Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has aggressively raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver $100 per ounce within the next three months due to escalating geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Price Predictions - Citigroup's analysts have increased the gold price target from $4,200 to $5,000 per ounce and silver from $62 to $100 per ounce in a bullish scenario [2]. - The report highlights strong investment momentum and suggests that favorable factors may continue into the first quarter [2]. - The ongoing physical shortages, particularly for silver and platinum group metals, may worsen in the short term due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Constraints - The core logic behind Citigroup's price increase is the resonance between supply constraints and safe-haven demand, with analysts noting that physical shortages are unlikely to ease soon [3]. - The bank's baseline scenario assumes that if geopolitical risks in Venezuela, Iran, and Ukraine ease later this year, it could pressure hedging demand, particularly for gold [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Consensus - Major investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, have formed a broad consensus on the long-term bullish sentiment for gold, with Morgan Stanley raising its Q4 2026 gold price target to $4,800 [4]. - JPMorgan's forecast is even more optimistic, predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 by Q4 2026 and potentially $6,000 in the long term [6]. Group 4: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - ING analysts emphasize that central bank gold purchases and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide a solid foundation for rising gold prices [7]. - A weak U.S. dollar, which has declined approximately 9% in 2025, is identified as a key macro factor supporting gold price increases [7]. Group 5: Silver and Base Metals Performance - Silver has shown remarkable performance, with a 147% increase in 2025, marking its strongest annual gain on record [8]. - The outlook for silver remains constructive for 2026, supported by industrial demand from solar panels and battery technologies, along with continued investment inflows [9]. - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about aluminum and copper, which face supply constraints amid rising demand [10].

特朗普自称委内瑞拉代总统 当地时间1月12日，美国国务院要求美国公民立即离开伊朗。制定不依赖美国政府协助的离境计划；如无法离境，留在住所或其他安全建筑内，并储备食 物、水、药品及其他生活必需品；避免参加任何示威活动。 此举被普遍解读为地区冲突风险急剧升温的信号。此前已有消息称，特朗普听取了有关军事打击伊朗方案的汇报。 同日，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其对美所有贸易将面临25%的关税，该命令立即生效。这一举措标志着美国对伊朗的经 济围堵进入前所未有的严厉阶段。 业内专家警告，如果特朗普进一步采取针对伊朗的行动，那么伊朗可能将封锁霍尔木兹海峡，从而导致全球近三分之一的原油运输瘫痪。Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andy Lipow表示，对霍尔木兹海峡关闭的担忧会使油价每桶上涨几美元，而如果海峡完全关闭，油价可能会飙升10到20美元。 近日，美国总统特朗普通过升级对伊制裁、在委内瑞拉问题上进一步表态，以及美联储独立性风波持续发酵，再次将全球地缘政治与经济稳定性推向紧张边 缘。市场对此反应剧烈，避险资产黄金、白银价格飙升。 对伊极限施压：要求美公民立即撤离 特朗普阵营也出现分 ...

世界黄金协会：受益地缘局势支撑 金价突破4770美元之前都未超买 Solomon Global：金银价格或在2026年上半年分别触及每盎司5000美元和100美元 转自：新华财经 光大期货：市场对美联储独立性再次担忧 黄金短期热度难以下降 金瑞期货：金银当前处于高波动状态 价格整体呈现宽幅震荡 新湖期货：去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行 【机构观点分析】 光大期货表示，近期美最高法将对特朗普政府征收关税合法性作出裁决，特朗普近日频繁表达对高法关 税裁决结果的担忧；美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查，市场对美联储独立性再次担忧，此 前热门人选哈塞特表示他尊重美联储独立性但质疑美联储政策拖累经济增长。另外，地缘政治成为短期 焦点，美委冲突成为开端，格陵兰岛局势及伊朗局势再次引起全球投资者对地缘政治频繁冲突的不安， 黄金短期热度难以下降。黄金维持强势下，其他贵金属依然保持偏强走势，铂钯有望后期继续补涨，白 银短线存在较高风险，谨慎参与。 金瑞期货表示，当前地缘局势持续紧张，美国方面联储新任主席提名人公布在即，全面关税面临最高法 院裁决；市场不确定性加剧。白银方面，市场投资需求有韧性，库存保持 ...

