新华财经北京6月16日电在避险情绪推动下，上周（6月9日至13日当周）国际现货黄金强势走高。当周 金价开盘3310.60美元／盎司，最高触及3446.75美元／盎司，最低3293.67美元／盎司，报收3433.47美元 ／盎司，全周上涨121.79美元或3.68%，周收盘价创下历史最高，且为连续第二周收涨。 分析来看，疲弱的美国通胀数据强化了市场对美联储将降息的预期，增加了黄金的吸引力；中东紧张局 势升级则进一步促使避险资金涌入黄金。在此背景下，展望新的一周金价走势，虽然美联储利率会议将 要登场，鲍威尔讲话或再度引爆市场，但随着周末中东地缘局势愈演愈烈，受益于避险情绪高涨，金价 或有望测试3500美元／盎司关口。 特朗普关税政策"续命"，贸易摩擦跌宕 上周初，受贸易局势积极变动的影响，市场情绪缓和，金价一度弱势下探，并测试3300-3290美元／盎 司支撑。不过，美国贸易政策的不确定性，导致市场对贸易局势紧张的担忧依然存在。尤其是美国总统 特朗普上周四（6月12日）在一项法案签署仪式上发表讲话时表示，可能会提高美国汽车关税，以提振 国内汽车制造业。这一表态被市场认为此举可能进一步加剧美国与贸易伙伴的紧张关系。 ...

Group 1: Conflict and Market Impact - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with Israel conducting airstrikes targeting Iranian military leadership and nuclear facilities, leading to a significant drop in the Iranian stock market [1] - The conflict has resulted in continued bombings, with key Iranian energy infrastructure, such as refineries and gas fields, becoming primary targets, which has further heightened tensions [1] - The U.S. stock market futures experienced a decline due to the escalating conflict, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropping by 31 points, a decrease of 0.1% [3] Group 2: Energy Market Reaction - Israeli attacks on Iranian energy facilities have directly contributed to a rise in oil prices, with U.S. oil prices increasing by 2% to $74.50 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices also rising by 2% to $75.77 per barrel [5] - Oil prices surged by 7% at the onset of the conflict, and Iranian lawmakers are considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade, through which approximately 21% of the world's oil is transported [5] - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head predicts that if Iranian oil supply is completely disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could potentially exceed $120 per barrel [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting to discuss inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical instability, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [7] - The meeting will also include new forecasts for future interest rates and economic indicators, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference [7] - The anticipation of no rate cuts later this year has put upward pressure on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [7]

6月16日，国际金价再度延续涨势，COMEX黄金高点突破3470美元/盎司，已逼近此前于今年4月下旬创 下的历史高点。 "下周美联储将召开6月议息会议，不降息在预期之内，市场更加关注美联储关于下半年通胀和货币政策 表态。地缘政治方面，以色列突袭伊朗，伊朗随后报复袭击以色列，双方冲突逐步升级，后期关注整个 中东地区的局势是否有再次走向混乱的局面，以及美国方面的表态。"展大鹏称，对于金价后续走势， 短期的关注点将从贸易冲突转向地缘政治，在地缘局势预期继续走向恶化之时，毫无疑问将继续推动金 价走势。对于白银而言，黄金的滞涨带动白银的补涨，但地缘态势的转变使得资金再次聚焦黄金，白银 则顺势回调，但金银比的回归以及金价的再次上涨，使得银价向上空间吸引力再次加大。 国际金价拉动下，沪金主力合约2508于16日早盘已一度突破800元/克关口，相比7月15日732元/克的低 点，录得最大超9%的涨幅。 方正中期期货认为，地缘政治冲突升温，市场避险情绪回归，金银比再度走高。在美元信用受损，美债 规模不断增加的背景下，金银中长期上行逻辑未改。 金价连日回暖拉动下，金饰克单价也已重回1000元/克上方。6月16日，周生生足金饰品价 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar for the second consecutive day, currently trading at 0.006923 with a decline of 0.14%, pushing USD/JPY to the 144.75 region despite a lack of follow-through action [1] - The Bank of Japan is considering a plan to halve its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchase speed starting from April 2026, which is expected to gain majority support during the upcoming policy meeting [2] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the June policy meeting, while policymakers believe inflation will be slightly higher than earlier expectations, potentially paving the way for future rate hike discussions [2] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is hovering around the resistance level of 144.75, with a breakthrough above 145.00 seen as a key bullish trigger that could push the pair to monthly highs near 145.45 [3] - The 144.00 level is currently seen as a protective barrier for downside movement, with potential buying interest expected around 143.55-143.50 if a decline occurs [3] - A convincing break below 143.50 could lead USD/JPY to the 143.00 level, followed by the swing low around 142.80-142.75 and the lower boundary of the trading range near the mid-142.00s [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 657 contracts to 129,851 contracts [1] - Net long positions in silver reached a 12-week high, while copper hit a 10-week high and platinum rose to a 16-week high [1] - Palladium's net long positions fell to a seven-month low [1] Group 2: Energy Market - NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil net long positions increased to 19-week and 10-week highs, respectively, at 179,134 contracts and 329,383 contracts [1] - NYMEX gasoline's net long positions dropped to a seven-week low, while NYMEX heating oil/diesel reached a 15-week high [1] - Despite a reduction in NYMEX natural gas net long positions to 321,804 contracts, the absolute value of long positions hit a three-month high, and the absolute value of short positions reached a seven-month peak [1] Group 3: Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets - The net long position in Japanese yen stood at 144,595 contracts, indicating continued investor interest in safe-haven assets [1] - Speculators increased net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures across short to long-term maturities, particularly in 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury futures, while net short positions in ultra-long Treasury futures decreased [1] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Agricultural Products - The net short position in S&P 500 index futures significantly increased, while stock fund managers raised their net long positions in the same index, reflecting differing market outlooks [2] - In the agricultural sector, net short positions in coffee, wheat, and corn decreased, while net short positions in cotton and sugar expanded [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on June 16, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Geopolitical conflicts and economic data are important factors affecting the market, and short - term events may provide investment opportunities [2]. - Financial总量 continues to grow reasonably, and policies are coordinated to promote economic recovery. In