市场主流观点汇总 2025/6/17 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/13 | | 2025/6/6 | 至 | 2025/6/13 | | | 原油 | 529.90 | 原油 | | | 13.69% | | | 甲醇 | 2389.00 | 甲醇 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.49%至 9695 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.45%至 78450 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，欧日纷纷表态，与美贸易谈判暂无取得 | | | | 较大进展。但相比贸易谈判，市场更加关注伊以冲突的进展，有报道称伊朗希望与美 | | | | 国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌。 | | | | 对于铜的影响则在于市场风险偏好的变化。国内方面，5 月经济数据整体呈现"冷热 | | | | 不均"的格局。工业增加值表现尚可，社零增速明显提高，消费品以旧换新政策持续 | | | 铜 | 显效；房地产同比跌幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增速略有下降。库存方面，LME 库存 | | | | 下降 7150 吨至 107325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1193 吨至 17.9 万吨；SMM 周一统计全国 | | | | 精炼铜社会库存较上周四增加 0.29 万吨至 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The market sentiment improved due to reports indicating Iran's willingness to release tensions, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - Gold prices initially surged to $3452 per ounce but later fell below $3400 during North American trading hours [1] - The decline in gold prices was attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following Iran's openness to nuclear negotiations and profit-taking by traders after reaching an eight-week high [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy announcement, despite ongoing pressure for rate cuts from President Trump [3] - Economic uncertainties, including tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, may lead the Federal Reserve to delay any rate cuts [3] - Investors remain cautious regarding the Fed's future policy direction due to unclear judgments on inflation and growth [3] Group 3 - The recent gold market showed a pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, causing confusion among market participants [5] - A critical support level is identified at $3376, with resistance at $3415, indicating a potential for continued volatility [5] - The overall trend is characterized as sideways, with the possibility of further adjustments before a clear direction is established [5] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests buying near $3376 with a stop loss at $3368, targeting $3410-15, while also considering short positions if $3415 is not breached [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of providing useful insights to investors and maintaining a disciplined approach to trading [7]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-17 地缘局势缓解，股指反弹 市场分析 中东局势暂未升级。国内方面，国家统计局发布最新经济数据显示，5月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%， 社会消费品零售总额增长6.4%，前5个月，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，高端制造、数字经济等发展新动能持 续壮大，5月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长8.6%，数字产品制造业增加值同比增长9.1%。1-5月份， 全国新建商品房销售面积和销售额同比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，新开工降幅继续低位收窄，投资降幅略有扩大，商 品房库存已经连续三个月减少。海外方面，伊朗通过中间方传达愿意在美国不参与以色列袭击的前提下重启谈判 的意愿，同时伊朗向以色列传达信息，希望双方将攻击控制在有限范围内。 指数上行。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡上行，上证指数涨0.35%收于3388.73点，创业板指涨0.26%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，传媒、通信、计算机、房地产行业领涨，农林牧渔、美容护理、有色金属行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额为1.2万亿元。海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.52%报19701.21点。 期指减仓。期货市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For financial futures and options, the overall market is affected by overseas and domestic factors. The stock index futures are expected to continue adjusting in the short - term and move in a range in the medium - term, while the bond futures are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures and options, different varieties in the metal and new energy materials sector have different trends. Copper is expected to move in a range, while industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be weak [4][6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Continued adjustment [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and short - sell IM2506 on rallies [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the Middle East conflict have mixed impacts; domestically, the fundamental data is weak, and the market lacks a continuous upward main line [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, and long - term bonds are strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Strong [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the Middle East conflict boosts the domestic bond market; in terms of funds, the central bank's operation is beneficial to long - term bonds; fundamentally, the financial data and price levels support the loose expectation [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79100 [4] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a shock - operation strategy [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the Israel - Iran conflict affects the market; in terms of supply, the production plan of a copper mine is reduced, while Yunnan Copper's production increases; in terms of demand, the wire and cable and copper rod industries have different trends; in terms of inventory, LME and SHFE have different inventory changes. The Sino - US tariff negotiation results are crucial for the future copper price [4][5] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 7300 - 7400 [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure in the range of 7000 - 8500 [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000 and short - sell futures [6] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [6][7] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Polycrystalline Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 33000 - 34000 [8] - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation in the range of 30000 - 40000 [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold PS2507 - C - 45000 [8] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [8][9][10] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 62000 - 65000 [11] - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price steadily declines in the range of 59000 - 65000 [11] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold LC2507 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, the supply pressure is large, and the total inventory is at a high level [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

本周三（6月11日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金价格小幅上涨，截至目前报3356.60美元/盎司，涨幅 0.35%，今日开盘于3344.30美元/盎司，最高上探3364.80美元/盎司，最低触及3335.40美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普所实施的关税暂时被联邦上诉法院允许维持生效，贸易不确定性在短期内有所缓解。 "法院的暂缓裁定提升了市场对贸易局势的短期信心，激励投资者转向风险资产，削弱了避险货币日元 的需求。" 日元在全球贸易乐观情绪主导的市场环境中，连续第二日维持疲软走势。截至亚洲交易时段，美元/日 元交投在145.00附近，接近前一交易日触及的两周低点。 随着亚洲大国和美国贸易关系取得积极进展，市场风险偏好持续改善，削弱了日元作为避险货币的吸引 力。 与此同时，亚洲大国和美国双方在伦敦达成初步贸易框架。美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克指出，该框 架是缓解全球贸易紧张的第一步。 避险情绪的缓解使美元短线获得部分买盘支撑，帮助美元/日元维持涨势。不过，日本国内经济数据改 善，以及通胀扩散迹象不断增强，令市场对日本央行年内再次加息的预期逐步升温，部分对冲了日元持 续贬值的压力。 【COMEX黄金行情解析】 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Group 1 - The market sentiment was initially "risk on" due to a call between the highest leaders of China and the US, leading to a price rebound, but concerns over economic growth resurfaced after the non-farm payroll data, causing prices to retreat [1][3]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations while silver saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold rising by 0.54% and silver by 9.24% last week [2][20]. - The COMEX copper price showed a rebound from Monday to Thursday, peaking on Thursday before a pullback on Friday, influenced by concerns over increased tariffs on steel and aluminum [3][5]. Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict supported precious metal prices, while the call between the US and China leaders eased macroeconomic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite [4][20]. - Following the release of non-farm payroll data that exceeded market expectations but had a significant downward revision of previous values, concerns about the US economy led to a rise in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices [4][20]. - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, indicating a contango structure, with copper inventories nearing 200,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in US copper stocks [5][6]. Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was stable, with trade prices for clean copper concentrate remaining in a narrow range, indicating limited market activity [7]. - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased, reflecting a rise in imports and limited downstream consumption, with expectations of a decrease in inventory in the coming week [13][10]. - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods mostly declined, with a notable drop in East China, while the market for recycled copper rods showed signs of recovery [16]. Group 4 - The gold and silver markets showed divergence, with silver's gains outpacing gold's, leading to a significant drop in the gold-silver ratio [22]. - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 1,290,000 ounces, indicating a tightening supply in the precious metals market [36][41]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4 tons to 934 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 406 tons to 14,709 tons, reflecting increased investor interest in precious metals [41].