利率 - 反内卷对债市的两条影响路径 20250707 摘要 当前利率已走低，未来走向取决于 6 月经济数据，如通胀、社融和出口。 若数据不佳，央行可能进一步宽松，利好债市，类似于 2015-2016 年 供给侧改革初期。 反内卷通过约束产能推升商品价格，类似供给侧改革，但可能因企业退 出导致就业和收入下降，对需求产生负面影响。缺乏需求侧支持的反内 卷对债市偏利多。 历史经验表明，无需求侧配合的通胀难以持续。若仅因供给侧冲击导致 短期通胀，央行或维持宽松。2015 年供给侧改革期间，利率整体下行， 表明通胀压力可控。 螺纹钢价格通常领先于 PPI 和利率。2015 年底螺纹钢率先上涨，PPI 随 后见底，利率在 2016 年 1 月触底后反弹，受大宗商品价格、供给侧改 革和经济数据改善等多重因素影响。 2021 年大宗商品上涨不仅因输入性通胀，更受煤炭行业政策影响，如 《刑法修正案（十一）》禁止超产及安全检查等，导致煤炭供应收紧， 需求良好也助推价格上涨。 Q&A 反内卷对债券市场的影响如何？ 反内卷对债券市场的影响相对较小。尽管权益市场因反内卷而表现火热，但债 券市场并未受到显著影响。当前，债市关注的主要是 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the geopolitical dilemma faced by the EU as it navigates between the US and China, highlighting its attempts to establish trade agreements with the US while simultaneously managing its relationship with China [1][3][11] - The EU has imposed trade barriers against Chinese products, citing unfair competition, which has led to retaliatory measures from China, including anti-dumping investigations on EU products [1][6][17] - The EU's exports to China are declining while imports from China are increasing, prompting EU decision-makers to tighten restrictions on Chinese goods [6][11][18] Group 2 - The EU is exploring new trade partnerships with a group of 11 countries, excluding the US and China, indicating a shift in its trade strategy [5] - Despite the EU's criticisms of China regarding trade practices and geopolitical issues, the economic interdependence between the two regions limits the EU's ability to exert pressure on China [11][13] - The article notes that the EU's reliance on Chinese industrial materials remains significant, complicating its stance against China [10][18] Group 3 - The EU's recent measures to restrict Chinese participation in public procurement for medical devices are framed as necessary for fair competition, but have led to reciprocal actions from China [6][9] - The article highlights the EU's ongoing challenges in balancing its trade policies with both the US and China, as it faces pressure from both sides [8][10] - The EU's leadership is expected to continue pressing China for more stable supply channels for critical materials like rare earths during upcoming summits [15][18]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月07日 电力设备新能源行业点评 金风科技业务海外快速增长，浙江海风产业链合资成立海工基地 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  电力设备 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王蔚祺 | 010-88005313 | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520080003 | | 证券分析师： | 王晓声 | 010-88005231 | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523050002 | 国信电新观点：1）今日金风科技在投资者互动平台表示，公司秉承"以本土化推进国际化"的宗旨，积 极拓展国际市场。此前公司披露１-5 月全资子公司金风国际实现营业收入 71.9 亿元，同比增长 96％；实 现净利润 9.33 亿元，同比增长 182％（以上财务数据来自公司公告，均为未经审计数据）。2）日月股份、 东方电缆与浙江能源集团下属企业成立浙江海风装备基地。3）南方电网阳江三山岛海上风电柔性直流输 电工程（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The export of used cars in China has become a new growth point for foreign trade, with significant increases expected in the coming years, driven by supportive government policies and market demand [1][4][12]. Group 1: Industry Development - Since the initiation of used car export trials in 2019, the industry has seen rapid growth, with 275,000 used cars exported in 2023 and projections of nearly 400,000 in 2024 [1][4]. - The Ministry of Commerce has announced plans to further support the healthy and orderly development of the used car export market, emphasizing the importance of quality and safety [2][12]. - The transition from a pilot program to a nationwide initiative in February 2024 has provided clarity and direction for companies involved in used car exports [4][5]. Group 2: Challenges and Competition - The industry faces challenges such as low-price competition and shortcomings in after-sales service, which could impact consumer trust and brand image [2][7]. - Some companies focus solely on trade without establishing adequate after-sales support, which is crucial for maintaining customer satisfaction and brand reputation [7][9]. - The emergence of "0-kilometer" used cars, which are essentially new cars marketed as used, presents a unique competitive advantage but also raises concerns about market saturation and quality perception [6][12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Industry leaders suggest building robust after-sales service systems and establishing overseas service networks to enhance customer experience and trust [9][10]. - There is a call for stricter regulations on technical requirements and quality standards for used car exports to prevent issues arising from low-price competition [10][11]. - Encouraging innovation in marketing and sales channels, such as e-commerce platforms for used car exports, is seen as a way to enhance competitiveness and reach new markets [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The normalization of used car exports is viewed as a critical step for China to transition from a major automotive market to a strong automotive industry, enhancing global influence and market share [12]. - The establishment of a comprehensive traceability system for used cars is expected to address transparency issues and improve consumer confidence [6][12]. - The development of a complete supply chain, including logistics and financial services, is essential for supporting the growth of the used car export sector [11][12].

