Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June after four consecutive months of decline, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [2][3] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) continued to face downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting weak domestic demand and excess supply in the market [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in CPI was less severe than seasonal trends, with food prices dropping by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices saw a slight increase due to rising international oil prices [3][4] - Certain consumer goods, such as gold and platinum jewelry, experienced significant price increases of 39.2% and 15.9% year-on-year, respectively, driven by changes in international commodity prices [2][4] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is expected to support price stability and recovery in various sectors, including automotive and household appliances [1][5] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with pressures from domestic demand weakness and external factors such as tariffs and slowing foreign demand [4][5] - Some industries, particularly high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, indicating potential growth opportunities [5] - The overall economic environment remains complex, but macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating consumption are anticipated to gradually restore domestic demand [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that multiple cement companies are expected to report positive half-year results due to ongoing industry efforts to combat "involution" and a decline in costs [1][2] - Fujian Cement announced a projected net profit of approximately 20.67 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, driven by peak production strategies and a slight increase in sales volume [1] - Tapai Group anticipates a net profit of 407 million to 452 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-100%, attributed to increased sales volume and reduced costs [1] Group 2 - The cement association has issued guidelines to further promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth," encouraging companies to report discrepancies between registered and actual production capacities [1] - If all inefficient capacities exit the market, the industry's actual capacity utilization rate could improve by over 10%, with potential regulatory interventions accelerating this process [2] - The current low profitability in the cement sector suggests that short-term benefits may favor low-profit companies, while overall improvements will ultimately benefit both national and regional cement leaders [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for profitability recovery in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a "de-involution" campaign aimed at improving overall profitability, particularly in the cement sector, where demand is currently suppressed due to high temperatures and rainy weather [1][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies, with a year-on-year growth of 33.3%, reflecting a recovery in investment confidence among real estate enterprises [6][13]. - Price adjustments in the waterproofing materials sector are noted, with leading companies implementing price increases of 1% to 13% across various product categories, indicating a shift towards healthier competition in the consumer building materials market [6][13]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national average cement price has continued to decline, with a drop of 10-15 CNY/ton in certain regions, while some areas like Jilin and Chongqing have seen price increases of 30-50 CNY/ton [10][22]. - The cement market is under pressure with a current inventory ratio of 76.00%, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [10][22]. - The China Cement Association has initiated measures to address supply-demand imbalances, which are expected to enhance overall industry profitability [10][11]. Float Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing weak price performance, with a national average price of 1174 CNY/ton, down 3.27 CNY/ton from the previous period [11]. - Inventory levels have decreased slightly, with a total of 6.9085 million heavy boxes reported, and production has increased to 110.34 million tons [11][12]. - Despite some replenishment activities in the downstream market, overall demand remains limited, leading to expectations of continued price weakness [11][12]. Fiberglass Industry - The market for non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with prices around 3700 CNY/ton for high-end products, while electronic fiberglass prices are expected to rise due to tight supply [12]. - The main product G75 in the electronic fiberglass market is priced between 8800-9200 CNY/ton, showing stability compared to the previous week [12]. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the trend of price increases among leading companies in the waterproofing sector, which is seen as a positive sign for the industry's competitive landscape [6][13]. - Recommendations for investment include companies like Weixing New Materials, Keda Manufacturing, and Mona Lisa, which are positioned well for growth in the current market environment [14][15][16].

Core Viewpoints - The current market is experiencing a phase of consolidation rather than stagnation, with expectations for future upward movement as economic recovery and corporate earnings improve [2][9][10] - The market is characterized by a structural trend, with certain sectors showing potential for independent performance due to policy support and earnings growth [5][9] Market Overview - On the recent trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index showed relative strength, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes declined, indicating a divergence among the three major indexes [2][11] - The total trading volume across both exchanges decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [6][11] Sector Performance - The electricity sector saw significant gains, driven by the successful operation of a major thermal power plant and a favorable coal price environment, leading to positive earnings growth for many companies in this sector [7] - The cross-border payment sector also experienced an uptick, supported by the central bank's initiatives to enhance cross-border payment systems between mainland China and Hong Kong [8] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected interim performance, focusing on those with anticipated earnings improvements [3][10] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a cautionary note on the need for thorough fundamental analysis to avoid overvalued stocks [3][10] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3][10]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still within a downward trend [1] - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production and improved demand [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion above the critical point [1] Group 2 - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in the sector [1] - The service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, indicating stable conditions, with some sectors experiencing rapid growth while others show weakened activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated expansion in production and business activities [1] Group 3 - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity and maintaining ample liquidity to support key sectors [1] - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan, continuing excess renewals for four consecutive months [1] - The monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1]

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周美股、A 股领涨全球股指，其中纳指、标普 500 指数再创新高，沪指一度逼近 3500 点。行业板 块方面，煤炭、有色、建材（光伏）等周期板块在"反内卷"政策预期下表现突出，银行指数在上周五大跌后再 度回升，创历史新高。此外，美越贸易协议和中美贸易关系缓和交易下，部分消费电子、纺织服饰等板块也有表 现。外汇方面，美元指数持续走低，弱美元下全球商品价格普遍走强，国内螺纹钢、双焦价格也从底部反弹。 ·市场展望：下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变。短期来看，全球市场定价核心在于 7 月 9 日 美国与各国贸易协定进展，此前美国总统特朗普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限，但此种表态也可能是一种谈 判策略，美国对部分国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增长动能强劲，全年经济增速目标达成的压力减 轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终结果如何，出口对增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

消息面上，中国钢铁工业协会将于近期召开六届十一次理事（扩大）会议，具体议程未披露；据中钢协 数据，6月中旬重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量环比增加42万吨至1621万吨，但较上月同旬减少14万吨； 此外，Mysteel监测显示，全国22家H型钢生产企业本周开工率环比上升3.23个百分点至70.97%，产能利 用率同步提升0.9个百分点至56.83%。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 信达证券指出，钢铁行业呈现"铁水淡季不淡"特征，日均铁水产量达242.29万吨，同比增加2.35万吨， 样本钢企高炉产能利用率达90.8%。普钢价格综合指数周环比下降0.49%至3344.6元/吨，但螺纹钢高炉 吨钢利润仍保持145元/吨的可观水平。库存方面，五大钢材品种社会库存周环比下降0.72%至906.5万 吨，厂内库存增加1 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the significant issuance of local government bonds in China, amounting to 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily aimed at "debt replacement" and supporting infrastructure investment [1][2] - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of about 90%, while new special bonds issued amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the annual quota [1][2] - The urgency of "debt replacement" is highlighted as the primary task for local governments, with 42% of new special bonds in June allocated for this purpose, reflecting the pressing need to address existing debt issues [3][4] Group 2 - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with plans for approximately 1.69 trillion yuan in new bonds, including 1.47 trillion yuan in new special bonds [6] - The focus on "debt replacement" has somewhat constrained the issuance of new local government bonds, impacting project initiation [6][7] - The government is also exploring innovative uses of special bonds, such as funding investment guidance funds to support strategic emerging industries [7]