宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 11 月 16 日 10 月金融数据点评 四季度仍需稳增长 10 月新增社融、新增信贷、M1 同比增速和社融同比增速均低于万得一致预 期，仅 M2 同比增速高于万得一致预期，一方面表明适度宽松的货币政策仍 在发力，另一方面表明年内货币政策或仍有加码宽松的客观需求。 相关研究报告 《 中 银 量 化 多 策 略 行 业 轮 动 周 报 – 20251113》20251114 《策略点评》20251113 《2025 年三季度货币政策执行报告学习》 20251112 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 图表 1.新增社融构成和变化（单位：亿元） | | | 社融 | 人民币贷款 | 外币贷款 | 委托贷款 | 信托贷款 | 汇票 | 企业债 | 股票融资 | 政府债券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新增 | | 8,150 | (201) | (200) | 1,653 | 156 | (2,894) | 2,469 | 696 ...

Domestic Economic Overview - In October, China's economic data showed contractions in both supply and demand, but structural highlights remain in consumption upgrades and new productivity[1] - The retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November dropped by 18.8% year-on-year, while metro passenger volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year[2] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a need for increased investment to support economic growth[7] Production and Pricing Trends - As of November 16, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in production[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.19% week-on-week drop in pork prices, while vegetable prices stabilized with a 0.14% increase[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) reflected mixed performance in black commodities, with coking coal prices down by 3.86% and iron ore prices up by 0.53%[7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been completed, with general government bonds issued amounting to 3093.2 billion yuan, achieving 89.5% of the issuance target[7] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a policy intent to maintain liquidity in the banking system[7] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 10-year yield at 1.8140% and the 30-year yield at 2.1481%[7] International Economic Context - The U.S. government ended a 43-day shutdown, with potential losses estimated at 1.5 trillion USD, impacting economic data releases[8] - New tariffs have been signed by Trump, adjusting the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" and affecting trade relations with multiple countries[8] - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding inflation data due to the risk of missing October's CPI release, complicating monetary policy decisions[8]

Core Insights - The inflation differences between China and Japan reflect the distinct stages of economic development and national conditions, making it difficult to determine absolute superiority [1] - Japan's long-term price stability is influenced by factors such as aging population and sluggish economic growth, while China's moderate inflation indicates economic vitality and potential [1] Inflation Rates - Over the past decade, China's average inflation rate was approximately 2.3%, while Japan's was only 0.8%, leading to a 25% increase in Chinese prices compared to an 8% increase in Japan [2] - Over a 30-year period, Japan's price levels have remained nearly unchanged since the early 1990s, with instances of deflation [2] Demographic Factors - Japan has the highest aging population globally, with over 29% aged 65 and above, resulting in low consumption demand and high savings rates [2] - In contrast, China's labor force aged 16-59 constitutes 61.2% of the total population, driving strong consumption demand [2] Economic Growth - Rapid economic growth typically correlates with higher inflation due to increased investment, employment, and consumer demand [3] - Japan has experienced low growth rates averaging around 0.7% from 2014 to 2024, leading to weak overall demand and limited inflationary pressure [3] - China has maintained high growth rates, with a projected GDP growth of approximately 5% in 2024, contributing to inflationary pressures [3] Monetary Policy - Japan's central bank has implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, including zero and negative interest rates, but these have not effectively stimulated inflation due to demographic and growth factors [4] - Japan's M2 money supply grew by only about 35% from 2014 to 2024, indicating low monetary expansion [4] - Conversely, China's M2 money supply increased by approximately 115% during the same period, suggesting greater inflationary pressure [5] Industrial Structure - Japan's highly industrialized and efficient economy allows for productivity gains that can offset cost increases, with manufacturing productivity rising by about 2.1% annually from 2020 to 2025 [5] - China's industrialization is still in progress, leading to more noticeable price increases [5] Housing Market - China's housing market has seen significant price increases over the past two decades, affecting overall consumer prices through direct and indirect channels [6] - Japan's real estate market has remained subdued since the bubble burst, contributing to stable price levels [6] Consumer Behavior - Japanese consumers are highly price-sensitive, which limits companies' ability to raise prices easily [8] - In contrast, Chinese consumers have developed higher inflation expectations, leading to anticipatory consumption that can drive prices up [10] Globalization and Government Regulation - Japan benefits from a global economic structure that allows for low-cost imports and high-value exports, influencing its inflation dynamics [10] - China faces greater pressure from international market fluctuations, impacting its inflation levels [10] - Both countries have different approaches to price monitoring and regulation, with Japan having a more established system [10] Social Welfare Systems - Japan's comprehensive social welfare system helps stabilize prices, while China's system is still developing, leading to higher price pressures in healthcare and education [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The funding market experienced significant upward pressure on interest rates, with R001 and R007 averaging 1.47% and 1.50% respectively, increasing by 10 and 4 basis points week-on-week[1] - The average daily lending volume in the banking system dropped to below 4 trillion yuan, at 3.84 trillion yuan, down from 4.69 trillion yuan the previous week[1] - The pressure on local government bond payments increased, with weekly payment amounts exceeding 500 billion yuan[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The tax period from November 17-19 is expected to have limited impact, with an average tax collection of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan over the past three years[2] - Government bond net payments for the upcoming week are projected at 3629 billion yuan, still above the average level for the year[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to conduct a net injection of 500 billion yuan during the tax period, mitigating overall payment pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - The PBOC will face a total of 12,420 billion yuan in maturities from November 17-21, with reverse repos accounting for 11,220 billion yuan[3] - The PBOC has announced an excess rollover of 8000 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos on the first day of the tax period[3] Group 4: Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.63%, an increase of 0.4 basis points from the previous week[6] - The upcoming week will see 9209 billion yuan in certificates of deposit maturing, up from 7265 billion yuan the previous week[6] Group 5: Government Bonds - Net payments for government bonds from November 17-21 are expected to be 3629 billion yuan, down from 5075 billion yuan the previous week[5] - The issuance scale for government bonds is projected to be lower, with planned issuance of 3717 billion yuan compared to 5944 billion yuan the previous week[5]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, dropping from nearly 95% to around 50%, influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and inflation concerns stemming from tariff policies [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation with the September CPI rising to 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target [2]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed similar views, indicating she would oppose a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized maintaining stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks to price stability over labor market signals [3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are noticeable divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members advocating for caution and others supporting rate cuts, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [3][4]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns about the risks of premature rate cuts in light of persistent inflation and the impact of the government shutdown on data availability [4]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate in the current uncertain environment [4]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut dropped to 44%, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the diminishing likelihood of a rate cut in December [5]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, aligning with the cautious sentiment expressed by several Fed officials [6].

