1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish Rebound [1] - LPG: Bearish Rebound [1] - L: Bearish Rebound [1] - PP: Bearish Rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Bullish Direction [2] - Urea: Bullish - biased Consolidation [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish Rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish Continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish Continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical risks in the energy and chemical industries have been priced in, and the subsequent geopolitical trends in the Middle East and South America should be closely monitored. The overall supply in the industry is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical situations. Some products are in a bearish rebound or consolidation state, while others are facing downward pressure in the medium - to long - term [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.19%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC up 2.34% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, Middle East geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threat led to a rebound in oil prices. In the long - term, due to oversupply during the off - season and the expansion of OPEC + production, oil prices are under downward pressure [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East led to a short - term rebound in oil prices. Iran's current floating crude oil inventory is about 170 million barrels. India's fuel consumption in December reached a record high. As of January 2, US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, OPEC +'s production increase will push oil prices into a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC + regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, it is under pressure. Focus on the SC range of [445 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 14, the PG main contract closed at 4308 yuan/ton, up 1.22% month - on - month [14]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it rebounds with oil prices, and in the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. The refinery's production decreased, but the downstream chemical demand has resilience, and the inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: From a supply - demand perspective, the oversupply of upstream crude oil will lead to a downward shift in the price center. In the short - term, there is uncertainty in oil prices, and in the long - term, it is bearish. Focus on the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract had a certain increase, and the basis was repaired to the flat - water state [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support improved, and the basis was repaired. The proportion of Iranian imports increased, and the planned device maintenance increased, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased, and the market is expected to continue to repair profits [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the L range of [6800 - 6950] [20]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract rose slightly [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances and the rush to export of acrylonitrile downstream led to the strengthening of acrylonitrile. The supply - demand is weak, and the demand enters the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics and focus on the PP range of [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract showed a slight decline [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates led to a short - term expectation of a rush to export. The domestic start - up rate increased, and the supply - demand is in a weak state. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the V range of [4800 - 5000] [27]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, and the processing fee improved [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the supply - side device changes are small, and the overall planned maintenance volume is high. The downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost - side PX is in a weak balance. There is a slight accumulation of inventory from January to February, but the outlook is positive from the perspective of production and demand [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the TA05 range of [5100 - 5200] [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract decreased slightly [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is increasing, with inventory accumulation pressure in January. It lacks upward driving forces and follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG05 range of [3830 - 3899] [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract increased with reduced positions [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas methanol device loads have increased. The supply - side pressure still exists, and the demand has slightly improved. The cost support is weak and stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space is limited [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the MA05 range of [2270 - 2310] [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract showed a certain increase [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load has increased, and the demand is weak. The winter storage is progressing steadily, but the positive impact is limited. The domestic supply - demand is loose, and there is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply - side pressure. Focus on the UR05 range of [1780 - 1830] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 14, the NG main contract closed at 3.419 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29% month - on - month [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand support has decreased recently. The inventory in the US has decreased. In the winter, the demand has support, but the supply pressure leads to downward - pressured prices [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [2.725 - 3.370] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose, and the valuation is gradually returning to normal [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price rebounded, and the geopolitical situation in South America and the Middle East should be monitored. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the BU range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract showed a weak shock [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at a record high, and the supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the profit of three processes has turned negative. The weak demand in the real estate market restricts the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract showed a weak shock [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has increased counter - seasonally. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to long - term. The real estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the SA range of [1180 - 1230] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: PX, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [10][11][16][39][44][69] - **Neutral Trends**: Rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, pure benzene [13][19][22][30][35][48][52][57][58][87][95] - **Negative Trends**: Caustic soda, PVC, container shipping index (European line), offset printing paper [25][66][71][90] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals of various energy and chemical futures, including price changes, supply - demand relationships, and market news, and provides investment suggestions based on trend strength and market conditions [1][2] 2. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - supported, supply is loose, and downstream demand is expected to decline. Suggest long PX short PTA and long SC short PX hedging [6][10] - **PTA**: Cost - supported, high processing fees, and polyester production cuts need to be observed. Suggest long SC short PTA [10][11] - **MEG**: Short - term rebound, pay attention to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [11] Rubber - Wide - range oscillation, with inventory increasing in Qingdao and mixed performance in the tire industry [13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up, affected by geopolitical conflicts and the supply - demand of butadiene [16][18] LLDPE - Futures and spot prices resonate, with low standard product production. There are still concerns about supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20] PP - Cost - supported by downstream export rush, but overall fundamentals are weak at the end of the year [22][23] Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation, facing problems of high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25][27] Paper Pulp - Oscillation, with weak downstream demand and price adjustment of broad - leaf pulp [30][33][34] Glass - The original sheet price is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is average [35][36] Methanol - Oscillation with support, affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations [39][42] Urea - Medium - term upward oscillation, with inventory reduction and improved fundamentals [44][46][47] Benzene, Styrene - Short - term oscillation, with high valuation and concerns about supply - demand in the medium term [48][49][50] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little, and the demand support is gradually weakening [52][54] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, affected by geopolitical factors. Propylene: Spot supply - demand tightens, with a strong trend [57][58] PVC - Weak oscillation, with high production, high inventory, and weak demand [66][67] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Sharp rise, short - term easy to rise and hard to fall. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Follow the rise, with a slight contraction in the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels [69] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Weak operation, affected by geopolitical situations and supply - demand in the shipping market [71][82][83] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - Both are oscillating strongly. For short - fiber, hold long TA short PF; for bottle - chip, hold long - short spread arbitrage [87][88] Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions, with stable prices and weak demand in the market [90][91][93] Pure Benzene - Short - term oscillation, with inventory accumulation and price adjustment [95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "sideways" for the black building materials industry [6] Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between reality and expectation, with prices mainly moving sideways. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, coal mines are resuming production in January, and Mongolian coal imports have rebounded to a high level, so there is still high supply pressure, and the futures prices are expected to move sideways. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak. As steel mills gradually resume production, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, and fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have relatively high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [2]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [3]. 3. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the pressure of upstream inventory reduction is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity removal [3]. 5. Specific Varieties Analysis - Steel: The spot market trading is average. With the end of some steel mill overhauls, iron and steel production continues to increase. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. But with the resumption of steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will move in a wide sideways range [8]. - Iron ore: The spot price is moving sideways. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals have increased. The fundamentals on both the supply and demand sides still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term [8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [9]. - Coke: The cost side of coke has strong support, and the spot price has started to rise. The demand for coke is well - supported by the resumption of steel mills, and the inventory of steel mills is steadily increasing. The supply - demand structure is expected to tighten, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [12]. - Coking coal: The supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [12]. - Glass: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply and demand are in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly [13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. The futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level in the medium term [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Alumina: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Tin: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows complex trends, with different metals affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper increase positions and fluctuate at a high level, with the market competing around 105,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was at 103,915 yuan. Futures warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 27,000 tons to 149,300 tons. Attention is on the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on precious metals trading sentiment [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell again. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 80 yuan, - 240 yuan, and 60 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods widened to - 200 yuan. Short - term bullish sentiment in precious and non - ferrous metals is still strong. The fundamentals deviate to some extent, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in a state of significant surplus. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and short - selling can be considered when the basis is low [2] Zinc - Funds continue to flow into the zinc market, and the capital congestion degree further increases. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumer side, and the divergence between bulls and bears increases. The zinc price has recovered all the declines in 2025, and the callback pressure is gradually increasing. Short positions can be considered above 24,800 yuan/ton, and the support at 23,000 yuan/ton should be watched during the callback [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 855,000 tons. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and downstream buyers can buy at low prices [6] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin hit the daily limit for the second time this week. The spot tin price adjusted to 485,500 yuan, and the warehouse receipts increased by 862 tons to 7,107 tons. High prices suppress demand, while supply remains stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the silver market rhythm, and holding short - call options until expiration can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during the session. The sales strategy of upstream brine plants is changing. The overall demand maintains strong resilience. The market inventory increased for the first week, but the downstream inventory decreased rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon maintains a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand fundamentals. The overall spot price of industrial silicon is stalemate, and the futures price follows the volatile trend [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased positions and fluctuated. The price of polysilicon M - type re - feed material is 51,000 - 58,500 yuan/ton. The trading logic of polysilicon has changed, and the market sentiment has significantly cooled down. Participation should be cautious [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak trading, with steel prices remaining volatile. The iron ore market is mainly under observation, and iron ore prices are fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose supply and demand, and prices are also fluctuating. The thermal coal market shows rising prices at the pithead, while downstream trading remains in a stalemate [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,303 yuan/ton. Spot steel trading was generally weak, with prices basically stable and small fluctuations in the market. Purchases were mainly for low-cost essential needs, with few speculative and spot-futures transactions [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For building materials, the fundamentals have slightly weakened. Steel mills are resuming production quickly, while downstream winter storage replenishment is delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. However, as it is the consumption off-season for steel, the market has a relatively high tolerance for inventory. For plates, the fundamental contradictions are limited, but high inventory always suppresses price elasticity. In the short term, prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter-period, inter-variety, spot-futures, or options [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices fluctuated slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports also fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for essential needs. The total iron ore sales at major national ports reached 841,000 tons, a 11.78% increase from the previous day. The cumulative sales of forward spot iron ore were 1.515 million tons (11 transactions), a 156.78% increase from the previous day, with 1.165 million tons sold by mines [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Currently, with high iron ore valuations, global shipments remain at a high level, and the total inventory has been rising continuously. The liquidity of some port supplies has been locked up, and the actual fundamentals of iron ore are better than the statistical data. High ore prices stimulate supply. If the negotiations are finalized later, port supplies may cause a supply shock, and there is great uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. In the short term, with steel mills resuming production and winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices will maintain a fluctuating trend. Future attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations and steel mills' replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. The price of coking coal for furnace use increased, and coking profits were somewhat restored. The supply in the production areas has been steadily increasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal around 1,060 - 1,080 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of the coke market is currently relatively balanced, and coke prices are temporarily stable. On the raw material side, coking coal prices have recently increased, and the market has high purchasing enthusiasm with large order volumes. Coking plants' production enthusiasm is average, as is the downstream purchasing enthusiasm. For raw materials, downstream buyers mostly purchase as needed, and coal mines' production enthusiasm is at a normal level. In the short term, the coke market will mainly remain stable, and prices may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to steel mills' production resumption and replenishment. For coking coal, supply and demand are loose, imports have increased, domestic high - quality production capacity has been released, and the inventory at ports and factories is at a high level, with great pressure to reduce inventory. In the short term, it will also mainly fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and downstream replenishment progress [6] - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the overall situation is still strong, with good non - power and other terminal demand, and normal downstream replenishment. Most coal mines have good sales, with many coal - hauling trucks, and prices continue to rise. However, some coal mines have poor sales, and prices have been slightly reduced. Currently, coal mines say that transactions are mainly through long - term agreements, and there are few market coal transactions. Later, coal prices may stabilize. At ports, trading remains sluggish. Affected by the inverted upstream shipping prices, port quotes are relatively high, but most downstream buyers are observing, with only sporadic inquiries. There are serious differences in the market. Some believe that there is an expectation of Spring Festival replenishment, and with continuous upstream price increases, the willingness to hold prices is strong under cost support. Some market participants believe that current downstream consumption is lower than expected and that the price increase at the pithead is not sustainable, so they have a strong willingness to sell [7] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to rise slightly, but downstream demand has not met expectations, and the temperature is relatively high in the coming week, so there are still differences in views. However, the supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ethylene glycol, natural gas [2][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Consolidation**: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Sideways Consolidation**: Urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances lead to a rebound in oil prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1][7][9] - **LPG**: It rebounds following the cost - end oil price in the short - term, but in the medium - to - long - term, the price is expected to decline due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil [1][13][14] - **L**: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market is expected to repair profits [1][18] - **PP**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase, and the cost end strengthens. The supply - demand is weak, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to PDH device dynamics [1][22] - **PVC**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens, and there is an expectation of future maintenance [1][25] - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05 [2][27][28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2][30][31] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05 [2][34][36] - **Urea**: The supply - side