Economic Overview - In April, China's economy continued to show a recovery trend, with retail sales of consumer goods and the service production index growing by 4.7% and 5.9% respectively, both up by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3][4] - Exports increased by 7.5%, while industrial added value maintained a stable growth rate of 6.4% [3][4] - The data indicates that despite external pressures and internal challenges, China's economy demonstrates significant resilience [1][3] Industrial Growth - The industrial production index for April showed a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, with 36 out of 41 major industries experiencing growth, indicating a broad-based recovery [6][24] - Notably, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively, with new industries becoming key growth drivers [6][7] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles saw year-on-year increases exceeding 20% [6][24] Service Sector Performance - The national service production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year in April, reflecting a stable recovery and expansion in the service sector [8][25] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [10][25] - The service sector's internal structure is continuously optimizing, with modern and productive service industries maintaining strong growth [10][25] Consumer Spending - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [12][11] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to the effectiveness of government policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving consumer confidence [12][11] - Notable growth was observed in travel, communication, and other service-related consumption categories, driven by holiday travel demand [12][11] Investment Trends - From January to April, fixed asset investment grew by 4.0%, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [14][13] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.8%, while manufacturing investment maintained a stable growth rate of 8.8% [14][15] - The "two heavy" and "two new" policies have positively influenced investment stability, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors [14][15] Export Dynamics - Despite rising tariffs on exports to the U.S., China's exports remained robust, with a total export value of 22,645 billion yuan in April, reflecting a growth of 9.3% [17][16] - The total import value was 15,745 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8%, indicating a potential need for further activation of domestic demand [17][16] - The share of private enterprises in total imports and exports increased to 56.9%, highlighting an improvement in trade structure [17][16] Employment Market - The average urban unemployment rate from January to April was 5.2%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a stable employment situation [19][18] - The employment market is expected to continue improving, supported by economic fundamentals and effective employment policies [19][18] - However, structural challenges and external pressures remain, necessitating attention to skill development and training [19][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Macro and Financial - Treasury Bonds: Bullish (Slightly) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On May 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics released April's major macro - economic data. Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable, with fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12th, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. The 90 - day window period brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain. On Monday, treasury bond futures rose overall, and the news that state - owned banks will cut deposit rates is favorable for the bulls. Treasury bond futures may be bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2506 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 43 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 92 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.54% (1.63% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average was 1.60% (1.64% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 1.04 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year fell 0.98 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 1.00 BP to 1.69%, and the 30 - year fell 1.70 BP to 1.86% [1] - **Housing Market**: In April, the month - on - month price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% (from a 0.2% increase last month). Among them, Shanghai rose 0.1%, Guangzhou remained flat, and Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Second - and third - tier cities' second - hand residential property prices decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to last month [1] - **Investment Data**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation: 4.26%, 4.2% from January to March). General infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% (market expectation: 10.0%, 11.5% from January to March, 9.19% in 2024). Narrow infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% (5.8% from January to March, 4.4% in 2024). Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% (market expectation: 9.1%, 9.1% from January to March, 9.2% in 2024). Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% (9.9% from January to March, 10.6% in 2024) [1] - **Sales Data**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year (3.0% from January to March), and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% (2.1% from January to March) [2] - **Industrial Data**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.2%, 6.5% in the first quarter, 5.8% in 2024). Manufacturing added value increased by 6.6% (7.1% in the first quarter, 6.1% in 2024). High - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% (slightly lower than 10.7% in March, higher than 8.9% in 2024) [2] - **Consumption and Employment Data**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, 5.9% in March). The national service production index increased by 6.0% (6.3% in March). The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [2] - **Interest Rate Adjustment**: It is reported that many state - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks will lower the listed RMB deposit interest rates again starting from May 20th [2] 3.3 Market Logic - Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable. Fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the 90 - day window period brought short - term relief, but long - term uncertainties remain. The release of April's macro - economic data on Monday led to an overall rise in treasury bond futures, and the news of the deposit rate cut is favorable for the bulls, making treasury bond futures likely to be bullish in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimism surrounding China's technology sector, particularly in AI, and highlights the importance of domestic demand, self-sufficiency, and the response to external pressures such as tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, especially AI, is seen as a key driver for investment, with significant growth potential in domestic computing infrastructure and applications [4][10]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a significant rise, with domestic market share increasing from 38% in 2015 to an expected 61% in 2024, indicating strong growth in both domestic and export markets [14]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to benefit from increasing personal medical expenditures and supportive policies, presenting clear investment opportunities [11][12]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst external uncertainties, with a focus on the government's proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand and manage