铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/10 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 【核心矛盾】 铁合金在煤炭价格反弹带动下，以及铁合金受技术性买盘等因素存在一定的反弹情绪 ，上周在提出推出落后 产能维持反弹趋势。近期铁合金上涨的主要逻辑还是在于政策预期和煤炭价格的强势，但现货市场受到钢厂 压价和成本走弱拖累，在终端用钢需求逐渐进入淡季背景下，铁合金长期走势仍相对较弱。 铁合金在利润修 复下，开工率回升，处于一个超季节性增产状态，铁合金产量微增但下游需求并没有明显改变，库存有累库 趋势。锰矿8月报价下调以及澳矿发运恢复，叠加黑色面临需求淡季交易负反馈预期，预计铁合金仍偏弱运 行。上周受到推动落后产能退出政策消息的影响，铁合金作为过剩产业受益相对较大，但盘面回升后，铁合 金利润修复增产的可能性较大，供应压力逐渐增加去库速度变慢，硅铁关注上方5600-5700压力位，硅锰关注 上方5800-5900压力位。短期来看强预期与弱现实的博弈，强预期处于上风，还是要等待预期是否能够真正落 地。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月10日 source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 当前锂矿、锂盐和电芯市场均承压于显著的库存压力，去库存进程进展缓慢，中长期供需失衡的格局尚未出 现实质性缓解。当前市场存在两个短期逻辑，在价格下行周期中，锂盐产能过剩引发的出清压力正沿着产业 链向上游矿端传导，而矿价的松动又会反过来加剧锂盐价格的下行惯性，形成"锂盐跌-矿价松-锂盐再 跌"的负反馈循环风险。而期货反弹时则为锂盐企业创造了一定的套保窗口，并刺激生产积极性释放，进而 带动锂矿石的消耗，推动锂矿价格的上涨，形成"期货上涨-产能释放-矿耗增加-矿价跟涨"的阶梯式上涨链 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间60000-70000 | 19.2% | 17.6% | source： ...

步入2025年，黄金市场展现出极为活跃的一面。从数据来看，2025年年初至近期，伦金和沪金两大指数涨势显著，涨幅分别达26.75%和25.82%，彰显出黄 金在年初强劲的上升势头。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer认为，更高的债券收益率以及亚洲市场对关税进展的韧性，正在抑制黄金的短期上行动力。 嘉盛集团资深分析师Fawad Razaqzada也指出，近几个月来，由于贸易乐观情绪以及最近以色列与伊朗冲突的地缘政治紧张局势有所缓解，黄金的看涨势头 消退，贵金属持续盘整。但未来一周黄金价格是否会出现向上或向下的新突破仍有待观察，7月9日的对等关税截止日期可能会对近期黄金走势产生影响，具 体情况取决于事件的发展态势。 当前金融市场对国际地缘政治风险升级与贸易摩擦开始呈现"反应钝化"现象，即风险事件发生后，短期内避险情绪激增会推动黄金价格上涨，但随后市场发 现这类风险事件已较为常见，难以吸引更多避险资金入场追捧黄金，进而选择逢高减持获利了结，这使得近期金价在失去全球央行强劲买入支撑后，上涨动 力明显不足。 可以说特朗普关税政策带来的影响具有两面性：一方面，短期贸易乐观情绪（如美加墨协议进展）削弱避 ...

Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]

森林包装(605500.SH)公告称，公司股票交易价格连续6个交易日涨停，累计涨幅77.30%。公司目前生产 经营正常，除已披露信息外，公司内外部经营环境未发生重大变化。经核实，公司不存在应披露而未披 露的重大信息。公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润2,200.00万元到3,300.00万 元，与上年同期相比将减少72.42%到58.64%。公司市盈率显著高于行业指数水平，提醒投资者注意二 级市场交易风险。 ...

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]

全球领先的衍生品市场芝商所(CME Group)今日宣布，其2025年第二季度国际市场日均交易量达到创纪 录的920万份合约，同比增长18%。该数据涵盖美国以外所有市场的交易，增长主要由欧洲、中东和非 洲地区以及亚太地区创纪录的季度日均交易量推动。利率、股指、能源、农产品和金属产品国际市场季 度交易量均录得新高，分别增长14%、38%、23%、3%和14%。 芝商所资深董事总经理兼首席商务官Julie Winkler表示："在这个波动性加剧的时期，广大市场参与者再 次选择芝商所，管理风险，把握跨资产类别的机会。我们的客户持续依赖我们具有影响力的全球基准和 全天候流动性，使其能在各个时区高效应对任何市场重大事件。" 欧洲、中东和非洲地区2025年第二季度日均交易量创下670万份合约的新高，同比增长15%。增长得益 于该地区股指、能源、利率及金属产品创纪录的季度日均交易量，分别增长43%、15%、12%和5%。 亚太地区2025年第二季度日均交易量达到了220万份合约，较去年同期增长30%。其中，能源产品增长 67%，金属产品增长34%，农产品增长13%。 加拿大地区2025年第二季度日均交易量为19万份合约，同 ...

