1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil is expected to maintain low - level volatility or weak rebounds due to concerns about slowing exports. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan, and there is pressure to weaken further. Port inventories are expected to rise as demand weakens with falling temperatures [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. This supports CBOT soybean oil. In China, spot prices rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory soybean oil inventories changed little, with a balance between production and demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are weak. The market is actively selling pigs, and slaughterhouses have no difficulty in procurement, suppressing prices. The market is in a weak range - bound pattern. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet was in line with market expectations. US soybeans lack substantial bullish factors and face difficulties in continuing to rise. China's 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and prices will maintain wide - range fluctuations [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - In the corn market, prices in the Northeast are strong due to increased stocking, and those in North China are stable as the number of delivery vehicles to deep - processing plants increases. There is a selling pressure expectation due to a bumper harvest. The demand side shows good deep - processing profits and limited feed - end restocking. Corn prices may have a limited rebound [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - India allows 25/26 sugar exports of 1.5 million tons, but short - term exports may be difficult. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, with a loose supply. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The November USDA cotton supply - demand balance sheet is bearish. Globally, production increased significantly while demand increased slightly, and ending stocks rose. In China, new cotton listings bring short - term pressure, and downstream demand is weak overall, but some products support cotton prices. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The number of laying hens in production remains high, and the supply is loose. The market is in a seasonal off - peak period, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short positions in the near - month contracts can be gradually closed [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is adjusted to 32.276 billion pounds. Ending stocks are down 1.4% year - on - year. In China, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory inventories changed little [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by export concerns, it will maintain low - level volatility. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan. Port inventories are expected to rise [1]. - **Price and Spread Changes**: The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and there were also changes in cross - period spreads and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis decreased by 120.00%, and the prices of pig 2605 and pig 2601 decreased by 0.45% and 0.68% respectively [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline of 400 yuan/ton in Guangdong [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased slightly by 0.05%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased by 28.70% and 17.15% respectively [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also had significant changes [8]. - **Market Situation**: The USDA's report was in line with expectations. US soybeans lack bullish factors, and China's tariff affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 92.00%. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.64%, and the basis increased by 320.00% [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.22% and 0.11% respectively, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.67% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 1.06%, and that in Kunming increased by 0.54%. Imported sugar prices from Brazil increased [14]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, but the national sales rate decreased. Industrial inventories in some regions increased, and imports increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 decreased slightly, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang cotton and the CC Index decreased slightly, while the difference between the CC Index and the FC Index increased [15]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial and industrial inventories increased, imports increased, but textile exports decreased [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg 12 and egg 01 contracts decreased, and the spot price in the production area decreased by 0.82% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - to - feed ratio increased by 2.56%, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% [17]. - **Market Situation**: The number of laying hens in production is high, supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the fundamentals are bullish, with supply-side production scheduled to decrease, demand recovery at a low level, and cost support increasing. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8990 - 9170 [5][8]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are neutral, with continuous decreases in supply-side production scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, while cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 51880 - 53430 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in demand [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 17, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 270 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease from the previous week. The predicted production in November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,200 tons, a 5.13% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduled for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 17, the basis of the 01 contract was -355 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase from the previous week, at a historically low level [10]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [21][22]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the price, trading volume, and basis of the PS main contract [24][25]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report displays the historical trends of the inventory in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise weekly inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report presents the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and SMM sample enterprise operating rate [28][29][30][31][33]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the historical trends of the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [37][38]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [40][41]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost trends, weekly production, and price [43][44]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC monthly import and export volumes and inventory [49][50]. 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation - The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53]. 