1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" policy hype in the black sector has led to general price increases. For the steel market, there are differences in the demand recovery between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with the former being slower and the latter faster. For the iron ore market, the supply is at a high level, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilization. Technical breakthroughs need further observation [2][5]. - In the steel market, the policy aims to rectify low - price and disorderly competition, promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and guide enterprises to improve product quality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Policy Impact**: The publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi magazine triggers market speculation about the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, with a consistent policy tone compared to the article on July 1 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total production of five major steel products has decreased by 3.4 million tons week - on - week, factory inventory has decreased by 3.5 million tons, social inventory has increased by 17.4 million tons, and total inventory has increased by 13.9 million tons. Apparent demand has increased by 15.5 million tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 million tons. Currently, the demand for rebar recovers slowly, while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar has broken through the pressure of the upper 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and hot - rolled coils have broken through the pressure of the middle Bollinger Band, showing a short - term strong rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing up, and treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: The resurgence of "anti - involution" speculation has led to a general rise in the black sector, and iron ore has followed suit. The profitability of sample steel mills has recently declined, mainly due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventory shows signs of stabilization, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract forms an upward breakthrough, it enters an oscillation state. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be a false one, try to enter the market to short. If an upward effective breakthrough is formed, consider short - term and light - position long - buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Data**: In August, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; and steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7]. - **Tariff Policy**: The United States has opened a "tariff inclusion window" for steel and aluminum under Section 232, planning to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives [8]. - **Coal Mine Shutdown**: Two coal mines in Shanxi have shut down, with uncertain复产 times. One in Lvliang Zhongyang has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons, and the other in Linfen Guxian has a production capacity of 0.9 million tons [8]. - **Iron Ore Shipment**: From September 8th to September 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.482 million tons [8]. - **Coke Price Adjustment**: On September 15th, steel mills in the Hebei market lowered the coke purchase price by 50/55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Steel Inventory**: In early September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, or 5.6% [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has weak fundamentals, with supply declining to a relatively low level compared to the same period, but terminal demand remaining sluggish and inventory rebounding. It is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1180 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.29%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 1072 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 108 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton, a change of 25.00% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1072 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [12][16]. - **Supply Side**: The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 160,200 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [22][24]. - **Demand Side**: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance table of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [43]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4]. 3.5 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend [5].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation for domestic demand is strengthening due to intensified debt reduction policies and a backdrop of overseas interest rate cuts [1][2] - The government aims to establish a debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development, focusing on reducing existing hidden debts while promoting economic stability [2] Group 2: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand as it enters the peak season in September, although growth remains limited [2] - The implementation of policies to restrict overproduction is anticipated to enhance capacity utilization in the medium term, with current low demand and prices [2] - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry currently lacks fundamental support, with supply-demand imbalances persisting and limited improvement in downstream demand [3] - The industry is expected to experience bottom-level price fluctuations, with environmental regulations likely to accelerate the pace of industry upgrades [3] - Key company to monitor is Qibin Group [3] Group 4: Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the AI industry, with a notable increase in both volume and price for low dielectric products [3] - The industry is expected to see explosive growth in demand alongside AI advancements [3] - Key companies to focus on include China Jushi and China National Building Material [3] Group 5: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected [3] - The sector is experiencing strong calls for price increases and profitability improvements, with several product categories issuing price increase notices [3] - Key companies to watch include Oriental Yuhong, Skshu Paint, Beixin Building Materials, and Rabbit Baby [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector has shown a positive performance with a weekly increase of 2.45%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which rose by 1.38% and 2.12% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.07% and 0.33% [2][3] Group 1: Cement Market - The national high-standard cement market price is 344.0 CNY/ton, up by 1.3 CNY/ton from last week, but down by 40.7 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][8] - Average cement inventory among sample enterprises is 65.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last week and 0.2 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 46.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points from last week but down by 4.5 percentage points from 2024 [3] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price of float glass is 1197.0 CNY/ton, increasing by 4.0 CNY/ton from last week but down by 86.9 CNY/ton from 2024 [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for float glass is 55 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes from last week and 8.62 million heavy boxes from 2024 [3] - The domestic market for fiberglass has seen slight price increases, with mainstream prices for 2400tex alkali-free yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 50-150 CNY/ton from previous periods [3][6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market [4][10] - The cement industry is anticipated to see a rebound in prices due to improved supply-demand balance and the exit of zombie capacities, with leading companies likely to benefit from this optimization [8] - The fiberglass sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability as supply pressures ease and demand from new applications in renewable energy and electric vehicles grows [6][7]

