Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in gold and silver prices, influenced by U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the U.S. dollar, alongside expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Gold Market Insights - On December 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1670%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.5810% [1][4]. - Spot gold experienced a decline of 0.15%, closing at $4190.68 per ounce, after initially dropping by $30 [1][4]. - Spot silver fell by 0.25%, ending at $58.15 per ounce [1][4]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have differing opinions on upcoming decisions, but there is a consensus that a 25 basis point rate cut is expected with a probability of about 100% [1][4]. Gold Price Trends - The gold market opened at $4197.4 per ounce, reached a high of $4219.1, and then fell to a low of $4175.9 before closing at $4190.7 [5][6]. - The daily candlestick formed a spinning top pattern, indicating potential for further price movement [6]. - The market is currently under pressure but remains within a trading range, with resistance levels at $4200-$4220 and support levels at $4175-$4160 [6]. Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25730.39, dipped to $25661.88, peaked at $25824.35, and then fell to a low of $25525.84, closing at $25666.78 [2][6]. - The daily candlestick also formed a spinning top pattern, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [6]. - Despite a drop from recent highs, there are signs of stabilization, with resistance levels at $25739-$25850 and support levels at $25620-$25500 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term adjustment: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - Short-term consolidation: Palm oil [1] - Short-term bullish oscillation: Soybean oil [1] - Range oscillation: Rapeseed oil [1] - Cautiously bullish: Cotton [1] - Short-term rebound: Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: Sino-US soybean procurement has started, but the US market has questioned the optimistic export prospects of US soybeans recently. The weak year-on-year export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at a high level. The latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week-on-week but were higher year-on-year, with short-term supply temporarily sufficient. Before the release of the USDA December report, the market expects the report to be bearish, with the possibility of a month-on-month increase in the global and US soybean ending stocks. Domestic soybean meal fell yesterday. It is expected to remain in a bearish adjustment before the release of the USDA report [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year-on-year. Spot prices are reduced to destock during the off-season. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. The long-term supply and demand are relatively strong, but the near-term port inventory pressure is high. Rapeseed meal followed the decline in soybean meal prices yesterday. The short-term trend is expected to be in the range above 2,270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the USDA December report and the follow-up progress of Sino-Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Palm oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 30 days of November remained weak, and the output decreased slightly month-on-month, with the decline less than that of exports. Floods occurred in Southeast Asia in mid-November, triggering market expectations of palm oil entering the production reduction season. Increased purchases from India boosted market sentiment. The futures price continued to consolidate at a high level after the rebound yesterday. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in November. As the data release approaches, be cautious about chasing long positions at high levels. For phased operations, pay attention to the opportunity to buy at low levels after the adjustment stabilizes [1][8]. - **Soybean oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month-on-month but was still higher than the five-year average. It closed slightly lower yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions of South American soybeans. It is expected to show a large-range trend this week [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory continued to decline month-on-month, but the import sources are diversified, including Australian and Russian rapeseed. The latest data shows that the Canadian rapeseed output in 2025 is higher than market expectations, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil closed lower yesterday. Attention should be paid to the previous low for technical support [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, and Brazil has started the new planting season. The proportion of weather-related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to fluctuate. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and sales have continued to be relatively fast. The circulation of low-basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and cost support has increased. The cash flow of downstream textile enterprises has recovered in recent months, showing demand resilience. The narrowing decline in foreign trade in November further supported cotton prices. However, the upward trend is still restricted by high inventories and a dense hedging pressure area. For operations, consider buying on dips and continue to pay attention to the medium- to long-term moderate recovery opportunity after the supply pressure is digested [1][12]. - **Red dates**: At the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. As the peak season for new product listing and consumption approaches, market volatility will increase. High inventories still put significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the futures market, most of the premium caused by the speculation of a large reduction in new-season red date production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. With the cooling weather, the spot price has stopped falling. Short-term rebound opportunities are worth attention [1][15]. - **Live pigs**: The futures market has rebounded due to disruptions in epidemic prevention and control and macro sentiment, but the above logic has shown differentiation in the price spreads of different contracts. Therefore, the January contract is more likely to be affected by short-term capital. In the January contract, the market has started to price in the expectations of the peak pickling season and the large-scale slaughter at the end of the month, so market volatility is expected to increase. For the January contract, due to expected trading, secondary position limits, and the sentiment influence of the March contract, short-term long positions should be avoided. The March contract lacks fundamental support, but there is intense capital competition. Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity. Also, keep an eye on the spot price and pickling progress [1][18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean meal - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 1.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,107.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a decrease of 206,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.2749 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1552 million tons, a decrease of 184,400 tons or 2.51% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6849 million tons or 30.80% from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons or 3.43% from the previous week and an increase of 481,400 tons or 70.74% from the same period last year [3]. Rapeseed meal - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 1.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,474.74 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, an increase of 10 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Palm oil - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,706 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.57% [7]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, 2025 (week 49), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 683,700 tons, an increase of 30,200 tons or 4.62% from the previous week and an increase of 167,000 tons or 32.32% from the same period last year [8]. Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) was 13,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,009 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.09% [9]. - **Supply and demand data**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress reached 79%, and 1.237 million tons of new cotton had been inspected, with a progress of about 40.2%. In India, the daily new cotton listing was between 16,000 and 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons had been purchased at the MSP. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress was 73.87%, and the non-main producing areas had started sowing the 2026 new cotton. In China, the new cotton picking was almost completed, with more than 4.74 million tons inspected. The new cotton sales progress continued to be relatively fast, and the new-season lint cost was basically locked between 14,600 and 15,000 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red dates - **Price data**: The futures price of the CJ2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common dates was 7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0 yuan or 4.00% [13]. - **Inventory data**: The latest 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory of red dates was 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from the previous week and 270 tons lower than the same period [14]. Live pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2603) closed at 11,385 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan or 2.71% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 11,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.71% [16]. - **Supply and demand data**: In November, the breeding side actively slaughtered, with intense competition. The large-scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and the overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The supply pressure was expected to be gradually released around the Winter Solstice in December. In the medium term, the number of new-born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it was expected to complete the reduction target of 39.5 million by the end of the year. On the demand side, with the cooling weather, the pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions continued to increase, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate, pig - grain ratio, and fresh sales rate stopped falling and rebounded, gradually entering a period of high supply and demand [17].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market showed mixed results with most contracts experiencing declines, particularly in industrial silicon and energy commodities, while polysilicon prices increased by over 2% [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 9, the domestic futures market saw the main contracts mostly decline, with polysilicon rising over 2% and fiberboard and live pigs increasing by more than 1% [2][6]. - In contrast, industrial silicon fell by over 3%, and other commodities such as coke, fuel oil, coking coal, crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and glass dropped by more than 2% [2][6]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - Analysts from Everbright Futures noted that industrial silicon production cuts are not sufficient to match the decline in downstream purchasing, leading to a stagnant trend in the market [4]. - The photovoltaic industry chain continues to experience high inventory levels and reduced production, with a prevailing sentiment of price reductions not spreading upward [4]. - The market has seen some long positions withdraw as exchanges have tightened margin requirements and expanded delivery options, resulting in a gap down for crystalline silicon [4]. - Due to slow growth in near-month positions, the market remains supported despite high volatility, and investors are advised against excessive short selling [4].

社库小幅去化，消费存在刚性 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21920元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21770元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-240元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-195元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-08日沪铝主力合约开于22215元/吨，收于22275元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，最 高价达22290元/吨，最低价达到22035元/吨。全天交易日成交251604手，全天交易日持仓233139手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-08，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化903吨，LME铝库存525800吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-08SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2755元/吨，河南价格录得 282 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 需求有所回升，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11385元/吨，较前交易日变动+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差 LH03-85，较前交易日变动-90；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.40元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+15，较前交易日变动+20；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.46元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+75，较前交易日变动+230。 据农业农村部监测，12月8日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.26，比上周五上升0.48个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为131.98，比上周五上升0.57个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.66元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%； 牛肉66.03元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉62.71元/公斤，比上周五下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.32元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.6%；白条鸡17.26元/公斤，比上周五下降1.3%。 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The port inventory has slightly declined from a high level, but the short - term arrival pressure remains high, with the import pressure in December expected to be the highest of the year. Although Iranian plants have undergone winter maintenance, it will take time for the decline in future arrivals to be reflected. Attention should be paid to when the maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude's MTO is implemented. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production start - up rate is still higher than the same period in previous years. Regarding MTO, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Yangmei's MTO, the low - load operation of Luxi's MTO, and the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The traditional downstream start - up rate has slightly rebounded, with acetic acid start - up remaining at a low level, formaldehyde start - up slightly rebounding in the off - season, and MTBE start - up remaining at a high level [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various basis and inter - period spread charts, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of different regions' spot prices relative to the main futures contract, and spreads between different futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [7][11][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads, such as Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, and FOB US Gulf - CFR China [27][28][34] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes charts on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated plants) [36][37][39] 4. Regional Spreads - It presents charts of regional spreads, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, and other regional spread indicators [41][49][54] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of traditional downstream production profits, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [50][53][58] Market News and Key Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 590 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton). Inner Mongolia's northern line methanol price is 1995 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton), with a basis of 506 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton); the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2230 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), with a basis of 341 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2110 yuan/ton (- 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 221 yuan/ton (- 47 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2175 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 346 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 361,320 tons (- 12,392 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 205,000 tons (- 4,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 239,715 tons (+ 9,005 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 128,500 tons (+ 15,000 tons) [1] - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2080 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 9 yuan/ton (- 17 yuan/ton), CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is - 12 yuan/ton (+ 7 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2325 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 14 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton). Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,349,430 tons (- 14,070 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 703,300 tons (- 44,700 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 235,500 tons (+ 46,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 252,000 tons (- 6,500 tons); the downstream MTO start - up rate is 90.82% (+ 0.89%) [2] - **Regional Spreads**: The Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 55 yuan/ton (+ 33 yuan/ton), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 465 yuan/ton (+ 8 yuan/ton), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 400 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is 50 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton); the Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 285 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - **Inter - period**: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the Comex premium persists, and the inventory levels in Shanghai and London remain relatively low. Coupled with the upcoming Fed rate cut, copper prices may continue to fluctuate in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between RMB 91,500/ton and RMB 92,000/ton, while arbitrage is put on hold and short put options are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 92,520/ton and closed at RMB 92,970/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 92,820/ton and closed at RMB 92,400/ton, down 0.61% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the current 2512 contract was between RMB 20/ton - RMB 240/ton, with an average premium of RMB 130/ton, down RMB 40 from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was between RMB 92,040 - RMB 92,560/ton. The intraday procurement sentiment declined significantly, and the sales sentiment slightly increased, causing the spot premium of Shanghai copper to fall. It is expected that spot transactions will still be at a premium, but as copper prices continue to rise, the number of downstream orders decreases, and the premium is expected to face pressure [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed's December interest rate meeting is approaching. The market generally believes that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. The market will closely watch Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot - plot" of the year. Regarding the rate - cut amplitude and the number of future rate cuts, Hassett, a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, believes that data should be closely monitored, and actions should be taken prudently [3]. Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Due to the government shutdown, the collection of October data is delayed. According to its website, the Bureau plans to announce the October data together in the November 2025 PPI press release on January 14, 2026 [3]. Mining End - On December 5, Askari Metals announced a successful fundraising of $1.15 million and appointed a new director to accelerate its mineral exploration projects in Ethiopia and Namibia. The funds will be mainly used for the exploration of two core projects: the Nejo copper - gold project in Ethiopia and the Uis lithium - tin - tantalum - rubidium project in Namibia. On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [4]. Smelting and Imports - On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. LME copper inventory increased last week, reaching a six - month high on December 4 and then slightly declining, with the latest inventory at 162,550 tons. SHFE copper inventory continued to decline last week, falling 9.22% to 88,905 tons, a three - month low. International copper inventory decreased by 573 tons to 11,504 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high at 436,853 tons [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the State Grid's December tender volume decreased by 20% month - on - month. After copper prices exceeded RMB 91,000/ton, cable enterprises only fulfilled previous long - term orders. The new tender price transmission coefficient was only 0.6, and some enterprises replaced copper cables with aluminum cables, with the estimated substitution ratio rising to 8%. In the home appliance sector, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners was reduced by 6%, and copper tube procurement was based on "production according to sales". The copper material procurement volume of Midea and Gree in December decreased by 12% month - on - month. The demand for copper strips in refrigerators and microwaves increased slightly due to good export orders. In the automotive sector, the copper consumption of new energy vehicles continued to increase, with a per - vehicle copper consumption of 83 kg and an 11 - month production increase of 35% year - on - year, offsetting the decline of traditional vehicles. However, high - voltage wiring harness enterprises, due to copper accounting for more than 60% of costs, have jointly applied to vehicle manufacturers for a price - linkage mechanism, otherwise they will reduce production to ensure profits. Photovoltaic and data centers have become new highlights. Morgan Stanley predicts that the copper demand of data centers in 2026 will be 475,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%, but high copper prices have forced some projects to postpone tenders, slowing the short - term demand pace [5][6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 164,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. On December 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, an increase of 1400 tons compared with the previous week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of PVC and caustic soda is weak, with cost support emerging in the PVC market and caustic soda prices continuing to decline [1][3] - For PVC, pay attention to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics; for caustic soda, focus on liquid chlorine price trends and caustic soda device dynamics [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4431 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 41 yuan/ton (-25), and the South China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (-45) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4390 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4410 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2905 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 25 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 1019 yuan/ton (-139), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 472 yuan/ton (-8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.4 dollars/ton (+6.3) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory is 32.6 tons (+0.3), social inventory is 52.9 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 82.09% (-0.12%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.92% (+0.80%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.01% (+0.16%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.8 tons (+2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract of caustic soda is 2124 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 95 yuan/ton (-87) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 710 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1180 yuan/ton (-20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1198 yuan/ton (-63); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 593.8 yuan/ton (-62.5); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 513.21 yuan/ton (-92.50); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 399.00 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 50.48 tons (+3.50), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.37 tons (+0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate is 86.00% (+1.00%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of alumina is 86.20% (+0.14%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 64.46% (-1.06%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 91.29% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is abundant with only one enterprise planning maintenance this week, but