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices have rebounded, while global stock markets showed mixed results this week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.5% [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets generally rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining flat compared to last week [2] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, while London gold prices increased by 2.1% [2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards pausing interest rate cuts in December, citing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation pressures [5] - European Central Bank officials indicated that inflation risks in the Eurozone are skewed to the upside due to increased government spending on military and infrastructure as the economy accelerates [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government has reopened after a 43-day shutdown, with key economic data set to be released soon. However, some data from October may be permanently lost, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making for December [9] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 98.2, the lowest in six months, indicating challenges in sales and profit margins, as well as difficulties in finding qualified employees [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index dropped to -7.4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economy and concerns over high fiscal debt limiting policy options [18] - The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5% in September, leading to increased pressure on the government and the Bank of England to consider tax cuts and interest rate reductions [18]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, influenced by government shutdowns and inflation concerns, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about supporting a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [3][5]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks of prioritizing inflation stability over employment [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are currently four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about the current interest rate being closer to neutral rather than overly tight [6]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed unease about a potential rate cut due to the lack of official data caused by the government shutdown, warning against premature easing in the face of persistent inflation [6]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate given the uncertainty [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, indicating a diminishing likelihood of further easing unless significant economic changes occur [7]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, reflecting the internal divisions and inflationary pressures [8].

2025.11. 15 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 樊志菁 本月以来，有关美联储12月降息概率的走势图上演"过山车"，从一度接近板上钉钉的95%回落到 50%上下。美国联邦政府停摆让美联储的经济现状评估陷入困境，在暂时没有更多迹象证明就业市 场风险和经济降温的背景下，特朗普政府关税政策背后的通胀隐忧使得货币政策的进一步宽松前景越 发不明朗，并已经引发了全球资本市场的动荡。 "鹰王"施密德重申反对降息 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周五表示，通胀仍居高不下，警告额外的降息可能会加剧物价压力。 美国劳工统计局上月末报告显示，9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅升至3%，远高于美联储2% 的通胀目标。施密德在演讲稿中称："在我看来，鉴于通胀仍处于过高水平，货币政策应抑制需求增 长，为供给扩张创造空间，从而缓解经济中的物价压力。" 施密德认为，（降息）可能会对通胀产生更持久的影响，因为人们会越来越质疑我们对2%通胀目标 的承诺。这正是其在上次会议上反对降息的理由，也将继续影响12月会议做准备时的思路。 政策前景如何 距离今年12月议息会议还有不到一个月的时间，美联储内部的分歧立场似乎比当时更 ...

Group 1: Long-term Fund Positioning - In Q3 2025, long-term funds such as insurance funds and state-owned capital increased their positions in low-yield, high-dividend assets like banks and airlines due to asset crowding considerations [1] - There is a renewed focus on technology assets among long-term funds, with insurance funds showing less interest in high-performing sectors like telecommunications and media, while social security funds are more engaged with the AI industry chain, investing in both hardware and software [1] Group 2: A-share Market Strategy - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with manufacturing and cyclical stocks leading the gains, while technology stocks continued to adjust [3] - Historically, the third phase of an upward market is often driven by earnings, indicating a potential shift from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamentals-driven one [3] - Key indicators of economic improvement are found in the AI chain, price increases, capital goods, and consumer goods, suggesting a "barbell" investment strategy with opportunities in relatively low-positioned sectors like electric new energy and chemicals [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in the short term, with no further interest rate cuts anticipated before the end of next year [4] - The central bank will focus on structural policy tools to lower financing costs for the real economy and improve the transmission mechanism of policies [5]

【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行宣布，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，将于11月17日开展8000亿元6个月期买断式逆 回购操作。由于本月有3000亿元同期逆回购到期，此举将实现净投放5000亿元。这是央行连续第六个月加量续做买断式 逆回购，凸显了其维护流动性合理充裕、支持实体经济的坚定决心。 中信证券首席经济学家明明的分析则提供了另一视角，他认为11月份有9000亿元MLF到期，买断式逆回购的净投放增 加，也可能是为了缓解MLF的续做压力，体现了央行在多种货币政策工具间的灵活搭配与精准调控。 展望未来，央行的货币政策立场清晰明确。《报告》在下一阶段主要思路中强调，将实施好适度宽松的货币政策，根据 经济金融形势的变化，做好跨周期和逆周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。市场普遍预计，央行本月将对到期的 9000亿元MLF进行小幅加量续作，并继续综合运用买断式逆回购和MLF等工具，确保流动性合理充裕。 本次操作后，结合月初对7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购的等量续做，11月份央行通过买断式逆回购工具已合计净投放 5000亿元，规模较10月份增加1000亿元。这一系列精准操作，有效对冲了多重因素对银行体系流动性的影响 ...