11:05 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1070.8 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间: 2026-01- 1,080 1.070 1.060 1,050 1,040 1.030 2025-10-30 2025-11-17 2025-12-05 2025-12-26 EBC黄金属于持仓报告解读 截至1月12日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1070.80吨，较前一个交易日大幅增加6.24吨。1月12日，现货黄金再度飙涨，盘中更是一度冲 破4600美元/盎司，最高触及4629.93美元/盎司，创下历史新高，收于4597.21美元/盎司，涨87.87美元/1.95%。 基本面消息，受到地缘政治风险持续，再加上美联储独立性担忧加剧，现货黄金周一大幅拉升，并且在冲破4600美元关口之后，持稳于历史高位附近。据媒 体报道，美国司法部正在审查美联储总部翻修项目，重点调查鲍威尔是否在参议院银行委员会就该项目的规模、成本以及奢华配置等问题作出了误导性或虚 假陈述。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，针对他的刑事起诉威胁是央行基于对公共利益的最佳评估而非 ...

【要闻速递】 匈牙利外长西雅尔多12日表示，若英国和法国向乌克兰派遣军队，将给北约带来与俄罗斯发生直接冲突 的严重风险。作为乌克兰的邻国，匈牙利存在被拖入战争的可能性。 欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯12日表示，如丹麦提出请求，欧盟可为格陵兰岛提供安全支持。他同 时警告，若美国以军事手段夺取格陵兰岛，将意味着北约"走向终结"。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1035附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1027.68元/克，涨 幅1.06%，最高触及1035.34元/克，最低下探1025.10元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 格陵兰岛自治政府12日发布声明，强调在任何情况下都无法接受美国接管。声明指出，格陵兰岛是丹麦 王国的一部分，也是北约的一部分，其防务应通过北约来实现。格陵兰岛自治政府将与丹麦一道，推动 在北约框架内开展防务事务。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约AU2602于2026年1月12日强势上行，日内最高触及1031.30元/克，收盘报1024.78元/克，涨 幅2.36%，创历史新高，受中东与俄乌地缘紧张及美联储降息预期升温（12月非 ...

花旗集团激进上调贵金属短期展望，在牛市情景下，预计未来3个月内金价将冲至5000美元/盎司，白银 达100美元/盎司。这一预测基于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺及美联储政策不确定性。与此同时，摩根 士丹利与摩根大通等华尔街投行亦维持长期看涨共识。 华尔街大行再掀贵金属看涨潮，花旗集团激进上调短期目标价，直指金价5000美元大关。 据花旗集团最新发布的报告，鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及市场对美联储独立性再次出现不确 定性，该行大幅上调了对贵金属的短期展望。包括Max Layton在内的分析师团队在电邮报告中表示，在 牛市情景下，将未来0-3个月的目标价从每盎司4200美元上调至5000美元，目标价则从每盎司62美元大 幅上调至100美元。 华尔街共识：涨势未尽 主要投行对黄金的长期看涨情绪已形成广泛共识。摩根士丹利在最新预测中，将2026年第四季度的金价 目标设定为4800美元，较此前2025年10月设定的4400美元预测有显著上调。该行指出，投资者不仅将黄 金视为通胀对冲工具，更将其作为观察央行政策与地缘政治风险的"晴雨表"。 摩根大通的预测则更为乐观。该行预计到2026年第四季度金价将达到5000美元，长 ...

兴业证券此前研报指出，万国黄金集团成长性和盈利能力占优。公司主要增量来自于金岭矿业，所罗门 金矿选厂已启动1000万吨/年新建计划，紫金赋能工程建设，投产后采选规模将从目前的350万吨/年增 至1350万吨/年，预计于2028年建成投产，估计黄金年产量有望达到15吨，打造成为世界级金矿。 消息面上，受地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺及美联储政策不确定性影响，周一，国际现货黄金历史性突 破4600美元/盎司。花旗激进上调贵金属短期展望，在牛市情景下，预计未来3个月内金价将冲至5000美 元/盎司，白银达100美元/盎司。摩根士丹利与摩根大通等华尔街投行亦维持长期看涨共识。 智通财经APP获悉，万国黄金集团(03939)早盘涨近7%，月内累计涨幅已超30%。截至发稿，涨5.54%， 报10.09港元，成交额1.97亿港元。 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn ...

