021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 ...

Report Information - Report title: Polyolefins Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term polyolefin market has no clear cost guidance, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack support, so it will be adjusted weakly [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6835 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.32%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 11,929 lots in positions to 516,737 lots. PP2601 closed at 6400 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan, a decline of 0.34%, with a decrease of 2378 lots in positions to 618,000 lots. The futures' rise had limited impact on the market atmosphere. Traders adjusted prices slightly, and downstream buyers purchased raw materials as needed with weak speculative intention [6] - Supply: The loss of production due to maintenance decreased, and the weekly output increased as expected [6] - Demand: In November, demand is expected to weaken. After replenishing at low prices, downstream buyers returned to purchasing based on rigid demand [6] - Cost: OPEC+ suspended production increase in the first quarter of next year, but the oversupply situation is hard to reverse. Oil prices face continuous oversupply pressure, and the cost support for plastics is hard to find [6] 2. Industry News - Inventory: On November 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.43%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 635,000 tons [7] - PE price: The PE market price was weakly sorted. The LLDPE price in North China was 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, in East China was 6900 - 7400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene price: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5900 - 5980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The cost of polypropylene was under pressure, the enthusiasm for plant operation decreased, and the downstream's willingness to pursue high prices weakened slightly [7] - PP price: The PP market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6200 - 6380 yuan/ton, in East China was 6280 - 6500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6400 - 6540 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change, with data from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Paper pulp: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Sugar: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Apple: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Timber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - 20 - rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Natural rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Butadiene rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, presenting their current market situations, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities while also highlighting some potential trading points and market factors to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is intensively listed and demand is average, pressuring prices, but the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons and an increase of 1.342 million tons compared to the four - year average. The cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with spinning mills having few new orders, reduced operation rates, and weaving mills mainly making rigid purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and had better transactions. The USDA November report was bearish, with the US cotton production in the 25/26 season significantly increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and the sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting the sugar - making season, and due to good weather conditions, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly operating. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there was still pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's estimated production. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, there were sporadic transactions of apples in cold storage, mainly medium and small fruits, and the price slightly increased. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory in the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of traders and fruit farmers to hold back sales is high, which may affect the inventory - clearing speed. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - clearing situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price slightly decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price slightly increased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price increased. Globally, the natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to slowly rise. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, the spot inventory is increasing, the cost support is stable, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR&BR [6] Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to decline. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of the mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a cumulative increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The domestic port inventory is continuously increasing, the supply is still in a relatively loose situation, the pulp demand continues to be weak, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. After the basis widened and then significantly narrowed, the price continuously declined due to the generally weak fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to increase. The domestic spot price remained weak, and traders' import willingness decreased. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. Traders' pressure has increased, and it is expected that imports will not significantly increase in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain at a low level. The port delivery volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The original inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The low inventory supports the price to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Bullish (One Star) - Propylene, Polyolefin, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 1.2 Bearish (Three Stars) - Ethylene Glycol [1] 1.3 Neutral (White Stars) - Styrene, PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Glass, Soda Ash [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures of various chemical products show different trends. Some are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and international oil prices, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Different product sectors have different influencing factors, including upstream raw material prices, downstream demand changes, and overseas supply uncertainties [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely around the 5 - day moving average. Low enterprise inventory supports prices, but downstream cost pressure and low international oil prices may drag down sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures have narrow - range fluctuations. For polyethylene, cost support weakens, supply pressure is high, and demand is limited, so prices will be weak. For polypropylene, inventory is transferred to the middle - link, but downstream demand is poor, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [2] 3.2 Polyester - Falling oil prices but firm PX support PTA prices. PTA has increased device maintenance due to poor efficiency, and terminal demand is weakening. For ethylene glycol, supply pressure is high, and the market is expected to be bearish. Short fiber has no new investment pressure but demand is expected to weaken, and bottle chip demand is declining with over - capacity as a long - term issue [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The narrowing of the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread makes the market focus on Asian aromatic hydrocarbon outflows. Pure benzene prices rebound strongly, but the sustainability of exports to the US is to be observed. Styrene futures rise, with cost support from pure benzene and supply reduction and increased export demand [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are in low - level oscillations. Overseas device operation is high, and demand is expected to be weak. Urea futures fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural demand is weakening, but industrial demand is picking up, and supply remains high [6] 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to decline due to weakened cost support. Although exports to India may improve, the overall demand boost is limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend, with cost support insufficient and downstream demand weak [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to decline as the cost side moves down. The industry inventory decreases, and the supply - demand pattern is in surplus in the long - term. Glass also declines, with high intermediate - link inventory. Although cost support exists at the current price, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

