周二（8月12日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.49，跌幅0.01%，开盘价为98.51。 澳新银行的经济学 家TomKenny表示，美国7月份核心CPI可能环比上涨0.32%，这将推动同比升幅从2.9%升至3.0%。 特朗普政府于4月初设定的对等关税现已对大多数国家实施。目前进口商品的实际关税税率在20%左 右，Kenny预计，与近几个月相比，关税将在7月份对通胀产生一些影响。不过，他还表示，鉴于近期 劳动力市场状况降温以及核心服务业通胀回归长期趋势，美联储在9月份会议上下调联邦基金利率是合 适的。 美元指数整体处于震荡格局。MACD指标(26,12,9)显示DIFF线(0.1007)刚刚下穿DEA线(0.1277)，MACD 值为0.0545，暗示短期动能减弱，可能面临回调压力。 ...

黄金多空双收，原油反弹继续空！ 在关税风波逐步落地之后，市场的关注重心也是再度转移到了后续美联储货币政策之上，今晚上的CPI通胀数据也是备受关 注，通胀数据一直都是美联储衡量降息的重要依据，同时特朗普辟谣黄金进口关税，本周将与普京的会晤也预示着俄乌战争 可能接近尾声，导致近期避险情绪是有所消退，黄金也是从高位如期走出回落，上个交易日黄金早间开盘从3405附近一路回 落，早盘迅速跌破3380这个周五多次回踩未破的低点支撑之后惯性杀跌，早盘第一波回踩3367附近反抽3380附近确认压力之 后欧美盘二次回落，美盘前回踩3344附近之后反弹到了3362附近晚间再度回落触及3341附近再度企稳反抽，目前来看这个走 势基本符合我们昨天跟大家分享的走势，早盘3378附近直接空，关注3340/45的支撑，然后在3345/6做多也是兑现到了3360上 方目标位，日内继续关注一下3340/3335这个短期支撑情况，操作上反弹继续先空， 但是不过分追空，关注一下晚间CPI数据 的指引情况。 8/12黄金原油参考思路 黄金回踩3336附近多，防守3329，目标看3355附近，反抽初见3360附近空，防守3368，看3342/3335 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under short - term pressure from factors such as the resilience of exports and the economic fundamentals, the warming of commodities, and the rise in market risk appetite. However, the bull - market foundation remains unchanged in the long run. In the short term, the bond market may fall into a shock due to the intertwined influence of multiple factors [11][12]. - The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. Although the inflation data has improved, whether the industrial product prices can continue to rise needs to be observed based on the actual implementation of the capacity - reduction policy [11]. - The capital market is expected to remain loose in August due to factors such as the decrease in government bond issuance, fiscal investment, and the support of the central bank [12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to open lower and close lower across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all increased, with the long - end increasing by 2 - 3bp. The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank funds remained loose [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. The long - term bull - market foundation remains unchanged, but the short - term bond market may fall into a shock. This week, attention should be paid to the issuance of treasury bonds after the implementation of the new VAT regulations, economic data, and the actual implementation of the exemption and extension on August 12 [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Inflation Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year for three consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and the year - on - year decline remained the same as the previous month [13]. - **Real Estate Market**: From January to July, the land acquisition amount of top 100 enterprises and the land transfer fees in 300 cities increased year - on - year, indicating a recovery in corporate investment confidence. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy and increased the support of housing provident funds [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on August 11, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index loosened, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [33].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a downward trend, influenced by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - The recent peak of gold prices reached $3534.10, but a rapid decline followed due to rumors regarding tariff clarifications from the White House [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3340, with potential further declines targeting $3330, $3315, $3300, and ultimately $3245, $3150-3120, and $3000-2950 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have continued to decline, with Brent crude falling to $66.07 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.30, primarily due to increased tariffs and OPEC's decision to boost production [5][6] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming inflation data from the U.S., which is expected to significantly influence oil prices [5] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil, with a focus on resistance levels at $66.0-$67.0 and support levels at $62.5-$61.5 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. stock indices, the significant drop in gold prices, and the extension of tariff suspension on China by the Trump administration, highlighting the market's anticipation of upcoming inflation data [2][24]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On August 11, the three major U.S. stock indices opened the week with declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 200.52 points, or 0.45%, closing at 43975.09 points [4][5]. - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 64.62 points, or 0.30%, to close at 21385.40 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 16.00 points, or 0.25%, ending at 6373.45 points [4][5]. - A record proportion of fund managers, approximately 91%, believe that U.S. stocks are currently "too expensive," marking the highest level since 2001 [8]. Group 2: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, which are expected to significantly influence interest rate expectations [9]. - Economists predict that the July CPI will rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, with the core CPI expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, reflecting a rise from June levels [9]. Group 3: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping by 1.6% to a low of $3341.25 per ounce, marking a new low in over a week, while December futures fell by 2.5% to settle at $3404.70 per ounce [21][24]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple negative factors, including Trump's tariff exemption statement on gold, the extension of the U.S.-China trade truce, potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and market anxiety over upcoming U.S. inflation data [24]. Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement with the Trump administration to pay 15% of their revenue from chips sold to China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses [10][13]. - This agreement highlights the ongoing regulatory environment affecting semiconductor companies and their international operations [10][13].

