Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong performance, rebounding to around $3,646 after a slight decline to $3,632.49, following a record high of $3,674.36 earlier in the week, marking a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and U.S. economic data expectations [1] - The U.S. bond and stock markets have reacted positively, reinforcing the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a five-month low of 3.994% and closing at 4.015%, while the two-year yield fell to 3.531% [1] - The market anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.4% over the next decade, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, providing a favorable environment for gold as an inflation hedge [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 2.9% year-over-year, the highest in seven months, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [3] - The CPI's month-over-month increase of 0.4% exceeded expectations, and the core CPI remained at a high of 0.3%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures despite signs of economic slowdown [3] - The significant rise in jobless claims and the lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase of 22,000 jobs highlight a cooling economic momentum, which has overshadowed inflation concerns and supported gold prices [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The consensus in the market indicates a 100% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates and positive outlook on the Eurozone economy has weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [4] - Overall, the gold market demonstrates resilience amid economic data and policy expectations, with soft labor market data, a weaker dollar, and optimistic responses from the bond and stock markets providing solid support for gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small entity close, indicating strength, with a potential continuation of upward momentum if the price breaks above $3,660 [7] - Short-term movements suggest a recovery from a high of $3,675, with indications of stability and potential upward movement in the current trading session [7] - Traders are advised to monitor key levels around $3,638/$3,630 for potential long positions, with targets set at $3,660 and $3,690 [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with social inventories starting to decline. Macro factors drive the upward trend of aluminum prices, and there are few negative micro - factors. Consumption is showing signs of improvement, and aluminum prices may see a resonance upward trend [6]. - The alumina market still has an oversupply situation, but the current price has reached the marginal production cost. There are factors such as mine price support and north - to - south transportation, but there is no clear upward drive, so the price is treated neutrally [8]. - The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, with cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities as the 11 - contract turns into a peak - season contract [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On September 11, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,740 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 120 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,810 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,780 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,920 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,885 lots, and the open interest was 204,582 lots [2]. Alumina Spot - On September 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,005 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,230 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 338 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 11, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,923 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,945 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.79% change). The highest price was 2,962 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,923 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 249,216 lots, and the open interest was 273,311 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - On September 11, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,000 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,200 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 27 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Although the strong - side oscillation of aluminum prices suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the transition from the off - season to the peak season is a fact. Spot discounts are slightly repaired, and social inventories enter the destocking cycle. Macro factors drive the price increase, and there are few negative micro - factors. Supply remains unchanged, consumption shows improvement, and downstream processing enterprises' production and operating rates increase [6]. Alumina - The latest transaction in Western Australia shows a decline in price. The oversupply pattern remains, but the price has reached the marginal production cost. There is support from the mine end, and the north - to - south transportation keeps the southern price firm, but there is no clear upward drive [8]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, the price fluctuates with the aluminum price, there is supply tension of scrap and raw aluminum, and there is cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10]. Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Group 1 - China Hongqiao's stock price increased by over 6%, currently up 5.74% at HKD 26.52, with a trading volume of HKD 565 million [1] - On September 11, London base metals rose across the board, with LME aluminum up 2.06% at USD 2,679.00 per ton [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 are strong, with an increased probability for a 50 basis point cut, leading to a weaker dollar and higher aluminum prices [1] Group 2 - China Hongqiao is a leading integrated electrolytic aluminum producer with significant advantages in bauxite resource layout and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company benefits from low coal prices, enhancing its cost advantages amid rising dependence on imported bauxite in China [1] - Expectations for increased profit from rising equity capacity and a new supply-demand balance as domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity approaches its ceiling support a bullish outlook for aluminum prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) saw a significant intraday increase of over 6%, closing up 5.74% at HKD 26.52, with a trading volume of HKD 565 million [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - On September 11, London base metals experienced a broad increase, with LME