Core Insights - LME copper prices have surpassed $10,000, indicating strong demand in the futures market [1] - However, the spot premium has plummeted by 85%, suggesting a disconnect between futures and spot market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in LME copper prices reflects bullish sentiment among investors, likely driven by expectations of increased demand [1] - The drastic decline in spot premiums indicates that the current market is trading on different logic, possibly influenced by supply chain issues or inventory levels [1] Group 2: Implications for Investors - The contrasting trends between futures and spot prices may present both opportunities and risks for investors looking to navigate the copper market [1] - Understanding the underlying factors contributing to the price movements is crucial for making informed investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has rapidly diminished due to the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to a collective decline in the prices of energy chemical products, including synthetic rubber [1][2]. Group 1: Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials for synthetic rubber are butadiene and styrene, both derived from the oil refining process. Butadiene accounts for 95% of the cost structure of polybutadiene rubber, while it constitutes about 70% and styrene about 30% in styrene-butadiene rubber [2]. - Following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices experienced significant volatility, with domestic SC crude oil futures rising approximately 22% [2]. - The announcement of a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to a rapid decline in the crude oil geopolitical risk premium, resulting in a significant weakening of cost support for synthetic rubber [2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - Recent data indicates a slight recovery in the production of polybutadiene rubber, with upstream theoretical production profits rising to 2,101 yuan per ton, an increase of 167 yuan per ton month-on-month [3]. - The operating rate of domestic polybutadiene rubber facilities in East and South China has slightly increased, contributing to a rise in production and capacity utilization [3]. - As of the week ending June 27, the capacity utilization rate for the polybutadiene rubber industry in China was 68.54%, up by 2.22 percentage points, with weekly production reaching 27,500 tons, an increase of 3.34% [3]. Group 3: Demand from Tire Industry - The primary downstream application for polybutadiene rubber is the tire industry, with approximately 2.16 kg used per full steel tire and 0.9 kg per semi-steel tire [4]. - As summer approaches, the automotive market enters a consumption lull, leading to a slowdown in tire procurement by manufacturers. Consequently, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 70.40%, while full steel tire manufacturers saw a slight increase of 0.84 percentage points to 62.23% [4]. - The increase in finished tire inventory and the decline in capacity utilization have negatively impacted the demand for polybutadiene rubber [4].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 2, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 98.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment has become more relaxed at the beginning of the month, with the overnight pledged repo rate slightly declining to 1.36%, and the 7-day pledged repo rate decreasing by 4 basis points [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.45% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.61%, showing little change from the previous day [6] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: the 30-year main contract rose by 0.40%, the 10-year by 0.14%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [10] Group 5: Policy Developments - A joint plan was issued by the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China and ten other departments to enhance financial services for the elderly economy, aiming to increase financial supply and diversify funding sources [11] - Hunan Province has introduced measures to optimize the business environment, including a debt repayment reform to clear inter-company debts by 2027 [11] Group 6: Global Macro Insights - A report from the Dutch bank indicates that the rise in bond term premiums is a global phenomenon, with significant increases noted in both the U.S. and Germany due to fiscal policy concerns and economic stimulus plans [13] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a new government debt limit of 125.9 billion yuan for Shaanxi Province for 2025 [15] - Sichuan Province is actively seeking central budget investments and long-term special bonds to support key investment areas [15] - Citic Securities has received approval to issue up to 20 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds to professional investors [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Insights 1. Asia FX Volatility Strategies - Recommendations include selling USDCNH risk reversals, buying USDKRW puts, and selling USDTWD call spreads. [1][2] - Specific trades suggested: - Sell 6m USDCNH 25d RR at 0.25% and 1y USDCNH 25d RR at 0.55% [3][4] - Buy 3m USDKRW 1350 EKO at 33 bps [4] - Buy 3m USDSGD 1.24 digi put at 11.20% [4] - Sell 3m USDTWD 30.25/31.00 call spread for 46.3 bps [4] - Buy 1y 82 USDINR Digi Put at 9.2% [4] 2. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) - 30-year JGB yields have risen sharply, now above German bund yields, indicating a lack of demand for long-duration bonds [7][8][12]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal position are growing, with calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of elections [7][8]. - The market is expected to see increased ultra-long inventories, but foreign demand remains weak [9][11]. 3. China Trade Optimism - Recent headlines suggest that US-China trade optimism may have peaked [15][19]. - G7 countries are discussing tariffs on low-value goods from China, which could negatively impact trade [16][17]. - China's response to US restrictions on Huawei chips has intensified, indicating a tougher stance [18]. 4. Taiwan Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Implications - Taiwan's SWF aims to invest overseas to enhance government income and support national security and infrastructure [27]. - The SWF's launch is linked to Taiwan's involvement in the Alaska gas project, capped at 50% of an estimated US$44 billion investment [27]. - Potential funding sources for the SWF include government-issued bonds and fiscal surpluses [28]. 5. Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Movements - The HKMA has noted recent strengthening of the HKD and discussed liquidity injections following the LERS trigger [32][33]. - The HKMA emphasizes that lower yields are beneficial for the Hong Kong economy, with low chances of intervention unless the HKD hits 7.85 [33]. Additional Important Insights - The CFETS index has shown volatility, reflecting US-China trade talk optimism followed by declines [26]. - The PBoC may resist large RMB appreciation to protect exporter margins and employment [20][23]. - Taiwanese exporters have been asked to limit daily USD sales, indicating central bank intervention in the FX market [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and potential impacts on the respective markets.

Group 1 - The global bond term premium is rising, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rate risks and economic policy uncertainties, with Japan's 10-year bond term premium increasing by over 40 basis points since early last year [1] - In Germany, the term premium has also risen over the past two years due to the need to absorb the impact of the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction and increased government stimulus plans [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that since late April, the market has begun to bet more aggressively on the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies, although any deterioration in U.S. economic growth and employment data could reignite growth concerns [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it has not reached alarm levels, with expectations of a moderate slowdown in the labor market maintaining job growth around 100,000 [2] - UBS economists highlight early indicators of a weak U.S. job market, with rising unemployment claims and predictions of only 100,000 new jobs in June [2] - The National Australia Bank suggests that increasing government spending beyond fiscal capacity may undermine market confidence in the U.S. dollar, contributing to its decline [2] Group 3 - Analysts from the Netherlands International Group state that the Bank of England's potential slowdown in quantitative tightening seems to support the British pound, reducing the risk of further depreciation [2] - The South Korean inflation rate is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's 2% target, allowing for a cautious monetary policy approach focused on financial stability [2] - South Korea's overall consumer inflation rate rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above market expectations, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [2] Group 4 - Phillip Nova's analysis suggests that a weaker U.S. dollar may extend upward momentum in oil prices, despite the market already digesting production increase news [3] - Nomura's economists note that South Korea's strong exports and increased fiscal spending plans may alleviate concerns about economic growth, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting [3] - The median wage growth among major employers in the UK increased from 3.2% to 3.4%, with a significant impact on the service sector, while manufacturing was less affected [3]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 1,883.5 | -21.4 | -1.12% | 44,193.0 | -35.80% | 36,335.0 | -10.23% | | EC2510 | 1,367.9 | -15.9 | -1.15% | 14,562.0 | -32.79% | 31,302.0 | -0.65% | | EC2512 | 1,528.0 | -10.0 | -0.65% | 2,984.0 | -14.03% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...

| | | 消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。近期地缘风险溢价挤出，油价重回基 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 空头盘整 | 本面定价，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上 | | | | 当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-505】 | | | | 油价下降，沙特下调 CP 合同价，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 端原油回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | | 库存端中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：成本端利空，可轻 | | | | 仓试空。PG【4130-4250】 | | | | 社会库存转为累库，需求淡季，期现齐跌。华北基差为-49（环比-28）， | | | | 装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期上中游库存显著下滑， | | L | 空头盘整 | 需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东 | | | | 新时代 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...