1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, but investors need to be wary of risks brought by subsequent tariffs [5][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the employment market [5]. - In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected, alleviating concerns about consumer spending contraction [5]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations [5]. - Domestically, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, industrial production was strong while demand was weak. The production of refined copper in the second quarter is expected to increase [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Domestic TC maintains a low and weak quotation; US retail sales in June are better than expected; the spot has changed from a discount to a premium [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The tight inventory situation in non - US regions has eased; LME copper inventory continues to rise [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper ore imports**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Chile's copper exports to China have rebounded [18]. - **Mining end**: As of the week of July 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.31 dollars/dry ton, up 0.12 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market is expected to remain stable [22]. - **Electrolytic copper production**: In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The production in June is expected to remain high [24]. - **Waste copper imports**: In May, China's waste copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The supply from major countries has declined [27]. - **Refined - waste price difference**: As of July 17, the refined - waste price difference was around - 1,075 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [31]. - **Copper product production**: In June, the production of refined copper rods decreased, the production of copper strips decreased, the production of copper materials increased, the production of household refrigerators increased, and the export of automobiles maintained a high growth rate [35][39][43][46][50]. - **Real estate market**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, with declines in new construction and completion areas [54]. - **Copper inventory**: LME copper inventory has accumulated, with the latest level at 122,150 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly to 81,462 tons in the week of July 11. COMEX inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 241,814 tons. Domestic spot inventory increased to 144,400 tons on July 17 [58]. - **Copper spot premium**: On July 17, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 85 yuan/ton, while the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 58.71 dollars/ton [62]. 3.4后市研判 - The copper price will maintain a volatile trend, but risks from subsequent tariffs should be watched out for [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low inventory of aluminum keeps the price from significant decline, with support at the 20,000 integer level [5][57]. - The economic reality in the US remains strong, but whether the upside space can be opened requires preventive interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to inflation clues and tariff impacts [11]. - In China, the economy showed marginal weakness in June, and it is recommended to focus on the long - term policy framework transformation [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating a resilient job market. US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase [11]. - US CPI in June was in line with market expectations, while core CPI was lower than expected, starting to reflect the tariff's impact on the retail end [11]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry changed little, with a slight increase in output. The demand side was affected by the seasonal consumption off - season and high aluminum prices, and the operating rate of downstream industries declined [5]. - The visible inventory of aluminum remained at a low level. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [5][50]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated little, and the visible inventory remained at a low level. The spot changed from a discount to a premium [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector continued to decline, and macro - sentiment uncertainty still existed [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Ore - From January to May 2025, the domestic ore output was 25.2 million tons, with a theoretical expected increase of 3.3 million tons to 61.3 million tons for the year, only meeting about 28% of domestic alumina raw material demand [17]. 3.3.2 Ore Price - Since the beginning of this year, the import price of bauxite has been continuously lowered. In June 2025, China's aluminum ore imports were 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [21]. 3.3.3 Alumina - The alumina price has been adjusted upwards recently. With the increase in supply, the short - term spot price is stable. The output of alumina continues to rise, and the supply surplus is expected to be strong [24]. 3.3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, and the subsequent increase is limited [28]. 3.3.5 Aluminum Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. From January to June, the output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Domestic aluminum product exports declined year - on - year, but demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors increased significantly [31]. 3.3.6 Downstream Operating Rate - Affected by high aluminum prices and the deepening off - season, the average operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.6% this week [35]. 3.3.7 Real Estate - From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [39]. 3.3.8 Automobile - In June, China's automobile exports reached 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. New - energy vehicle exports were 205,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 140% [43]. 3.3.9 Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory also increased. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [47][50]. 3.3.10 Price Premium - On July 17, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumaomao changed from a discount to a premium of 110 yuan/ton, while the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened [54]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of Shanghai aluminum is difficult to decline significantly under the current low - inventory situation, with support at the 20,000 integer level [57].

