安联贸易北美高级经济学家Dan North谈及仅有一张反对票(此前部分预期会出现多张反对票)时表 示，"也许他们有点抱团取暖的意思，心想'新来的米兰，他的议程显而易见。让我们团结起来，确保他 明白我们的立场，以及我们都致力于同一目标'。" 贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder在谈及潜在的美联储主席继任者表示，"我们认为未来几 年，美联储在实现充分就业和价格稳定双重使命时面临的主要挑战实际上是充分就业。我们再次目睹一 个当前运行良好、企业运营非常健康的经济体，但民众的就业环境正在显著恶化。因此，我们认为这将 成为美联储在未来数月、数季度乃至数年内需要帮助解决的新挑战。" 至少部分困惑可能源于鲍威尔将此次降息定性为"风险管理"式操作。除此之外，尽管FOMC暗示今年将 以较快步伐降息(在10月和12月剩余两次会议上行动)，但其预计未来两年每年仅降息一次，2028年则不 降息。这种鸽派与鹰派的混合让市场感到不安。 会议开始时政治意味浓厚，新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰在周二宣誓就职后首次参会。然而，鲍威尔几乎没有 流露出紧张气氛。"任何投票者真正改变局势的唯一方法是具有难以置信的说服力，而在我们工作的背 景下，做 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 aligns with market expectations, indicating a risk management approach focused on mitigating employment market downturn risks [1] - The dot plot shows a revised target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining the forecasts for inflation and unemployment rates unchanged [1] - The expectation of an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year is consistent with prior predictions, with further cuts anticipated in the October and December meetings [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior in U.S. Treasuries, while U.S. stocks showed a "catch-up" characteristic, with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1] - It is suggested to downplay the guidance on next year's interest rate path from this meeting, with expectations that the U.S. dollar may remain weak during this round of rate cuts, while gold is expected to perform well [1]

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%，暗示年内可能继续降息两次。 一图速览>> | | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | ● 前一轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 175 | | 75 | | 75 50 | | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 ● | | 1 25 | | | | . . | | 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰如何主张？ 最新点阵图透露哪些信息？ 关于 风险管理式降息、 反对票、通胀情况，鲍威尔如何表态？ 机构如何解读本次降息？ 2024 25 (25) 2025 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09 时隔四年重启宽松 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on September 17, where it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The meeting continued the tone set at the August Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating that the risks of job market decline outweigh the risks of rising inflation [1] - The economic outlook was slightly downgraded, with a revision of the unemployment rate for the next two years, leading Powell to label the rate cut as a "risk management cut" based on weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The dot plot indicated significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, increasing future uncertainty [1] - The dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is notably lower than market expectations prior to the meeting [1] - Current high-frequency data and Powell's statements suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown rather than a recession, indicating that the current rate cut is more of a precautionary measure [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that a 75 basis point cut this year is sufficient to hedge against job market risks, while inflation may still pose an upward risk in the first quarter of next year [1] - After the anticipated cuts of 50-75 basis points, there may be a reversal in rate cut expectations, with a focus on changes in U.S. employment data in September and October [1] - The guidance for rate cuts in the following two years remains conservative, with the SEP showing a consistent 25 basis point cut compared to June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points does not indicate the start of a long-term easing cycle, which dampens market bullish sentiment [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones increased by 260.42 points (0.57%) to 46018.32, while the Nasdaq fell by 72.63 points (0.33%) to 22261.33, and the S&P 500 decreased by 6.41 points (0.10%) to 6600.35 [4]. - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the financial sector rose by 0.96%, and the energy sector increased by 0.28%, while the industrial sector fell by 0.47% and the information technology sector declined by 0.7% [4]. - In the ETF market, the semiconductor ETF dropped by 0.64%, while the energy ETF rose by 0.23% and the financial ETF increased by 0.97% [4]. Stock Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia down 2.62%, Amazon down 1.04%, and Google A down 0.65%, while Microsoft rose by 0.19% and Apple increased by 0.35% [5]. - Lyft's stock surged by 13% following the announcement of a partnership with Waymo for autonomous taxi services in Nashville, while competitor Uber fell by 5% [6]. - Workday's shares rose by 7.25% after reports of Elliott Management acquiring over $2 billion in shares [7]. - StubHub's stock fell over 6% on its first day of trading, marking a reversal in the hot IPO market [8]. - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.85%, including Baidu up over 11% and NIO up over 6% [8].

