Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) and challenges the prevailing narrative that links the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to RMB appreciation and subsequent damage to export competitiveness [2][3]. Group 1: Current RMB Exchange Rate Narrative - The popular narrative suggests that the Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cuts will lead to a weaker USD, thus causing the RMB to appreciate and harming China's export competitiveness. This narrative is based on several assumptions that require validation [3]. - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the USD's weakness is not necessarily direct, as historical data shows a low correlation between the two [4]. - The assumption that narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US will lead to RMB appreciation is flawed, as the correlation between funding rate differentials and the USD/CNY exchange rate is weak [5]. Group 2: RMB Appreciation Analysis - The article divides the RMB appreciation observed this year into two phases: the first phase from mid-April to November, driven primarily by policy support, and the second phase from late November to the present, driven by market supply and demand [9][10]. - In the first phase, the RMB middle rate appreciated from 7.21 to 7.08, largely due to policy interventions, while in the second phase, market dynamics took over, leading to a different adjustment mechanism [14]. - Factors contributing to the recent market-driven appreciation include the release of previously held foreign exchange reserves and seasonal trends in net settlement of foreign exchange by enterprises [16]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The article anticipates that the RMB will maintain stable fluctuations against the USD through 2026, with limited potential for significant appreciation [17]. - Current valuation metrics indicate that the RMB is reasonably priced, with deviations from expected levels being minimal [18]. - The central bank's policy appears to be aimed at preventing excessive appreciation of the RMB, as indicated by recent trends in the counter-cyclical factor [22]. - The supply-demand dynamics suggest that while there may be short-term volatility, the underlying support for sustained appreciation is not strong enough at this time [24][27]. - External factors, particularly the USD index, are expected to limit the pressure for a prolonged decline in the USD [28]. - Overall, the RMB's future trajectory will depend on complex factors, with a preference for stable two-way fluctuations rather than significant appreciation [29].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the industrial sector in China, highlighting trends in industrial profits and revenue for November 2023. Core Insights 1. **Year-over-Year Performance**: - China's industrial profits decreased by 13.0% year-over-year (yoy) in November, compared to a decline of 8.9% yoy in October. Sequentially, profits showed a slight recovery with a growth of 0.3% seasonally adjusted (sa) non-annualized in November, following a significant drop of 8.6% in October [6][2][1]. 2. **Downstream vs. Upstream Profits**: - Downstream profits continued to decline by 5.6% yoy in November, consistent with October's performance. In contrast, upstream profits saw a sharper decline of 25.2% yoy, worsening from a 14.9% yoy drop in October. Equipment manufacturing was identified as a key growth driver, contributing 2.8 percentage points (pp) to the overall 0.1% yoy growth in industrial profits for the first 11 months of the year. Notable sectors within equipment manufacturing included railways and aircraft, which experienced a profit growth of 27.8% yoy, and electronics, which grew by 15.0% yoy [6][2][1]. 3. **Industrial Revenue Trends**: - Industrial revenue fell by 0.4% yoy in November, an improvement from a 4.0% yoy decline in October. Sequentially, revenue increased by 4.4% sa non-annualized in November, compared to a 5.6% decline in October. However, overall profit margins decreased in November on a 12-month average basis, with both upstream and downstream profit margins deteriorating [6][2][1]. 4. **PMI Forecasts**: - The report includes forecasts for December's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The NBS manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease slightly to 49.0 in December from 49.2 in November, influenced by declining high-frequency indicators such as steel production. Conversely, the RatingDog manufacturing PMI is projected to rise to 50.1 in December from 49.9 in November, reflecting improved port activity in coastal regions. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI is anticipated to increase to 50.0 in December from 49.5 in November, although the construction PMI is expected to remain subdued [6][7][1]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of comprehensive evaluation [5][1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a clear overview of the current state of China's industrial sector and its economic indicators.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.05bp to 1.8355% from 1.835% last Friday. The yield fluctuated during the week due to various factors such as LPR expectations, government bond issuance concerns, and policy news [1][11]. - Five factors affect the super - reserve ratio. In January 2026, foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by about 63 billion yuan; the central bank is expected to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through various means and there is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut; fiscal deposits are expected to increase by about 62 billion yuan; M0 is expected to increase by about 78 billion yuan; and required deposit reserves are expected to increase by about 50 billion yuan. The liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, which can be adjusted through open - market operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts [15][16][21]. - In the bond market, institutions may pay more attention to institutional behavior. It is expected that the allocation power of banks and insurance will strengthen at the beginning of next year, and interest rates may decline [21]. 2.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and it is expected to continue to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate once exceeded 7. The long - term RMB value is systematically undervalued, but in the medium - term, the role of macro - policies in the transition from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [22][23]. - US economic data shows that inflation pressure is easing, economic expansion momentum is weakening, the labor market is stable, and the Fed is in a "data - dependent" mode. It is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, but if economic data weakens, it may resume gradual interest rate cuts from January to April [23][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - **Weekly review**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated during the week. The reasons included LPR non - adjustment, concerns about government bond issuance, and policy news [12]. - **Weekly thinking**: Analyze the five factors affecting the super - reserve ratio and predict the liquidity situation in January 2026. The overall liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, and the central bank may use various means to maintain liquidity [15][16][21]. 3.1.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - **Gold and exchange rate**: Gold prices are expected to continue to rise. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is affected by fiscal deficit and fiscal monetization [22][23]. - **US economic data**: The December PMI initial values were lower than expected, the November CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the labor participation rate was stable. The Fed's policy is focused on "liquidity guarantee and prudent policy balance" [23][24][26]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 6.52 billion yuan [38]. - **Interest rates**: Various interest rates such as money market rates, bond yields, and futures prices are presented in figures and tables, showing their trends and changes [39][40][42] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity prices**: Steel prices declined, and LME non - ferrous metal futures prices increased. The prices of other commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also had corresponding changes [59][61]. - **Financial market data**: Data on various financial market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and exchange rates in the US and other countries are presented [71][73][76] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 6 local bonds were issued with an amount of 2.037 billion yuan, a repayment of 5.211 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 3.174 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by Shenzhen, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia [85][87]. - No local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 2.199521 trillion yuan of such bonds have been issued [90]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.6 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 362.073 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. The top three active trading provinces were Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [101]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plan of Beijing from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, is presented in a figure [106]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 211 credit bonds were issued with a total issuance of 254.432 billion yuan, a total repayment of 213.649 billion yuan, and a net financing of 40.783 billion yuan, which decreased by 16.672 billion yuan compared with last week [108]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 261 million yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 4.1044 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing had a net financing of - 4.4152 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 8.0004 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 719 million yuan, corporate bonds had 1.5045 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 292 million yuan [109][112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates and their changes of various bond types such as short - term financing, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds are presented in a table [119]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume data of credit bonds in different ratings and types are presented in a table, with a total trading volume of 626.442 billion yuan [120]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yield to maturity and its changes of various bonds such as government - backed development bonds, short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds are presented in tables [120][121][122] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [124][125][128] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [135][137][139] 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type are presented in a table, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [143][144] 3.4.8 Issuer Rating Changes The issuer rating or outlook improvement information of two companies, Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd., is presented in a table [146]

