - On October 22, the asphalt 2601 contract rose 2.95% to 3,249 yuan. The asphalt capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded. However, due to cold air, the terminal project construction slowed down, and the demand peak season is approaching the end. The short - term asphalt price will fluctuate [7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,540 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 14 lots. The price of machine - picked cotton was stable with a slight increase, and the opening rates of downstream spinning mills were stable [8]. Logs - On October 22, the 2511 log futures opened at 802, with a low of 786, a high of 803, and closed at 795, with an increase of 68 lots in positions. The price tested the previous low. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The market is gradually reducing inventory, and attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes and macro - market sentiment [8]. Steel - On October 22, the rb2601 contract closed at 3,068 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 at 3,247 yuan/ton. Independent electric arc furnace steel mills are in loss, and the supply is expected to shrink. Downstream demand is average, with better sales of low - priced resources. The firm coking coal market supports the steel price. The steel market supply and demand are balanced, and the price will continue to fluctuate [9]. Alumina - On October 22, the ao2601 contract closed at 2,829 yuan/ton. The domestic bauxite market has regional differences, but the price is stable due to balanced supply and demand. The supply surplus pressure is increasing due to high domestic production and open import window. Some high - cost enterprises are close to the break - even point, and large - scale production cuts may start in November. The electrolytic aluminum plants have high inventory and low procurement enthusiasm [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 22, the al2512 contract closed at 21,045 yuan/ton. The spot market was average. Although the inventory decreased and holders wanted to support the price, the high and fluctuating Shanghai aluminum price suppressed downstream consumption. Enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the spot premium declined. The weighted average full cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum in October 2025 is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the falling alumina price, but the decline is limited due to the increase in electricity and auxiliary material costs [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. soybean futures market is experiencing a long-awaited upward trend, driven by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and unexpectedly strong export data, pushing prices to a one-month high [1][3]. - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures saw a significant rebound, with the benchmark contract closing up 1.2%, marking the highest level in over a month, and trading volume for November contracts increased to 163,000 lots, indicating heightened market participation [1][3]. - President Trump's recent statements regarding trade negotiations have positively impacted the soybean market, expressing confidence in reaching an agreement with China and prioritizing the restoration of U.S. soybean purchases [3]. Group 2 - Strong fundamental data supports the price increase, with the USDA's weekly export inspection report showing soybean export inspections reaching levels far exceeding market expectations as of the week ending October 16 [5]. - Despite U.S. soybean export volumes being significantly lower than the previous year, analysts note that performance has been stronger than anticipated, attributed to increased demand from other regions [6]. - Seasonal pressure is easing as the U.S. soybean harvest nears completion, providing a rebound opportunity for the market, although long-term pressure from expanding South American supply remains a concern [8]. Group 3 - The strong performance of soybean crushing demand provides additional support for the soybean market, with December soybean meal futures also benefiting from rising South American meal premiums, opening short-term opportunities for U.S. meal exports [12]. - Domestic crushing demand in the U.S. has remained robust, with the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reporting higher-than-expected crushing volumes, reflecting strong domestic demand for soybeans [14]. - The future direction of U.S. soybean prices will largely depend on whether optimistic sentiments from trade negotiations translate into actual orders from China, while record production expectations from Brazil pose a looming threat to market prices [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high spot quotes and optimistic expectations for future Sino-US negotiations, the EC futures market maintains high-level volatility. The EC2512 contract closed at 1788.3 points on October 22, up 1.07% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European Line index exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward correction of the EC2510 contract's discount [6]. - The spread between mainstream shipping companies in spot freight rates has widened again. Considering the good long - term cargo receiving situation of shipping companies, the fundamentals are expected to gradually improve. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise in November. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, which is expected to improve in November - December. The supply side has changes in shipping capacity arrangements, and the Sino - US ship sanctions and the Middle East geopolitical situation bring risks and uncertainties [7]. - The recommended trading strategies are to continue holding long positions in EC2512 and to take profits on the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage at high levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 22, different EC futures contracts showed various price changes. For example, EC2512 rose 1.07% to 1788.3 points, and EC2606 fell 0.57% to 1353.3 points. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to different degrees [5]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI European Line reported 1145 USD/TEU on October 17, up 7.2% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported 1140.38 points, up 10.5% month - on - month. Different shipping routes' freight rates showed various changes, with some rising significantly and some falling slightly [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: The spread between shipping companies in spot freight rates widened. Some shipping companies had lower SPOT prices due to cargo - booking pressure. In November, shipping companies' price increases are expected to continue. The demand side's cargo volume is in a seasonal decline but is expected to improve later. The supply side has shipping capacity adjustments, and the Sino - US ship sanctions and the Middle East geopolitical situation bring risks [7]. Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to hold long positions in EC2512, and pay attention to the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict, the second - stage negotiation, and the shipping companies' resumption expectations [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profits on the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage at high levels [9]. Industry News - Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [10]. - On October 20, 2025, Trump made a series of statements on Sino - US trade during a meeting with the Australian Prime Minister, including tariff threats and trade agreements [10]. - On October 22, US Vice - President Vance expressed optimism about the Gaza cease - fire agreement and emphasized the need for continuous monitoring. US Secretary of State Rubio plans to visit Israel to promote the implementation of the agreement [11]. - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to assist in promoting the second stage of the Gaza cease - fire plan [11].