pressure increases. Although there are winter storage and spring fertilizer use expectations, be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05 [2][38][40] - **Natural Gas**: The supply side is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Although there is support in the demand season, the upward space is limited [4][44] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical situation in South America leads to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The price center moves up, but there is still room for compression in the medium - to - long - term [4][48][49] - **Glass**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound space. The price fluctuates within a range [4][53] - **Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, and the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term. The price fluctuates at the bottom [4][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On January 12, international oil prices rose. WTI increased by 2.35%, Brent by 2.18%, and SC by 1.87% [5][6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a rebound in oil prices. Core: In the off - season, crude oil supply exceeds demand, and global and US inventories are increasing [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ production expansion puts pressure on prices. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 445] [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On January 12, the PG main contract closed at 4236 yuan/ton, up 0.33% month - on - month [12] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: It rebounds following the oil price. Long - term: The oil price is under pressure, and the supply - demand is relatively stable. The inventory decreases [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6737 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price of naphtha rises, strengthening cost support. The parking ratio increases, and production is expected to decline. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market is expected to continue to repair profits. Pay attention to the range of L [6600 - 6750] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.7% month - on - month [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase the cost end. The supply - demand is weak in January, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics. Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6600] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 4905 yuan/ton, down 1.3% month - on - month [23] - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with a positive spread between months. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4950] [25] PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past three months [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: The processing fee improves. Supply: The overall maintenance intensity is high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5080 - 5170] [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 3639 yuan/ton, at a low - level position in the past six months [29] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is relatively low. Supply: Domestic production capacity utilization increases, and the overseas maintenance is expected to be high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol reduces positions and rises, and the port basis weakens [34] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: Domestic and overseas production capacity utilization increases, and there is supply pressure in January. Demand: It improves slightly. Cost: The support is weakly stable [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2219 - 2269] [36] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1777 yuan/ton, at a high - level position this year [37][39] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: The overall production capacity utilization increases, and the supply pressure exists. Demand: It weakens, and winter storage has limited positive effects. Inventory: It is at a relatively high level [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Winter storage has limited positive effects, and there is an export window and spring fertilizer use expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 9, the NG main contract closed at 3.169 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 6.99% month - on - month [43] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is abundant, and the recent demand is stable. The price is under pressure [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, there is demand support, but the supply is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.131 - 3.576] [44] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 11, the BU main contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in South America lead to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The cost profit decreases, the supply decreases, and the demand increases slightly. The inventory increases [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation returns to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to risks due to the uncertainty of raw material supply. Pay attention to the range of BU [3050 - 3150] [49] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.1% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound. The supply - demand is weak, and the profit of three processes turns negative [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [55] - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory decreases slightly [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates at the bottom. Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong; Overall view: run strongly [1][5] - **Driving Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a truce, the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. However, domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. Also, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Benefiting from the overall strength of energy - chemical products, Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on the night of Tuesday and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong; Overall view: run strongly [1][7] - **Driving Logic**: The spot price of butadiene has risen sharply due to the tight supply of northern sources and downstream replenishment demand. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some plants and a decrease in supply expectations. In addition, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected, and the crude oil futures maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern, strengthening the cost support. Under the bullish atmosphere, synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on the night of Tuesday and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the industry is mainly in an oscillatory operation. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, in January, coal mines resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports rebounded to a high level, so the high - supply pressure still exists, and the futures prices have corrected from high levels. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. In the off - season, demand has seasonally weakened. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end has become more obvious, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has weakened, but the futures market still shows resilience. