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大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程股跌债涨,避险情绪主导市场-20250804
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-08-04 14:42
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.36% and the Nasdaq falling by 2.17% due to heightened global risk aversion following Trump's tariffs on 14 countries[4] - The VIX index surged by 36.5% in a single week, indicating increased market volatility and fear[10] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 2.51%, reflecting a dual impact from escalating trade tensions and downward adjustments in growth expectations[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.14%, driven by deteriorating non-farm employment data, which increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September[10] - The 30-year Treasury futures increased by 0.78%, supported by expectations of liquidity easing and policy backing[4] - The current credit spread for 5-year AAA short-term notes is at a historical low of 0.28%, indicating a favorable credit environment[70] Gold and Currency Trends - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.41%, surpassing $3,370 per ounce, as the dollar's strength pressure diminished amid rising rate cut expectations[4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.04%, with non-U.S. currencies under pressure, particularly the euro which fell by 1.33% against the dollar[10] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, it is advised to focus on medium to short-duration high-grade credit bonds while avoiding long-duration interest rate bonds[5] - In equities, the recommendation is to explore opportunities in the U.S. stock market due to its relative economic resilience and a strong dollar[5] - Gold remains a strong hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty, driven by geopolitical conflicts and slowing growth[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]
DLSM外汇:美元大跳水之后,还能否稳住全球货币之锚?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 09:56
尽管在过去几周里美元展现出一定韧性,但上周五一组看似"平淡"的就业数据却引发了市场剧烈波动。 美国7月非农新增就业岗位仅为7.3万个,大幅低于此前11万的预期,更让人警惕的是,6月的数据从14.7 万大幅下修至仅1.4万。市场立刻对美联储的政策路径进行了重新定价:降息预期被迅速拉满,美元指 数单日下挫1.06%,创下自4月以来的最大跌幅。 9月,美联储将再次召开利率决策会议,而8月非农数据将成为关键导向。倘若疲弱趋势延续,美联储选 择年内启动降息几成定局。值得警惕的是,此前不少机构已暗示,一旦政策转向为时过晚,美国可能面 临"高利率+低就业"的尴尬局面,而这恰恰是美元最不愿面对的宏观组合。 另一方面,日元、欧元的反弹并不代表它们已成新避险工具。欧元区自身经济依旧羸弱,日本央行则仍 未完全摆脱负利率惯性,官方口径甚至暗示"不急于加息"。在主要货币均不具备明确"定锚"能力的当 下,市场极度依赖美联储释放的每一个信号,这也解释了为何一次非农"爆冷"就能引发全盘波动。 DLSM外汇认为结论并不乐观:短期内美元可能继续面临下行压力,市场焦点将从"是否降息"过渡 到"降息多少次、幅度多大"。如果这一趋势延续,全球资本流动 ...
有色金属板块活跃,机构这样看后市
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 04:51
财通证券指出,在全球贸易博弈持续且地缘政治长期紧张的背景下,黄金的配置价值更加凸显,看好中 长期黄金上行空间。建议关注有产量增长和业绩释放的相关标的。 民生证券指出,美欧关税谈判落地,美国将对欧盟产品征收15%进口关税,低于特朗普威胁的30%税 率,中美同意延长关税休战期90天,全球贸易摩擦风险有所降低。美国7月非农数据远不及预期,同时 5-6月新增就业大幅下修25.8万人,9月降息预期增强。叠加央行持续购金趋势不变,看好金价中枢抬 升;白银因其工业属性以及补涨驱动下,价格屡创新高。中长期看,央行购买黄金+美元信用弱化为主 线,持续看好金价中枢上移。 有色金属板块今日小幅走强,赤峰黄金、金天钛业、西部黄金等涨幅居前。 华鑫证券指出,虽然美联储议息会议没有降息,但是内部反对不降息的声音开始显现。此外,非农数据 大幅低于预期,年内降息预期大幅提升,贵金属价格上行动力再次增强。 ...
