Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In 2026, the supply surplus pattern of pure benzene will continue. With many new installations and reduced maintenance losses in the first half of the year, and limited reduction in imports, the supply of domestic and imported pure benzene will be abundant in the first half of the year. The demand from non-styrene downstream sectors is weak, and the demand from the styrene chain is expected to decline. Therefore, the absolute price and valuation of pure benzene in the first half of the year are expected to remain under pressure. Special attention should be paid to changes in pure benzene imports [1]. - In 2026, the annual supply and demand of styrene are expected to be slightly in surplus. Although new installations suggest a shortage of supply, the pre - consumption of terminal domestic and foreign demand in 2025 has led to inventory accumulation in downstream sectors. The actual demand increase from new installations in downstream 3S devices may be lower than expected. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand situation of styrene is better than that of pure benzene. In the first quarter, it faces de - stocking pressure like pure benzene, and in the second quarter, during the maintenance season, the price and valuation of styrene are expected to recover. Attention should be paid to the cost - end price trend [2]. - The price range is estimated as BZ (5200, 6200); EB (6500, 7500). The strategy is to short BZ unilaterally and to expand the spreads of EB - BZ and PX - BZ periodically [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2025, the styrene market was volatile, with fundamentals and macro - factors alternately leading the market. In the first quarter, the market first rose and then fell, driven by raw material pure benzene. In the second quarter, the price fluctuated, affected by macro - factors. In the third quarter, the market was influenced by policies and entered a range - bound state in the traditional off - season. In the fourth quarter, the market first fell and then rebounded due to changes in overseas demand [3][4][5]. Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation - For pure benzene, the valuation was first compressed and then rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2025. In 2026, the supply is expected to be abundant in the first half of the year, and the demand is weak, so the valuation is expected to remain low. For styrene, the supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026 is better than that of pure benzene. In the second quarter, during the maintenance season, the price and valuation are expected to recover [8][9]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the domestic pure benzene production capacity increased by 9.17% to 2809 million tons, and about 260 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 9.26% [13]. - **Imports**: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly, mainly due to tariff policies and weak global demand. In 2026, imports are expected to decrease slightly, but the reduction is limited [18]. - **Demand**: In 2025, except for styrene, the consumption growth of other downstream sectors of pure benzene slowed down. The demand for caprolactam, aniline, etc., was affected by factors such as over - inventory and trade policies. In 2026, new installations in downstream sectors may not fully translate into demand for pure benzene [24][25]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, the pure benzene inventory first decreased and then increased. The port inventory reached 27.3 million tons, increasing the risk of over - stocking [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook**: In 2026, about 260 million tons of new pure benzene production capacity is planned to be put into operation. The reduction in imports due to Asian cracking capacity clearance is limited. The demand increase from new downstream installations is uncertain. The supply is expected to be abundant in the first half of the year, and the de - stocking pressure is high [42]. 3.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Production and Installation**: In 2025, the styrene production capacity increased by 9.76% to 2441.2 million tons. In 2026, only one 70 - million - ton styrene installation is planned to be put into operation, with a capacity growth rate of 4.21% [54][77]. - **Demand**: The 3S sectors showed demand resilience in 2025, but the terminal white - goods demand was affected by factors such as tariff policies and pre - consumption. In 2026, the actual demand increase from downstream new installations is uncertain due to inventory accumulation [59][70]. - **Imports and Exports**: In 2025, China changed from a styrene importer to an exporter. In the future, exports may become a new demand growth point [75]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook**: In 2026, new installations suggest a shortage of styrene supply, but considering inventory and actual installation operation, about 40 million tons of styrene surplus is expected. In the first half of the year, styrene may be relatively short in terms of new installations [77][78]. Chapter 4: Core Concerns - **Pure Benzene Imports**: The reduction in pure benzene imports due to Asian cracking capacity clearance in 2026 is small. The key factors affecting imports are the US diversion of South Korean pure benzene and changes in tariffs [83]. - **Styrene Exports**: Overseas refinery capacity clearance creates opportunities for Chinese styrene exports, which may become a new demand growth point [85]. - **Regional Styrene Supply - Demand**: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene installation, Shandong became a price depression. Attention should be paid to the operation of major plants in Shandong and regional price spreads [86]. - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: Pure benzene shows a pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets. The domestic styrene market is changing from strong reality to weak expectation, and there are export transactions [86]. - **Long - Term Trading Logic**: In the second quarter of 2026, the maintenance losses of pure benzene are expected to decrease, increasing the de - stocking pressure after the Spring Festival. Styrene is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally [87].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月25日 【原油】 继美国接连扣押油轮后,目前委内瑞拉海域有十余艘满载油轮正等待船东的新指示。俄罗斯黑海塔 口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水 平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量 仍维持在年内高位。她缘冲突多发引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,地缘 扰动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 (责金属) 【铜】 隔夜铜价震幅扩大，沪铜加权减仓，海外资金圣诞休市。国内现货背离加大，昨日上海铜贴水扩至 310元，短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 导，且价差利于出口。一季度合约多配需求持续性强，前期多单持有依托位上调到9.4万，同时建议 设置主动止盈位。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝回落。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限，社库窄幅波动，表观需求并无亮眼表现。