新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-22 消息端扰动较多，盘面受消息扰动加大 市场分析 2025年5月21日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于61060元/吨，收于61100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.59%。当 日成交量为270174手，持仓量为329205手，较前一交易日减少10468手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1950 元/吨。所有合约总持仓571450手，较前一交易日增加11744手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加26820手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.5。当日碳酸锂仓单36393手，较上个交易日减少152手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月21日电池级碳酸锂报价6.13-6.48万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.02万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.095-6.195万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下行。当前 碳酸锂市场延续弱势运行格局，价格持续承压。从当前市场成交情况来看，以贸易商与下游材料厂之间的成交为 主，但成交寥寥。下游材料厂在客供及长协比例较高的情况下，等待价格的进一步下探。上游锂盐厂虽挺价情绪 持续，但考虑到目前锂 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产持续增产，原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升，盘面受到压制，走势偏弱；成 | | | | 本端反弹，但下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软，基差走弱，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑， | | | | 内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降，4 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，出口后市尚存不确定性，盘面 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the recent trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. There may be a short - term correction, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge at high prices. - For the stainless steel market, due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel continues to weaken. It may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge at high prices. [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,450 yuan/ton and closed at 123,280 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 107,562 lots, and the open interest was 59,648 lots. - The main contract 2506 fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and the daily line closed with a small negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning green, indicating a possible short - term downward trend. There were top and bottom divergence phenomena on the 60 - minute line. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands varied. The overall trading of refined nickel spot was average, and the premium and discount decreased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,014 (- 128.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 201,786 (- 312) tons. [1][2] - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is 122,000 - 123,000. The unilateral strategy is mainly range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,812 lots, and the open interest was 126,182 lots. - The main contract of stainless steel fluctuated narrowly following the nickel market, and the daily line closed with a small positive line. The trading volume and open interest of the 07 contract decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day, and individual merchants lowered the price by 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. The nickel - iron market quotation was basically the same as the previous trading day, and it was expected to be weak in the short term. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,175 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium and discount was 350 - 600 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 946.5 yuan/nickel point. [3][4][5] - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated as neutral. BR is also rated as neutral [4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The news of the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese light - truck tires had a weak impact on the market, with limited actual influence as the market had long anticipated it. The cost support for natural rubber remains strong, and the supply and demand situation is expected to improve slightly. The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate. For BR, the supply pressure is small and the later - stage supply will decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the price has certain support, but attention should be paid to the price of upstream butadiene [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, the RU main contract closed at 14,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market Information - In April, the export volume of Chinese truck and bus tires was 410,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.43% and a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 1,489,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.45%. In April, exports to Asia ranked first at 164,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. Exports to South America and Oceania increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with exports to South America performing better, a month - on - month increase of 8.51% and a year - on - year increase of 46.09%. On May 21, the EU officially launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese light - truck tires, with the final result to be determined next year [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On May 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 70 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 270 yuan/ton (- 70), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,188 yuan/ton (+ 157.65), the NR basis was 90 yuan/ton (+ 129). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 3L spot was 15,900 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,780 US dollars/ton (- 10). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 68.59 Thai baht/kg (- 3.00), the price of Thai latex was 62.75 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 8.55 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.88% (+ 18.19%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.21% (+ 24.50%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,342,455 tons (- 13,072), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 614,189 tons (- 4,504), the RU futures inventory was 200,270 tons (- 230), and the NR futures inventory was 70,257 tons (- 4,435) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On May 21, 2025, the BR basis was 200 yuan/ton (+ 70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,500 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 12,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,100 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 956 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.20% (+ 4.46%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,800 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,000 tons (+ 350) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The anti - dumping investigation by the EU has limited actual impact. The cost support for natural rubber is strong, and it is expected that the raw material output in the production areas will increase in June. The domestic basis has weakened slightly. After the profit of downstream tires is restored, it can offset part of the pressure of the increase in finished product inventory. It is expected that the operating rate of tire factories will perform well in the later stage. The overall supply and demand situation is expected to improve slightly, but the price is expected to fluctuate. For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply pressure is small and the later - stage output will decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the price has certain support, but attention should be paid to the price of upstream butadiene [4][5]

1、\t5月21日地区价格：山东市场，4450—4550；东北市场，4200—4490；华北市场，4500—4805；华东市场， 4480—4780；沿江市场，4820—5100；西北市场，4350—4650；华南市场，4800—4880。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年6月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷618美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4894元/吨，跌24元/吨，丁烷4498元/吨，跌24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年6月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷621美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷571美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4918元/吨，涨40元/吨，丁烷4522元/吨，涨40元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 当前LPG市场缺乏利好催化，整体延续弱势氛围，华东现货价格继续下跌。目前来看，供需两端均存在压力。一 方面，下游燃烧与化工需求较差，PDH装置开工率偏低，此外国内汽油市场低迷也压制了烷基化与MTBE等碳四下 游；另一方面，4、5月份的集中进口使得港口库存高企，有待市场逐步消化。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱，PG位置较 ...