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The second round of tariffs is expected to be implemented in July-August, but it is unlikely to reverse the current improvement in market risk appetite[6] - The market perceives the new tariffs as pressure tactics before agreement deadlines, with delayed economic transmission effects[11] - Despite tariff increases, the market remains resilient, driven by micro-level trading and positive earnings guidance from the upcoming earnings season[13] Group 2: Economic Data and Future Outlook - Economic data will be crucial in determining market direction, with a key observation window in Q3 mid to Q4[18] - The economic impact of tariffs may not fully materialize until Q4, with initial effects from the first round of tariffs expected to show in Q3 data[18] - A significant slowdown in economic growth is anticipated due to tariffs, but inflation risks are expected to remain contained[21] Group 3: Market Performance and Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.31% and 0.08% respectively during the week of July 5-12, 2025[22] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell from 98.8 to 98.6, indicating concerns over high inventory levels affecting business confidence[27] - The technology sector continues to lead market performance, reflecting a recovery in earnings expectations post-tariff easing[13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The US economy shows resilience as the retail sales in June 2025 had a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, the highest since March this year, and the weekly initial jobless claims were lower than the previous value and expectations. This suppresses the performance of gold prices, but gold still shows resistance. Due to strong uncertainties before the US tariff policy deadline and repeated risk sentiment, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Information - The vice - chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce stated that Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of US goods from tariffs [1] - The EU plans to add service tariffs and export controls on the US as a retaliatory measure after the breakdown of trade negotiations [1] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that the EU's value - added tax is also a form of subsidy, and the US hopes to see VAT reduction and tariff cuts [1] - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister said he is confident of reaching an agreement before the US tariff takes effect [1] Fed Information - Kugler believes it is appropriate to keep interest rate policy stable "for some time" [2] - Daly thinks whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical [2] - Bostic said it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term [2] - Waller believes the Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting [2]

过去一周，美国股市的表现再次刷新了市场的预期。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数双双创下历史新高， 纳指更是在八个交易日中六次收盘破纪录。这一切都发生在特朗普政府宣布新一轮广泛关税、并被市场 认为或将冲击全球贸易秩序之后。那么，问题来了：在如此大的政策不确定性背景下，美股为何不跌反 涨，甚至频创新高？ 一个关键解释是，美国消费者的韧性仍在，且短期内没有受到关税成本的直接冲击。本周公布的一系列 数据与企业财报印证了这一点——百事可乐等消费巨头依然交出了亮眼的预期，消费动能未减。特别是 在饮料、航空等本被认为更容易受宏观环境压制的行业中，企业竟普遍展现出信心，这让市场对经济的 内生动能产生了新判断。 另一个支撑点是科技与工业的双重强势。这两个板块对利率敏感，同时也受益于结构性增长预期。即便 美联储尚未明确降息时间表，但通胀数据接近目标，劳动力市场走软的迹象已经让部分投资者押注美联 储可能提前转向。在此背景下，芯片制造商等高成长性企业的估值获得修复空间。资金重新涌入半导体 与软件等板块，助推了指数上涨。 Vatee外汇认为这些只是表层现象。更深层的问题在于，市场是否低估了关税政策的中长期影响？目前 看来，投资者普遍将关税 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.18」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上行，主力合约EC2508收涨16.44%，远月合约收涨7-16%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为2421.94，较上周回升163.9点，环比上行7.3%，持续回升的现货指标说明头部船司此前的宣涨行为 大概率能成功落地，市场对旺季运价担忧减弱，叠加主力合约换月，基差修复逻辑带动期价上涨。6月美国标普全球 综合PMI指数从5月的53小幅回落至52.8。价格压力明显加剧，主要驱动因素包括关税政策的影响，以及融资成本、薪 资压力和燃料价格的上涨。美国6月零售销售数据呈现超预期反弹，环比增速录得0.6%，显著高于市场预期的0.1%， 且较前值-0.9%明显改善。尽管面临贸易政策不确定性，美国消费端仍展现出较强的韧性，部分或于特朗普暂缓关税 条例有关，但考虑到近期关税政策有所加码，后续通胀仍存在上行风险，或对未来数月的零售数据构成一定影响。此 外，欧元区面临美欧关税博弈升级的复 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.18」 硅铁市场周报 预期较好情绪外溢，价格或阶段迎调整 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 持仓量下降5.2万手；月差环比下降12.00 图1、硅铁期货合约持仓量 来源：文华财经 瑞达期货研究院 图2、硅铁跨期价差走势图 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年运行分析会议强调，科学把握生产节奏，提升煤炭供给质量，加强行业自律，整治内 卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡；中钢协副会长王颖生表示，当前我国钢铁总产量已达峰值，未来国内粗钢消费量预计保持 在8-9亿吨上下，行业减量发展趋势明显，但产业集中度提升。 2. 海外方面，美国总统特朗普发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收 30%的关税；特朗普表示如果俄罗斯在50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议，将对俄罗斯征收100%二级关税，亦会对购 ...