股指期货:驱动回潮,震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:00
Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]
特朗普加税大棒砸向印度?8月3日,美印贸易战传来最新消息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The Modi government is facing significant challenges due to the U.S. imposing tariffs on India, which threatens its economic stability and strategic balance between the U.S. and Russia [2][4][10]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs to 25%, targeting India's economic lifelines, including military imports from Russia and oil from Siberia [2][4]. - This tariff increase is seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to force India into compliance, reflecting a rapid shift in U.S.-India relations [2][10]. Group 2: India's Strategic Balancing Act - India has been attempting to maintain a strategic balance between the U.S. and Russia, holding oil contracts with Russia while engaging in strategic agreements with the U.S. [4][8]. - The recent U.S. actions have put this balancing strategy to the test, with Indian officials scrambling to find alternative oil supply sources [6][8]. Group 3: Diplomatic Maneuvering - In response to U.S. pressure, India is exploring new oil supply routes, potentially from the Persian Gulf, while also signaling a thaw in relations with China by easing investment restrictions [6][8]. - India's approach reflects a complex diplomatic strategy, attempting to leverage relationships with both Eastern and Western powers while avoiding excessive gains for any single party [6][10]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The tariff situation illustrates the complexities of international politics, where both the U.S. and India are employing their accumulated political strategies to navigate the crisis [16][18]. - The ultimate impact of these tariffs on the Indian populace and economy remains uncertain, as the Modi government seeks to find a stable path forward for its citizens [18][20].
巴西民众抗议美“关税霸权”,法媒:这是美巴关系恶化的迹象
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-08-03 22:31
Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariffs on Brazilian goods are causing widespread protests in Brazil, indicating significant discontent among various sectors including unions, farmers, and small businesses [1] - The protests are a response to the U.S. imposing tariffs as high as 50% on certain Brazilian products, which protesters view as a serious infringement on Brazil's economic sovereignty [1] - Analysts suggest that both the U.S. and Brazil will incur losses due to the trade tensions, reflecting a deterioration in relations between the two countries [1][2] Group 2 - President Trump announced exemptions for 694 products, including civilian aircraft, cars, and fossil fuels, which accounted for $18.4 billion in exports from Brazil to the U.S. last year, representing 43.4% of Brazil's total exports to the U.S. [2] - Despite the exemptions, approximately 35.9% of Brazil's exports to the U.S. could still be affected if the tariffs are fully implemented, prompting the Brazilian government to prepare a response plan involving financial and tax measures [2] - A recent survey indicates that 23% of Brazilians view China as a more trustworthy trade partner compared to 19% who trust the U.S., highlighting a shift in public perception regarding trade relationships [3]
今日国内有色金属市场最新价格!有色金属普跌,锰硅领跌4.95%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 14:14
Core Viewpoint - The recent plunge in the domestic non-ferrous metal market reflects deep-seated challenges faced by the industry, driven by multiple long-term factors [1] Group 1: Small Metals Sector - The small metals sector, particularly manganese silicon, experienced a significant drop, with futures contracts plummeting 4.95%, a daily decline of 308 yuan, reaching a new low of 5910 yuan/ton [3] - Tungsten and cobalt indices also fell by 3.55% and 2.51% respectively, indicating accelerated capital outflow from the small metals sector [3] - The previous rise in manganese silicon prices by 15% due to steel production cuts was reversed due to lower-than-expected actual demand, leading to concentrated profit-taking and subsequent market collapse [3] Group 2: Industrial Metals Sector - The industrial metals sector saw widespread declines, with copper futures breaking the psychological barrier of 78,000 yuan/ton, closing at 78,110 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or 1.21% [5] - Aluminum prices fell to 20,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, while zinc and nickel also experienced significant drops [5] - The overall performance of the industrial metals sector has been notably weaker than the industrial product index, with supply-demand imbalances particularly pronounced in the aluminum market [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was not spared, with silver prices dropping significantly more than gold, with silver futures falling 2.04% compared to a 0.36% decline in gold [5] - The disparity in price movements between gold and silver highlights increasing internal differentiation within the precious metals market [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and External Pressures - The market sentiment is low