Market Overview - The US stock market opened the week with declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 200.52 points (0.45%) to close at 43,975.09 points, the Nasdaq down by 64.62 points (0.30%) at 21,385.40 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 16.00 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 points [2] - A record proportion of fund managers, approximately 91%, believe that US stocks are currently overvalued, marking the highest level since 2001 [4] - Hedge funds net sold $1 billion in US stocks last week, while institutional investors focused on long positions bought $4 billion [4] Technology Sector - Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement with the Trump administration to pay 15% of their revenue from chips sold to China to the US government in exchange for export licenses [5][7] - Nvidia will pay 15% of its revenue from H20 chips sold in China, while AMD will do the same for MI308 chips [7] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple down 0.83%, Amazon down 0.62%, and Nvidia down 0.3% [5] Energy Sector - Energy stocks experienced a broad decline, with ExxonMobil down 0.87%, Chevron down nearly 1%, and ConocoPhillips down 0.39% [8][9] - WTI crude oil prices remained stable, closing at $63.99 per barrel [8] Gold Market - Gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping 1.6% to a low of $3,341.25 per ounce, marking a new low in over a week, while December futures fell 2.5% to settle at $3,404.70 per ounce [10] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple negative factors, including Trump's exemption on gold tariffs, the extension of the US-China trade truce, and market anxiety over upcoming US inflation data [10]

周一，美国股市在开盘时表现平稳，投资者们正密切关注即将于本周发布的一系列经济数据，这些数据或 将为美联储未来降息的节奏提供重要线索。目前，道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数以及标准普尔 500指数均轻微上扬，涨幅约为0.1%，而CBOE波动率指数则维持在略低于16的相对低位，显示出市场情绪 相对平稳。 值得注意的是，周二将成为本周数据发布的关键节点，其中最为引人瞩目的莫过于7月的消费者物价指数 （CPI）。鉴于近期劳动力市场出现降温迹象，此次CPI数据的发布将为市场提供一个观察关税政策对通胀 水平影响的重要窗口。分析人士指出，通胀数据的表现将对美联储在9月份的货币政策决策中是否继续降 息起到至关重要的作用。 多位经济学家及市场分析人士强调，本周即将揭晓的一系列数据不仅将揭示美国经济的最新动向，更将直 接影响投资者对未来经济走势的预期。特别是在当前全球经济环境充满不确定性的背景下，美联储的货币 政策走向成为了市场关注的焦点。因此，投资者们正屏息以待，希望通过即将发布的数据捕捉到更多关于 未来经济走向的线索。 值得注意的是，尽管当前市场情绪相对平稳，但投资者们仍需保持警惕。毕竟，经济数据的变化往往具有 不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is approaching its historical high, driven by factors such as Trump's approval for U.S. pension plans to invest in cryptocurrencies and potential tariffs on gold bars [3][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Movements - Bitcoin has seen a 24-hour increase of 3.33%, surpassing $121,000, while Ethereum has risen to $4,350, marking a 78% increase since July [3]. - Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is growing, with Bitcoin reserves valued at $113 billion and Ethereum-related investment tools accumulating approximately $13 billion [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Positive macroeconomic outlook continues to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, with expectations that Bitcoin will break its historical high this month [4]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has strengthened, indicating that Bitcoin's recent price movements are influenced by trends in risk assets [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Inflation Expectations - Optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving the U.S. stock market, with focus on the upcoming consumer price index report [6]. - Any weaker-than-expected inflation data could enhance the likelihood of rate cuts as early as September [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The current bullish trend in cryptocurrencies is expected to continue, with projections suggesting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year [6]. - However, some investors are adopting defensive strategies in anticipation of higher-than-expected inflation data, which could lead to market volatility [7][8].

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]