the stock market, short - term events may cause declines, but the long - term value of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is recognized, with a preference for the pan - technology direction [9][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On June 13, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure. On June 16, they are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided. In June 2025, they are expected to be mostly in a strong - oscillation state [22][30]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 13, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed a slight upward trend. On June 16, the ten - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while the thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state [49][54]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, gold futures showed an upward trend, and silver futures showed a slight downward trend. On June 16, both are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state. In June 2025, gold is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation, and silver is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state and may set a new high [57][65]. 3.1.4 Base Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of base metals futures varied. Copper, zinc, and nickel showed downward trends, while aluminum, lead, and tin showed upward trends. On June 16, most are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, except for alumina and zinc which are expected to oscillate weakly or consolidate. In June 2025, their trends also vary [68][83][96]. 3.1.5 Energy Futures - On June 13, 2025, crude oil and fuel oil futures showed significant upward trends. On June 16, crude oil is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, and fuel oil is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation. The conflict between Iran and Israel has a significant impact on the energy market [116][124]. 3.1.6 Agricultural Product Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of agricultural product futures varied. PTA and methanol showed upward trends, while PVC and soybean meal showed slight downward trends. On June 16, their trends are predicted to be different, with some expected to oscillate strongly, some to oscillate widely, and some to oscillate and consolidate [125][131]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - President Xi Jinping will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit. The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping will be published in Qiushi. The State Council has carried out relevant work, and the central bank has released financial data, showing that the financial support for the real economy is stable. The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan repurchase operation, and the RMB swap agreement with Turkey has been renewed [8][9][11]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified, affecting global markets. The US stock market, European stock market, and Middle Eastern stock market have all declined, while the prices of crude oil and precious metals have risen. The market is concerned about the impact of this conflict on the global economy and the supply of crude oil [14][29]. - The eurozone's industrial and trade sectors were significantly impacted in April, with a decline in industrial output and a sharp drop in the trade surplus. The global "super central bank week" is approaching, and the market is awaiting the interest rate decisions of central banks such as the Federal Reserve [19]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented on October 9, 2025. International precious metals and oil futures showed an upward trend on June 13, 2025, mainly due to geopolitical tensions. The global physical gold ETF had a net outflow in May 2025 [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant price increases in 2025, with spot silver prices rising from approximately $29 per ounce at the beginning of the year to around $36.8 per ounce by early June, marking a cumulative increase of over 27% [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased demand for precious metals, including silver, which has seen a surge in prices due to this safe-haven demand [2]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is a key driver of silver demand, with the International Energy Agency projecting that global PV installations will exceed 600 gigawatts in 2024, maintaining stable growth into 2025. Silver plays a crucial role in solar cell production, directly impacting energy conversion efficiency [2]. - The growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market is also contributing to silver demand, with the World Silver Association reporting that the silver usage per unit in hybrid and electric vehicles is expected to increase by 21% and 71%, respectively, compared to traditional vehicles [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global silver production from major producing countries is struggling to keep pace with rising demand, resulting in a significant supply-demand gap. In 2024, total silver demand is projected to reach 36,700 tons, while supply is only expected to be 31,700 tons, creating a shortfall of 5,000 tons that has persisted for five consecutive years [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from various institutions believe that silver prices still have room for upward movement, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $40 per ounce this year, driven by increased PV installations and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4]. - The current gold-silver ratio is high at 90, indicating substantial potential for silver price increases. Additionally, ongoing central bank purchases of silver are expected to bolster bullish market sentiment [4]. - The silver market is entering a historic opportunity window, influenced by escalating supply-demand imbalances and the financial attributes of silver. Short-term price fluctuations will be affected by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy directions, while long-term growth will be supported by the explosive growth of the PV and EV industries [4].

