Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has raised market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovish stance of Powell at the global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor have pushed up these expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recent demand - side policies in first - tier cities may increase trading volume, but the sustainability needs to be observed. After the important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. Political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovishness of Powell at the August global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor on August 25 have further pushed up these expectations. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level, and real wage growth is flat. Service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. The "anti - involution" has led to better mid - stream profits in July. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size has narrowed to - 1.7%. First - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, but the overall policy strength is relatively weak, with more relaxation for new houses in suburban areas of core cities [7]. - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support non - dollar assets [7]. 2. View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: V - shaped rebound and high - level oscillation. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Hold bull spreads following the market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The yield curve steepens. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [8]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be considered. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production is decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and supply is tightening. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and there is no inventory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and attention is paid to cost adjustments. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply pressure is accumulating, and the futures market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is still increasing, and peak - season demand needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply fluctuates slightly, and the expectation of oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to soda ash inventory [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The decline in black - series prices has led to a decline in zinc prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The continuous increase in nickel - iron prices has led to a correction in the stainless - steel futures market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously changing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread is stabilizing, and attention is paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Shandong spot prices have declined, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have met with an increase in warehouse receipts, and fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil prices and oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is accumulating, and olefin prices are falling. Methanol prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand are mainly loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and the release of exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the actual implementation of exports [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low - inventory fundamentals are competing with macro sentiment, and the downward support is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - **PX**: The market atmosphere has cooled, and there is insufficient upward support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand situation still supports prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and unexpected device load reduction [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and there is a possibility of further reduction. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected increases in bottle - chip enterprise production and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows PP fluctuations in the short term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and PP prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The fundamental support is limited, and plastic prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing, and PVC prices are running weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and caustic soda prices are oscillating temporarily. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: There may still be a need for short - term adjustment, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The release of state reserves has pushed down soybean meal prices, and point - price trading is expected to keep prices oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, and sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pig**: The supply is expected to be abundant, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall trend is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has rebounded to the previous high and is following the trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: There is a differentiation between near - and far - term contracts, and the main pulp contract is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced positions, and cotton prices have declined within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The driving force is downward, but the short - term downward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to imports [10]. - **Log**: The delivery pressure is still large, and log prices are weakly adjusting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The release of US PCE data has led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant position - building has pushed up the gold price. Although the increase in positions is difficult to maintain at a high level, the gold price is expected to be strong but with a narrowing increase. The premium of Shanghai Gold has converged to - 0.9 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The US PCE data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and combined with tariff concerns, the silver price has risen significantly. With the possibility of increased silver tariffs and strong capital promotion, the silver price is expected to remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US PCE data increased interest - rate cut expectations, large - scale position - building pushed up the gold price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US PCE data and tariff concerns led to a significant rise in the silver price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 120 kg to 39744 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11231 kg to 1207227 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan in Hokkaido - Tuesday and Wednesday: Vietnam on holiday - 17:00: Eurozone's preliminary CPI for August - 19:30: Participation of an ECB Executive Board member in the 2025 ECB Legal Conference - 20:45: Speech by an ECB Governing Council member at a payment - related event - 21:45: Final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August - 22:00: US ISM Manufacturing Index for August and construction spending for July [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continues, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the increase in the silver price may expand [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold on September 1, 2025, was 230,052, an increase of 8.07% from August 31; the short - position volume was 67,515, an increase of 13.39%; the net position was 162,537, an increase of 6.00% [30]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver on September 1, 2025, was 367,335, an increase of 10.49% from August 29; the short - position volume was 279,207, an increase of 11.74%; the net position was 88,128, an increase of 6.69% [31].

