农产品日报 | 2025-05-28 供应仍显宽松，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13560元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.14元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1040，较前交易日变动+180；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.76元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1200，较前交易日变动+130； 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.36元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+800，较前交易日变动+120。 据农业农村部监测，5月27日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.07，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为114.28，比昨天上升0.12个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.91元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%；牛肉63.00 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；羊肉59.36元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.72元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；白条鸡17.53元/ 公斤，比昨天上升1.3%。 市场分析 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market remains weak due to the loose supply - demand situation. The price of liquefied petroleum gas shows different trends in various regions, with the overall supply being abundant and demand being sluggish. The unilateral strategy is to expect a weak oscillation, and the PG price is at a relatively low level with limited downside space [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on May 27**: Shandong market: 4450 - 4540 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 4100 - 4250 yuan/ton; North China market: 4500 - 4670 yuan/ton; East China market: 4400 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4650 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market: 4750 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's East and South China Import Prices in Late June 2025**: In East China, propane is 609 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4819 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan/ton); butane is 561 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4439 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton). In South China, propane is 612 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4843 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan/ton); butane is 564 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4463 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Spot prices in East and Northwest China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The overall atmosphere was mild, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand and sellers' inventories in good condition. Overseas supply remained abundant, and domestic refinery supply was expected to increase after the end of spring maintenance. The combustion demand entered the off - season, and the improvement of chemical demand was weak due to profit issues. Port inventories were high due to previous concentrated imports and needed to be gradually digested by the market [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and since the PG price is at a relatively low level, the downside space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Spot prices have been falling, and the futures price of SI2507 has decreased. The supply side is expected to increase, while the main demand from the photovoltaic industry chain remains weak, though the organic silicon industry chain shows some signs of improvement. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish, and prices are under pressure [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are gradually stabilizing, and futures prices have also shown signs of stabilization. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation if there is no further production cut. Some enterprises are restarting production or replacing capacity. The 06 contract price is relatively firm due to controllable warehouse receipt pressure. Technically, the futures price has rebounded, and it is advisable to try long positions while paying attention to production volume [2]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asian production areas is affected by heavy rainfall, but there is an expectation of increased supply after the rainy season, which may lead to raw material pressure. On the demand side, tire enterprise开工 rates are in a recovery state, but tire factory inventories are accumulating again, especially for semi - steel tires. Due to the low warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber, the rubber sector has rebounded, but weak demand expectations and the expectation of increased raw material supply during the peak production period suggest that rubber prices are likely to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to the performance around the 14,000 level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Although there was a negative impact from the planned production of Lianyungang Alkali Industry last week, it will take time to produce products, and recent maintenance has led to a significant decline in production. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance in June, so the downward trend in the futures market has slowed. In the short term, inventory is likely to remain stable. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance ends. It is advisable to track the implementation of maintenance in May - June. For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds in the far - month contracts, and for spread trading, consider a 7 - 9 positive spread [4]. - **Glass**: The spot market for glass is performing poorly, and market sentiment is pessimistic. This week, spot prices have weakened further, and the sales rate of manufacturers has been affected by the selling of futures - cash merchants during the futures price decline. Although the demand from downstream deep - processing factories has improved seasonally from April to May, market expectations are poor due to the expected summer rainy season starting in June. The current fundamentals have marginally improved, but expectations and sentiment are neutral to weak. It is expected that glass prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at the 1000 level for the 09 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with declines of 1.16%, 1.60%, and 1.24% respectively. The basis for these varieties all increased, with increases ranging from 21.93% to 29.93% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 contracts showed different changes on May 27 compared to May 26, with changes ranging from - 66.67% to 16.67% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April 2025, national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 million tons to 30.08 million tons, a decline of 12.10%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 20.55%, while Yunnan and Sichuan's production increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and regional开工 rates also showed corresponding changes. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while industrial silicon exports increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - From the previous period, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 6.95%, Yunnan's increased by 1.26%, and Sichuan's decreased by 0.44%. Social inventory decreased by 2.84%, warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.44%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 5.67% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. However, the basis for N - type material and cauliflower material decreased by 25.08% and 5.69% respectively [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The PS2506 futures price increased by 1.16% on May 27 compared to May 26. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 30.43% to 32.86% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 7.09% to 13.30 GM, and polysilicon production increased by 0.47% to 2.15 million tons. In April, polysilicon production decreased by 0.73%, imports decreased by 69.49%, exports decreased by 37.06%, and net exports increased by 127.44%. Silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all increased, and silicon wafer demand increased by 14.36% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00% to 26.00 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52% to 18.95 GW. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470 [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the price of South China state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 0.70%, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.35%. The basis for whole - milk rubber increased by 5.00%. The prices of some raw materials such as cup rubber decreased, while others remained unchanged [3]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.63%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 44.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.95% on May 27 compared to May 26 [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased slightly. Domestic tire production and tire export volume decreased in April. The import volume of natural rubber in March and April also decreased. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber showed different changes [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.73%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 38.02%. The入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in Qingdao showed various changes [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 28, the spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 0.27%, and the 2509 contract price increased by 1.18%. The 05 basis increased by 6.00% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of soda ash in East China decreased by 3.45%, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 1.55%, and the 2509 contract price decreased by 1.79%. The 05 basis increased by 9.43% [4]. Supply - The soda ash开工 rate decreased by 2.04%, and the weekly production decreased by 2.05%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.82%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [4]. Real Estate Data (Monthly) - In April, the year - on - year change in new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [4].