some enterprises may cut production due to low prices [3] - Downstream demand is weak with stable film production and declining pipe and profile production, and rigid procurement [3] - Upstream production profits are at a low level year - on - year, and the cost of calcium carbide has increased [3] - The number of PVC futures warehouse receipts is at a high level, and the export profit has decreased [3] Caustic Soda - Spot prices have fallen due to lower purchase prices from Shandong downstream enterprises [3] - Supply is increasing with reduced enterprise maintenance and new production capacity coming on - stream [3] - Demand is weak with some alumina plants reducing purchases and non - aluminum demand turning weak in the off - season [3] - Inventory is accumulating, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a low level [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Cautiously bearish, with limited downside space [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Cross - variety Trading**: No strategy [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side Trading**: Cautiously bearish, with limited downside space [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - **Cross - variety Trading**: No strategy [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of propylene remains loose, and the cost - side support is limited. The overall propylene start - up continues at a high level, but the downstream start - up weakens. The price rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term, waiting for marginal device maintenance [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 5819 yuan/ton (+1), the spot price in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+10), and in North China is 6090 yuan/ton (+40). The basis in East China is 181 yuan/ton (+9), and in North China is 125 yuan/ton (+19). The start - up rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 187 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 54 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 353 yuan/ton (-10), and the in - plant inventory is 47890 tons (-1080) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The start - up rate of PP powder is 40% (-1.98%), and the production profit is - 340 yuan/ton (-40); the start - up rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+1%), and the production profit is - 190 yuan/ton (-93); the start - up rate of n - butanol is 74% (-8%), and the production profit is 442 yuan/ton (-45); the start - up rate of octanol is 74% (-7%), and the production profit is 693 yuan/ton (-29); the start - up rate of acrylic acid is 78% (+1%), and the production profit is 415 yuan/ton (-7); the start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is - 606 yuan/ton (-78); the start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 82% (+1%), and the production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (-150) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: Dongguan Juzhengyuan and Shandong Binhuahua's PDH devices are expected to restart. The phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance is not obvious, and the overall propylene start - up continues at a high level. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device has not restarted yet. The external sales volume of propylene products may continue to increase [2] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream start - up weakens. Considering the rising propylene price and the pressure on downstream profits, the price difference between PP and propylene narrows. Downstream is resistant to high - priced raw materials. Some main powder devices reduce the load or stop. The start - up of the main downstream PP powder decreases month - on - month. The profit of propylene oxide is acceptable, and the downstream is mainly for phased replenishment. Affected by the maintenance of Luxi and Satellite's butanol and octanol devices, the start - up rate of butanol and octanol decreases significantly. In the later stage, the downstream cost pressure still restricts the recovery of demand [2] - **Cost side**: International oil prices tend to fluctuate, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The price of external propane has been strong recently. Pay attention to the cost - side disturbances recently [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Due to insufficient supply - demand drive, the rebound space may be limited. It will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term, waiting for marginal device maintenance [2] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided 3.4 Directory - related Charts - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes charts such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, etc. [3][5][7] - **Propylene production profit and start - up rate**: Includes charts such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, etc. [3][15][17] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Includes charts such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, etc. [3][27][28] - **Propylene downstream profit and start - up rate**: Includes charts such as PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, etc. [3][35][36] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes charts such as propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [3][61][62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation may not be too loose after the seasonal pressure, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills at the beginning of the crushing season have the willingness to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of the capital side on the market should be noted [7] - **Pulp**: Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side may limit the upward space of pulp prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market [10] Group 3: Summary by Cotton - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,847 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,009 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Export: In October, Australia's cotton export volume was about 206,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative export volume was about 549,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China was the largest export destination, accounting for 32.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA significantly increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, while the consumption only slightly increased, leading to a significant rise in the global ending inventory. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased, and there is a possibility of export target reduction. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. With the approaching end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak, but the improvement of spinning profit limits the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound, and optimistic in the long - term after seasonal pressure. Focus on the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Summary by Sugar - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5337 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Export: Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar and molasses in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - Sugar mill operation: From December 6th to 8th, 6 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 55 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, 13 less than the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: The global high - yield pattern suppresses the raw sugar market, but the downward space is limited in the short - term, and there is no sign of reversal in the short - and medium - term [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high. The control of syrup has become stricter, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term decline is limited, but the impact of the capital side should be noted [7] Group 5: Summary by Pulp - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5392 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed a paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will have a temporary shutdown [9] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. In China, there is over - capacity in the paper industry, low paper mill operating rates, and high port inventories [9] Strategy - Neutral. The upward space of pulp prices may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts [10]