Group 1 - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates a potential breakout for gold, driven by inflation pressures following the release of PCE data, with COMEX gold rising by 2.89% and silver by 4.81% this week [1][2] - The copper market is experiencing high volatility, with prices up by 0.99% this week, influenced by China's waste copper policy leading to a supply disruption, with an estimated 30% reduction in recycled copper rod production [2][3] - Aluminum prices continue to rise, with a 0.53% increase this week, as the focus remains on inventory depletion during the peak consumption season, with limited impact from U.S. aluminum tariffs [3] Group 2 - The rare earth sector is seeing a significant increase in processing fees for heavy rare earths, with fees rising from 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton to 18,000-20,000 yuan/ton due to regulatory changes affecting small enterprises [3][4] - Cobalt prices are stabilizing and rebounding, with supply constraints and a potential policy shift in the Democratic Republic of Congo in September that could impact future pricing dynamics [4][5] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Xinyi Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

降息预期继续支撑黄金反弹，本周重点关注美国劳动力市场数据。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended (★★) [1] - Silver: Long position recommended (★★★) [1] - Copper: Hold long positions (★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound (★★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (★★★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range fluctuation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious metals**: Multiple factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, strong fundamentals, and tariff events have pushed silver to a 14 - year high. Gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern in the long run. Both gold and silver are in an upward long - term trend [2][3]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the demand is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait for dips to enter the market [4][5][6]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is increasing, but the demand is weak during the off - season. There is no clear one - sided driving force. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the long term [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is relatively abundant, and the inventory is still increasing. The upward movement of aluminum prices is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [10][12][13]. - **Nickel**: Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. The supply and demand within the domestic nickel industry chain are divided. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [14][16][17]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, but the decline is less than expected. The market is waiting for new driving forces, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near the annual line [18][20][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Review - Multiple factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, strong fundamentals, and tariff events have pushed silver to a 14 - year high [2]. 3.1.2 Basic Logic - The European Central Bank may not cut interest rates as inflation is near the target and the economy is stable. Global manufacturing in many countries is recovering, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising. The US Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 "critical minerals list" and the obvious supply - demand gap in the silver market, along with continuous capital inflows into global ETFs for 7 months, support the rise of silver. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [2]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 770 in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance at recent highs of 803 and 810. Silver has support around 9530 after breaking through the historical high. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Review - Shanghai copper is oscillating narrowly at a high level, testing the pressure at the 80,000 - yuan mark [5]. 3.2.2 Industrial Logic - The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. The domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September due to smelter maintenance. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand is expected to pick up. Overseas copper inventories are accumulating, but domestic exchange copper inventories are decreasing. The domestic copper social inventory is at a low level in the same period of history, and the spot circulation is tight [5]. 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions, and new entrants can wait for dips to enter the market. Enterprises for selling hedging can wait for high - price opportunities to lock in profits. Pay attention to the US August non - farm payroll data and beware of the risk of copper prices falling from high levels. In the long term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and the growth of green copper demand [6]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Market Review - Shanghai zinc is oscillating narrowly [9]. 3.3.2 Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the processing fee is rising. Although a smelter in Guangxi will conduct maintenance, the overall supply is increasing. It is the off - season for demand, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating while the LME inventory is decreasing, with the risk of a soft squeeze still remaining [9]. 3.3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, waiting for more macro - data guidance. In the long term, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [9]. 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. 3.4.2 Industrial Logic - The supply of bauxite from Guinea is relatively abundant. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production is increasing slightly, and the inventory is also rising. The demand side shows a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [12]. 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - Go long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [13]. 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Review - Nickel prices are rebounding from a low level, and stainless steel is also showing a rebound trend [15]. 3.5.2 Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. The domestic nickel industry chain has a supply - demand divide, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory is gradually decreasing, but the effect of steel - mill production cuts is weakening [16]. 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [17]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 3% [19]. 3.6.2 Industrial Logic - The renewal of a mining license in Jiangxi has alleviated market concerns about supply. The production and inventory of lithium carbonate are both decreasing slightly, and the demand side is improving with the approaching peak season [20]. 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the support near the annual line in the range of 74,500 - 76,700 yuan/ton [21].

