行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储主席鲍威尔在 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上终于调整货币政策前瞻 指引，年内首次明确支持美联储重启降息进程，美元指数大跌至 97.8 附近而全球 股市和大宗商品受到提振，伦敦金银分别反弹至 3370 和 38.9 美元/盎司附近。特 朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得 到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡整固后再次上涨，建 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market is in a headwind period, with the "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" state likely to continue due to liquidity and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury yield may face two - stage pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. However, the resistance at 1.80% and the difficulty of breaking through 1.90% are relatively high [2][22]. - If three out of four conditions are met in the second half of this year, the probability of the domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is very high. Currently, three conditions are gradually being met, and if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, the probability of the People's Bank of China synchronously lowering the OMO rate in the fourth quarter may increase. Then, the bond market will shift from a headwind period to a tailwind period [3][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: In the week of August 18th, the funds rate first rose and then fell. DR001, R001, DR007, and FR007 all showed fluctuations in the same period [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase volume reached 2.08 trillion yuan, with a total maturity of 711.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 1.37 trillion yuan, which is a relatively large net injection this month [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion range of the Sino - US bond yield spread has shown differentiation. The inversion range of the 6 - month interest rate spread has slightly increased, while the inversion range of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads has slightly decreased [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds remained unchanged, while that of US bonds slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds was 35BP, and that of US bonds was 58BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds changed little, while that of US bonds shifted downward. The yield of Chinese bonds from 3 - month to 1 - year decreased by 2BP, and that from 5 - to 10 - year decreased by 1BP; the overall yield of US bonds decreased by more than 5BP [16]. 3.2 High - frequency Real - estate Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of August 22nd, the commercial housing transactions in first - tier cities were in a low - level oscillation state. The daily average transaction area was 57,500 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was 532 units. The market fluctuated significantly, with the highest point on August 20th and the lowest on August 24th [25]. - **Ten Major Cities**: The commercial housing transaction data of ten major cities rebounded compared with last week, with an average daily transaction area of about 103,700 square meters, an increase of about 20,000 square meters per day compared with last week [25]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The daily average transaction area was about 220,000 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was about 2,566 units. The transaction area and volume reached the weekly peak on August 22nd [25].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡上涨。目前国债期货上行动力不足主要在 ...

贵金属日报 2025-08-26 贵金属 沪金涨 0.13 %，报 779.92 元/克，沪银涨 0.04 %，报 9348.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.25 %， 报 3409.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.41 %，报 38.55 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.28%，美元指数报 98.44 ； 市场展望： 上周五晚间鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的讲话显示其货币政策倾向出现重大边际转向，这标 志着新一轮降息周期的开启：就通胀问题，鲍威尔表示通胀虽然仍相对偏高，但已从疫情后的 高点大幅回落，更关键的是，鲍威尔表示"一个合理的基准情形是，关税对于价格的影响是相 对短暂的，即物价是一次性的变动"，即承认了关税对于通胀的影响并不具备持续性。对于劳 动力市场，鲍威尔表明了担忧，他认为当前劳动力市场的平衡来自于美国劳动力供给和需求的 双重放缓，而这正表明就业下行的风险在上升，并且可能将以裁员增加和失业率迅速上升的方 式呈现。关于后续的货币政策路径，鲍威尔认为联邦公开市场委员会的成员将继续根据数据及 其对经济前景和风险影响的评估来作出决定。即使鲍威尔仍表达了基于就业和通胀的货币政策 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 288.4 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 21.9 billion yuan after offsetting 266.5 billion yuan due that day [1] - In August, the PBOC's net injection through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) reached 300 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity [1] - The total net injection for August was 600 billion yuan, which is double the amount from July, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy stance [2] Group 2 - The increase in MLF and reverse repurchase operations in August is attributed to the peak period of government bond issuance, with net financing potentially reaching 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, aimed at supporting credit growth and meeting financing needs for enterprises and residents [2] - The stability in the bond market is primarily due to a balanced liquidity environment, with no significant redemption pressure observed [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented significant liquidity measures in August, including a net injection of 600 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and various reverse repos, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance aimed at supporting economic stability and growth [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - In August, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 288.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 21.9 billion yuan after offsetting 266.5 billion yuan of maturing reverse repos [1]. - The PBOC also executed a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, leading to a total net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1]. - Cumulatively, the PBOC's actions in August included 12 trillion yuan in reverse repos, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan after accounting for 9 trillion yuan of maturing repos [1]. Group 2: Economic Context and Analysis - The net liquidity injection in August reached 600 billion yuan, double that of July, reflecting a moderately accommodative monetary policy [2]. - Factors contributing to the increased liquidity include a peak in government bond issuance, with net financing potentially reaching 1.8 trillion yuan, and regulatory efforts to stabilize credit support from financial institutions [2]. - The tightening of liquidity in mid-August due to maturing reverse repos, tax payments, and stock market demands prompted the PBOC to enhance liquidity through MLF and other tools to maintain market stability [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity environment is expected to remain stable as the PBOC adopts a supportive stance, with no significant fluctuations anticipated beyond seasonal patterns [2]. - The ongoing government bond issuance and the need for a conducive financial environment suggest that the PBOC will continue to manage liquidity proactively [3].