道明证券表示，作为对中东紧张局势升级的对冲手段，黄金是在潜在地区动荡中风险较低的避险资产， 现将一个月的黄金价格目标定为3650 美元/盎司。 海外地缘冲突等因素影响，避险情绪升温，6月16日COMEX黄金期货价格上涨。6月16日早盘，黄金相 关ETF表现分化，截至发稿，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.59%，冲击五连涨；黄金股ETF（159562） 低开后走势震荡，目前跌幅收窄至0.54%，持仓股方面，萃华珠宝涨停，周大福、登云股份、西部黄 金、神宇股份等纷纷走强。 国盛证券表示，5月美国CPI录得2.4%，低预期的通胀和高频就业数据的走弱使得市场定价美联储降 息，美债利率下滑推动黄金上涨。此外，中东地缘局势出现新的转折点，市场避险情绪推升国际金价打 破盘整震荡行情走势，金银比出现了一定成的回升，黄金将再次反弹至高位。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 消息面上，据央视新闻16日报道，15日伊朗导弹袭击在以色列中部巴特亚姆造成的死亡数字上升至9 人。自13日本轮伊以冲突爆发以来，伊朗对以色列的袭击已造成以方16人死亡。 展望后市，南华期货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a trend of first declining and then rising. The Sino - US negotiation in London had no obvious changes. US inflation data in May was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's inflation data remained weak, and May's credit and social financing data had both positive and negative aspects. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated on Friday, leading to a decline in market risk appetite [3][11]. - Overseas zinc ore inflows increased, raw materials remained abundant, and smelters' bargaining power recovered. The internal and external processing fees increased steadily. With the repair of profits and sufficient raw materials, the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end was smooth. It is expected that the supply of refined zinc will recover strongly in June, and the supply side will gradually loosen. On the demand side, galvanized pipe orders decreased, and galvanized structural part orders decreased marginally. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased significantly, but there was a lack of continuous export orders. Environmental inspections slightly affected the production of zinc oxide enterprises, and their operating rate decreased slightly [4][11]. - Overall, the Sino - US negotiation had no obvious changes, and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased macro - uncertainty. The market's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The zinc price center moved down. However, downstream restocking at low prices made the inventory - reduction rhythm fluctuate, and it was difficult for the zinc price to decline rapidly. It is expected that the zinc price will remain oscillating weakly, and continuous attention should be paid to macro risks and inventory changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE zinc price decreased from 22,385 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price decreased from 2,662.5 dollars/ton to 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.41 to 8.31. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,546 tons to 45,466 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 5,975 tons to 131,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons to 7.71 million tons. The spot premium increased from 150 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2507 of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rose. Affected by the continuous increase in inventory on Monday, short - sellers increased their positions, and the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing at low prices increased, and with the Sino - US negotiation and the increasing expectation of a rate cut, the macro - environment improved. The zinc price recovered the decline at the beginning of the week, closing at 21,815 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.55%. The zinc price center moved down on Friday night. Due to macro - uncertainty and high inventory, the LME zinc price remained weak, closing at 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.35% [6] - As of June 13th, in the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,185 - 22,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 350 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream price was 22,205 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 270 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. As the inflow of imported zinc ingots increased and the downstream had some inventory after purchasing at low prices, the purchasing intensity weakened in the second half of the week, and traders lowered the spot premium. The market transaction was relatively dull [7] - As of June 13th, the LME zinc inventory was 131,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,975 tons. The SHFE inventory was 45,466 tons, a decrease of 1,546 tons from last week. As of June 12th, the social inventory was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from Monday and 0.22 million tons from last Thursday. After the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton during the week, downstream purchasing at low prices led to a significant decline in inventory in many places, especially in Shanghai and Tianjin. The inventory in Guangdong changed little due to the slow downstream pick - up rhythm and normal arrivals during the week [8] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, reached a principle agreement on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI and core PPI both increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the core PPI growth rate hitting a new low in nearly a year [9] - China's CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In the first five months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 2.3% year - on - year [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending June 13th, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,600 yuan/metal ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week; the imported zinc concentrate index was 53 dollars/dry ton, an increase of 2.65 dollars/dry ton compared to the previous week [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend chart of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium chart, the LME premium chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, social, and bonded areas, the zinc ore import profit - loss chart, the smelter profit chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart [13][15][17]

2025年06月16日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周五贵金属市场因伊以冲突再次冲高；基本面：美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机 冰箱在列；美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%，5 月份美国 PPI 整体涨幅依然温和，核心 PPI 创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平；美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 24.8 万人，高于预期的 24.2 万 人，也高于前值 24.7 万人，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，减少 4 吨；上期所黄金库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银 库存 1210 吨，比前一交易日减少 16 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15495 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14729 ...