Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In September 2025, the direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the current volatility has risen [2]. - The short - term trend of various futures products varies. For example, gold is expected to rise above $3600 but shows an overbought phenomenon, while some products like steel are in a weak decline [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are - 0.67%, - 0.41%, - 1.16%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the next direction [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.8%. Use range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is expected to rise above $3600, but be cautious about chasing long positions. Silver long positions can be held or use unilateral call options to go long [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: The EC main contract rebounds and fluctuates. Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [2]. Black Futures - **Steel Futures**: The apparent demand for rebar declines, and the steel price maintains a weak downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the ratio of steel to ore [2]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The shipment rises to a high level, and the price fluctuates with steel. The range is 750 - 810. Go long on iron ore and short on coke [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The spot price fluctuates weakly. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal for arbitrage [2]. - **Coke Futures**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants is implemented, and the eighth round is blocked. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coke for arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Futures - **Copper Futures**: The center of the copper price rises. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price shows different trends. Pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the pressure level of 21000 [2]. - **Zinc Futures**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory accumulates. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Nickel Futures**: The dollar strengthens, and the nickel price fluctuates and falls. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The price weakens slightly, with a game between cost support and weak demand. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: The expected marginal supply increase pressures the oil price. Adopt a unilateral short - bias approach [2]. - **Urea Futures**: High supply pressure and lower Indian bids make the short - term market likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PX Futures**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September, with limited short - term drivers. Wait and see and pay attention to the support at 6600 and the oil price [2]. - **PTA Futures**: There is little supply - demand contradiction in September, with limited drivers. Wait and see, pay attention to the support at 4600 and the oil price, and mainly do a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [2]. - **Other Chemical Futures**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading strategies, such as short - term shock, range - bound operations, etc. [2] Agricultural Futures - **Livestock Futures**: The supply - demand contradiction of live pigs is limited. Pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm. The 11 - contract pays attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Grain Futures**: Corn spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates and adjusts. Short on rallies [2]. - **Oil Futures**: Palm oil maintains a strong shock consolidation and may冲击 $9500 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Futures**: Each agricultural product has different supply - demand and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions such as short - position closing, waiting and seeing, etc. [2] Special Commodity Futures - **Glass Futures**: The futures and spot inventories are at a high level, and the industry has a negative feedback. Hold short positions [2]. - **Rubber Futures**: The fundamentals are strong, and the rubber price fluctuates at a high level. Short on rallies if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The spot price rises slightly, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price range is 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: The spot price rises, and the polysilicon price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The situation has not improved, and the price is weak. Wait and see [2]. Tin Futures - The supply remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [3]

金价在周四走软，因在预期美国降息触及历史高位后遭遇获利了结，同时投资者期待本周将公布的美国 关键就业数据。现货 黄金日内最新下跌1%，跌至接近3510美元/盎司的位置。GoldSilver Central董事总 经理Brian Lan表示："我们看到了一些获利回吐，但目前黄金仍处于牛市。降息预期和对美联储独立性 的担忧将增加避险需求，即使金价在短期内升至3800美元甚至更高，我们也不会感到意外。" ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing volatility, but market liquidity remains strong, with the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) seeing a capital inflow of 2.676 billion yuan over the past seven trading days [1] - The current support for the Hong Kong tech sector is driven by two main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts and the strengthening narrative around AI [1] - The U.S. economic report indicates slower growth, with no signs of acceleration, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit the interest-sensitive Hong Kong tech sector [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes 30 strong R&D internet and manufacturing tech companies, with top five constituents being Tencent, Alibaba, SMIC, NetEase, and Xiaomi [2] - As of September 3, 2025, the Hang Seng Tech ETF has a daily average trading volume of 5.3 billion yuan since August, and the index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 21.76, below the historical average of 23.75% over the past five years [2] - The ETF was established on May 24, 2021, and is considered a liquid product that may benefit from the anticipated easing of liquidity and validation of AI-driven business models [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - The continuous reduction in lead inventory supports the price [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,865 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,998.5 dollars/ton, down 0.42% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 30,342 lots, a decrease of 11,881 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,559 lots, an increase of 2,250 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 50,638 lots, a decrease of 866 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 160,192 lots, an increase of 785 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.5 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the import premium was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -575.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.1 yuan; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third - month contract was -614.