6. 一财记者走访多家供应商发现，随着中国汽车市场打起"价格战"，上游企业利润空间持续压缩至 10%，账期也长达120天。业内人士认为"价格战"可能导致供应商陷入亏损和汽车质量安全问题。 7. 上期所公告，自2025年5月29日（星期四）收盘结算时起，氧化铝期货合约的涨跌停板幅度从7%上调 至9%，套保交易保证金比例从8%上调至10%，投机交易保证金比例从9%上调至11%；白银期货合约的 涨跌停板幅度从11%上调至12%，套保交易保证金比例从12%上调至13%，投机交易保证金比例从13% 上调至14%。 8. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，贵州某中型氧化铝企业近日开始复产，暂未形成满产，阶段运行产能60 万吨左右，以满足长单交付为主，后续企业重点关注近期氧化铝价格走势再定满产节奏 9. 国际铝业协会（IAI）数据显示，2025年4月全球氧化铝产量为1240.7万吨，日均产量为41.36万吨；中 国2025年4月氧化铝预估产量为738.4万吨。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月28日） 1. 上期能源公告，自2025年5月29日（星期四）收盘结算时起，集运指数（欧线）期货合约的涨跌停板 幅度从16%上调至1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure due to good weather in the US crop area and demand concerns caused by trade tariffs. The domestic continuous meal M09 is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and the spot basis is likely to continue to decline. For the hog market, the short - term supply and demand are slightly increased, in a slightly loose balance state, and the price may be under pressure [16][17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes up 20 - 50 yuan/ton in some areas but down 10 yuan/ton in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. DCE hog main contract 2509 fell 0.29% to 13560 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary hogs was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell 0.66% to 1061 cents/bushel [2] 2. Main Producing Area Weather - There were showers in the western and southern parts of the US Midwest main producing area last weekend, which was beneficial for crop growth. The cold weather will last until most of this week, and the temperature will rise until June. Some sowing work may be delayed [4] 3. Macro and Industry News - In the 21st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, the soybean meal inventory increased by 70.01% week - on - week, and the unexecuted contracts decreased by 17.23% week - on - week. The US soybean import cost on May 27 was 4569 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day, and the Argentine soybean import cost was 3590 yuan, up 2 yuan. On May 26, the soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills decreased by 7.68 tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 66.73%, up 2.86%. On May 27, the daily hog slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises increased by 1.95%, and the daily hog出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 0.43%. As of May 24, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5%. In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipment was 1115.43 tons. As of May 26, the national imported soybean port inventory was 567.068 tons. From January to April, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4% [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, hog prices, and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][12][14] 5. Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure. The domestic continuous meal M09 is expected to oscillate. The national oil mills maintain a high startup level, and the soybean meal demand increases. The inventory is expected to accumulate faster in June. The spot basis is under pressure to decline [16] - **Hogs**: The supply slightly increases with general pressure, and the mid - term supply pressure tends to increase. The terminal demand decreases, but the demand may increase briefly during the Dragon Boat Festival. The short - term supply and demand are slightly increased, in a slightly loose balance state, and the price may be under pressure [17]

投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 27 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内触底回升 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡下行，午后企稳回升，主力期价在 7.8 万一线有一 定支撑。宏观层面，今日国内氛围转弱，有色普跌；近期指数弱势 运行，利好铜价。产业层面，上周库存边际上升给予期价压力，26 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 14.11 万吨，较上周下降 0.11 万吨，利好 铜价。短期持续关注 7.8 万一线多空博弈，预计期价偏强震荡运行。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘跳水，随后在 2 万一线震荡企稳。宏观层面，今日 国内氛围转弱， ...

