格里芬指出："对于基本面投资者而言，这是一段极其艰难的时期，因为我们所投资企业的价值正被华 盛顿快速更迭的政策主导。" 美国对冲基金大鳄、城堡投资创始人兼CEO格里芬近日表示："现在看来，持有现金或许是应对当前局 势的最佳方式。这与我们一贯倡导的主动进攻、持续创造市场价值的文化背道而驰。" 这位对冲基金亿万富翁坦言，事后看来在市场动荡时按兵不动是明智之举，四月的投资环境确实异常艰 难——在对等关税政策冲击美国股债市场后，美国政府才调整了政策方向。虽然美股目前已收复关税导 致的跌幅，但自4月2日以来的复苏之路可谓波折重重。 作为特朗普的重要金主之一，格里芬与其他富豪支持者共同质疑关税政策的合理性。 格里芬给出直白的生存建议："现在要做的只是浮水求生，避免溺亡。" 这位曾为特朗普就职典礼捐款的金融大鳄呼吁商界领袖"冷静、尊重且团结地"与特朗普及国会两院沟 通，强调维护美国金融声誉的紧迫性。 （文章来源：金十数据） 尽管如此，部分机构仍在这场风暴中表现出色。包括城堡投资在内的多家知名基金成功规避亏损——尽 管格里芬发表了谨慎的言论，但其旗舰基金当月仍实现1.3%的正收益，全球固定收益基金回报率更高 达4.6%。 格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-UK trade agreement, termed the "Economic Prosperity Agreement," represents a strategic move by the US to maintain tariffs while adjusting its trade negotiation tactics, focusing on political gains for the Trump administration [1][2][57]. - The US retains a 10% baseline tariff on the UK while reducing tariffs on automotive and steel products, and the UK has agreed to increase agricultural imports from the US and purchase Boeing aircraft worth $10 billion [1][6][57]. - The agreement is seen as a framework document without legal binding, reflecting the special ally status of the UK and the relatively limited economic significance of the trade relationship [1][12][57]. Group 2 - The US trade negotiation strategy has shifted to prioritize political achievements for Trump, with a focus on increasing tariff revenues, as evidenced by Trump's declining approval ratings [2][15][57]. - The US has softened its hawkish stance in trade negotiations, avoiding complex issues like digital service taxes and drug trade, and instead focusing on agriculture and automotive sectors [2][15][58]. - The US is actively pursuing trade negotiations with 17 economies, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, with a particular emphasis on smaller economies to quickly secure agreements [3][21][59]. Group 3 - Key contradictions in trade negotiations with the EU center around digital service taxes and automotive import barriers, with the EU maintaining a significant trade surplus with the US [3][24][59]. - The US-Japan negotiations face challenges primarily in the automotive and agricultural sectors, with Japan's agricultural policies being a significant barrier to concessions [3][30][59]. - The article suggests that future trade conflicts may evolve through issue segmentation, leading to localized agreements rather than comprehensive ones, especially with smaller economies [4][37][60]. Group 4 - The likelihood of achieving comprehensive agreements with core economies in the short term is low, and a phased approach focusing on localized agreements is deemed more realistic [4][60]. - Historical precedents indicate that US trade conflicts often end in political backlash or through WTO rulings, suggesting a cautious approach to future negotiations [4][49][60].

