Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various commodities and financial products. Some commodities are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, while others face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. The Fed's interest rate cut has a certain impact on the market, but its influence varies across different sectors [2][3][49]. Summaries by Commodity Types Energy - **Crude Oil**: The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations in supply, the rebound space is limited. A strategy of combining high - level short positions with call options is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The increase in domestic refinery operating rates benefits fuel oil feedstock demand, and the growth in Singapore's bunker fuel consumption is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuels. The low - sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased, and the supply pressure is not prominent. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread at low levels [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is strong, and the domestic market is also positive due to reduced imports in South China and good chemical margins. The short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation as the Fed's attitude is cautious and the interest rate cut path is relatively mild [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point. The Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel has declined. The pure nickel inventory has increased, and the nickel iron inventory has decreased. The Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of lead are strong domestically and weak overseas. The lead ingot import window may open, and the Shanghai lead has room for an upward rebound, with the upper limit temporarily seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Metals - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has reached a new high, and the supply is in excess. The price is under pressure, and the support level is temporarily seen around 2,830 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the expected increase in enterprise costs from tax policy adjustments, it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum [6]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating. The rebar demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The hot - rolled coil demand is more resilient, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The overall steel price continues to rebound, but the rhythm may be volatile [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts is in progress. The price is affected by the expectation of coking coal production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is relatively strong due to the high expectation of production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is rising. The demand is supported by the recovery of hot - metal production, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. The demand is good, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The industrial demand is recovering, and the agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation. The market is oscillating at a low level [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the short term. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the long - term impact of overseas gas restrictions needs attention [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating. The supply may improve in the third quarter, but the high import volume suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is supported by good downstream profits. The supply - demand situation has improved [28]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken slightly. The supply - demand situation of polyethylene is gradually improving, while that of polypropylene improves limitedly [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand needs to be observed. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The PTA price has rebounded, and the PX price has moved up. The demand for PTA is improving, but the price is still driven by raw materials [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at a low level due to the pressure of new - device expectations [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price has rebounded, and it is advisable to allocate long positions in the near - term contracts. The bottle - chip market has a slight improvement, but the long - term over - capacity problem persists [33]. Soft Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices are falling. The long - term trend is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be high, and the export is expected to be low. The domestic rapeseed - related prices are supported by supply bottlenecks but are also under pressure from soybean import expectations [39]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has reached a new low. The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance and the performance of new - crop soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The price is slightly rising. The spot prices vary in different regions. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the new - crop purchase enthusiasm fades [41]. - **Live Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is slightly weak, and the spot price is strong. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has declined. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be high, and the demand is still weak. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term [44]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The supply of apples is expected to be stable, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected [46]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is low, and the demand is going well during the off - season. The market lacks upward momentum in the short term [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is slightly falling. The inventory is still at a high level, and the supply is relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market is rising. The market style is expected to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index can be grasped [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond futures price is rising. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September 2025 meeting[2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in the expected cumulative rate cuts for the year from 50 BP to 75 BP[8] - The voting outcome was 11-1, with only one member supporting a 50 BP cut, indicating limited influence from the "MAGA" faction within the Fed[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, adjusting them to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively[8] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 0.1 percentage points (pct) to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[8] - The inflation expectations for 2026 were increased by 0.2 pct for both PCE and core PCE to 2.6%[8] Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed is likely to implement another rate cut in October 2025, with a potential for 1-2 additional cuts by the end of the year[8] - The focus of monetary policy decisions has shifted from inflation to employment, reflecting the rising risks in the job market[8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be mild and largely one-time[8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September marks the beginning of a new easing cycle [1] Group 1: Key Signals from the Federal Reserve - Signal One: The dot plot indicates a more aggressive stance, with a narrow 10 to 9 vote supporting three rate cuts this year, exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous expectation of two [2] - Signal Two: The policy statement has shifted towards a more accommodative tone, mirroring language used in previous meetings that preceded rate cuts [3] - Signal Three: Chairman Powell emphasized concerns about the labor market, noting that it is "indeed cooling," with rising unemployment indicating a more severe decline in labor demand [4] - Signal Four: Powell characterized the recent rate cut as a "risk management cut," aimed at addressing downside risks in the labor market [6] - Signal Five: Powell suggested that the bond market's pricing of the entire rate cut path could provide substantial support to the economy, implying that the