钢铁股集体重挫，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)跌19.44%，报1.45港元；鞍钢股份（000898） (00347)跌17.96%，报1.37港元；中国东方集团(00581)跌17.19%，报1.06港元；重庆钢铁（601005）股份 (01053)跌16.09%，报0.73港元。 民生证券指出，贸易摩擦担忧升级，钢材价格承压。4月2日，特朗普宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的"对等 关税"措施，4月9日将实施34%所谓的"对等关税"。钢铁产品不受本次关税约束，但其下游制成品将受 到关税影响。根据钢联测算，2024年钢铁间接对美出口约1000万吨，其他国家对美出口的钢材也有部分 来自于中国，整体影响量预计不低于2000万吨，约占总需求的2%。长期来看，粗钢仍有产量调控预 期，原料端铁矿、焦煤供给趋于宽松，若限产幅度超过2000万吨，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 信达证券（601059）表示，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随 系列"稳增长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发 展、钢铁出口高位等支撑下保持平稳或甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下 ...

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the recent implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is expected to increase global trade costs, leading to potential inflationary or recessionary pressures on the global economy [1][8] - The tariffs include a 10% minimum baseline tariff and higher tariffs on specific countries, with China facing a 34% tariff, which could exacerbate external demand challenges for China [7][8] Short-term and Mid-term Market Impact - In the short term, risk appetite is likely to be under pressure due to inflation or recession narratives, impacting asset pricing and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][10] - Historical data suggests that after tariff announcements, the A-share market may experience initial pressure followed by potential rebounds, depending on new catalysts [10] - Mid-term asset pricing will revert to fundamentals, with the actual impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries being crucial [10] Policy Response and Domestic Growth - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the actual impact of tariffs and potential policy responses, as external demand contraction may necessitate stronger domestic growth policies [2][9] - There is an expectation for increased domestic policy measures to stimulate growth, such as interest rate cuts and consumption incentives, especially if negotiations yield positive outcomes before the tariffs take effect [2][9] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive approach focusing on dividend-paying assets, as market risk appetite is expected to decline [4][11] - Key sectors to consider include telecommunications, transportation, utilities, and state-owned banks, which are likely to attract defensive capital [11] - Additionally, there is a recommendation to explore offensive opportunities in sectors that may benefit from tariff exemptions or domestic growth policies, such as local consumption and infrastructure investments [12]

广发宏观周度述评（第7期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-6期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年经济节奏可能会不同于过去两年。 年初以来，经济数据整体实现开门红。1-2月六大口径数据中，工业、消费、服务业、投资、地产销售同比增速均 高于去年5.0%的实际GDP所对应的年度增速。但由于过去两年均是在一季度形成景气高点，今年市场存在对经济"前高后低"的担心，应该怎么看这一问题？ 首先，简单以PMI作为观测标准，历史上确实有些年份一季度形成相对景气高点，但也有不少年份不同，比如2013年景气峰值在下半年，2014-2015在年中， 2016年经济全年震荡向上，2017年在三季度。 其次，年初形成景气高点的年份，往往存在特定的经济调结构因素。比如2011年是控通胀，2月开始加息；2012年是地产调控，年初地产销售大幅度转负；2018 年是结构性去杠杆；2021年是专项债穿透式监管叠加房地产调控；2023-2024年是隐性债务化解，2024年还包括金融"防空转、挤水分"。从政策节奏来说，调 结构防风险往往位于二季度，它容易带来一季度景气高点。 今年经济节奏有望有所不同： （1）本轮稳增长是去年三季度末启动，至今两个季度，经济好 ...