due to multiple pressures, including a 50% tariff on imported copper products from the U.S., weak downstream demand, and accelerated capital withdrawal, with a net outflow of 19.6 billion yuan in a single day [6] - Although domestic copper inventories decreased by 13.17%, this was primarily due to reduced imports rather than a recovery in consumption [6] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.7 but remains below the expansion threshold, indicating ongoing challenges in traditional industries [6] Group 5: Structural Issues and External Shocks - The non-ferrous metal export value increased by 29.1% in the first half of the year, mainly driven by gold, while the trade volume between China and the U.S. fell by 11% due to trade frictions [7] - Profits in the mining sector grew by 41.7%, while processing sector profits declined by 0.4%, indicating a concentration of profits in upstream resources [7] - The government's stringent carbon reduction targets for the electrolytic aluminum industry further squeeze profit margins, particularly for small smelting enterprises [7] - Short-term demand expectations are negatively impacted by the decline in photovoltaic installations and reduced subsidies for home appliance replacements, despite long-term demand prospects in the new energy sector [7]
不顾特朗普威胁,印方表示将继续购买俄罗斯石油
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 11:19
据环球网,美国《纽约时报》当地时间8月2日报道称,尽管美国总统特朗普威胁将对印度购买俄罗斯能 源产品等行为实施"惩罚",印度方面表示,将继续从俄罗斯进口石油。 报道援引两名印度高级官员的话称,印度的政策并未发生变化。一名官员透露说,印度政府"没有向石 油公司下达任何指示",要求他们减少从俄罗斯的进口。 报道提到,特朗普此前(7月30日)威胁称,作为新一轮关税措施的一部分,如果印度不停止进口俄罗 斯石油,他将对印度施加惩罚性措施。随后在8月1日,他又对记者表示,"据了解,印度将不再从俄罗 斯购买石油",但也补充称,"我不知道这是否属实"。 截至发稿前,白宫、印度方面暂无回应。 特朗普7月30日宣布,从8月1日起对印度输美商品征收25%的关税。特朗普发帖抱怨印度关税税率太 高,非关税壁垒又比其他任何国家都要"繁重和讨厌",导致美印贸易多年来维持较小规模。特朗普还 说,美国将针对印度购买俄罗斯武器和能源产品施加"惩罚"。 根据美国商务部数据显示,2024年,美国与印度的商品贸易金额大约为1288亿美元,印度对美贸易顺差 为458亿美元。 ▌来源:新京报贝壳财经 ▌编辑:李巧妹 校对:王菲 ...
宏观周报:“东稳西缓”的宏观超级周-20250803
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-08-03 11:09
Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 31, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.444 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 21.0%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.3%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,819.3 in July, a month-on-month increase of 8.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 50.5%, down from 51% in June, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The new orders index dropped to 49.4%, down from 50.2%, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% from 47.7%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6% in July, reflecting a slowdown in construction activity[3] Price Performance - As of August 1, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week-on-week, while the futures price of live pigs increased by 0.50%[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables rose by 0.64%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits fell by 0.06%[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a strong increase in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.78% and 3.48% respectively[4] Fiscal and Investment - This week, the issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with an additional 350 billion yuan in special government bonds and 2.53 trillion yuan in special bonds issued, marking a 63.3% progress rate[7] - The issuance of local general bonds reached a progress rate of 63.9%[7] Monetary and Liquidity - The yield curve for government bonds is trending downward, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.7059%, down 3 basis points from the previous week[9] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation resulted in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan this week[9]
金价,爆涨!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 02:32
Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International gold prices increased by over 1% on August 1, with a weekly gain of nearly 2%, closing at $3399.80 per ounce, marking a 1.53% rise and reaching a weekly high [1] - Global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, and a 45% increase in value compared to the previous year [3] - The strong performance of gold is attributed to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks, with a 26% increase in dollar gold prices this year, outperforming most major asset classes [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly rose by 147,000 in June, exceeding economists' expectations and alleviating pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.05% to 99.0169, reflecting market reactions to employment data and interest rate expectations [2] - European stock indices experienced declines due to concerns over tariffs and global economic slowdown, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.70%, France's CAC40 down 2.91%, and Germany's DAX down 2.66% [5] Group 3: Oil Market Developments - International oil prices fell on August 1 due to potential production increases by OPEC and its allies, with light crude oil futures down 2.79% and Brent crude down 2.83% [6] - Despite the daily production increase discussions, U.S. oil prices saw a cumulative rise of 3.33% for the week [6]