Fed will need to follow through on this path [9][10] Group 2: Implications of Goldman Sachs' Analysis - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the Fed's rate path, based on probability-weighted calculations, appears more dovish than current market pricing, suggesting that the market may need to adjust to further rate cut expectations [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth consecutive cut since 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that this rate cut does not signal the beginning of a long-term easing cycle, dampening market bullish sentiment [1][2] - The decision was characterized as a "risk management" cut, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns, which disappointed some traders [2] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57% to 46,018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22,261.33 points [3] - The dollar index initially dropped by 0.4% after the rate cut but later recovered to increase by 0.3% following Powell's press conference [3] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the need for further rate cuts this year, with varying opinions on whether to raise rates or cut them again [3][4] Group 3 - The Fed's projections for 2026 indicate a more hawkish stance, with officials expecting only one additional rate cut next year, which is less than the market's expectation of two to three cuts [4] - The dot plot from the Fed shows considerable divergence in views among officials regarding the future path of U.S. economic and monetary policy [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, expected to be strong and volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot median implies 3 rate cuts this year. The short - term uncertainty of external risks has decreased, and the domestic easing expectation has increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term increase in upward macro - driving forces [2][3][4] - Different sectors have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the steel market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and production restrictions; the non - ferrous metal market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and economic trends; the energy and chemical market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory conditions; the agricultural product market is affected by factors such as production capacity regulation and demand changes [5][8][15][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dollar first fell and then rose. Domestically, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth rates were lower than previous values and market expectations. The uncertainty of external risks decreased, and the domestic easing expectation increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased [2] - Equity index: Driven by sectors such as lithography machines, diversified finance, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be volatile. The real - world demand has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand contradiction has increased. However, due to the potential production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term steel market is likely to continue the volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decreased slightly. The rigid replenishment demand continued to be released, but the room for further growth in iron - water production is limited. The supply is generally at a high level, and the price should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply continued to rise slightly, and the prices are expected to continue the interval - oscillation [6][7] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was volatile at a high level. There is a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish mindset should be adopted, and short - term positive impacts from policies and news should be guarded against [7] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was volatile at a high level. The supply was stable, and the demand was difficult to increase significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The recent rise in copper prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, tax policy on the recycled copper market, and the Indonesian copper mine accident. However, the upward space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [8] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell. Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market was cautious, and the profit - taking sentiment was strong. The rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the rise in copper prices, but the fundamentals are weak [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering the cost support, the short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward space is limited [10] - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 decreased significantly, but it is expected to recover. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation in the short - term, but the upward space is under pressure [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upper pressure range should be noted [12][13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation due to the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the strengthening of the cost - side coking coal [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short - term due to the price increase of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells in the spot market and the strong policy expectation [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell on Wednesday. The market digested the Fed's interest rate cut decision and US inventory data. The oil price will pay more attention to subsequent inventory conditions, and there is still support below in the short - term [15] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the oil price and remained volatile. The demand has weakened significantly, and the upward space is limited. The follow - up increase amplitude relative to the oil price should be noted [16] - **PX**: The PX price followed the energy and chemical sector and rebounded slightly. It will remain in an oscillating pattern and wait for the changes in PTA devices [16] - **PTA**: The PTA price continued to rise slightly. The downstream start - up rate has recovered, but the terminal start - up rate is still limited. The price upward space is limited, but there is also support below. It is expected to be oscillating without a trend in the short - term [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol ended its continuous decline and rebounded slightly. The port inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [17] - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium - term [17] - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is rising, but there is also support for the price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [18] - **PP**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [18] - **LLDPE**: The supply has increased, and the demand has improved slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18] - **Urea**: The supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean crop is in the early harvesting stage, and the crop rating has declined for three consecutive weeks. The CBOT soybean market maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude [20][21] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. However, the supply - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and the price center of soybean meal is expected to rise [21] - **Oils**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the consumption support is limited. The high inventory of rapeseed oil is being continuously digested, and the market sentiment is strong [21] - **Palm Oil**: The domestic demand for palm oil is gradually weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The production in Malaysia has been affected by floods, but the subsequent increase in production and the decline in exports may limit the increase [22][23] - **Corn**: The new - season corn market is stable at the beginning. The futures expectation is slightly weak, but the risk of breaking the previous low is not high [23] - **Hogs**: The market supply of hogs is sufficient, and the price decline in some regions exceeds expectations. In the medium - term, the pig price may be under pressure from September to November, which