投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 政策利好发酵，钢价低位回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 地产利好政策再现，叠加两会期间限产扰动，钢市情绪回暖，钢价低位回升，但供需格 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心观点 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 政策利好提振，钢矿低位回升 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价低位回升，录得 1.72%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 供稳需弱局面下螺纹钢产业矛盾累积，钢价仍将承压，相对利好的是政 策预期与成本支撑，预期现实博弈下钢价延续震荡运行，关注国内政策 情况。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 （1）崔东树：全国乘用车行业 2026 年 1 月末库存 357 万辆、库存 70 天 热轧卷板：主力期价有所走强，录得 1.19%日涨幅，量增仓稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side has strong support, driving up the spot and futures prices of asphalt. The asphalt market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand with limited contradictions. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Analysis - On February 24, the closing price of the main BU2604 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3348 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 1.67% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The open interest was 146,000 lots, a net increase of 2521 lots, and the trading volume was 154,400 lots, a net decrease of 14,510 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3506 - 3700 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3290 - 3340 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton in South China, and 3250 - 3300 yuan/ton in East China [1] - During the Spring Festival holiday, the situation in Iran heated up again, and the differences in the US - Iran negotiations were still large. The market was worried about the US military strike on Iran, causing crude oil prices to rise significantly. On the first trading day after the holiday, the asphalt futures market rose following the external market, and the spot prices also generally increased, but the actual trading volume was low [1] - In terms of asphalt's own fundamentals, the overall market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand with limited contradictions. Due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil supply, domestic asphalt refineries have gradually started to switch raw materials. In February, some refineries purchased Iranian crude oil from floating storage and bonded tanks to replace Merey crude oil. Considering the discount of Iranian oil, the increase in the cost side may be somewhat controllable. However, if the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, the risk on the raw material side will further increase [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation and bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The weak real - estate data has suppressed the rebound height of glass, but with the approaching of the traditional glass consumption season, attention should be paid to the potential for a phased consumption increase and continuous inventory reduction. For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand remains relatively loose [1]. - After the holiday, with the resumption of production in downstream steel mills, the demand for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is expected to improve. However, factors such as inventory pressure, cost support, and power price policies will affect their prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The futures market showed a strong - oscillating trend and recovered at the end of the session. In the spot market, the shipment of factories in the Shahe area was good, while the trading in the East China market was average, and the prices in other regions were generally stable. The spot price of float glass was 1269 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Soda Ash: The futures market also showed a strong - oscillating trend and recovered at the end. The domestic soda ash market was weak, with prices declining slightly. The inventory reduction rate slowed down and gradually shifted to inventory accumulation. The latest soda ash operating rate was 83.83%, and the device operation was normal [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The weak real - estate data has limited the rebound of glass. As it enters the traditional consumption season, attention should be paid to consumption and inventory changes. Currently, it is in the stage of near - month capital game [1]. - Soda Ash: The demand for float glass is weak due to real - estate data. After the spring maintenance, there is pressure for further inventory increase, and the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: After the holiday, the ferromanganese futures market oscillated and adjusted, with a single - day increase in positions of 41,065. The market was in a wait - and - see state. The price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market declined slightly after the holiday, with a single - day increase in positions of 15,984. The spot market was stable, waiting for the recovery of steel mills' rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: The fundamental contradiction has not further expanded, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday, the demand is expected to improve. The firm price of manganese ore may increase the cost of ferromanganese [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply pressure has decreased as enterprises maintain low - load production. The resumption of production in steel mills will boost the rigid demand. However, the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and the relatively loose overall production capacity will suppress the price [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is facing accumulated contradictions and weakening cost support, with steel prices under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory and weak demand [1] - Iron ore has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, high - level inventory for a long time, and faces downward pressure in the short - term [3] - Coking coal and coke futures and spot prices are running weakly, and the future trend depends on factors such as downstream production resumption and cost [6] - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of thermal coal are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating, with a long - term pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market weakened yesterday, with the rebar futures main contract closing at 3027 yuan/ton, down 0.92%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closing at 3195 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The spot market was stable, with few quotes due to the lack of obvious construction starts in downstream areas [1] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The steel industry is in a situation of stable supply and weak demand, with continuous accumulation of contradictions, a significant increase in inventory, and steel prices under pressure. The supply pressure of plates remains, and demand continues to weaken seasonally. The inventory of the five major steel products is still increasing, and steel prices will follow the cost in the short - term [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore price oscillated slightly downward yesterday. On February 24, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly compared with the previous working day. The trading volume in the spot market was cold, with a cumulative transaction of 40.5 tons on February 24, and the average daily transaction this month was 55.7 tons, a 40.62% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 23.5% this period, with Australia's shipment volume increasing by 36.7% and Brazil's by 9%. The arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2152 tons, a 11% decrease, and at 47 ports was 2321.1 tons, a 7% decrease. The arrival volume of imported iron ore is still at a historical high. Before the Spring Festival, the molten iron output increased slightly, and after the steel mills completed restocking, the speculative demand declined. The port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased significantly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coke main contract closed at 1634.5 yuan/ton, down 38.5 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decrease; the coking coal main contract closed at 1101.5 yuan/ton, down 18.5 yuan/ton, a 1.65% decrease. Coke spot prices are stable to weak. During the Spring Festival, coke enterprises produced normally, but due to poor logistics and sufficient downstream inventory, the shipment was slow, and the factory inventory accumulated while the raw coal inventory decreased. The market still has a downward expectation after the festival. Coking coal supply decreased during the Spring Festival, and the speculative demand weakened. After the festival, the supply and demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines determines the supply - demand pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of spot and futures, the coal prices in the main production areas are oscillating. Recently, some coal mines have gradually resumed production and sales, and the supply has slowly increased. The terminal procurement is small, and the overall demand has not been significantly boosted. At the port, the market continues to be strong, with low inventory. The import market is stable to strong, and the future import volume is expected to decrease [7] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for propylene has increased, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream industries after the holiday. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, but the actual return of major PDH plants under the current profit pressure needs to be monitored. The demand may face pressure due to high propylene prices and compressed profits. The cost side is strongly supported by the rising international oil prices and propane prices. The future trends will be mainly driven by the cost of crude oil and propane, the maintenance of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production follow - up under cost pressure [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, the 03 - 04 contract spread, the PL03 - 05 contract spread, and the market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [7][9][16]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [22][27][30]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - This part covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][47]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - It includes the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [63][64]. 4. Market News and Important Data 4.1 Propylene - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6344 yuan/ton (+226), the East China spot price is 6550 yuan/ton (+120), the North China spot price is 6525 yuan/ton (+80), the East China basis is 206 yuan/ton (-106), the Shandong basis is 181 yuan/ton (-146), the capacity utilization is 73% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 221 US dollars/ton (-10), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 81 US dollars/ton (-3), the import profit is - 383 yuan/ton (+5), and the in - plant inventory is 45170 tons (+1840) [2]. 4.2 Propylene Downstream - The capacity utilization of PP powder is 22% (-3.94%), and the production profit is - 275 yuan/ton (-30); the capacity utilization of propylene oxide is 80% (+8%), and the production profit is - 2 yuan/ton (+140); the capacity utilization of n - butanol is 88% (+2%), and the production profit is 393 yuan/ton (+151); the capacity utilization of octanol is 99% (+4%), and the production profit is - 70 yuan/ton (-58); the capacity utilization of acrylic acid is 86% (+2%), and the production profit is 200 yuan/ton (-35); the capacity utilization of acrylonitrile is 75% (+3%), and the production profit is - 1344 yuan/ton (-92); the capacity utilization of phenol - acetone is 89% (+0%), and the production profit is - 834 yuan/ton (-118) [2]. 5. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, the demand remained low, and the cost support increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8490 for the 2605 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continued to decrease, the demand in various downstream sectors also decreased, and the cost support remained stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48240 - 50370 for the 2605 contract [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The supply last week was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: The demand last week was 60,000 tons, a 20.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the demand remained low [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9769.7 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 13, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 805 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 200,800 tons, a 2.52% decrease compared to the previous week; the main port inventory was 136,000 tons, a 1.45% decrease compared to the previous week [6][15]. - **Disk**: MA20 was downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule decreased and remained at a low level, the demand recovery showed signs, and the cost support increased. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8490 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: The production last week was 20,100 tons, with no change compared to the previous week. The production schedule for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 10.05GW, a 3.17% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 300,600 tons, a 6.14% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells in January was 41.44GW, a 11.37% decrease compared to the previous month, and the inventory of external sales factories last week was 9.31GW, a 1.52% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The production of components in January was 35.2GW, a 9.04% decrease compared to the previous month, and the domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month; the European monthly inventory was 34.2GW, a 9.26% increase compared to the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,420 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 13, the price of N - type dense material was 52,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3945 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 349,000 tons, a 2.34% increase compared to the previous week, and it was at a high level in the same period of history [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 was downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [9]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule continued to decrease, the demand in various downstream sectors also decreased, and the overall demand showed a continuous decline. The cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48240 - 50370 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of changes, and the social inventory and sample enterprise inventory also changed [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of various contracts and spot prices of polysilicon showed different degrees of changes, and the weekly total inventory increased [17]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon were presented, and the cost trends of different regions and specifications were also shown [19][35]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The disk price trend and basis trend of polysilicon were presented, and the cost trend of the polysilicon industry was also shown [22][67]. 3.4 Inventory and Production Trends 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - The inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and the production and capacity utilization trends were presented [25][29]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - The inventory trend and production trend of polysilicon were presented [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were presented, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance situations [42][45]. 3.5.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was presented, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance situations [69]. 3.6 Downstream Industry Trends 3.6.1 Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC in the organic silicon industry were presented, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [48][50]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of the aluminum alloy industry were presented, as well as the demand situations in the automotive and wheel hub sectors [56][61]. 3.6.3 Polysilicon Downstream - The price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry were presented, as well as the cost - profit trends of components and the photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends [72][84][89].