近期宽松交易 延续，贵金属和有色多品种创新高，沪铝跟涨为主，圣诞节假期来临资金有离场迹象，沪铝在前高 位置仍具备阻力、多头背靠40日线持有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but there are still expectations of seasonal decline in demand. The high inventory of plates continues to suppress price performance [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with prices fluctuating narrowly. The supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient, but due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. The demand for iron ore is marginally weakening, and there will be downward pressure on prices if port supply liquidity recovers [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is in a weak balance, and prices are maintaining an oscillating trend. After the third round of price cuts for coke, the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the price is still under pressure. The supply of coking coal is tightening, but demand is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak [5][6]. - The price of thermal coal in the production area has stopped falling and stabilized, while the port price is continuously declining. Near the end of the month, the supply is shrinking, demand is stable, and the price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is still loose [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures oscillated, and according to Steel Valley data, steel inventory decreased yesterday, with hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing faster and demand rising. Building material inventory decline converged, and demand slightly decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, with off - season consumption maintaining resilience, a slight increase in production, and continuous decline in inventory. With cooling, there are expectations of seasonal decline in demand. Plate production declined, consumption and exports slightly decreased but remained resilient. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar weakened [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.288 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 835,000 tons (10 transactions), a month - on - month decrease of 14.80% [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating, the price remains relatively high, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. Some steel mills are reducing production to relieve restocking pressure, and short - term restocking willingness is insufficient. If port supply liquidity recovers, the price will face downward pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated. Some steel mills controlled coke purchases, providing weak support for coke. Some coking coal varieties with inventory pressure saw prices drop by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and overall transactions were average. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained high, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was weakly stable at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: After the third - round price cut for coke, production increased slightly, and pig iron production remained low. The short - term supply - demand of coke was in a weak balance, and the price was still under pressure. The supply of coking coal tightened as some coal mines completed their annual tasks and stopped or reduced production, but downstream demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals were weak [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal prices oscillated. Some coal mines stopped or reduced production after completing annual tasks, and the supply tightened. The market maintained rigid procurement, and the sales of some cost - effective coal mines improved slightly, with a few coal types slightly increasing in price. At the port, the market was still weak. Some rigid demand and short - covering inquiries near the end of the month increased slightly, and the pessimistic sentiment eased slightly. The actual procurement by downstream power plants and end - users was still weak, and short - term prices were weak. The imported coal market was stable, with the demand for medium - and high - calorie coal average and prices weakly stable. The demand for low - calorie coal increased, and quotes rose slightly [8]. - Supply - demand and logic: Near the end of the month, the supply contracted, demand was stable, and the price oscillated. In the long - term, the supply was still in a loose pattern [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". For specific varieties, the outlook for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is "oscillation", while the outlook for coking coal is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [5][7][8][10][12][13][15][17] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry have limited highlights. However, the policy tone remains positive, and there are still expectations for winter storage and restocking. The futures market is expected to have room for a rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited. The overall market presents an oscillatory pattern [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Steel is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. Although there is a slight improvement in demand and inventory is decreasing, the inventory level is still high year - on - year, and the upside space for the futures market is limited. Iron ore has a strong support at the bottom of the futures market due to the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Coal and coke are in a state of low - level valuation repair. Coke's supply - demand structure may tighten, and coking coal's fundamentals will continue to improve marginally [1][2] 2. Sub - sectors Analysis Iron Element - Iron ore: The demand support from molten iron is weakening, the port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills have not started restocking. The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. Scrap steel: Supply is decreasing while demand is stable. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. With the expected steel mill复产 in January and the start of winter storage and restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the import pressure will ease in January. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the futures valuation still has room for repair [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of the manganese silicon market remains loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upside space for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation in the medium term. Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure has eased, but the market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The upside space for the futures price should not be overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern will further intensify in the long term, with the price center continuing to decline [3] 3. Index Information - On December 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.22% on that day, 0.35% in the past 5 days, 0.04% in the past month, and decreased by 6.04% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 钢材：市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货维持震荡运行，现货方面，钢材现货成交偏弱，环比回落，投机情绪不足，钢材价格 基本持平。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需基本面持续改善，淡季消费维持韧性，产量小幅回升，库存延续回落，伴随各地持续 降温，建材需求仍有季节性回落预期。板材产量环比回落，消费及出口小幅下滑，但是仍存韧性，去库斜率不及 往年同期，高库存持续压制板材价格表现，卷螺差持续走弱。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交118.7万吨，环比上涨17.64%；远期现货：远期现货累 计成交98.0万吨（6笔），环比下跌12.50%(其中矿山成交量为57万吨)。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供需矛盾仍在持续积累，高估值下非主流发运持续高位，总库存连续攀 ...