Labor Market Insights - The labor market appears to be stable with minimal layoffs reported, indicating a contained environment [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits are showing a downward trend, suggesting that unemployed individuals are finding jobs [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to around 4.4% in the upcoming December report, despite recent fluctuations influenced by government shutdowns [3] Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates a weaker trend in growth, inflation, and the labor market, with recent data reflecting lower sales, activity, and investment [5][6] - Consumer confidence has not rebounded, and sentiment remains low due to the impact of the government shutdown [8] - Inflation data is anticipated to rise, particularly with a rebound in rent inflation, leading to a higher overall inflation environment [9] Future Economic Outlook - There is an expectation that economic growth will begin to pick up, with a potential shift in narrative regarding the economy in Q1 [10]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 0.86%, while the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1589.20, rising 78.64 points from last week, a 5.2% increase. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week, rising 46.46 points to 1552.92, a 3.08% increase. The full - load of shipping companies drove the futures prices up. The manufacturing PMI data in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery of terminal transportation demand. The 52 - week average spot freight rate for large containers was 2450 US dollars, and some voyages were over - booked. The "peace plan" between the US and Ukraine was initially completed, improving the Red Sea re - navigation expectation. The euro - zone economy continued to recover. Overall, the improvement of the trade - war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are favorable for the futures price recovery, while the short - term impact of the geopolitical situation on freight rates has weakened. The freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, so investors should be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1806.600, - 15.7↓; EC second - main contract closing price: 1158, + 3.40↑ - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 648.60, - 56.40↓; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 474.90, - 76.90↓ - EC contract basis: - 217.40, + 65.20↑ - EC main contract open interest: 35004, - 1506↓ [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1589.20, 78.64↑; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 962.10, 37.74↑ - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1552.92, 46.46↑ - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1124.73, 6.66↑; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1473.90, 3.35↑ - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2023.00, - 44.00↓; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1323.00, - 41.00↓ - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, 0.00↑; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 28125.00, 1345.00↑ - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, 0.00↑ [1] Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year" Plan Outline Draft, emphasizing the planning of major projects - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US in Miami, and the 20 - point "peace plan" was initially completed - The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months until July 31, 2026, and introduced anti - circumvention measures [1] Key Data to Watch - US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20, to be released on December 24 at 21:30 [1]