2025/5/22 10:05 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA 5 20 3.72% 4 339.5 20250522 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕5月前20日产量增加3.72% 阿 根廷4月大豆压榨量为339.5万吨 20250522 2025年05月22日 07:31 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3905.00 | -0. 36 | 0. 23 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 64. 58 | -1.55 | -1.04 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61. 34 | -1.46 | -0.98 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1061. 75 | 0. 71 | -0.23 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 293. 70 | 0. 44 | 0. 07 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.75 | 0. 36 | -0.66 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 67,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 73,000 tons, an 8.96% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 599,000 tons, a 0.50% increase; the sample - enterprise inventory was 247,600 tons, a 6.53% decrease; the main - port inventory was 132,000 tons, a 0.75% decrease [8]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,615 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [7]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,760 - 7,970 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned output for May is 94,800 tons, a 0.62% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer output last week was 12.42 GW, a 0.56% increase; the inventory was 194,400 tons, a 7.22% increase. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 54.3 GW, a 6.94% decrease from the previous month. The battery - cell output in April was 65.55 GW, a 14.35% increase; the external - sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.91 GW, a 76.56% increase. The production of battery cells is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 60.84 GW, a 7.18% decrease. The component output in April was 59.4 GW, a 16.47% increase; the expected component output for May is 53.03 GW, a 10.72% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 51.3 GW, an 11.74% increase; the European monthly inventory is 41.28 GW, a 14.35% decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type materials in the industry is 36,330 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 170 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 35,215 - 36,505 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost support has increased, and the supply - side production plan has decreased [7][8]. - Basis: On May 21st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory situation is mixed, with an increase in social inventory and decreases in sample - enterprise and main - port inventories. Bearish [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost is stable, and although the supply - side production plan is decreasing, the demand is expected to recover in the medium term [10][11]. - Basis: On May 21st, the price of N - type polysilicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history. Neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the longs decreased. Bullish [11]. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1.32%, the 02 contract down 1.09%, etc. [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon also showed a downward trend, with the price of East - China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon down 1.15% [18]. - Inventory data showed changes in different regions, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts increased, and the prices of various silicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having small fluctuations [20]. Downstream Market Analysis Organic Silicon - DMC production: The daily production capacity utilization rate was 60.11%, remaining unchanged from the previous period and lower than the historical average [41]. - Price and cost: The price of DMC and other organic - silicon products remained stable, and the cost and profit situation showed certain characteristics, with the profit of DMC at - 301 yuan/ton [18][41]. - Inventory: The monthly inventory of DMC was 105,000 tons, a 7.49% decrease [18]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: The daily price of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,400 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply and demand: The monthly production of primary - aluminum - based aluminum - alloy ingots increased by 4.45%, while the monthly production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 5.28% [18]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots was 13,900 tons, a 5.44% decrease [18]. Polysilicon - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable at 36.33 yuan/kg [20]. - Price: The prices of various polysilicon products showed a downward trend, with the price of granular silicon down 1.52% [20]. - Supply and demand: The supply and demand situation showed certain changes, with the monthly supply increasing by 6.66% and the monthly consumption increasing by 7.03% [20]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, and the domestic component inventory increased by 11.74% [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The destocking pace of styrene ports has slowed down, with the inventory not further decreasing on Wednesday. The production profits of PS and ABS are waiting to improve due to the previous high styrene prices. There is potential for the demand of CPL and aniline to recover, but the actual increase in production is still slow. Attention should be paid to the further repair of pure benzene processing fees and the subsequent arrival pressure of pure benzene [1][2]. Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - EB main contract basis is 256 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton); styrene non - integrated production profit is 318 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress; East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is -25 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [1]. EB& Pure Benzene Start - up and Inventory - Pure benzene port inventory is 12.80 million tons (+0.50 million tons); styrene East China port inventory is 52,100 tons (-4,600 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 36,900 tons (-8,000 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. Styrene start - up rate is 71.3% (-0.9%) [1]. Downstream Start - up and Production Profit - EPS production profit is 288 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), PS production profit is -312 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 113 yuan/ton (-68 yuan/ton). EPS start - up rate is 62.34% (+14.96%), PS start - up rate is 57.10% (+0.80%), ABS start - up rate is 67.39% (-1.61%), and the downstream start - up is at a seasonal low [1]. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but mentioned that the inventory pressure of CPL, PA6, and MDI has been relieved, and the nylon inventory is still waiting for further destocking [2]. Strategy - Cautiously go long for hedging [3]

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic LPG supply is expected to gradually increase, chemical demand is expected to recover, and combustion demand will continue to decline. Overall, the LPG market may continue its oscillating downward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - **Domestic Prices**: On Wednesday, civil gas prices in Shandong remained stable at 4490, decreased by 98 to 4581 in East China, and decreased by 10 to 4840 in South China. Imported gas prices in East China remained flat at 4990, and decreased by 40 to 4950 in South China. The price of ether - post - carbon four increased by 60 to 4670. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490 [1]. - **PG Futures**: The PG futures market oscillated. The basis of the 06 contract reached 254, the 06 - 07 spread weakened to 54, and the 07 - 09 spread strengthened slightly to 141. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1]. Weekly Changes - **Domestic Prices**: Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly. In South China, it was 4920 (-3.3%), in East China 4906 (-0.7%), in Shandong 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong ether - post was 4520 (-5.8%). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post C4 [1]. - **PG Futures**: The center of gravity of the PG futures market moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the 06 - 07 spread was 81 (-23), and the 07 - 08 spread was 76 (-8) [1]. - **External Market**: After the tariff eased, external market prices rose. MB was at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP followed slightly, reaching 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargoes decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount turned positive to single - digits. The internal - external price spread decreased significantly. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East increased slightly, reaching 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: High arrival volumes and little change in demand led to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory remained basically flat. The LPG commodity volume was 50.41 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commodity volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease [1]. - **Chemical Demand**: The PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), and production margins recovered. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commodity volume was 18,450 (-1,100), and profitability expanded significantly to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%). It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly next week. Crude oil rebound pushed MTBE to stop falling and rise. Supply was scarce, exports were stable, and manufacturers intended to hold prices, but downstream resistance increased. It is expected that MTBE will decline slightly but overall decline will be limited [1]. - **Combustion Demand**: As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].