贸易冲突正在缓和？黄金空头持续能否强势？今夜趋势应呈现单边或是震荡？TTPS团队交易学长正在 直播中，点击观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情分析中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-UK trade agreement, termed the "Economic Prosperity Agreement," reflects a shift in US trade negotiation strategies, prioritizing political gains and maintaining tariffs as a central goal [2][17][59] - The agreement allows the US to retain a 10% baseline tariff on UK goods while reducing tariffs on automobiles and steel/aluminum imports from the UK [2][59] - The UK has agreed to expand agricultural imports from the US, including a quota for 1.3 million tons of beef and a commitment to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [2][59] Group 2 - The US is currently engaged in trade negotiations with approximately 17 economies, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, with a focus on achieving quick agreements with smaller economies to bolster political support for the Trump administration [4][61] - Key conflicts in negotiations with the EU center around digital services taxes and automotive import barriers, with the EU maintaining a significant trade surplus with the US [4][26][61] - The US-Japan negotiations face challenges primarily in the automotive and agricultural sectors, with the US seeking to increase military funding contributions from Japan while also pushing for reduced tariffs on US agricultural products [4][32][61] Group 3 - Future trade conflicts may evolve through a strategy of splitting issues and pursuing partial agreements, particularly with smaller economies that have lower trade imbalance levels with the US [5][39][62] - The likelihood of reaching comprehensive agreements with major economies in the short term is low, suggesting a phased approach to negotiations may be more realistic [5][62] - Historical precedents indicate that US trade conflicts often end in political backlash or through WTO rulings, highlighting the complexities of achieving lasting trade agreements [5][51][62]

来源：金十数据 尽管围绕贸易协议的乐观情绪日益增长，可能令投资者平静一些，但一位资深策略师认为，市场应为进 一步的痛苦做好准备。 前摩根士丹利首席全球策略师、Quantum Strategy负责人大卫·罗奇（David Roche）认为，未来五到十年 内，美元价值可能暴跌约15%-20%，并且美国经济可能在2025年底前遭遇更迫在眉睫的衰退。 罗奇是曾正确预测1997年和2008年金融危机的资深投资者。 罗奇的主要担忧是，特朗普的贸易冲突正在损害美国在全球金融市场的声誉，并导致投资者撤离美国资 产。 高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）估计，截至4月25日的两个月里，外国投资者卖出了价值约630亿美元的股 票。 罗奇暗示这一趋势可能持续，并补充说，考虑到外国投资者持有美国股市约18%的份额，630亿美 元"不算什么"。 美债也受到贸易冲突冲击，美债收益率在4月初市场波动高峰期螺旋式上升。这对美元价值不利，因为 随着对美国资产需求的减弱，美元会下跌。 罗奇基于实际有效汇率（REER，即根据两国贸易权重调整的货币价值）分析称，美元仍有下行空间。 国际清算银行数据显示，3月美国实际广义有效汇率指数约为112，较2 ...

SHMET 网讯：英国央行将于北京时间周四19:02公布决议，较往常推迟两分钟，以纪念欧洲胜利日80周年。该央行预计将降息25个基点，并可能暗示6 月将进一步降息。这或将使其自2009年以来首次连续降息，而美国贸易冲突正令经济增长前景蒙上阴影。 彭博调查的32位经济学家均预计，货币政策委员会将把基准利率从4.5%降至4.25%，其中20人认为至少有一位委员会支持降息50个基点。期货市场也几 乎完全定价了本次25个基点的降息，并认为下月再次降息的概率较高。 自去年8月以来，英国央行已三次降息，并于今年2月暂停行动。但由于此后美国总统特朗普宣布的高额对等关税可能拖累全球经济，交易员预计英国央 行年底前会将利率降至3.5%。 投票分歧 本次降息决议预计将获得全票通过，仅三位受访经济学家认为会有委员支持按兵不动。这显示央行内部鸽派倾向已逐渐形成，部分委员主张更激进宽松 以规避增长风险。 其中最鸽派的委员丁格拉（Swati Dhingra）和泰勒（Alan Taylor）持此立场。而曼恩（Catherine Mann）则在2月意外支持降息50个基点，3月又转向多 数派暂缓行动。 另一位关键人物是负责市场的副行长拉姆斯登 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 陈子帅】据中国外交部消息，应瑞士政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副 总理何立峰将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士，与瑞士领导人及有关方面举行会谈。访瑞期间，何立峰副总理 作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。中国外交部发言人7日介绍 说，这次会谈是应美方请求举行的。 路透社援引两名知情人士的话称，谈判预计将讨论全面降低关税。其中一名消息人士称，双方还将商讨 取消特定产品关税、此前被美国取消的中国商品小额豁免政策，以及中国对美国公司的出口管制。 在接受福克斯新闻采访时，贝森特坦言，美国对华的145%关税和中国对美的125%关税相当于"禁运"。 他还称："我们不希望'脱钩'，我们要的是公平贸易。" "中国同意和美国接触有利于更好传达我方立场。但这不等于谈判，也不意味着让步。"复旦大学美国研 究中心副主任、教授宋国友7日对《环球时报》记者表示，无论是接触、会谈还是未来可能的谈判，中 方都将维护自身利益，"这是中方考虑到国际经济发展以及中美两国互动而采取的善意举措"。 路透社提到，这将是今年3月中国国务院总理李强在北京会见美国联邦参议员戴安斯以来，中美高级别 官员再次见 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月7日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：中美将就贸易问题进行接触，提振国内风险偏好 萃 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 【宏观】 海外方面，因美国 3 月贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的 1405 亿美元，且美国 总统和财长贝森特的讲话几乎未提供达成任何贸易协议的明确时间表，美元短期 走弱，全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，商务部表示在充分考虑全球期待、中 方利益、美国业界和消费者呼吁的基础上，中方决定同意与美方进行接触，中美 高官将在瑞士会晤，中美贸易谈判接触信号短期有利提振国内风险偏好和人民币 汇 ...