may accelerate the market - based capacity reduction [23]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year[1] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a more hawkish stance and uncertainty about future rate cuts[1][3] - The dot plot indicates two potential rate cuts remaining this year, but the actual implementation may be uncertain[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was slightly revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%, driven by investment rather than consumption[3][17] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a weak supply-demand balance in the labor market[4][17] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast is maintained at 3.0%, with core PCE inflation also stable[6][17] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic transition from consumption to investment may lead to structural changes in employment data, with a potential decline in non-farm employment central tendency[7] - The tightening liquidity in the dollar system may prompt the Fed to end balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, with a potential threshold reached by Q4[8][9] - The outlook for major assets suggests a bullish trend for both the RMB and the USD index, with expectations of continued appreciation for the RMB against the USD[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish stance on precious metals prices, with a focus on the price increase opportunities of silver under the background of the Fed's preventive interest rate cuts [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than market expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver prices [2] - Powell's characterization of this rate cut as "risk - management" alleviated market expectations of an overseas economic recession, which was a positive factor for silver with more obvious industrial attributes [2] - The voting pattern of this interest rate meeting implies a lower probability of current director Waller being elected as the new Fed Chairman, and the probability of Hassett taking office is increasing. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will rise with the appointment of the new chairman. Currently, a bullish view on precious metals prices should be maintained [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.76%, closing at 832.64 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 1.06%, closing at 9924.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.55%, closing at 3697.40 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver fell 0.28%, closing at 42.04 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 96.97 [2] - Various precious metal - related varieties showed different price changes and trading volume trends on September 17, 2025, compared with the previous trading day [4][6] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the less - dovish statement than expected by the market put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2] - Powell's view on inflation, labor market risks, and the nature of the rate cut affected market expectations. His characterization of the rate cut as "risk - management" was beneficial to silver [2] - The voting pattern in the meeting affected market expectations. The probability of the appointment of the new Fed Chairman will also affect future market expectations for rate cuts [3] Technical Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices (such as COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [8][11][12] - The near - far month structure charts of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and London silver are presented, reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [20][23][33] - Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationship with prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][43] - Statistics on the internal and external price differences of gold and silver are provided, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA, along with their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [51][52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Japanese and Korean stock markets, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the subsequent rise in Chinese assets in the U.S. market. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 18, Japanese and Korean stock markets saw collective gains, with the Nikkei 225 index opening up 0.27% at 44,910.50 points, reaching a record high during the session [1][3] - The Korean Composite Index opened up 0.57% at 3,432.77 points, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Among the Nikkei 225 stocks, Resonac Holdings experienced the largest increase of 8.7%, while Tokyo Electric Power had the largest decline of 4.4% [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 [5][6] - The decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting member advocating for a 50 basis point cut [5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the weakening labor market was a key factor in the decision to cut rates, noting that job growth has slowed [5][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, while non-farm payroll growth has been slowing [6] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core PCE index rising 2.9% year-on-year in July, and expectations for further increases in August [6] - Powell emphasized the need to manage inflation risks while addressing employment concerns, suggesting a cautious approach to future rate cuts [6][9] Group 4: Global Market Implications - The Fed's shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing employment is expected to have significant implications for global financial markets [9] - The article notes that the Fed's decision to ease monetary policy while the stock market is near historical highs is a rare occurrence, highlighting the unusual economic environment [9]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【9月18日招商宏观研报：美联储降息25BP，未来不确定性加剧】当地时间9月17日，美联储召开议息 会议，降息25BP，联邦基金目标利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%，缩表节奏不变。本次会议延续8月 JacksonHole全球央行会议基调，认为就业下行风险大于通胀上行风险，鲍威尔将此次降息定调为"风险 管理式降息"。 从点阵图看，美联储内部分歧大，加剧未来不确定性。点阵图和SEP显示今年降息 75BP，明后年各降25BP，低于会前市场预计的今明两年各75BP。 高频数据和鲍威尔表态显示，美国只 是短暂放缓非衰退，本轮属"预防式"降息。年内75BP已足够对冲就业市场下行风险，明年一季度通胀 有上行风险，后续关注9-10月美国就业数据。 本次会议对明后年降息指引保守，SEP显示明后年各降 25BP，与6月相比无变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales for August showed a strong performance with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [2][16]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, while core inflation remains at 3.1% [2][16]. - China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts this year and one in the next year, reflecting a relatively hawkish policy path [1][4]. - The recent rate cut has led to increased volatility in gold and silver prices, with market participants reacting to the Fed's decisions and economic indicators [2][16]. - The market is observing the impact of trade negotiations and the ongoing concerns regarding inflation from tariffs, which are influencing gold prices positively in the long term [2][17]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, prices have decreased by 0.84%, with tight supply conditions for concentrates and high growth in smelting output [3][18]. - The steel market is experiencing stable profitability, with iron and steel production recovering, while steel inventories are accumulating [22][23]. - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with soybean planting area increased but production estimates lowered, leading to a neutral to bearish outlook for soybean prices [25]. Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to be officially released next year [7]. - The National Cybersecurity Administration emphasizes the need for leading enterprises to focus on key technology breakthroughs, particularly in chip development [5]. Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The crude oil market is adjusting production levels in response to stable global economic growth and favorable market fundamentals [11]. - The lithium carbonate supply is expected to see a slight increase, while demand for ternary materials is projected to decline, indicating potential price pressures in the lithium market [20]. - The rubber market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations due to improved supply conditions and seasonal demand increases [13].