Monex Inc.外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett：本周流动性薄弱，这对本已处于相对弱势的美元并无帮助。 展望未来，我们的重点将放在通胀数据上，以此作为美联储下次降息的指引。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, currently at 1.3670, influenced by central bank policy divergences and economic data fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown resilience, stabilizing above 1.3670 after a high of 1.3944 in September, reflecting strong market dynamics despite fluctuations in oil prices and policy expectations [1]. - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% on December 10, indicating a resilient economy despite challenges from U.S. tariffs, with future policy adjustments dependent on inflation and economic data [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, up from 1.9% in August, driven by narrowing gasoline price declines and rising food prices, with core CPI at 2.6% [2]. - The Canadian economy is characterized by a mix of resilience and pressure, with a strong GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, but expected weakness in Q4 due to declining net exports and uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [2]. Group 3: Commodity Influence and Market Sentiment - The structural weakening of the U.S. dollar index, which has fallen over 9% this year, is countered by the weakening commodity attributes of the Canadian dollar, limiting the upward movement of USD/CAD [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a clear short-term oscillation pattern for USD/CAD, with key support levels at 1.3321 and 1.3265, and resistance levels at 1.3383 and 1.3480, with potential volatility due to holiday liquidity constraints and economic data releases [3].

Group 1 - The London silver market is currently trading above $72.06, with a recent opening at $71.46 and a peak of $72.70, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The U.S. GDP data shows a significant growth of 4.3% in Q3, surpassing the expected 3.2%, with consumer spending increasing by 3.5% and corporate profits soaring by $166.1 billion [2] - The inflation data presents mixed signals, with the personal consumption expenditures index rising by 2.8% and the core personal consumption expenditures increasing by 2.9%, leading to skepticism about the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] Group 2 - Silver's price volatility is generally higher than that of gold due to its dual role as an investment and its extensive industrial applications, such as in electronics and solar panels [2] - The liquidity of silver is relatively lower compared to gold, which may complicate the process of monetization, necessitating investors to assess potential trading costs and timing issues [2] - The recent trading activity in the London silver market shows a strong upward movement after a dip, with key support and resistance levels identified for future trading strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new highs, approaching $4,500 per ounce, driven by factors such as liquidity easing, geopolitical tensions, and a trend towards de-dollarization, indicating strong long-term investment potential in gold [1][3] Economic Indicators - The delayed release of the U.S. November CPI showed inflation declining more than expected at 2.7% versus the forecast of 3.1%, with core CPI at 2.6%, significantly below expectations and marking the lowest level since 2021 [1] - The quality of the inflation data is questioned due to the impact of government shutdowns on data collection, with price collection starting only after November 14, missing the full month [1] Market Reactions - Despite concerns about the inflation data's accuracy, the market reacted with cautious optimism, viewing it as a potential catalyst for more interest rate cuts next year, which supports precious metal prices [1] - Recent geopolitical conflicts may increase the premium on gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Central Bank Activity - Global central banks remain strong buyers of gold, ensuring consistent capital inflow into the gold market [3] - As of the end of November, the People's Bank of China held 7.412 million ounces of gold, marking the 13th consecutive month of increased gold reserves [3] - In October, global net gold purchases totaled 53 tons, a 36% increase month-over-month, indicating robust demand [3]

【美联储理事米兰：近期数据应该会促使人们向鸽派方向转变】智通财经12月22日电，美联储理事米兰 表示，由于美国政府停摆，上周的通胀数据存在一些异常之处，全年CPI都存在严重的向上偏差；近期 数据应该会促使人们向鸽派方向转变；认为美国近期内不会出现经济衰退，如果不调整政策，美国将面 临日益加剧的经济衰退风险。 ...

钛媒体App 12月22日消息，美联储理事米兰表示，由于美国政府停摆，上周的通胀数据存在一些异常之 处。（广角观察） ...