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.5 yuan [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 55,874 tons, a decrease of 554 tons; the LME lead inventory was 254,550 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons [1] Recycling Market - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 59,225 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -306 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Group 3: News - Weak US JOLTS job openings data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to use tariffs as a threat to oppose the UN shipping emissions agreement [1] Group 4: Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent statements from multiple Federal Reserve officials indicating that changes in the labor market dynamics are crucial for future interest rate decisions [3][4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasized the need to act decisively before the labor market deteriorates, advocating for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggested that a modest easing of policy is necessary due to signs of a slowing labor market, proposing a 25 basis point rate cut in the remaining months of the year [3][4] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Bullard raised concerns about the downside risks to the labor market as key employment indicators show signs of weakness, while also lowering the assessment of inflation risks [4] - The current gold futures market is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, with a bullish technical structure anticipated [4] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 818 to 860 yuan per gram, while support levels are noted between 803 to 850 yuan per gram [4]

The provided content does not contain any information related to quantitative models or factors. It primarily consists of financial market updates, company news, and economic data. No relevant quantitative analysis, models, or factors are discussed in the documents.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs, and silver is expected to reach its previous high. Copper prices remain firm due to the weakening US dollar. Zinc is in a range-bound consolidation, and lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are in range-bound oscillations, while the center of alumina prices is moving downward. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel and stainless steel prices are in narrow-range oscillations [2]. - The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 2, indicating a strong bullish outlook. The trend intensity of copper is 1, showing a moderately bullish outlook. The trend intensities of zinc, lead, aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel are 0, suggesting a neutral outlook. The trend intensity of tin is 1, also showing a moderately bullish outlook, and the trend intensity of alumina is -1, indicating a moderately bearish outlook [8][12][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 814.88, with a daily increase of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 821.68, with a night - session increase of 1.40%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9820, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 9918.00, with a night - session increase of 1.34% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The number of job openings in the US in July reached a 10 - month low, strengthening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut. Fed Governor Waller said that an interest rate cut should be initiated this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months [5][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 80,110, with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 80260, with a night - session increase of 0.19%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,974, with a daily decrease of 0.39% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weak US JOLTS job opening data strengthened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut. Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba. The African Kamoa - Kakula copper mine is expected to resume production capacity early next year [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract yesterday was 22285, with a daily decrease of 0.18%. The London Zinc 3M electronic disk closing price was 2865.5, with a daily increase of 1.15% [13]. - **News**: Fed Governor Waller said that an interest rate cut should be initiated this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months. The number of US job openings in July reached a 10 - month low [14]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract yesterday was 16865, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The London Lead 3M electronic disk closing price was 1998.5, with a daily decrease of 0.42% [16]. - **News**: Weak US JOLTS job opening data strengthened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut [16]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 273,120, with a daily decrease of 0.31%, and the night - session closing price was 273,690, with a night - session increase of 0.21%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closing price was 34,620, with a daily decrease of 0.33% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, the number of US job openings in July reached a 10 - month low, and Fed Governor Waller advocated for an interest rate cut [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract yesterday was 20710, with a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2992, with a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20285, with a decrease of 15 compared to the previous day [25]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to use tariffs as a threat against the UN shipping emissions agreement [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, with a decrease of 740 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,915, with a decrease of 45 compared to the previous day [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage, and environmental violations have been found in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trading environment has deteriorated, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has further increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold. Precious metals are expected to show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][20]. - The steel industry's policy expectations remain positive, and the pre - National Day rigid demand restocking expectation can support the double - coking market. However, factors such as the increase in coking coal inventory, high hot metal production, and the expectation of coke price cuts will put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - The SC crude oil night session fell 1.67%. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about supply disruptions. The future trend depends on OPEC's production increase [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: Federal Reserve's Waller stated that the Fed should cut interest rates at the next meeting and may implement multiple rate cuts, with the pace depending on data performance [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that US fiber optic producers and exporters' trade - mode change for exporting relevant single - mode fibers to China constitutes an evasion of anti - dumping measures. Starting from September 4, 2025, the current anti - dumping tax rates for non - dispersion - shifted single - mode fibers imported from the US will be applied to relevant cut - off wavelength - shifted single - mode fibers [7]. - **Industry News**: FTSE Russell announced quarterly review changes to indices such as the FTSE China 50 on September 3, to take effect after the close on September 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and remove China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian NARI, and Wanhua Chemical [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.56%, the US dollar index increased by 0.38%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.07%, London gold spot increased by 2.34%, London silver increased by 1.04%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.45%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 2.07%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 3.16%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 0.45%, and CBOT wheat decreased by 2.42%. CBOT corn remained unchanged [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The US major indices rose. The previous trading day saw a correction in stock index futures, with the defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.40 trillion yuan. The A - share market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom". The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, with more technology - growth components, are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 indices, with more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive. The stock index has risen significantly since July, showing short - term adjustment signs but with a high probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend [11][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The market is concerned about the large debt scales of Japan and the US, and the US bond yield fluctuates. Although the economic sentiment level continues to expand, the real estate market is still in adjustment. The bond futures prices have stabilized, and attention should be paid to the impact of the equity market on the bond market sentiment [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.67% at night. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts affects oil demand. The US crude oil inventory has decreased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.38% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefin plant operating rate increased. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is expected to be short - term bullish [15][16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the supply is expected to increase periodically. The demand side is in the off - season, and the consumption stimulus policy provides some support. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The supply - demand repair is ongoing, and the market focuses on the supply - side contraction. The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals, especially gold and silver, are strong. The decrease in US job vacancies, Trump's attempt to interfere with the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of an interest rate cut are all beneficial to precious metals. The long - term driving force for gold remains supported, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and home - appliance industries have different trends, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21][22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by sentiment, with high volatility. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The inventory has decreased slightly. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, but there is still room for price increase if the inventory is depleted [24]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The iron ore price is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the future [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The rebar performs weaker than hot - rolled coils. The short - term market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures were weak at night. The policy expectation is positive, but factors such as inventory and price cuts put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the reduction in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oil futures were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, while exports increased. The market fundamentals have limited changes, and the oil market is expected to continue oscillating [30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has entered the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories. However, the import and new - season sugar supply may put pressure on prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the international market and show a weak - oscillatory trend [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the market focus is shifting to the new - cotton purchase. The Xinjiang cotton production is high, and attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton. The cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated and fell 3.04%. The short - term market is expected to be supported by the stabilization of the US - bound shipping market and the MSC's National Day suspension plan. In the medium term, it may return to the game of off - season freight rates. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays on shipping companies' capacity regulation [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall view of the market is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. The policy environment supports the capital market, but short - term fluctuations may occur. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affects multiple asset classes, and different industries have their own supply - demand and price characteristics. [2][3] - In the short term, there are opportunities for some assets such as precious metals, nickel, and crude oil, while others like steel, industrial silicon, and PVC face challenges due to supply - demand imbalances. [7][14][41] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes joint meetings of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, Apple's product shipment adjustments, stock trading suspensions, and Fed's interest - rate cut signals. - The central government's policy supports the capital market, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify after recent rises. The general strategy is to go long on dips. [2][3] Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures rose. The Ministry of Finance will issue bonds, and global borrowers issued a large amount of investment - grade bonds. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net回笼. - The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates may decline in the long run, but the bond market may fluctuate in the short term. [4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals rose, while COMEX metals fell. Fed officials' statements and weak labor market data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, supporting precious metals prices. - The Fed may cut interest rates in the next three meetings, which is positive for precious metals. It is recommended to go long on silver at dips. [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices oscillated. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the import situation and scrap copper substitution advantage also changed. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the copper supply is tight. Although there is support for prices, the upward resistance may increase. [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and LME inventories and other indicators changed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. - The Fed's dovish signal and low domestic inventories support prices, but the short - term price may be volatile. [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and the downstream start - up rate was low. - The industry shows an oversupply situation. Although the Fed may cut interest rates, the zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [12] Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead concentrate inventories decreased, and the supply of recycled lead decreased. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the reduction in lead supply support the upward movement of lead prices. [13] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the demand for stainless steel support nickel prices. - Short - term macro - environment is positive, and nickel prices are expected to be supported in the long run. It is recommended to go long on dips. [14] Tin - Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, and demand was weak. - The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate due to the decrease in supply and weak demand. [15] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices declined. The lack of positive drivers led to a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to overseas supply. [16] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances support prices, but the oversupply situation limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see. [17] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell slightly. The Indonesian riot and the approaching consumption season may support prices. [18] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices were slightly lower. The downstream is transitioning to the peak season, and the cost and market activity support high - level prices. [19][20] Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly. The overall market atmosphere was weak, and the supply - demand situation was not optimistic. - The demand for steel products is weak, and the price may continue to decline if the demand does not improve. [22][23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and the iron - water output decreased. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and weak downstream demand. [24][25] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices were stable, and soda ash prices oscillated. Glass inventory decreased, and soda ash supply increased. - Glass prices may oscillate weakly in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term. [26][27] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment and the weak demand for steel products. - Manganese silicon prices may remain weak before mid - October, and it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading. [28][31] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The over - capacity and weak demand problems remain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [32][33] Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices rose. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate with high volatility. [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices oscillated. The weather in Thailand may affect production, and the tire industry has different operating rates. - The medium - term strategy is to be long, and the short - term is to go long on dips. [38][40] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand layout. [41] Methanol - Methanol prices rose. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [42] Urea - Urea prices fell. Supply decreased in the short term, and demand was mainly concentrated on exports. It is recommended to go long on dips. [43] Styrene - Styrene futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. The BZN spread may repair, and the price may rebound after inventory reduction. [44][45] PVC - PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and the export expectation was weak. It is recommended to go short. [46] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply was still excessive, and the medium - term inventory may increase. The short - term is supported by policies, and the medium - term valuation may decline. [47] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply decreased, and demand improved. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX. [48][49] Para - Xylene - PX prices fell. The load was high, and the downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance. The valuation has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil. [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE futures prices fell. The cost has support, and the price may oscillate upward. [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP futures prices rose. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally rebounding. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at dips. [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices were mostly stable with some declines. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - level rebounds. [55] Eggs - Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply improved marginally, and demand increased due to pre - festival stocking. The short - term price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans fell, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. US soybean demand is a concern, and the supply of protein raw materials is excessive globally. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal. [57][59] Oils and Fats - Oils and fats prices were weak. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia changed, and the production of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating strongly in the short term. [60][61] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Domestic import supply increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The overall view is bearish. [62][63] Cotton - Cotton prices fell slightly. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decrease, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level. [64][65]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, reaching a peak of $3640.1 per ounce before slightly retreating, closing at $3619.70, marking a 0.77% rise and a record high for four consecutive days [1] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has intensified, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, and an anticipated total cut of 50 to 75 basis points within the year [1] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicated price increases across various regions, with mentions of inflation at a four-year low, contributing to the market's dovish sentiment [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities forecasts that the gold market still has upward potential for the remainder of the year, driven by four key factors [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve will be crucial in the fourth quarter, influencing market dynamics [2] - Continued expectations for interest rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding tariffs are expected to support gold prices [2] - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is anticipated to persist, with increased official sector demand for gold providing foundational support [2] - Strong demand from the private sector for gold is expected to continue, with gold ETFs likely to attract significant capital inflows [2]