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and arrivals are expected to remain at a high level. The demand side has a mixed situation of blast furnace maintenance and resumption, and the inventory pressure is still accumulating [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, leading steel enterprises in East China announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the spot price will follow the increase [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be alleviated, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream has great pressure to destock, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the supply and demand of the silicon iron market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the sector [2]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disturbances in the supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in oversupply. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][14]. 5. Steel - The cost provides support, but the inventory suppresses. The futures market oscillates. The spot market trading is weak, and the demand has seasonally weakened. The overall steel inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate [7]. 6. Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [106]. - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On January 13, 2026, the steel industry chain index was 2024.77, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a decline of 0.72% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.09% in the past month, and an increase of 2.47% since the beginning of the year [108].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term EB2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The cost of international oil prices has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level, and the downstream operating rate will change differently [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the trading volume was 352,157 lots, a decrease of 155,060 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders was 375,459 lots, an increase of 594 lots; the net long position was - 37,350 lots, a decrease of 3,919 lots; the short position was 412,809 lots, an increase of 4,513 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 7081 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The open interest of the active contract was 242,728 lots, a decrease of 15,148 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 360 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6964 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan. The FOB Korea intermediate price was 895 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 905 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6925, 7270, 7050, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 200, 165, 175, and 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 19.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 399.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 277 cents/gallon, an increase of 2 cents; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 789 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5400, 5405, and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100, 70, and 80 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.92%, an increase of 0.69%. The national inventory of styrene was 162,340 tons, a decrease of 9,420 tons; the inventory in the East China main port was 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 3.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 46.72%, 69.8%, 58.9%, 39%, and 81.68% respectively, with changes of +3.08%, - 0.1%, - 1.5%, +3%, and +1.16% [2]. Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene factory output was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons. As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a decrease of 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 100,600 tons, a decrease of 23.96% from last week [2]. Viewpoint Summary - There are no new plans for shutdown or restart of large - scale domestic styrene plants in the near future. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level. The operating rate of downstream EPS may increase slightly in the short term; the operating rate of the PS industry is expected to decline; the short - term supply of the ABS industry will not change much. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The international oil price has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Medium-term outlook: Sideways [5] Core Viewpoints - In the off-season, the fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to monitor the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation. The prices of furnace materials are still expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by the steel mills' profits [5]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, with supply-side disturbance expectations. The resumption of hot metal production and pre-festival restocking support the ore price, but the high inventory restricts the upside. The supply and demand at both ends in reality remain to be verified, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - Coking coal: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the behavior of over - importing coking coal from Mongolia has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [2]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream de - stocking pressure is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the trend of the sector [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [2]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][5]. Steel - The pressure of inventory accumulation is becoming more prominent, but the cost support is relatively strong. The spot market transactions are average. As some steel mills end their maintenance, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to increase. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures market will fluctuate widely [6]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals are operating at a high level. The supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side has increased due to the resumption of production of blast furnaces and the increase in restocking demand. However, the steel mills' inventory accumulation speed is slow. The port inventory continues to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The leading steel enterprises in East China have announced a price increase, and the spot price is expected to follow suit [8]. Glass - The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the processing factories are approaching the holiday. The supply may decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle - reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [12]. Soda Ash - The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upper price. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation is further intensifying. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. Manganese Silicon - The trend of the black sector is relatively warm, but there is still pressure on the upper limit of the futures price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [14][15]. Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand in the market are both weak in the off - season, and it mainly follows the trend of the sector. The fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the sector, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of prices and the control of production in the main producing areas [16].