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：金价上行，双焦强势 据央视新闻，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢说，关于 TikTok 问 题，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺牲原 则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。中美双方就以合 作方式妥善解决 TikTok 相关问题等达成了基本框架共识。8 月社会消费品零售 同比增速放缓至 3.4%，8 月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.2%，装备制造业和高技 术制造业增势较好。1-8 月全国固定资产投资增长 0.5%，制造业投资增长 5.1%。 1-8 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12.9%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4.7%。 重点品种：焦煤、黄金、玻璃 焦煤：昨日夜盘双焦主力合约延续强势，焦煤持仓环比明显增加。从上周公布的 钢联数据来看，累库仍由螺纹贡献、热卷库存环比微幅下降，整体表需环比增加、 增量主要源于热卷，建材与板材之间进一步分化，铁水产量快速恢复，将进一步 加剧成材的供应的压力，叠加第二轮焦炭提降预期的出现、成材利润持续走缩、 以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势形成压力，但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are oscillating and differentiating, with the new - energy sector being structurally strong; treasury bond futures are affected by weak fundamentals and strong risk preferences; precious metals are rising due to concerns about the Fed's independence; and container shipping futures are expected to decline. In the commodity futures market, different metal and agricultural product futures have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, and corresponding investment suggestions are given based on these [2][5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed oscillating differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose. The new - energy sector was hot, and financial stocks adjusted. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts declined. The base difference of the 09 contracts is rapidly repairing. The market is affected by domestic economic data and overseas news. The operation suggestion is to consider the option double - buying strategy if the volatility continues to decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose at the end of the session. The weak economic data in August is favorable for the bond market, but the strong risk preference suppresses long - term bonds. The operation suggestion is to wait and see, pay attention to the capital situation and whether incremental credit - easing policies are introduced [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose. Before the FOMC meeting, Trump's call for a sharp interest - rate cut and the possible confirmation of a cabinet member as a voting member have increased concerns about the Fed's independence and credibility, weakening the US dollar and boosting the prices of precious metals. The future outlook is that the Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and the political turmoil in Europe and the US has increased the demand for precious metals as a hedge [8][9][10]. Container Shipping (European Lines) - The spot prices of container shipping continue to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the Shanghai - Europe freight rate have decreased. The global container capacity has increased year - on - year. The futures price fell, and the spot price has a downward impact on the futures. It is expected that the spot will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price will also decline. The operation suggestion is to short the 10 - contract unilaterally or conduct a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has risen, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 9 - month interest - rate cut is almost certain, which boosts copper prices in the short term. The fundamental situation is "weak reality + stable expectation". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 79500 - 82000 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply pattern is gradually loose. The futures price shows a low - level oscillating trend, presenting a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered in the medium term if the cost support weakens [17][18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price has declined. The supply has increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate around the peak - season expectation and the actual consumption fulfillment. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20600 - 21400 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in September, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton, and a spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price is stable. The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase. The demand is in the peak season, but the domestic and overseas markets are differentiated. The price is expected to oscillate, and the operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [25][26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price has declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The spot price has risen slightly. The macro - environment is improving, and the supply of refined nickel is at a relatively high level. The demand is stable in some areas and weak in others. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price has risen. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the peak - season expectation but has not been significantly released. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 12800 - 13400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price is stable. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is optimistic. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [40][41][43]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price has risen. The cost is affected by factors such as coking coal and iron ore. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a seasonal decline. The price is expected to rise, and the pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3350 yuan/ton and 3500 yuan/ton respectively [44][46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of slight change. The price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, while the spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of medium - level decline. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [51][52][53]. - **Coke**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the second - round price cut by steel mills has been implemented. The supply is increasing, and the demand has support. The inventory is in a state of medium - level increase. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [54][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic soybean meal spot price has declined. The US soybean supply is strong and the demand is weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost. The domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level. The price of the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton [58][59][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The breeding - end slaughter has increased, and the demand is slowly recovering. The supply recovery pattern is clear, and the price is expected to continue to bottom - out [62][63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol price is expected to move within a range, fluctuating with macro - sentiment in the coming week. The short - term主力合约 shows a range - bound pattern with supply - side pressure on the upside and expectations of fundamental improvement and anti - involution policies on the downside [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,396 yuan/ton, up 17 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,386 yuan/ton, up 8; the trading volume was 498,181 lots, an increase of 93,759; the open interest was 783,891 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 16,131 tons with no change; the trading volume was 1,188,647 ten - thousand yuan, up 226,960 ten - thousand yuan; the basis was - 99, up 3; the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 12, down 6. - In the spot market, the Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 15; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,095 yuan/ton, down 10; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,110 yuan/ton with no change; the Shandong price was 2,340 yuan/ton with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2204.81, down 4.06. The Taicang spot price was 2295, up 15, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2112.5, down 10. Among 20 monitored large and medium - sized cities, 4 cities saw price drops of 2.5 - 25 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market had a narrow regional adjustment at the beginning of the week. Affected by macro - policies, methanol futures and spot prices in ports rose slightly. The basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. Some enterprises in the production area had premium transactions in auctions. Considering the upstream supply - demand structure in the inland area is good, the inland market is stronger than the port market [4]. 3.3 Futures Research - The short - term主力合约 is in a range - bound pattern. The upside pressure comes from the high import volume, high daily output, and increased inventory on the supply side. The high port inventory tries to flow back to the inland to relieve pressure. The downside support comes from the expectation of fundamental improvement and the domestic anti - involution policy. The profit of downstream MTO production has improved, and the market expects the methanol fundamentals to improve. The anti - involution policy provides some support for the overall valuation of commodities [4][5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 反内卷预期支撑，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 强预期驱动，焦炭重回强势 | 备注： （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 15 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约强势上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand of industrial silicon has deepened. The resumption of production in the southwest and northern production areas has increased the weekly output to 95,500 tons, and the monthly output is expected to reach 420,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon is optimistically estimated at 145,000 tons, organic silicon at 120,000 tons, and export and alloy demand at 110,000 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 45,000 tons. There is no inventory - reduction drive in the market. Despite fewer industrial policies for industrial silicon compared to polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has been set. The situation of "weak reality + strong policy expectation" makes funds more sensitive to policy drivers. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the intraday price up, but the short - term futures price runs cautiously and strongly under the premium [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.86%. The trading volume was 498,210 lots, and the open interest was 290,948 lots, with a net increase of 12,960 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The price of 553 - grade industrial silicon in Sichuan was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market News - On September 15th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,905 lots, a net decrease of 93 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - The relevant departments are actively promoting industry self - regulation and capacity governance in key industries. In August, the year - on - year decline in ex - factory prices of industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, which is beneficial for prices to return to a reasonable range [5]. - The prices of main products in the industrial chain remained stable. The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 52,000 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC market price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the average market price of organic silicon DMC was 10,730 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [5].

Group 1 - The bond market is facing headwinds due to increased market risk appetite and institutional behavior, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.83% and 2.11% respectively [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face significant upward resistance in the 1.80%-1.85% range, supported by increased market allocation and expectations of central bank operations [3][7] - Demand pressures remain, with weak financing needs and a reasonable liquidity environment providing support for the bond market [3][5] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic data shows a slow transmission of policy expectations to the macroeconomic fundamentals, with inflation levels at a low point and a slight decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing [4][5] - The core CPI has expanded for four consecutive months, indicating that price levels are still at a bottoming stage, while PPI's decline has narrowed, supported by industrial price increases [4] - The central bank's stance on maintaining liquidity remains unchanged, with significant reverse repo operations indicating a continued loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [5][6] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve supply-demand relationships and support PPI stabilization, although the pace of recovery is anticipated to be slow [4][6] - The bond market's pricing is primarily influenced by market risk appetite and institutional behavior, with concerns over bond fund redemptions persisting [7] - The overall trend in the bond yield curve is expected to remain steep, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the bond market despite potential short-term recovery [7]