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月24日，摩根大通指出，根据其最新的通路调查，随着供应逐步追上需求，苹果iPhone 17系列的交 货前置时间已明显缩短，显示本轮产品周期的供需状况正趋于稳定。该行分析师Samik Chatterjee表示， iPhone 17全系列的交货前置时间较前一阶段缩短约三天，目前平均约为三天，已回落至去年iPhone 16 同一时点的水平。 入门款iPhone作为本轮产品周期的主要出货动能来源，其交货前置时间已降至个位数天数区间，且改善 幅度最为明显，较先前缩短六天；iPhone 17 Air与Pro各缩短一天，Pro Max则缩短两天。该行指出，需 求与供给趋于平衡，意味着在苹果2026财年第二季之前，供应面受限的风险相对有限。iPhone 17系列 强劲的实际销售表现，将在产品周期后段持续支撑出货量与营收增长。 责任编辑：栎树 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely during the day and operated weakly overall. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely and operated weakly. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. Polyester - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is experiencing a resurgence in optimism, with expectations for lithium carbonate prices to potentially reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton in 2024 due to increasing demand from renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of December 22, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China reached 99,000 yuan per ton, marking a new high since June 2024 [2]. - Futures prices are even higher, with the LC2601 contract priced at 112,500 yuan per ton and long-term contracts approaching 120,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The lithium demand is projected to grow to around 2 million tons by 2026, achieving a near supply-demand balance [2][22]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium market is transitioning from an imbalance to a tight balance due to reduced capital expenditures in the industry and a significant drop in supply growth from 2026 to 2028 [2][20]. - The average quarterly price of battery-grade lithium carbonate for 2023 was 75,800 yuan, 65,200 yuan, 73,000 yuan, and 84,400 yuan, with the lowest point occurring in Q2 when prices fell below 60,000 yuan [7]. - Supply constraints have been exacerbated by production declines from lithium mica enterprises, with output dropping from 16,100 tons in July to 7,000 tons by November [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that lithium prices will rebound significantly in 2025 after a period of decline [5][11]. - Major companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are confident in the demand growth, predicting a 30% increase in demand by 2026, which could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [20][22]. - The overall supply growth is expected to slow down, with new capacity additions becoming increasingly limited, reinforcing the likelihood of a tighter market [20][22].

【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯期价触及5500元/吨后回落,华东现货价格小幅调整,山东地炼出货良好。周度开工小幅下降，港口库 存继续回升。后市有统苯装置检修及下游提负预期,供需压力或有所缓解,但甲苯歧化效益好转,供应有增长 预期，供需面驱动有限。明年上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 两烯期货主力合约日内宽幅震荡，整体偏弱运行。基本面上，部分一体化企业丙烯外放情况仍存，加之局部前 朗复工企业丙烯商品量计划外放,市场整体供应相对充裕。生产企业库存压力可控,稳市意愿或相对明显。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动,熊市格局延续。聚乙烯方面,供应端高负荷运行,库存去化缓慢。 下游开工不足，采购以刚需为主,新增订单寥寥,需求端持续乏力。市场多持观望态度,成交谨慎,供需矛盾 短期难有改善。聚丙烯方面,近期聚丙烯栓修装置部分重启,现货货源供应仍较为充裕,且随着天气降温,下 游部分行业进入淡季,预期需求转弱,市场情绪仍偏谨慎。 | 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月23日 | | ...