1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].

电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铜强铝弱 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价夜盘走强，伦铜拉升至 9700 美元一线。盘后特朗普表示 伊朗和以色列将全面停火，美铜拉升至 5 美分/磅一线。今日午间新 华社快讯:据伊朗新闻电视台报道，伊朗 24 日对以色列发动数轮袭击 后，停火开始。产业层面，23 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.19 万吨， 较上去去库 1.05 万吨。产业补库意愿上升，7-8 月差也有所走强。 此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走强，这说明了海外电解铜 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 伊以冲突缓和，油价挤出地缘溢价。周末美国下场对伊朗核设施进行轰炸， | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 伊朗扬言封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当地时间 23 日，特朗普宣布，以色列和伊 | | | | 朗已同意全面停火，油价大幅回落。当前油价重回供需基本面定价，走势 | | | | 震荡偏弱。策略：短期建议观望，等待地缘风险进一步释放。SC【510-540】 | | | | 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 | | | | 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 | | | | 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4350】 | | | | 地缘降温，社库大幅去化，停车比例升至 19%，华北基差为-54（环比-29）。 | | L | 2024 | 年自伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，进口存缩量 | | | 空头盘整 | 预期。本周检修力度增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

2025 年 06 月 24 日 短纤：地缘降温，产业链压力重回主导 瓶片：地缘降温，产业链压力重回主导 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2507 | 昨日 6922 | 前日 6926 | 变化 -4 | PF07-08 | 昨日 96 | 前日 102 | 变化 -6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6826 | 6824 | 2 | PF08-09 | 102 | 128 | -26 | | | 短纤2509 | 6724 | ୧୧୨୧ | 28 | PF基差 | 89 | 66 | 23 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 283319 | 296360 | -13041 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 915 | 6.890 | 25 | | | 短纤成交量 | 305007 | 324104 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2] - Silver: Continue to surge [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Awaiting direction selection [2] - Alumina: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum alloy: Under pressure [2] - Zinc: Short - term upward movement with position reduction [2] - Lead: Bullish in the medium - term [2] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and smelting end restricts upward elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 781.30, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 86,664 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 3,014 [5]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, and the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 392.59 [5]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8770, with a daily increase of 1.20%. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 53,919 compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 12,761 kg, and the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was 3,741 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,290, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The trading volume of the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 3,657 compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 8,354 tons, and the inventory of London Copper decreased by 3,325 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 280 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,365, down 100 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Aluminum 3M increased by 19,786 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME注销仓单占比 was 5.62%, down 0.52% from the previous day. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 100 [13]. Alumina - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,906. The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased by 11,654 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 58, down 3 from the previous day [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,680, up 40 from the previous day. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract decreased by 1,426 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The spot premium was 160, down 20 from the previous day [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,780, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume of the London Zinc increased by 38 compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,024 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 24.65, up 2.24 from the previous day [16]. - **News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [17]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,920, with a daily increase of 0.65%. The trading volume of the London Lead increased by 157 compared to the previous day [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 100 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 28.49, up 2.72 from the previous day [19]. - **News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [20]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 261,880, with a daily increase of 0.51%. The trading volume of the London Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 32 tons, and the SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 1,500 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [24]. Stainless Steel and Nickel Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,440, down 840 from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 34,478 compared to the previous day [27]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1, and the spread between nickel plate and high - nickel iron was 264 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,390, down 115 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract increased by 55,928 compared to the previous day [27]. - **Industry News**: Some nickel - related projects in Canada, Indonesia, and the Philippines have new developments, and an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance [27][28][30].

伊朗和以色列没有立即对特朗普的声明发表评论。美国副总统万斯说，特朗普总统周一一直在"不停地打电话"，目标是达成一项协议。 就在特朗普宣布这一消息的同时，伊朗媒体报道称德黑兰和其他几个城市发生了强烈爆炸。与此同时，伊朗外交部长阿拉格奇（Abbas Araghchi）表示，德 黑兰并不寻求紧张局势升级，但已准备好应对美国的任何进一步侵略。 特朗普宣布停火后，万斯在接受福克斯新闻采访时说，美国上周末的轰炸已经达到了目的。 万斯说："我们知道他们无法制造核武器，"他补充说，伊朗现有的高浓缩铀库存已被这次袭击"掩埋"。"如果伊朗将来不顾一切地要制造核武器，那么他们 将不得不面对非常、非常强大的美国军队。" 周二亚市盘初，美国总统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。 WTI原油高开后闻讯转跌，截止发稿，短线大跌3%，跌破65美元/桶，隔夜国际油价已经暴跌9%！同时，现货黄金跌破3360美元/盎司，日内跌0.26%。 美股股指期货早盘延续反弹，标普500指数期货涨幅达0.5%，纳指期货上涨0.6%。比特币站上106000美元/枚，日内涨4.99%。 特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia amidst complex geopolitical dynamics and Russia's economic challenges [1][3][4] - In April 2025, Chinese and Russian energy officials met to discuss enhancing energy cooperation, emphasizing the strategic nature of their partnership [3][4] - Russia has increased its oil supply limit to China from 10 million tons to 12.5 million tons, reflecting its reliance on China to alleviate economic pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project faces challenges regarding its route, with considerations of passing through Mongolia or Kazakhstan, both presenting logistical and financial hurdles [4][6] - Mongolia's role in the energy cooperation is complicated by its geopolitical stance, which may affect the stability and cost of energy transit [6][8] - The long-term prospects of Sino-Russian energy cooperation are promising, but require careful navigation of mutual interests and geopolitical factors [8][9]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Group 2: Specific Commodity Movements - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to influence short-term asset pricing and market direction [1] - There are expectations of Iranian responses that could impact energy prices, with a focus on monitoring implied volatility in energy markets and offshore dollar liquidity [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and Investment Trends - International gold prices are stabilizing at high levels, supported by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions and ongoing global central bank gold purchases continue to provide support for gold prices, while silver is affected by fluctuations in manufacturing data [1] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals and Market Dynamics - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with copper prices stabilizing due to tight overseas inventories and ongoing global investment in new energy [1] - Aluminum prices are supported near the cost line for electrolytic aluminum, with market attention on electricity costs and inventory depletion [1] Group 6: Black Metals and Policy Impacts - Steel futures are rebounding, driven by expectations of "stabilizing growth" policies and production restrictions in Tangshan [1] - Iron ore prices are influenced by seasonal rainfall in Brazil, leading to decreased port inventories and price stabilization alongside steel [1] Group 7: Energy Sector Developments - Crude oil futures have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. oil inventories [1] - OPEC+ production cuts are being effectively implemented, with positive expectations for summer oil demand driving prices higher [1] Group 8: Chemical and Agricultural Products - The chemical sector is generally strong, buoyed by rising energy prices, with methanol, PTA, and fuel oil seeing price increases [1] - Agricultural products show a mixed performance, with oilseeds and oils experiencing strength due to domestic production cuts and policy support, while corn faces pressure from import competition [1]

Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]