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 8 月 25 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 债券成为弱势资产了吗？ 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3债券成为弱势资产了吗？ [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 25 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月以来债券市场的调整幅度已与去年 924 后大致相当，但由于基金久期较 长、年内累积的浮盈较低，当前的市场情绪似乎更弱，甚至有观点认为由 于缺乏趋势性行情带来的赚钱效应，债券已经变成了一种弱势资产，甚至 需要转入熊市思维。但债券还 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今日（8月25日），中国人民银行（以下简称人民银行或央行）将以固定 数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 MLF目前定位于为金融机构投放中长期流动性。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，8月有3000亿元 MLF到期，这意味着8月央行MLF净投放达到3000亿元，符合预期，为连续第六个月加量续作。考虑到 截至8月22日，央行还开展了3000亿元买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着8月中期流动性净投放总额达6000 亿元，相当于上月的2倍。 有助于稳定市场预期 王青分析称，在5月份降准释放长期流动性1万亿元之后，近三个月中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，且 8月净投放规模显著扩大，主要有以下三个原因。一是现阶段处于政府债券持续发行高峰期，同时监管 层也在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。 王青进一步表示，7月新增信贷出现罕见负值，主要受6月信贷透支，以及隐债置换等短期因素影响，8 月新增信贷将恢复正值。央行持续注入中期流动性，体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的协调配合，有助 于推动宽信用进程，更好满足企业和居民的融资需求。 二是受"反内卷"牵动市场预期，以及股市走强等 ...

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 8月25日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民 币7.1161元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1321元，调升160个基点，创2024年11月以来新高。 此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前通胀上行风险依然存 在，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息。市场对美联储降息的预期升温，多位分析人士认为人民币有望升 值。 总体来看，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，未来人民币走势主要受三大因素影响：中美经贸对话磋 商进展、美元走势以及国内宏观政策的节奏和力度。鉴于中美围绕高关税问题的磋商过程复杂曲折，人 民币汇率难以持续单边升值，谈判波折或冲击汇率。不过，下半年财政加力、货币宽松以及推动房地产 市场止跌回稳等政策将陆续落地，这些不仅能对冲外部波动对经济的影响，巩固高质量发展基本面，还 将有力支撑人民币汇率，国内稳增长政策持续发力是稳汇率的最大确定性因素。 （编辑：朱紫云 审核：何莎莎 校对：颜京宁） 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平分析，人民币有望加快恢复性升值。2025年以来，美元指数累计下滑 超过10%，一度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On August 25, the yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also rose. The domestic economic fundamentals showed mixed performance, with the financial data in July being structurally differentiated and the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents still insufficient. Overseas, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The bond market is currently suppressed by market risk appetite and lacks independent upward momentum. The central bank's monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone but with limited scope for overall easing. As a result, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further, and the rebound of treasury bond futures is insufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased recovery opportunities of treasury bond futures [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.27%, 0.15%, 0.1%, and 0.78% respectively. T, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 14,647, 14,715, and 9,853 respectively, while TF main contract trading volume increased by 727 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the futures spreads changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing. For example, the TL2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.12 to - 0.39, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.53 to - 8.85 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, with decreases of 7,135, 9,542, 4,990, and 4,719 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in each contract all increased [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB increasing by 0.1358 to 105.7269 [2] - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year yields decreased by 0.50bp, and 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 1.75bp, 1.75bp, and 2.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver pledge rate decreased by 14.78bp to 1.3022%, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.20bp to 1.3560%. The 7 - day silver pledge rate increased by 14.77bp to 1.5977%, and the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.10bp to 1.4840% [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.4 Public Market Operations - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on August 26, the net MLF investment in August reached 300 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [2] 3.5 Industry News - Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, including measures such as reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, and personal housing credit policies, which will take effect on August 26, 2025 [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - August 28, 17:00, Eurozone August industrial sentiment index - August 29, 20:30, US July core PCE price index annual rate [2]