新任美联储理事米兰有何主张？关于风险管理式降息，鲍威尔如何表态？一图速览>> 2025 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09 时隔四年重启宗公 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 5.5% 5.5% 2025/9 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 2008/12 2020/03 0.25% 0.25% 美联储最新点阵图 2026 2027 2025 2028 点阵图显示,美联化 内部分歧巨大。 ■ 关于反对票: 50个基点的降息完全没有得到广 泛支持 ..... 过去五年，我们也曾实 施非常大幅度的加息和降息,它 通常发生在政策明显偏离、需要 讯速调整的时候。现在不是这样 的情况。今年迄今,我认为我们 的政策一直是对的。 在此次降息后, 赞J 年内按兵不动或再β 息2次的委员分别有 位和9位。外界预测， 有1位主张年内激进β 息150个基点的委 { 可能是刚进入美联们 理事会的米兰。 相比之下，2026年的预测分布更为分散,利率区间中值集中? 3.25%-3.75%，与目前的利率水平相比，有75个基点的降息空间。 美联储主席鲍威尔 机构候读 ■ 关于风险管理式降息: 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, amidst significant internal divisions among committee members [1][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates reflects a risk management approach, balancing upward inflation risks against downward employment risks [5][8]. - The dot plot indicates a split among committee members, with 6 supporting no further cuts and 9 favoring two additional cuts this year [1][3]. Economic Projections - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, suggesting a potential 75 basis points of room for further cuts compared to current levels [4]. - Projected GDP growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with unemployment rates expected to decline slightly from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2027 [11]. Inflation and Employment Insights - Commodity price increases are identified as a significant driver of inflation, with expectations that these effects will intensify in the remaining months of the year and into the next [7]. - The labor market is showing signs of softening, which supports the rationale for the recent rate cut and potential future cuts [8][10].

据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标 区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再 次降息。 此次决议以11票赞成、1票反对获得通过，唯一持不同意见的理事米兰（Stephen Miran）主张一次性降 息50个基点。美联储在最新经济预测中还暗示，年内可能会再有两次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示，就业市场走弱是促使美联储启动降息的主要原因。"劳动 力需求已经放缓，就业增长的步伐低于维持失业率稳定所需的水平。"他说，劳动力市场不再"非常稳 健"。 这一决定出台之际，美国总统特朗普持续向美联储施压，要求更大幅度的降息，并试图扩大对白宫核心 经济团队与美联储的影响力。据悉，他正推动调整部分理事席位，将白宫顾问安插进决策层。本次会议 中，新任理事米兰和特朗普试图以涉嫌房贷欺诈为由罢免的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）均参加了讨 论。 在接受南方财经记者的采访中，前纽约联储银行信贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨（Richard Roberts）表示， 此次降息"不是恐慌性的，而是一次谨慎而温 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, 2025, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction[1] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is lower than market expectations of 75 basis points for both years[1] Economic Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 1.5%, down from 2.5% in 2024, indicating a slowdown in economic activity[2] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% for 2025, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2026, reflecting concerns about job market stability[5] Inflation Trends - Inflation risks are decreasing, with the PCE inflation rate expected to be 3.0% for 2025, unchanged from previous forecasts[5] - Commodity inflation has rebounded, while service inflation continues to decline, suggesting mixed inflationary pressures[2] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major U.S. stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones showing changes of -0.10%, -0.33%, and +0.57% respectively[4] - The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose by 1 basis point to 3.52% and 2 basis points to 4.06%, respectively, indicating market adjustments to the Fed's guidance[4] Investment Strategy - Short-term risk assets may enter a volatile phase, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish on U.S. equities, with potential opportunities for adjustments until the end of next year[4] - The focus will shift to the outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations and the stance of Trump and Congress on the fiscal policy for FY26, which could impact market dynamics[4]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美联储宣布降息25个基点，点阵图中值暗示今年将累计降息3次 沙特与巴基斯坦签署共同防御协议 财政部：1-8月证券交易印花税收入同比增长81.7% 李家超：推动香港成为国际黄金交易市场，拓展黄金仓储 市场盘点 鲍威尔：劳动力市场风险偏向下行，此次降息可理解为风险管理式降息 美国财长贝森特曾同时列两处房产为"主要居所"与库克遭罢免理由一致 加拿大央行降息25个基点，从政策声明中删除了降息的前瞻性指引 欧盟宣布对以色列的制裁措施 周三，港股高开高走，科网股带动恒生科技指数走强，百度盘中一度涨近20%，恒指收涨1.78%，报26908.39点。恒生科技指数收涨4.22%，报6334.24点。截 至收盘，恒指大市成交额3602.84亿港元。盘面上，职业教育板块走高，半导体股强势，内房股、航空股回暖；黄金股跌幅居前，禽畜肉类板块回调。个股 方面，花样年控股(01777.HK)涨27%，商汤(00020.HK)涨15.8%，百度(09888.HK)涨15.7%，蔚来汽车(09 ...