1月13日，受隔夜金价走强催化，黄金有色相关产品表现强势，截至9:45，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨 0.15%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨3.22%，其持仓股明牌珠宝涨停，山金国际、湖南白银、晓程科技均涨 超7%，万国黄金集团、潮宏基、白银有色等股纷纷走强，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.34%。 消息面上，上周前期美国公布的经济数据强弱均现，没有显著提振货币政策预期，周五晚间非农就业数 据降低1月份降息概率。美联储现任主席遭到调查，加剧美联储独立性担忧，推动贵金属价格偏多运 行。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 锦泰期货分析指出，美国2025年12月非农就业数据显著弱于预期，新增非农就业人数不及市场预测，叠 加前期数据下修，强化了市场对美联储2026年开启降息周期的定价。加上当前中东局势紧张、北极地区 军事部署导致地缘政治风险升级，市场避险情绪急剧升温。中长期看，美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate and move upward as the market continues to price in geopolitical risks [1] - The absolute prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are likely to follow the oil price fluctuations, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing greater subsequent supply - demand pressure [2] - The asphalt market is expected to be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation", with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - Polyester prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices [3] - Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3] - Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the current tense situation in Iran potentially increasing its volatility [5] - Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom, with inventory expected to rise gradually from late January [5] - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the 05 contract showing a structure of weak reality and strong expectation [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI February contract rose $0.38 to $59.50 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent March contract rose $0.53 to $63.87 per barrel (0.84% increase), and SC2602 fell 0.3 yuan to 435.4 yuan per barrel (0.07% decrease). Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. The price center of oil is expected to oscillate upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 fell 1.32% to 2461 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.93% to 3026 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market will have sufficient supply in the short - term, while the high - sulfur market has some support. With Venezuelan heavy crude entering the market, it may be negative for relevant spreads. Short - term prices are expected to follow oil prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 fell 0.25% to 3157 yuan per ton. Due to the Venezuelan situation, the expectation of tight processing raw materials strengthens cost - side support, and refinery supply decreases. The market is expected to be in a game between weak demand and strong cost expectation, with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 0.67% to 5142 yuan per ton, EG2605 rose 0.36% to 3880 yuan per ton, and the PX futures contract 603 rose 0.97% to 7308 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were moderately good. Some devices had changes. The market is in a game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices, with prices expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. The supply of ethylene glycol is still abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 100 yuan to 16130 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 60 yuan to 13010 yuan per ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. In the United States, tire imports from different countries had different changes. In December 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year. The rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3][5] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2260 yuan per ton. In January, the arrival volume will decline significantly, and the MTO device load will also decrease. The port will face de - stocking pressure. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the Iranian situation potentially increasing volatility [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6350 - 6500 yuan per ton. In January, the supply may decrease slightly, and demand is expected to recover in the first half of the month but weaken in the second half due to the Spring Festival. Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom [5][7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China had different adjustments. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will put pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7] Daily Data Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Oman crude was 426.82 yuan per barrel on January 12, the futures price of SC was 435.70 yuan per barrel, the basis was - 8.88 yuan per barrel, and the basis rate was - 2.04% [8] - **Other Varieties**: Similar data on spot prices, futures prices, basis, and basis rates are provided for various energy - chemical products such as liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] Market News - Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports during the anti - government protests offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. Iran is in communication with the US, and Trump is considering how to respond to the protests in Iran [10] - After the Venezuelan president was taken away by the US, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon. Trump said Venezuela will transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and oil companies are preparing for transportation [10] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis data for main contracts of different products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over different time periods [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts illustrate the production profits of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [66][68] Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards, and has served many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Research Director of Energy and Chemicals. She has a background in finance, has won many industry awards, and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [72] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards in the industry and is good at data analysis [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, etc. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [74]