Summary of Global Economics Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economy, highlighting resilience in various sectors, particularly manufacturing and services, as indicated by recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings [1][4]. Key Points Economic Resilience - The global economy continues to show impressive resilience, with manufacturing and services PMIs recently posting readings toward the upper part of their historical ranges [1][4]. - Global trade indicators are recovering from the impacts of tariffs, with solid export volumes reported through September [1][4]. Trade Dynamics - Despite signs of "payback" from US frontloading in trade data, global exports remain robust. The PMI for new export orders to firms outside the US rose above 50 for the first time since April [1][4]. - Anticipation of further payback from US front-loaded spending is expected to create manageable headwinds for global trade, which are not likely to disrupt global growth significantly [1][4]. PMI Insights - The global composite PMI indicates expansion, with specific readings showing: - Manufacturing PMI at 50.5, indicating stability [5][7]. - Services PMI at 53.3, suggesting growth in the services sector [7][9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there are potential headwinds from US spending patterns, the overall outlook for global growth remains positive, with manageable risks anticipated [1][4]. Additional Important Insights - The report includes various figures and charts that illustrate trends in global manufacturing, services, and trade, providing a comprehensive view of the economic landscape [5][11][12]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring global economic indicators to identify potential investment opportunities and risks [1][4]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the resilience of the global economy, trade dynamics, and future outlook, while also highlighting the importance of economic indicators in investment decision-making.

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

RT Binance Research (@BinanceResearch)Macro data shows a synchronized slowdown: inflation Consumer, PMI falling, and unemployment rising.Raising the question of whether markets will shift from “bad news is good news” to pricing in recession risk.Find out more ⬇️https://t.co/AsP05IInmM ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded mostly lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 250 points, down 0.52% to 48,164.83, NASDAQ down 0.37% to 22,971.25, and S&P 500 down 0.56% to 6,778.08 [1] - European shares were lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 slipping 0.64%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 0.69%, London's FTSE 100 down 0.92%, Germany's DAX 40 down 0.85%, and France's CAC 40 declining 0.40% [5] - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.56%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.54%, China's Shanghai Composite down 1.11%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.63% [6] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales were flat for October compared to September, down from a revised 0.1% gain in the previous month and below market estimates of 0.1% growth [7] - The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, compared to a loss of 105,000 in the previous month and above market estimates of a 50,000 increase [9] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.3% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since September 2021 [9] - Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1% month-over-month to $36.86 in November, compared to a 0.4% rise in the previous month [9] - U.S. business inventories increased 0.2% month-over-month in September, in line with market estimates [9] - The S&P Global flash composite PMI declined to 53 in December, the lowest reading in six months, down from 54.2 in November [2][9] Commodity Market - Oil traded down 2.9% to $55.17, while gold traded up 0.5% at $4,357.00, silver up 0.1% to $63.59, and copper down 1% to $5.3560 [4] Company News - SRx Health Solutions Inc shares surged 92% to $0.59 after announcing an agreement to acquire EMJ Crypto Technologies [8] - Rezolve AI PLC shares rose 34% to $3.12 following preliminary December revenue results [8] - Cementos Pacasmayo SAA shares increased 48% to $10.25 after Holcim signed an agreement to purchase 50.01% of the company's owner [8] - Zynex Inc shares dropped 53% to $0.31 after entering Chapter 11 court-supervised financial restructuring [8] - Lightwave Logic Inc shares fell 19% to $3.05 after announcing the pricing of an 11.67M share common stock offering [8] - Navan Inc shares decreased 17% to $12.21 after reporting third-quarter results [8]

从结构上看，经济走弱的迹象具有一定广泛性。Williamson表示，庞大的服务业新业务流入几乎陷入停 滞，而制造业则出现了一年来首次工厂订单下降。虽然部分制造企业仍在报告产出增加，但在销售放缓 的背景下，这样的生产节奏被认为难以持续，若需求未能在新一年回暖，企业或被迫削减产量。与此同 时，服务业企业反映，12月销售增长为2023年以来最疲弱的月份之一。 通胀压力同样引发关注。调查显示，企业成本上涨速度升至2022年11月以来最高水平，推动销售价格出 现近三年来最显著的涨幅之一。Williamson指出，关税再次被企业普遍视为价格上涨的重要原因，其最 初对制造业的影响正逐步向服务业蔓延，从而加剧整体的"可负担性"问题。 在金融市场层面，疲软的PMI数据公布后，美元指数承压回落，日内一度下跌约0.3%，报97.96。避险 情绪升温推动金价走强，现货黄金升至每盎司4330美元上方，刷新当日高点，显示投资者对美国经济前 景与通胀走势的关注正在升温。 智通财经APP获悉，美国最新公布的标普全球PMI初值显示，12月美国私营部门经济活动仍处于扩张区 间，但扩张动能明显放缓，多项指标降至数月低点，释放出经济增长趋弱的信号。 ...