economic transitions [6][17]. - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. are acknowledged, but the article suggests that the impact on China's economic structure is manageable, with a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology [16][17]. - The government's focus on reducing savings rates and expanding domestic consumption is expected to lead to supportive policies for new consumer trends, such as the silver economy and domestic brands [6][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with expectations of rapid advancements and applications in various industries, including automotive and healthcare [4][10][19]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing a transformation with a shift towards "anti-involution" strategies, aiming for healthier competition and sustainable growth [15]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in construction and materials, is showing signs of stabilization after previous downturns, presenting potential investment opportunities [18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the light industry, particularly in personal care and jewelry sectors, with several companies exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The light industry shows a steady performance, with essential consumer goods outperforming overall trends. Companies like Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Chaohongji have reported better-than-expected results in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. - The two-wheeler and motorcycle sectors are experiencing unexpected growth driven by new national standards and government subsidies, with companies like Ninebot and Chunfeng Power also exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][12]. - Export demand remains strong, with product structure improvements and favorable exchange rates supporting profitability for companies like Jiangxin Home and Jiayi Co. in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The home furnishing sector is benefiting from government subsidies, leading to a reduction in revenue decline, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slightly better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The packaging industry maintains a stable structure, with leading companies increasing their market share, while metal packaging profitability is slightly under pressure [3][5][20]. - The paper industry has seen a continued decline in profitability in H2 2024, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper benefiting from integrated supply chain advantages [3][5][20]. Summary by Sections Light Industry - Revenue recovery is evident in Q1 2025, with essential consumer goods showing stronger growth compared to optional and mass consumer goods. The revenue growth rates for essential consumer goods were 20.4% in Q1 2025, while mass consumer goods showed a decline of 0.9% [6][7][10]. - Profitability remains weaker than revenue growth, with net profits for essential consumer goods declining by 49.8% in Q3 2024, but showing a slight recovery of 1.5% in Q1 2025 [7][11]. Two-Wheeler & Motorcycle - The domestic two-wheeler market is benefiting from a transition to new national standards, with revenue growth rates of 50.9% in Q1 2025. Profit margins are improving due to product upgrades and reduced price competition [12][13][14]. - Export performance for motorcycles is also strong, with revenue growth of 32.2% in Q1 2025, driven by seasonal demand and product upgrades [14][19]. Exports - Export demand continues to be robust, with key categories like fitness equipment and insulated cups showing double-digit growth. Companies like Jiayi Co. and Hars have reported significant revenue increases of 67% and 22% respectively in Q1 2025 [20][23]. - The exchange rate has positively impacted export performance, with the USD/CNY exchange rate showing a slight depreciation, benefiting exporters [20][23]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a narrowing of revenue decline due to government subsidies, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slight improvements in Q1 2025 [20][23]. Packaging - The packaging industry remains stable, with leading companies increasing their market share. However, profitability in metal packaging is facing slight pressure due to competitive pricing [20][23]. Paper Industry - The paper industry has faced declining profitability, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper reporting improved performance due to supply chain advantages [20][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The domestic market sentiment continues to warm up, and the risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations, leading to a rebound of the US dollar index from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, indicating weakening domestic demand, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has weakened the impact of US trade policy on the domestic economy and boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The RMB exchange rate and domestic stock market continue to strengthen. For assets, the stock index rebounds with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond corrects with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, the black metals fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as insurance, port shipping, and securities, the domestic stock market continues to rise. Fundamentally, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the tariff reduction policy between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to decline overnight. The main contract of COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200/ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell more than 2% to 748 yuan/gram. Weaker - than - expected US inflation data supported the US dollar. The release of the China - US Geneva Joint Statement eased trade tensions, and the global risk - aversion sentiment significantly cooled down. The US dollar stabilized and rebounded, and the continuous strength of the US stock market suppressed the rise of gold. Gold is under short - term pressure, but the weakening of the US dollar's credit margin provides structural support for the gold price, and the value of gold allocation remains. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, and the market trading volume was at a low level. The substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff issue and the lower - than - expected US CPI data in April increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the construction steel inventory of Steel Valley Network continued to decline by 270,000 tons, and the apparent consumption increased slightly. It is currently the off - season for steel demand, and the demand decline trend may continue. In terms of supply, steel mills' profits are considerable, and the daily output of hot metal is at a high level this year, but the output of finished products has decreased recently. In the off - season, the subsequent demand may not be sufficient to support the current high output. It is advisable to view the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation idea [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the hot - metal output is at a high level in the short term, but it is likely to decline in the future, and there are significant differences in the market regarding the decline path. In terms of supply, the iron - ore shipment volume decreased by 215,000 tons month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 951,000 tons month - on - month. Considering that the second quarter is the traditional peak season for iron - ore shipments, the shipment and arrival volumes will increase later. The port inventory increased by 1.41 million tons on Monday compared with last Friday. The iron - ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and the spot price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The output of construction steel and hot - rolled coils of Steel Valley Network continued to decline, and the demand for ferroalloys remained weak. The supply of silicon iron also continued to decline. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within an interval [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows that the US crude - oil inventory increased by 3.45 million barrels last week, the largest increase since March. Tensions over the Iranian nuclear issue may increase oil - price volatility. The oil price may be in a correction phase recently, and the 50 - day moving average will form resistance at around $63.9 [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price remains stable at a high level following the oil price, and the overall supply is at a low level. The downstream demand has been boosted to some extent recently, and the inventory transfer from factories to society is smooth, with signs of inventory reduction in social warehouses. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: After the increase of the crude - oil center, the PX outer - market price remains at around $840. With more PX maintenance and the increase of PTA price, PX rises in resonance with the polyester chain. The PX supply will be tighter later, and it will remain strongly oscillating in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The basis first rose and then fell. The downstream leading manufacturers' statement of joint production cuts may hit the PTA demand. The PTA price has risen too fast recently, and the downstream production and sales have diverged. It is likely to have a phased correction, and then wait for the stabilization of the crude - oil price and the improvement of the terminal situation [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has risen significantly due to the early maintenance of large plants, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. It may start the de - stocking channel, but it may have a phased correction in the short term due to downstream production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The polyester price remains oscillating at a high level following the crude - oil price, and the short - fiber price has rebounded significantly. The short - fiber will continue to be strong in the short term [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol in Jiangsu Taicang continues to be strong. The overall basis weakens, and the supply pressure is prominent. The price may be repaired in the short term but has downward space in the medium and long term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price oscillates upward. The production has reached a historical high, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamental situation has weakened marginally. The LP spread is expected to strengthen in the short term [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price rises. The overall maintenance of PE devices is expected to exceed expectations, and the inventory has decreased. The PE price is expected to be repaired in the short term [12]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has been raised. The domestic supply is high, and the export policy has boosted the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term, but the upward driving force of the market is insufficient without more favorable policies [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In April, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The copper - ore processing fee has declined recently, and the decline rate has slowed down. It is about to enter the off - season for demand, and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs will boost the demand. The copper price oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose significantly today, driven by the overall commodity - rising atmosphere. After the emotional digestion, it is advisable to try short - selling [15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season, with weak marginal demand. The tin price oscillates in the short term, and the news of the resumption of production in Wa State and the risk of weakening demand pressure the price [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's economy, highlighting the challenges in stimulating domestic demand and the impact of external factors such as tariffs and inflation in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - China's export decline and the unchanged inflation expectations in the U.S. indicate a persistent economic challenge for both countries [1] - Recent policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, such as interest rate cuts, have been implemented, but their effectiveness is yet to be seen [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand Issues - The traditional methods of boosting domestic demand have proven ineffective, suggesting a need for new strategies [2] - The low proportion of disposable income relative to GDP raises concerns about consumer spending, as previous consumption was driven by real estate price bubbles [4] - The lack of long-term security and insufficient social welfare contribute to a culture of forced savings among the population, limiting consumption [13] Group 3: Structural Economic Challenges - The debate over whether to rely on market mechanisms or planned economy approaches for resource allocation is crucial, as current planning efforts may lead to inefficiencies [8] - The suggestion to cut ineffective infrastructure projects and redirect funds to social security systems raises concerns about potential short-term economic slowdown and increased unemployment [12] Group 4: Housing Market and Consumption - Stimulating the housing market is viewed as a significant way to boost consumption, as home purchases represent a major expenditure for consumers [9] - The financial burden of housing loans on new homeowners indicates a trend of high leverage in consumer spending [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The need to cultivate a large middle class with high-income jobs is emphasized as essential for sustaining domestic demand [18] - The article questions whether the perceived stagnation in domestic demand is due to a misinterpretation of what constitutes consumption, particularly in light of significant government investment in infrastructure and housing [19]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 宏观经济数据前瞻 2025 年 4 月宏观经济指标预期一览 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 4 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 5 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 4 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 4 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：4 月国内经济增长动能有所回落但仍显稳健。预计 4 月国内 CPI 环比约为 0.1%，CPI 同比持平上月 的-0.1%；4 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.5%，PPI ...

巴基斯坦央行行长表示将关注贸易关税对出口的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The Vietnamese Prime Minister aims to boost exports to relevant markets through free trade agreements [1] - To promote domestic consumption, the government plans to increase public investment [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about a potential recession as President Trump's second term begins [1] - Some Wall Street economists have revised their GDP forecasts to negative growth due to unexpected increases in imports driven by inventory accumulation by businesses and consumers [1] - Imports negatively impacted GDP by over 5 percentage points, while exports grew by 1.8% [1] Economic Indicators - Personal consumption expenditures grew by 1.8%, marking the slowest quarterly growth since Q2 2023, down from 4% in the previous quarter [1] - Private domestic investment saw a significant increase of 21.9% [1]