3.14 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [55][56]. 3.15 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [57][58][59][60]. 3.16 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, operating rate, and monthly demand [62][63].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8590 | 8560 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 Y2601 | | 8256 | 8316 | | -60 | -0.72% | | 墓差 Y2601 | | 334 | 244 | | 90 | 36.89% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 | | 01+270 | 01+270 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 24993 | 24993 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 8590 | 8570 | | 20 | 0.23% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.12% to close at 86,900 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, while the force majeure incident at an Indonesian copper mine and the sharp rise in precious metals supported copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week. The copper market is expected to be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.12% to close at 86,900 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, while the force majeure incident at an Indonesian copper mine and the sharp rise in precious metals supported copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [10]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The copper market is expected to be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week. The bonded - area inventory remained at a low level [4][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing fees**: Processing fees are at a low level [22]. - **CFTC positions**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC flowed out [24]. - **Futures - spot price difference**: No detailed information provided [27]. - **Import profit**: No detailed information provided [30]. - **Warehouse receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a decline in fiscal support year-on-year, with M1 growth peaking and then receding [1][3] - The report highlights a decrease in credit volume, with October RMB loan growth at 6.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.12 percentage points month-on-month, and a new loan addition of 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply-demand balance" in the credit market, noting that weak demand in the household sector, particularly for short-term loans, is a significant factor [2] Group 2 - M1 and M2 growth rates fell by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points respectively in October, with M1 at 6.2% and M2 at 8.2% [3] - The report suggests that the decline in M1 growth is attributed to a booming capital market, leading to a shift of deposits from residents and enterprises to non-bank deposits [3] - The investment recommendation remains focused on the banking sector, highlighting that the long-term investment value of banks continues to be strong, with a suggestion to focus on state-owned banks and quality regional banks [4][9] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the banking sector's performance, indicating that the Shenyin & Wanguo Bank Index rose by 1.70% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.78 percentage points [8] - It notes that the overall market performance for the week saw major indices decline, with the CSI 300 down by 1.08% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% [8] - The report also includes a forecast for key companies, with EPS and PE ratios provided for several banks, indicating a positive outlook for banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6780 yuan/ton, closed at 6818 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.5%), with a trading volume of 278,000 lots and a decrease in open interest of 5317 lots to 581,602 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6855 yuan/ton, closed at 6893 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.41%), with an increase in open interest of 16,282 lots to 112,385 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6905 yuan/ton, closed at 6938 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.33%), with an increase in open interest of 27 lots to 2289 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6445 yuan/ton, closed at 6480 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.39%), with a decrease in open interest of 8169 lots to 628,423 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6565 yuan/ton, closed at 6577 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.14%), with an increase in open interest of 3798 lots to 147,232 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6600 yuan/ton, closed at 6612 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%), with an increase in open interest of 632 lots to 8233 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Lian su L2601 opened lower, fluctuated slightly higher during the session, and closed higher at 6818 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.5%). PP2601 closed at 6480 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.39%). The futures market opened higher, but the market trading atmosphere was not significantly boosted. Traders focused on selling, and downstream buyers made small and cautious purchases at low prices [6] - There are no new production plans in November. The products from previous production have entered the market, significantly increasing the supply of spot resources and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has peaked seasonally and declined. The demand for pipes has increased first and then decreased. The operating rate of the PP woven bag industry has been boosted by packaging demand, while BOPP enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, and the subsequent orders are expected to weaken, mostly short - term small orders. The support for raw materials has weakened [6] - The expectation of oversupply in the crude oil market has resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices. The cost side has led the decline and weakened the support for the plastic and chemical sectors. The downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue [6] Group 4: Industry News - On November 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 665,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.62%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 670,000 tons [7] - The PE market prices have partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton, in East China 6900 - 7400 yuan/ton, and in South China 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily in the range of 5760 - 5800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in a state of supply - demand game, and the directional trend is still unclear. Downstream factories are cautious about purchasing, and production enterprises are mainly stabilizing prices for sales, with a small number of offers rising slightly [7] - The PP market has remained generally stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream prices of North China drawn yarn are in the range of 6200 - 6450 yuan/ton, in East China 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton, and in South China 6400 - 6540 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][13][16]