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price is 9273 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a trading volume of 854,199 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price is quoted at 9169 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 104 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a rare internal policy dispute, with differing views on interest rate adjustments amid rising consumer prices due to tariffs [1] Group 2 - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing May's -0.9% and market expectations of 0.1%, indicating economic resilience [2] - Weekly initial jobless claims were lower than previous values and expectations, further supporting the notion of economic strength [2] - Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to create volatility in risk sentiment, leading to fluctuations in precious metal prices [2]

周三能够实现剧烈波动，主要受到CPI数据和特朗普政策的影响。据美国劳工部劳动统计局数据，美国6月未季调核心CPI年率为2.9%，高于前值2.8%，低于 预期值3%；美国6月未季调CPI年率为2.7%，高于前值2.4%。美国通胀率数据表现坚挺，意味着美国的商品需求依旧旺盛，美联储没必要急于降息。 黄金： 本周五个交易日，黄金三阴K两阳K，最高触及3377美元，最低触及3309美元，差值68美元。68美元的周度波动幅度极低，因为在高波动时期，一个交易日 的波动幅度可能都会突破100美元。 本周关于黄金的消息非常少，只有一条印度进口数据。知情人士称，印度6月黄金进口量降40%至21吨创两年新低，白银进口量从109吨升至197吨。能够驱 动黄金实现高波动率的因素，主要是各国中央银行的储备性购金。印度黄金进口量大降，意味着印度央行的购金动作减缓，利空金价。 美元： 美元的震荡性没有黄金那么强烈。本周一和周二，美元指数连续收阳线，且周二的阳线幅度远大于周一，似乎具有较强动能。然而，周三行情剧烈波动，最 低点击穿了本周的开盘价，最高点超过本周一和周二的最高点。周四和周五两个交易日的K线，最低点处于周三K线内部，最高点仅小幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. The good performance of net export data mainly stems from the Shanghai - London ratio limiting imports rather than outstanding export data [3][43]. - In 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume. Assuming the extreme scenario of re - export trade, the US's indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8%. Thus, the US's maximum dependence on Chinese aluminum products could reach 11.5% [4][19][43]. - If the re - export trade of Chinese aluminum products to the US is completely restricted, based on 2025 data, direct exports to the US would decline by 1.8%, and the consumption of aluminum elements in China would only decline by 0.2% [5][24][43]. - Regarding the 24% tariff window on China, starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Assuming the fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [5][40][45]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. Even with the pre - consumption caused by the rush to export, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries [6][27][45]. - The pre - consumption caused by the rush to export may lead to a decline in later consumption, but the steepness of the decline may be less than expected. In the context of limited supply, as long as the year - on - year consumption of aluminum increases, the overall positive trend remains unchanged [6][45] Summary by Directory Export Data Analysis - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. This was mainly due to the decrease in net imports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy affected by the Shanghai - London ratio. From January to May, the cumulative net exports of aluminum products were 2.12 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The cancellation of export tax rebates for Chinese aluminum products since November 2024 had a substantial impact on exports. However, the monthly decline in net exports of aluminum products in the first half of the year narrowed, which was related to the rush to export during the tariff window. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum imports, the actual export was more difficult, and the rush to export was mainly in the form of end - products [12]. US's Direct and Indirect Dependence on Chinese Aluminum Products - Using sample data from 2021 - 2024, which accounted for about 24% of the total export volume, it was estimated that in 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume, and indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8% under the extreme re - export scenario, with a maximum dependence of 11.5%. If the US imposes tariffs globally, the impact on China's aluminum export consumption is limited under the condition that US consumption does not decline. The biggest impact comes from the re - inflation problem caused by tariffs. Chinese aluminum products can be compensated through re - export trade. From January to May 2025, China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 1.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% (130,000 tons), mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The direct export to the US in 2024 was 61,000 tons, while from January to May 2025, it was only 11,000 tons, and the proportion of direct exports to the US dropped to 1.9%. The direct impact of tariffs on exports to the US was only 1.8%. Since the US import data for 2025 has not been released, the impact of re - export has not been evaluated [15][19]. - Based on the aluminum element calculation, in 2024, China's aluminum element supply was 55.75 million tons, and exports accounted for about 12% of China's aluminum consumption. If the US completely stops relying on Chinese aluminum products, the consumption of aluminum elements in China will decline by 1.4%. In reality, on the basis of stable US consumption, re - export trade is difficult to restrict, and US trade actions alone are unlikely to significantly impact China's aluminum consumption [20][24]. Attention to Third - World Consumption Growth after Tariff - Affected Rush to Export - According to customs data, from January to June, China's cumulative exports of automobiles (including chassis) reached 3.473 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 18.6%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative exports of automobiles from January to June were 3.078 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3%. Both data sources show a monthly growth trend in exports, and the monthly exports of components also show a recovery trend [27]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. The export price of Yiwu small commodities remains high, and although the US price in the container shipping price index has dropped significantly, the comprehensive price index is still good. Therefore, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries. From January to May, China's cumulative exports of wire and cable were 1.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rise, showing a continuous growth trend in recent years. The rapid development of developing countries will drive the export and consumption of China's infrastructure products [27]. Rush - to - Export Time Point under US Tariff Window - Since January 20, 2025, when Trump officially took office as the US President, the tariff war began. With the implementation of tariff executive orders such as those related to fentanyl, the US imposed a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods. After the Geneva negotiations on May 12th, 91% of the reciprocal tariffs were cancelled, and the 24% tariff on China was suspended for 90 days, reducing the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US to 30%. However, for aluminum products, due to the US's consecutive increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the Geneva talks, Chinese aluminum products still face a high tariff of 104% when exported to the US [40]. - Starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Considering the fastest shipping time from China's coastal areas to the US West Coast (about 12 days) and the estimated fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [40]. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the export situation of Chinese aluminum products, the US's dependence on Chinese aluminum products, the impact of tariff policies, the rush - to - export time point, and the focus on consumption in other regions [43][45].