2025年11月20日，国内主力合约涨跌互现。LU燃油、跌超3%，工业硅、玻璃、纸浆、纯碱、棕榈油、 多晶硅、乙二醇跌超2%。涨幅方面，纯苯涨超2%，苯乙烯、鸡蛋、苹果涨超1%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com | 序号 | 合约名称 | 開新 | 测手 | 采价 | 卖价 | 法幅%1 | 武昌 | 原标 | 成交量 | 液肤 | 持包量 | 日相仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 纯年2603 M | 5596 | 11 | 2593 | 5596 | 2.04% | 2 | 6 | 22838 | 112 | 22523 | 1602 | | 2 | 33 2601 M | 3238 | 1 | 3237 | 3738 | 1.95% | 1 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/20 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MFA responds to China's suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. Fu ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight and spot market conditions of commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, and soybeans, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It presents data on price changes, supply - demand situations, weather impacts, and policy - related information, offering a multi - faceted perspective on the commodities market. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD's February palm oil futures was 4,184.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.38% and an overnight decrease of 0.99%. Other commodities like Brent crude oil, U.S. crude oil, U.S. soybeans, etc., also show different price change trends [1]. - **Currency**: The latest prices and percentage changes of multiple currencies are provided. For instance, the U.S. dollar index was 100.18, up 0.60% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's January 2026 palm oil futures in North China was 8,930, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. For example, the CNF premium for U.S. Gulf soybeans was 245 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 513 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Production Area Weather**: In the Brazilian soybean - growing areas, the weather varies by region, with potential risks as the key growing season approaches in December. In Argentina, early - season soil moisture is high, but there are concerns about future rainfall [3]. - **International Supply and Demand**: - A Malaysian palm oil producer aims to increase production. Sarawak Oil Palms plans to increase production by 5% year - on - year and has a 15 - year replanting plan [5][6]. - S&P Global Energy predicts that U.S. corn planting area will decrease by 3.8%, while soybean planting area will increase by 4% in 2026 [6]. - A U.S. private exporter reported selling 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [6]. - Analysts predict that U.S. soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales will have different net increases in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 fiscal years [7]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 178.76 million tons, a record high despite a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September forecast. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% [8]. - Anec expects Brazil's November soybean exports to reach 4.71 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.68 million tons [8]. - Argentine farmers' soybean sales and export registration data are provided [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index and related ship - type indices show an upward trend, indicating a recovery in global dry - bulk shipping demand [10]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On November 19, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose. Agricultural product wholesale prices showed minor fluctuations [11]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - **International News**: - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December and January is presented, along with the Fed's policy - related news such as the rescheduling of the non - farm payroll report and differences among officials [13]. - U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data shows a significant decrease [13]. - Other data such as U.S. mortgage application index, trade balance, and international central bank interest - rate decisions are provided [13][14]. - **Domestic News**: The U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on November 19. The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 11.5 billion yuan [16][17]. 3.5 Fund Flows On November 19, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 2.798 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 8.73 billion yuan, while stock - index futures and bond futures had net outflows [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; demand is picking up but supply pressure still exists, with limited upward driving force, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Core Viewpoints - The spot market for propylene has warmed up, but the futures market has continued to weaken. The basis has strengthened significantly due to the continued decline in coal prices and the expectation of weakening cost support on the futures market, while the expectation of loose supply and demand for propylene remains unchanged [2] - On the supply side, the overall supply pattern of propylene remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still relatively high. On the demand side, the demand support has increased, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded slightly. The cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [27][28][32] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - It covers the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [34][35][37] 5. Propylene Inventory - It includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [60][61]

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Apple futures prices fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji apples are gradually winding up, and the in - warehouse transactions are stable. The price of high - quality goods is firm, but the market sales are average due to the impact of citrus competitors. The short - term market is expected to be stable with support, and future attention should be paid to inventory digestion [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9375 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.61%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1875, a change of + 58 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1075, a change of + 58 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji are gradually winding up, and the in - warehouse transactions are stable. The western outbound is still concentrated in Gansu and Shaanxi Xunyi. The market supply in Shandong is decreasing, and the quality of ground goods is declining. The price of high - quality goods is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be stable. Currently, affected by citrus and other competing fruits, the market sales are average, and future attention should be paid to the market's digestion ability of inventory goods [2]. Market Analysis - Apple futures prices fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The warehousing volume is lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the warehousing structure has decreased. The outbound work has started, but the goods flowing to the market are limited. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus. The price is generally stable, and this week, attention should be paid to the completion of warehousing in Shandong and Shanxi and the outbound speed in the west [3]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the commodity rate this year is low. Merchants are cautious about ordering general goods. The warehousing work is gradually entering the later stage, and the warehousing volume is lower than the same period last year [4]. Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - Red date futures prices showed a downward trend yesterday. The purchase price of red dates in some areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. The new goods in the sales areas have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable. The new goods are expected to be concentrated on the market soon, and the inventory pressure is high. The market's future expectations are pessimistic [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9290 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 390, a change of + 35 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The purchase price of red dates in Aksu and Alar areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. Other production areas are mostly near the end of the purchase, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The enthusiasm of enterprises for purchase is average. The new goods in the sales areas of Hebei and Guangdong have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing is average. The new goods in the Hebei sales area are on the market in small quantities, and downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable [6]. Market Analysis - Red date futures prices showed a downward trend yesterday. The purchase price of red dates in some areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. The new goods in the sales areas have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable. The purchase enthusiasm in the sales area has decreased, and the new goods are not well - received. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased slightly. The new season's jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and the production reduction is an expected situation. The quality of jujube fruits is better than that of the same period last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be another focus of the market [7]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Recently, red date futures have fallen significantly for four consecutive weeks, and the market game has increased. The market expectations are relatively pessimistic. According to the modification of the red date delivery rules by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2025, old - season red dates can still participate in delivery and the cost is lower than that of new - season red dates, so the near - month contracts may still have a certain downward space [8].