花生需求疲软，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 油料日报 | 2025-05-27 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4144.00元/吨，较前日变化-28.00元/吨，幅度-0.67%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+16，较前日变化+28，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周五，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低0.6%，主要是美国总统特 朗普通过社交媒体再次提出对欧盟进口商品征收50%关税，引发市场担忧欧洲对美国农产品采取报复性措施，促使 投资者在长周末前迅速撤资离市。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌2.75美分到7.25美分不等，其中7月期约下跌7.25美分， 报收1060.25美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌6.50美分，报收1056美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌4.75美分，报收1050.50美分/ 蒲式耳。5月26日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭 山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report has a negative impact due to a significant increase in production and higher - than - expected ending inventory [24]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a positive impact as the 25/26 annual US soybean ending inventory estimate is lower than market expectations [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3819.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of - 0.26% [1]. - The closing price of ICE Brent 08 is 64.18, with a previous day's decline of - 0.33% and an overnight increase of 0.31% [1]. - The closing price of NYMEX US crude oil 07 is 61.53, with a previous day's decline of - 0.37% and an overnight increase of 0.34% [1]. - The US dollar index is 98.99, with a decline of - 0.09% [2]. - The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1833, with a decline of - 0.12% [2]. - The MYR/USD exchange rate is 4.2317, with a decline of - 0.83% [2]. - The IDR/USD exchange rate is 16215, with a decline of - 0.57% [2]. - The BRL/USD exchange rate is 5.6464, with a decline of - 1.03% [2]. - The ARS/USD exchange rate is 1143.000, with an increase of 1.06% [2]. - The SGD/USD exchange rate is 1.2851, with a decline of - 0.42% [2]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China is 8440, with a basis of 470 and a daily basis change of - 10; in South China, the spot price is 8420, with a basis of 450 and a daily basis change of - 30 [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 7980, with a basis of 266 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 8020, with a basis of 306 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Guangdong, the spot price is 8000, with a basis of 286 and a daily basis change of - 38; in Tianjin, the spot price is 7900, with a basis of 186 and a daily basis change of - 18 [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 2880, with a basis of - 73 and a daily basis change of - 39; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 2870, with a basis of - 83 and a daily basis change of - 19; in Guangdong, the spot price is 2900, with a basis of - 53 and a daily basis change of 1; in Tianjin, the spot price is 2960, with a basis of 7 and a daily basis change of - 9 [3]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 145 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 443 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - From May 31 to June 4, in the northeastern US soybean - producing states, the temperature is higher than normal and the precipitation is generally low [6]. - In the US Midwest, there will be rainfall and low temperatures. Recent heavy precipitation is beneficial for soil moisture, but it may delay sowing in the southern areas. Frost may occur in the northern remote areas [8]. International Supply and Demand - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 0.73%, with a 1.06% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.34% increase in oil extraction rate [10]. - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were estimated to be 991,702 tons (AmSpec) and 947,248 tons (SGS), increasing by 7.3% and 34.71% respectively compared to the same period last month [10][11]. - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons [11]. - Thailand's domestic trade department requires the palm oil purchase price to be no less than 5 Thai baht per kilogram and the retail price of bottled palm oil to be no more than 50 Thai baht per liter [11]. - The estimated Brazilian soybean production in 2024/25 is 1.720 billion tons, and the corn production is 1.327 billion tons [11]. - As of May 24, 2024/25, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5% [12]. - In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's soybean loading volume was 11.1543 million tons, and the daily average loading volume increased by 8.96% compared to May last year [12]. - The EU's 2025 rapeseed yield per unit is predicted to be 3.14 tons per hectare [12]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes decreased by 7.2% and 10.27% respectively compared to the previous month [13]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed price increased, and the estimated production is 3.25 million tons, lower than the 2024/25 level [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 42% compared to the previous trading day [16]. - On May 26, the trading volume of soybean meal was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous day [16]. - The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 66.73%, an increase of 2.86% compared to the previous day [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil was 338,700 tons, a decrease of 5.84% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 697,200 tons, an increase of 6.23% compared to the previous week [17]. - It is expected that the imported soybean arrivals in June and July will be 12 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will increase significantly [17]. 04 Macroeconomic News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.6% [21]. - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 [21]. - OPEC+ adjusted the July production decision - making meeting to May 31, and there are rumors that the daily production may increase by 411,000 barrels in July [21]. Domestic News - On May 26, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.1833, a decrease of 86 points [23]. - On May 26, the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 247 billion yuan [23]. 05 Supply - Demand Reports - Malaysia's April palm oil ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a negative impact on the market [24]. - The USDA May report adjusted the 24/25 US soybean exports upward and the ending inventory downward. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory estimate was lower than market expectations, with a positive impact [25]. 06 Capital Flow - On May 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 10.219 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.48 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 11.699 billion yuan in stock index futures [28].

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