aluminum rising by 2.06% to USD 2,679.00 per ton [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a strong market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of its meeting on September 17, with an increased probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The anticipation of rate cuts is contributing to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - There is a gradual recovery in downstream demand, coupled with market expectations for a peak season, which is likely to create a positive feedback loop for aluminum prices [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlights that China Hongqiao has significant integrated advantages as an electrolytic aluminum producer, with a leading position in overseas bauxite resource allocation and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company benefits from a low dependency on imported bauxite amid rising domestic reliance, along with low coal prices enhancing its cost advantages [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in the company's equity production capacity is expected to bolster profits [1] - With domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its ceiling, a new supply-demand dynamic is expected to drive aluminum prices upward [1] - Minsheng Securities asserts that with the Fed's clear rate cut in September and aluminum capacity reaching its limits, long-term value for the company is promising [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For gold, the US CPI was in line with expectations, leading to a sideways movement in gold prices. Although the expectation of a Fed rate - cut has increased as the September Fed meeting approaches, the upward momentum of gold prices is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has significantly converged to -4.5 yuan/gram. Gold prices remain strong but there is a risk of an early decline if the rate - cut is implemented next week [4]. - For silver, with the US CPI in line with expectations, risk appetite has increased, causing silver prices to rebound. As the September Fed meeting nears and the rate - cut expectation rises, risk appetite remains strong, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver is maintained at around 366 yuan/kg [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US CPI was in line with expectations, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US CPI was in line with expectations, risk appetite increased, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.28 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 4200 kg to 50151 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -28 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 11983 kg to 1240187 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held at Shougang Park, and BYD Yangwang U8L Ding Shi Edition will be launched. - 11:40: Speech by Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jones. - 14:00: UK GDP for July and final German CPI for August. - 15:00: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member, Escrivá. - 16:00: Speeches on monetary policy by European Central Bank Governing Council members, Rehn and Kohler. - 16:15: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and President of the German Bundesbank, Nagel. - 18:30: Announcement of the interest rate decision by the Central Bank of Russia, followed by a press conference on monetary policy by Governor Nabiullina. - 22:00: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September. - Saturday: Circuit breaker test in the US New York Stock Exchange [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, making them still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 3903 to 247,884, the short position increased by 1746 to 84,143, and the net position decreased by 5649 to 163,741. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings have started to decrease [31][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 4432 to 361,896, the short position decreased by 5047 to 242,218, and the net position increased by 615 to 119,678. The silver ETF holdings continue to decrease but are higher than the same period in the past two years [32][37].

本周锌价窄幅震荡。供应端，国产TC小幅下降，进口TC进一步上升。9月检修集中冶炼产量环比小幅下滑，海外季度矿 端增量超预期，7月我国锌矿进口超50万吨，近三年最高，预计三季度整体进口矿量都偏高位。需求端内雲季节性疲 软，难见增长但往下亦有一定韧性;海外，欧洲需求一般，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一定阻力。国内，社库震 荡上升。海外LME库存去化较快，主要流向欧美，显性库存已接近近两年低位，当前外强内弱格局可能进一步分化。策 略方面，短期受降息预期及国内商品情绪支撑影响，中长期空头配置;内外方面.。内外正套可继续持有;月差方面，可留 意10-12正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/09/05 57.0 - 119750 2050 350 2025/09/08 57.0 - 120450 2150 300 2025/09/09 57.0 - 120200 2200 300 2025/09/10 57.0 - 119450 2200 300 2025/09/11 57.0 - 119600 2250 300 变化 0.0 - 150 50 0 日期 现货 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts in the US, driven by soft labor data and inflation figures that align with forecasts [1][8][12] - A significant trade agreement between the US and Taiwan is anticipated, which could impact market dynamics positively [8][12] Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.65% to 3875.31 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.15% [1] - The Hong Kong market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.43% at 26086.32 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.24% [1][5] - European and US markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.36% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.85%, both reaching historical highs [1][12] Economic Indicators - The US core CPI rose by 0.3% in August, meeting expectations, while the overall CPI increased by 0.4%, marking the largest rise since the beginning of the year [12] - Initial jobless claims in the US surged to nearly a four-year high, indicating potential increases in layoffs [12][16] - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, signaling a balanced economic growth outlook and controlled inflation [12] Company-Specific Developments - UBS raised the target price for Dongfeng Motor Group by 102% to HKD 10.5, citing potential privatization and stock distribution of its Voyah brand [10] - Hesai Technology plans to go public in Hong Kong with a share price set at HKD 212.8, aiming to raise over HKD 36 billion [10] - Jingfang Pharmaceutical is set to launch an IPO with a share price of HKD 20.39, targeting a total fundraising of approximately HKD 15.82 billion [10] Industry Trends - China General Nuclear Power's electricity generation in August fell by 5.7% year-on-year, with mixed performance across its various energy projects [13] - Huatai Securities successfully issued a secondary bond worth RMB 2 billion, indicating strong investor interest [13] - GIC increased its stake in Haitian Flavoring and Food Company to 11.07%, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects [13]