Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have drawn significant attention from investors, with a notable downward trend observed. The article aims to analyze the underlying factors driving these price movements and their implications for investment decisions. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index influences gold prices, typically leading to price increases when the dollar weakens, as seen in the 2020 dollar depreciation cycle where gold prices rose by 25% [3] - Actual interest rates, based on the yield of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), affect gold prices; a decline in real rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus pushing prices higher. Investors are advised to monitor Federal Reserve policy meetings and CPI data for potential shifts in interest rates [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Local wars and major power rivalries, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trigger demand for safe-haven assets like gold. For instance, gold prices surged over 3% in the first week of the Russia-Ukraine war. The correlation between the fear index (VIX) and gold prices has a historical R² value of approximately 0.6 [5] - A strategy is suggested to buy gold ETFs at the onset of conflicts and gradually reduce holdings as tensions ease [5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been increasing their gold reserves to hedge against dollar risks, with global central bank purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2022, the highest in 55 years. Major buyers include China, India, and Turkey [6] Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - On the supply side, global gold mine production is approximately 3,600 tons annually, with potential short-term supply disruptions due to strikes in major producing regions like South Africa [8] - On the demand side, significant jewelry demand arises during India's wedding season and China's Spring Festival, accounting for 50% of global consumption, while industrial gold usage (e.g., in chip manufacturing) represents about 8% [9] - An investment window is identified for purchasing physical gold or gold stocks 1-2 months before peak consumption seasons [10] Group 5: Technical Signals - Key price levels, such as $2,000 per ounce, serve as psychological resistance points, with potential for accelerated price increases upon breaking through these levels [11] - An increase in net long positions in COMEX gold futures indicates rising bullish sentiment. Suggested tools include MACD crossovers and RSI overbought/oversold signals [12] Group 6: Strategy Toolbox - A dollar-cost averaging strategy is recommended, involving fixed monthly investments in gold ETFs to smooth out price volatility, with historical annualized returns of about 6% over the past decade [13] - A hedging strategy is proposed where gold futures and stocks exhibit a negative correlation of -0.4 during stock market downturns, which can help reduce portfolio risk [14] - Event-driven strategies suggest increasing positions in gold options ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts or geopolitical crises to capture volatility [15]

证券研究报告 基础材料 供需基本面偏强，有色或高位震荡 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 09 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十周） 本周观点：供需基本面偏强，有色或高位震荡 上周美国公布 2 月非农就业人数 15.1 万人，略低于市场预期，失业率 4.1% 环比上升，美国经济边际走弱趋势显现，金价上周企稳回升，基本金属偏强 震荡。基本金属方面，当前绝对价格偏高下，铜、铝消费依旧偏强，国内社 库均转向去库，基本面乐观情况下，预计短期依旧偏强震荡。贵金属方面， 美国经济边际走弱趋势凸显，美联储 25 年降息空间或上升，预计金价短期 震荡偏强。锂方面，根据 SMM 周度库存样本数据，国内库存数据累库，预 期三月下游需求环比恢复或偏弱，我们认为碳酸锂价格或偏弱震荡。 重点公司及动态 1）铜价高位，推荐低估值行业龙头紫金矿业；2）铝加工板块利润受此前 出口退税取消政策影响逐步消除，推荐低估值明泰铝业 子行业观点 1）基本金属：国内库存转向去化，基本金属或偏强震荡；2）贵金属：美 国经济边际走弱，金价或短期偏强震荡；3）稀土：供给端约束预期加强， 稀土价格或偏强震荡；4）锂：上周累库幅度较多，短期预计碳酸锂价格或 偏弱震荡。 ...