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260224 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 6 | | LLDPE：节中地缘扰动，成本支撑偏强震荡 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260224 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：价格中枢上移 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：基本面维持偏紧，关注节后补库动态 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：开盘或补涨，短期波动继续放大 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，区间思路对待 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX and PTA: Bullish [1] - MEG: Neutral, with interval operation recommended [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: Supported by cost, expected to rise after the Spring Festival. Long PXN. The PX price in US dollars increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the domestic opening price is expected to make up for the increase after the festival. The PX-naphtha spread has rebounded, and the PX operating rate remains high. The polyester operating rate will gradually recover after the festival, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [7]. - PTA: Supported by cost, with a short - term bullish trend. The PX price in US dollars increased during the Spring Festival, and the domestic PTA opening price is expected to make up for the increase. From March, PTA will enter a de - stocking pattern. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread position. The downstream polyester price has been raised, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [8]. - MEG: In an interval shock market. Long PTA and short MEG. The overseas ethylene glycol price remained stable during the Spring Festival, and the domestic opening price on the first day after the festival is expected to remain stable. The supply - side operating rate is rising, and there will be significant inventory accumulation in February. The basis and monthly spread may be weak. The unilateral price has limited downside space but the upside space is not yet open, so interval operation is recommended [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price and Market**: On February 23, the Asian paraxylene price assessment declined, reflecting the weakness of the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea indicators decreased by $1.33/ton. The front - month ICE Brent futures contract fell by 66 cents/barrel, while the Platts - assessed naphtha C+F Japan price rose by $2.50/ton. Two CFR Unv1/China transactions were reported. Market participants are waiting for pricing cues from Chinese counterparts [3]. - **Spread and Export**: The physical PX - naphtha spread narrowed to $3.83/ton. South Korea's preliminary export statistics for the first 20 days of February totaled 364,079 tons, with 339,066 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland [4]. - **Outlook**: Cost support is strong. After the Spring Festival, the PX price is expected to rise. The PX - naphtha spread has recovered to $315/ton. The PX operating rate remains high, and the Asian PX operating rate is around 84%. The PTA operating rate is around 75%, and attention should be paid to the restart time of Dushan Energy's maintenance. The polyester operating rate will gradually recover after the festival [7]. PTA - **Device Changes**: During the holiday, Ineos' 1.1 million - ton PTA device had a short - term shutdown and has now recovered, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA device is restarting [6]. - **Polyester Market**: On the seventh day of the first lunar month, major polyester manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to sell products. Driven by the rise in oil prices during the Spring Festival, the prices of POY/FDY/DTY products mostly increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the discounts were reduced [6]. - **Outlook**: Cost - supported, with a short - term bullish trend. The PX price in US dollars increased during the Spring Festival, and the domestic PTA opening price is expected to make up for the increase. There will be inventory accumulation from January to February, and from March, PTA will enter a de - stocking pattern. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread position [8]. MEG - **Price and Supply**: The overseas ethylene glycol price remained stable during the Spring Festival at $441/ton, and the domestic opening price on the first day after the festival is expected to remain stable. The supply - side operating rate at home and abroad is rising. Saudi Yansab's 750,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant has completed short - term maintenance, and Kuwait's Equate's 615,000 - ton device has restarted. The domestic operating rate is around 77%, and the coal - based device operating rate has reached a high of 78.6%. Future attention should be paid to the rotational inspection of Yulin Chemical's devices [8]. - **Inventory and Market**: In February, ethylene glycol will still be in a significant inventory accumulation pattern, and the basis and monthly spread may be weak. The unilateral price has limited downside space but the upside space is not yet open, so interval operation is recommended [8].