Report Information - Authors: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The non - ferrous sector is expected to gradually recover, with warming expectations of interest rate cuts and positive demand expectations. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period is approaching, and there may be short - term recoveries in non - ferrous metals, but the upward movement requires positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals. However, the contradiction between strong reality and weak expectations will cause fluctuations and adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is trending towards recovery. Interest rate cut expectations are warming up. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting interest rate cut expectations. Non - ferrous metals continued to fluctuate and recover this week. Attention should be paid to the resonance signals between macro and micro factors. The upward space needs positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper have turned to a situation of both supply and demand booming, with demand rising faster. The price center is expected to shift upwards, with short - term support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and pressure at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The supply in China is increasing while demand is weak. Zinc prices are fluctuating and rebounding, with short - term support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23200. It is recommended to be slightly bullish in the short - term [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and falling in the high - level range. It is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and pressure at 21000 - 21200. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and consolidating [5][13]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are in a weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: The supply is shrinking, and demand is in the peak - season expectation. Lead prices are fluctuating and rebounding. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless steel is following nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both. Nickel has support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 123000 - 125000; stainless steel has support at 12700 - 12800 and pressure at 13000 - 13200 [9][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 79780 with a 0.47% increase; zinc closed at 22175 with a 0.16% increase; aluminum closed at 20645 with a 0.46% decrease; alumina closed at 3008 with a 0.92% decrease; tin closed at 273240 with a 1.94% decrease; lead closed at 16855 with a 0.15% decrease; nickel closed at 123450 with a 1.44% increase; stainless steel closed at 12950 with a 1.05% increase; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20275 with a 0.37% decrease [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Analyzes the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, and net short - position changes of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, etc., and the influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Presents the spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][24][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Contains various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio, and the price differences between different varieties [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Includes various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][69][71]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures continue to rise, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, reaching a trading level around $3,547 per ounce, with a peak of $3,557.10 per ounce during the day [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The macroeconomic and geopolitical news is favorable for precious metals, with reports indicating that India is actively selling U.S. government bonds while increasing its gold reserves [1] - The market's anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has intensified, contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has further fueled demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3: Investment Caution - Investors are advised to remain cautious during this gold rally, as historical peaks often trigger significant profit-taking, similar to the situation observed in April of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to significant gains in gold-related stocks [1][3][7]. Price Movements - On September 1, COMEX gold prices peaked at $3552.4 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $3534.1 set in early August [1][3]. - The domestic futures market also saw a surge, with the Shanghai gold futures contract breaking through 800 yuan per gram [1]. Market Reactions - The rise in international gold prices has led to a substantial increase in A-share precious metal stocks, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold hitting their daily price limits [4]. - In the past week, gold prices have increased by over $80 per ounce, marking a four-day consecutive rise and drawing global investor attention [5]. Economic Indicators - The gold price increase is attributed to the dovish signals from the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, where Fed Chair Powell's remarks suggested a potential restart of interest rate cuts [8][9]. - Recent economic data, including the core PCE index, has reinforced expectations for rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [8][9]. Investment Sentiment - Fund managers believe that gold has further upward potential, although caution is advised regarding the market's anticipation of rate cuts [10][11]. - The ongoing trend of central banks, including China's, increasing gold reserves is seen as a supportive factor for gold prices [8][11]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by weakening dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks, will continue to favor gold as a safe-haven asset [11][12]. - The narrative of "de-dollarization" and the increasing allocation of gold assets by emerging market central banks are expected to drive long-term demand for gold [11][12].

【导读】金价飙升，再创历史新高，基金经理解读投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 国际金价再刷新历史高点。 9月1日上午，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，越过8月高 点再创新高。而国内期货市场，沪金主力合约2510早间大涨，盘中突破800元/克。 高位震荡近半年后，近期国际金价重拾升势。受访公募机构及人士普遍认为，黄金 在消化了 前期美国经济数据反弹和关税冲突缓和带来的利空后，近期开始重新受降息驱动进入上行行 情。展望后市，黄金具备进一步上行的空间，但需警惕市场提前交易降息预期。 金价创历史新高 黄金股全线飙涨 9月第一个交易日，COMEX黄金价格盘中最高冲抵3552.4美元/盎司，突破了8月初创下的 3534.1美元/盎司的历史高点。 受国际金价上涨提振，A股贵金属板块大幅领涨。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，中金黄金、湖 南黄金、湖南白银、西部黄金涨停，晓程科技涨超13%，赤峰黄金涨超8%，山东黄金、招金 黄金涨超7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 3472 ...