智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示， 巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩 重申对阿斯麦"增持"评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。 小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态 度，但鉴于"26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的指引中值增长 7.7%"，小摩认为中期风险较低。投资者仍关 注"26 年的销售额"。投资者对阿斯麦在26 年的前景愈发看淡，原因有多个。 小摩预计该公司将报告营收 74.33 亿欧元(环比下降 4.0%，同比增长 19.1%)，这比市场预期低 1.0%，与 指引区间中间值 74.5 亿欧元相符。小摩预计该公司第二季度订单额为 41.9 亿欧元，这比市场预期低 12.6%，反映了鉴于季度订单的可预测性较低、对订单量的保守看法。然而，这比我们收集到的买方市 场预期的 45 亿欧元低 6.9%(见此处)。在盈利能力方面，小摩对 51.5%的毛利率(公司指引范围为 50- 53%)的估计与市场预期一致。小摩预计阿斯麦第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses two prominent investment philosophies: Warren Buffett's focus on understanding one's own capability circle and Ray Dalio's all-weather diversified allocation strategy, questioning which approach is more beneficial for investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's principle of "do not invest in what you do not understand" is widely recognized, yet many investors confuse familiarity with true understanding [3][5]. - Dalio's strategy emphasizes diversification, but investors often fall into the trap of diversifying without understanding the underlying correlations, leading to ineffective risk management [5][11]. Group 2: Understanding Risk - True understanding in investing does not equate to predicting price movements; it involves comprehending potential losses and their probabilities [6][9]. - The article highlights that overconfidence stemming from cognitive biases can be more detrimental than a lack of knowledge [8][17]. Group 3: Data Insights - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 indicates that a stock-bond allocation reduces maximum drawdown by 15% compared to a pure A-share investment [16]. - Further diversification into global assets, including U.S. stocks and gold, minimizes drawdown while maintaining returns, validating both Buffett's and Dalio's investment principles [16][17]. Group 4: Bridging Understanding and Diversification - The article suggests that a balanced approach can be achieved by integrating Buffett's focus on understanding with Dalio's diversification, allowing for a more robust risk-return profile [17].

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, with central banks increasing gold purchases and international gold prices experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [1][3]. Industry Pain Points: Dual Challenges of Volatility and Compliance Risks - The gold investment sector faces two main risks: uncontrolled short-term volatility and compliance issues with trading platforms. For instance, during the May 2025 Federal Reserve meeting, gold prices dropped by 3% in a single day, leading to account liquidations for some investors [3]. - The number of non-compliant platforms in Hong Kong surged by 45% in 2024, with issues such as false credentials and fund misappropriation becoming prevalent. Additionally, the average spread in the industry reached $0.5 per ounce, while 35% of platforms still used mixed account models, compromising fund safety [3]. Jinsheng Precious Metals' Three-Dimensional Risk Control System - Jinsheng Precious Metals has established a comprehensive risk management system that includes compliance, dynamic risk control models, and scenario-based solutions [4]. - The compliance framework features bank-level fund segregation and transaction transparency, with client funds stored in dedicated accounts at HSBC and subjected to third-party audits. This system has earned the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" certification for six consecutive years [4]. - The dynamic risk control model limits individual trade risks to 2% of total account funds, and during Q1 2025, the platform adjusted leverage from 1:200 to 1:100 in response to market volatility, reducing user risk exposure by 35% [5]. - Scenario-based solutions, such as the "key point warning radar," provide real-time risk alerts, helping users manage their positions effectively. In Q2 2025, the average drawdown for Jinsheng users was only 7.2%, significantly better than the market average of 15.6% [6]. Cost Optimization and Service Innovation - Jinsheng has introduced a "zero commission + instant rebate" policy, reducing the London gold spread to $0.3 per ounce, which is over 30% lower than the industry average. This can save high-frequency traders thousands in fees monthly [8]. - The platform offers a "21-day simulation training camp" and mini contracts starting from 0.01 lots, enabling new investors to quickly learn risk management strategies through AI-assisted trading [8]. Industry Benchmark Value: Compliance and Technology as Dual Drivers - Jinsheng has established a $1 billion risk reserve fund to act as a market maker during liquidity crises, ensuring priority execution of client liquidation orders [9]. - The research team publishes a daily "Precious Metals Morning Report," providing strategic insights based on Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events, helping users avoid potential losses exceeding 15% during critical periods [9]. - The combination of technology and service has led to a user recommendation rate of 98%, making Jinsheng a preferred choice for 30 million global investors. The company positions itself as a "wealth ark" for investors, emphasizing low costs, high transparency, and strong protection [9].