2026年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack加入美联储鹰派阵营，明确表示未来几个月内没 有必要降息，并质疑11月通胀数据的准确性。这一立场进一步强化了美联储暂停降息周期的信号，为明 年货币政策路径增添更多不确定性。 据《华尔街日报》周日报道，Hammack在接受采访时表示，美联储至少在明年春季之前无需改变目前 3.5%-3.75%的基准利率区间。她此前曾反对近期的降息决定，更担心通胀居高不下而非劳动力市场疲 软。 市场对美联储2025年降息预期持续降温，交易员预计明年上半年降息概率较低，6月降息可能性约为 50%。 CPI数据准确性存疑 Hammack对当前通胀形势表达了更多担忧。她向《华尔街日报》表示，11月CPI 2.7%的同比增幅可能因 数据扭曲而低估了实际的价格涨幅。 虽然Hammack认为当前政策利率处于中性水平附近的合适位置，但她更倾向于采取略微更具限制性的 立场，以对通胀施加更大压力。 作为曾反对美联储过去几个月累计降息75个基点决定的官员，Hammack的担忧主要集中在通胀居高不 下，而非促使其他官员降息的潜在劳动力市场脆弱性。 Hammack的鹰派表态呼应了其他美联储官员 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have collectively surged, reaching new historical highs as of December 22, with significant price increases noted in both spot and futures markets [1][8]. Gold Market - Spot gold in London has surpassed the $4,400 per ounce mark, reaching $4,401.274 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1][10]. - COMEX gold has stabilized at $4,430.9 per ounce, also marking a new historical high [3][10]. Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price reaching 1,368 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [5][12]. - Other brands such as Lao Miao and Chow Sang Sang have also reported prices exceeding 1,365 RMB per gram [5][12]. Silver Market - Both spot and futures silver prices have reached new historical highs, with London silver at $69.229 per ounce, showing a daily increase of 3.25%, and COMEX silver at $69.375 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.79% [6][14]. Platinum Market - Spot platinum has also seen significant gains, reaching $2,055.7 per ounce, marking the first time it has surpassed $2,000 per ounce since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 127% [6][14]. Market Analysis - CITIC Securities indicates that the unexpected cooling of the U.S. November CPI has led to an upward revision of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the strength of precious metals [7][15]. - Galaxy Futures notes that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on future monetary policy has weakened the yen, alleviating potential global liquidity tightening pressures, while U.S. inflation data has unexpectedly shown moderation, reinforcing a trend of slowing economic growth [8][15]. - Galaxy Futures anticipates that gold and silver prices are likely to maintain a strong trend in the near term, although market liquidity changes during the holiday period may impact price volatility [8][15].

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 商俭 S0630525060002 shangjian@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251222 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月22日 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.商品走势分化，中美的高科技投资持续增长——资产配置周报（2025/12/15-2025/12/19） ➢ 2.美国11月通胀意外放缓，但参考性降低——海外观察：美国2025年11月CPI数据 ➢ 3.杰克科技（603337）：启航新程，科技引领，与客户共谋全球化新篇——公司简评报告 ➢ 1.日本央行宣布加息25个基点 ➢ 2.三部门发布《互联网平台价格行为规则》 ➢ 3.李强主持召开国务院常务会议，对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部署作出安排 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 3 | | - ...

展望未来，分析警告不应过度解读单月通胀数据的疲软。部分领域的价格压力，例如商品通胀，可能在后续月份出现小幅回升。与此同时，当前显示疲软的 住房价格数据也存在后续修正或改变的可能性。 有观点指出，美联储的政策制定者或将更为关注即将发布的十二月通胀数据，以此来更全面地评估物价变化的真实趋势。尽管十一月数据显示出通胀放缓的 迹象，但其影响可能相对有限。分析认为，核心通胀指标的意外下行部分受到技术性及时间相关因素的干扰，并不完全代表整体通胀压力得到普遍缓解。 最新公布的美国十一月消费者价格指数数据一度提振市场情绪，整体与核心通胀指标均低于预期，进一步强化了市场关于明年美联储可能降息的判断。然 而，华尔街机构分析认为，这份报告可能不足以在短期内实质性改变货币政策的走向。 具体来看，住房相关成本的涨幅显著低于长期趋势，这对整体指数构成了明显拖累。这一现象可能部分归因于十月数据统计的技术性因素，也可能与十一月 价格采集的时间点较晚有关。分析人士提醒，相关数据处理方法尚未完全明确，这意味着未来几个月的通胀数据仍存在发生波动的可能性。 除了消费者价格指数，市场也密切关注美联储更为重视的个人消费支出价格指数。初步估算显示，近两个 ...