智利六月份进口额为69.59亿美元，出口额为82.9亿美元，贸易顺差为13.31亿美元。6月铜出口额达46.7 亿美元，锂出口额达1亿2930万美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is expected to develop healthily, with a focus on leading export chain enterprises in the machinery sector [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% from June 29 to July 4, 2025, while the machinery equipment sector underperformed, increasing by only 0.26% [2][10] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries, as domestic leading enterprises maintain strong competitive advantages [3] Weekly Market Review - The overall market performance from June 29 to July 4, 2025, saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.40%, with the machinery equipment sector lagging behind the broader market [2][10] - Sub-sectors such as engineering machinery and rail transit equipment showed positive growth, with increases of 1.44% and 0.75% respectively, while automation equipment declined by 0.67% [2][10] Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy sector is being supported by new organizational structures within the Civil Aviation Administration to promote safe and orderly development [3] - The machinery equipment sector is advised to keep an eye on the export chain, particularly in light of ongoing trade negotiations [3] Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, and Wan Feng Ao Wei among others [4] - In the machinery equipment sector, recommended companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli [4] Important Weekly News - The State Taxation Administration reported over 630 billion yuan in tax reductions and refunds for the manufacturing sector in the first five months of 2025, indicating strong growth in advanced manufacturing [20] - The first combined operation platform for tunnel construction was launched, significantly improving efficiency and reducing costs [21] - A new intelligent piling vessel was put into operation, achieving a 30% increase in efficiency [21] Economic Data Tracking - The manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment data indicate a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, with sales revenue in advanced manufacturing growing significantly [35][37] - Monthly export totals and changes show fluctuations, with a focus on the performance of machinery and equipment exports [40][55] Key Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks production and export data for various machinery sectors, including metal cutting machine tools and industrial robots, highlighting trends and changes in output [46][48] - The report also includes data on the sales of excavators and forklifts, both domestically and for export, providing insights into market demand [52][53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, which imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, is expected to improve export chain sentiment [12][6] - The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight recovery in June 2025, indicating improved new orders and production indices, which may contribute to a positive outlook for the industry [12][24] Company Summaries 1) Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic - The company focuses on ultrasonic equipment and solutions, achieving a revenue of 148 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 23.63 million yuan, up 2152.47% [3][13] - The business recovery in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery expansion, is expected to bring performance elasticity [13] 2) Zhenghe Industrial - Engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of various chain transmission systems, the company reported a revenue of 395 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.32% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 53.84 million yuan, up 100.09% [4][14] - The company is developing a micro-chain system project, focusing on robotic dexterous hand transmission technology, which may benefit from the mass production of humanoid robots [14] 3) Lvtian Machinery - The main products include general power machinery and high-pressure cleaning machines, with energy storage products entering mass production. Revenue growth rates for Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 are projected at 47.9%, 72.5%, and 50.1%, respectively [5][15] - The company is expected to experience a performance turning point, indicating a positive outlook for valuation recovery [15] Industry Overview - The mechanical index (CITIC) increased by 0.41% last week, while the overall market indices also showed positive growth [16][19] - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment in China grew by 8.5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a recovery trend [24]

中国副总理何立峰 (2019年，北京，Reuters) 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 中国副总理何立峰预计在7月11日的大阪世博会中国"国家日"期间访日。日中友好议员联盟的干部等正 在考虑在大阪迎接。日中友好议员联盟方面将在与何立峰的会谈中，再次提出租借大熊猫的要求…… 森山4月率领议员联盟访华，向中国政治局常务委员赵乐际提出租借新的熊猫。由于何立峰此 次访日恰逢参议院选举（7月3日公示-7月20日投计票），因此尚未决定与哪位议员联盟干部 会面。 预计何立峰在大阪逗留期间还将与关西的财界人士举行会谈。就中国4月开始强化的稀土出口 管制交换意见，日方或许提出进行迅速、公平的审查等要求。 中国派遣何立峰前往日本，可能是为了表现出重视中日关系的态度。大阪世博会有158个国家 和地区参加。芬兰和巴拉圭的首脑已在国家日期间访问了日本。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）田岛如生 北京报道 中国副总理何立峰预计近期访问日本，前往大阪关西世博会。计划与日本自民党干事长森山 裕担任会长的日中友好议员联盟干部进行会谈，目前正在调 ...

中美韩芳烃进出口格局梳理 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 7 日 ——"苯心聚力，期开得胜"纯苯期货上市系列报告 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | huangtianyuan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 贺晓勤 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 | hexiaoqin@gtht.com | | 钱嘉寅（联系人） | 从业资格号：F03124480 | Qianjiayin@gtht.com | 报告导读： 近年来，中国芳烃（包含 PX、纯苯、MX、甲苯）进口总量下滑，2021 年，中国芳烃进口量高达 1790 万吨，到 2024 年总进口量降至 1514 万吨。从品种上来看，中国进口芳烃主要是 PX，占到芳烃总进口量 的一半以上，其次是纯苯、MX，进口最少的是甲苯（净出口）。 中国纯苯进口量持续回升。2020 年中国纯苯进口量 209 万吨，2024 年上升至 431 万吨，进口依赖度 维持在 15%左右。季节性角度看，纯苯进口量呈现年中偏低，年底与年初较高的特点，年内也会随着库存 结构以及进口利润而变化。 PX 是中国芳烃进 ...

厦油产业期现日报 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月7日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent WTI | 67.78 | 68.30 | -0.52 | -0.76% | 美元/桶 | | | 65.98 | 67.00 | -1.02 | -1.52% | | | ਟ | 501.20 | 506.40 | -5.20 | -1.03% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.67 | 1.84 | -0.17 | -9.24% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 2.37 | 2.60 | -0.23 | -8.85% | | | SC MI-M3 | 9.40 | 11.60 | -2.20 | -18.97% | 元/相 | | Brent-WTI | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | EFS | 1.79 | 1.85 | -0.06 | -3.24% | 美元/桶 | | SC-Bren ...