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have surprised many, with prices rising sharply after a brief decline following the May Day holiday [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic data from the U.S., and central bank purchasing behavior [5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 to $3220 per ounce by May 4, marking an 8% decrease [2] - Following the holiday, gold prices rebounded sharply, with spot gold rising over $80 to exceed $3360 per ounce on May 6, representing a 2.75% increase in just one day [3] Factors Behind Price Changes - The announcement of a 100% tariff on imported films by Trump led to a sell-off in U.S. entertainment stocks, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5] - Mixed economic indicators from the U.S., including a decline in GDP and rising unemployment claims, have shifted expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and increasing gold demand [5] - Geopolitical instability, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, has further driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5] Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a reported 12% increase in gold buying in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - India's gold reserves now account for over 9% of its total reserves, indicating a trend of reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing demand for gold [6] Implications for Retail Investors - The volatility in gold prices poses risks for retail investors, as rapid price changes can lead to significant losses [7] - While some consumers have taken advantage of lower prices to purchase gold jewelry and bars, the resale value of such items often does not match the purchase price, making it a less favorable investment [7] - The fluctuations in gold prices serve as a reminder of the complexities of financial markets, suggesting that investors should seek expert analysis before making investment decisions [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of weakening external demand is emerging, and the bond market is expected to strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The negative impact of trade frictions is starting to show, with the official manufacturing PMI in April falling short of expectations. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is certain. Although high - frequency indicators related to domestic demand perform well, their impact on the bond market is limited. The marginal easing of trade conflicts mainly affects market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it presents a buying opportunity [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From April 21 - 27, treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. On Monday, with a relatively balanced capital market and a slight upward revision of broad - money expectations, treasury bond futures rose. On Tuesday, with a calm news environment and balanced capital, the market expected the April PMI to weaken, leading to a significant rise in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, although the April manufacturing PMI was below expectations, treasury bond futures slightly corrected as the market had already priced in the news. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but the bullish force is expected to prevail, and treasury bond futures may attempt to break upwards. Negative factors mainly affect market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it is a good opportunity for bulls to increase positions. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is clear. If some indicators exceed market expectations, the bond market may fall temporarily, presenting a buying opportunity [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 32 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1350.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 1346.97 billion yuan, a change of - 5406.91 billion yuan and + 2149.45 billion yuan from last week respectively. 29 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 930.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 926.97 billion yuan, a change of - 980.31 billion yuan and - 698.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 168 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 2493.40 billion yuan and a net financing of - 859.70 billion yuan, a change of - 7184.40 billion yuan and - 2631.10 billion yuan from last week respectively [23] - **Secondary Market**: Most treasury bond yields declined. By April 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.83% respectively, down 3.76, 3.99, 3.25, and 9.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread compressed by 4.17bp to 16.80bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.74bp to 12.19bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread compressed by 6.50bp to 19.96bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.57%, and 1.66% respectively, down 0.44, 3.75, and 3.56bp from the previous weekend [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41761, 59303, 65919, and 83215 lots respectively, with changes of + 1358, + 7676, - 377, and - 20221 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 146910, 205789, 236575, and 133653 lots respectively, with changes of + 3958, + 2418, + 13819, and + 4959 lots from the previous weekend [38][41] - **Basis and IRR**: A positive - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - carry strategy becomes more prominent [45] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: By April 30, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.264, - 0.300, - 0.145, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.010, - 0.010, + 0.020, and 0.000 yuan from the previous weekend. The futures roll - over rhythm is fast, and the open interest of the 06 contract significantly exceeds the seasonal level of previous contracts. The roll - over pressure is high, and the spread of TS2506 - 09 is expected to continue to decline [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank conducted 11503 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 5045 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6458 billion yuan. By April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, up 18.09, 16.28, 19.30, and 12.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose slightly. By May 2, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.0424 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 4 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 254 basis points. There are signs of easing in trade conflicts, and both the US dollar and the RMB exchange rates strengthened slightly. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data in April led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts, causing the US treasury bond yields to rise slightly [61][62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board. By April 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3478.21, 6106.89, and 1621.01 points respectively, down 61.07, 41.83, and 35.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also fell. By April 30, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.59, 4.39, and 7.59 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.19, 0.19, and 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach towards the bond market, focus on the strategy of buying on dips. Consider the positive - carry opportunities of short - term varieties. Wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of TS06 - 09 [2]