1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different price trends and influencing factors. Overall, most varieties are expected to be in a state of shock, with some having upward or downward trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed shock and differentiation. Pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical buying, US soybeans and soybean oil rose last Friday. Yesterday, domestic oils and fats showed shock and differentiation, with rapeseed oil showing a weak shock. From a macro - environmental perspective, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and there may be progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The crude oil market faces geopolitical uncertainties, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the production forecast in 2026. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil fell slightly. From an industrial perspective, the planting of South American soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is in the later stage. The planting of Argentine soybeans is expected to accelerate. As of the week of November 26, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans was 36%, with a five - year average of 37.24%. Continue to pay attention to China's procurement of US soybeans and changes in US biodiesel policies. Recently, the domestic soybean inventory is relatively high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is relatively large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the expected increase in the monthly output of Malaysian palm oil in November has narrowed. The output of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% month - on - month according to MPOA and decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased by 19.7% and 15.9% according to ITS and AmSpec respectively. Since this year, the consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil has remained low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. However, with the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. Also, pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade relations and the import of Canadian rapeseed [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a strong shock, palm oil in a strong shock, and rapeseed oil in a shock. Recently, the sentiment in the oils and fats market has stabilized, the cost of domestic soybean oil continues to provide support, the domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock. Continue to pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil in November [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is firm, the futures market shows a shock, and the basis of soybean meal has increased slightly [6]. - **Logic**: On December 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes. The average profit of China's imported soybean crushing was - 49.58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.64 yuan/ton or - 20.32%. Internationally, the premium and discount spread between North and South American soybeans has narrowed, and attention should be paid to China's procurement. South American soybeans are affected by La Nina. The global agricultural meteorological report shows that in the next two weeks, there will be significant climate differentiation in the main agricultural areas of South America: continuous heavy rain in the central and northern parts of Brazil, increasing the risk of local floods, while the drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is deteriorating, increasing the growth pressure on new - season corn and soybeans. Overall, it is expected that US soybeans will operate in the range of [1100 - 1170]. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean inventory is high, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow, and the logic of futures - spot convergence dominates the narrow - range fluctuation of the January contract. In the medium term, China has returned to the US soybean market, and the procurement progress in January has exceeded 45%. The import of Australian seeds is expected to be strong. The inventory of soybean meal of downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. Pay attention to the performance of the consumption peak season in December. It is expected that the basis of soybean meal will increase slightly, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract may widen. In the long term, whether the weather in South America is normal determines the price trend and increase or decrease of soybean meal [6][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to be in a shock. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and attention should be paid to the hype of La Nina for South American soybeans. It is expected that US soybeans will be in a high - level shock. The import crushing profit has been repaired, soybean procurement has accelerated, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal by oil mills is slow, downstream buyers have placed orders at low prices in the futures market, and spot transactions have increased, leading to an increase in the basis. It is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be in a range - bound shock. Pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the change of the main contract [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The price in the Northeast continues to strengthen, and pressure is beginning to appear in North China [8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices have shown mixed trends. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast has decreased significantly, and they have generally raised prices to increase the volume. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China is uneven, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly according to actual conditions. The arrival volume at ports has increased, and prices are temporarily stable under the support of demand. Recently, the futures and spot prices of corn have been strong. The core indicator supporting the strong price is the low - level operation of the inventory at northern ports, and this trend will temporarily continue. Due to the difference in grain quality structure and regional price spread, the outflow of corn from the Northeast is much higher than that of the same period last year, which is the core reason why the port inventory has not been accumulated. First, the quality of corn in North China is poor and the toxin content is high, so local corn cannot flow into the feed market in large quantities, resulting in feed enterprises in various places purchasing orders from the Northeast. Second, since the price of corn in the Northwest has been rising since the start of the purchase, the cost of traders is relatively high, and the price of corn in the Northwest is continuously inverted with the sales area, so it cannot supply the gap in the sales area in the short term. Therefore, the national demand depends on Northeast corn (with good quality and high bulk density) in the short term, resulting in a much higher outflow of Northeast corn than in previous years. In addition, many traders pre - sold corn (signed sales contracts but did not purchase) because the market was generally bearish before. As the contracts are approaching the expiration date, traders are rushing to purchase and ship the grain to fulfill the contracts; there are even cases of repeated purchases due to the tight transportation capacity, and the short - term concentrated demand has pushed up the price at northern ports. In North China, as the mainstream price in Shandong reaches 2300 yuan/ton, the market's reluctance to sell has been significantly alleviated, and the supply of wet corn has gradually increased, which will limit the further increase in prices. In the short term, the bullish driving force continues, and the price will maintain a strong shock. In the future, it is still necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of the downstream tense situation. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to remain in a high - level shock. Currently, it is a game between the realization of selling pressure and the inventory building of traders. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory and wheat prices [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a shock. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the shock trend of the spot price will continue [9]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The pressure of slaughter remains, and the price is in a low - level shock [10]. - **Logic**: **Supply**: In the short term, the number of second - fattened pigs in late November decreased by 18% month - on - month, and large pigs were put on the market. In the medium term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still fluctuating at a high level, and the number of newly - born piglets from January to October continued to increase month - on - month. According to the breeding cycle, it is expected that the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be in excess until the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025. According to the samples of the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of sows decreased month - on - month from July to October, and the national sow inventory in October decreased to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Currently, the self - breeding and self - raising of pigs continue to be in a loss state. Driven by "policy + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. **Demand**: There is sporadic bacon - curing in the South, and the demand drive is still insufficient. **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight has increased for three consecutive weeks. **Rhythm**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, the inventory of large pigs is large, the slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased month - on - month but is still at a high level, the supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is weak. In the medium term, according to the production capacity realization cycle of sows and piglets, the supply of commercial pigs will remain at a high level before the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward trend. In the long term, the production capacity of sows in the country began to show signs of decline in the third quarter of 2025. Currently, driven by "anti - involution + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a weak shock. In the near - term, in the fourth quarter, pigs are still in the period of high - level production capacity realization, and the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year will continue to weaken the pig price. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, which is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The price of far - month contracts is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It fell against the trend of industrial products, and the price is in a range - bound shock [12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the weakening of floods in Thailand, the pressure of increased output, the accumulation of inventory at domestic ports, and the weak trend of Japanese rubber, the price of natural rubber fell against the trend of industrial products yesterday. Recently, natural rubber has maintained a narrow - range shock pattern. Last week, the news of floods in the southern part of Thailand fermented, but the futures market did not respond accordingly. Instead, it oscillated downward under the influence of bearish news such as inventory accumulation, the addition of new delivery substitutes for NR, and the postponement of the EUDR confirmation. However, it was also supported by the downstream procurement enthusiasm and its relatively low valuation, and the decline was very limited. In the second half of the week, with the expectation of the flood receding in the production area and the gradual resumption of raw material procurement by processing plants, the futures market rebounded rapidly, but the upward pressure was still obvious. In the recent period, the futures market has basically maintained such a tug - of - war trend. Although the support below is strong and the long - term bullish consensus is high, it is also restricted by the current seasonal increase in output and the inventory - accumulation period. In the future, it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral driving force for the time being. Attention can be paid to the quantitative situation of domestic delivery products in mid - to - late December [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to maintain a wide - range shock with high elasticity, and it is still difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The driving force is not strong, and it maintains a follow - up shock [15]. - **Logic**: BR's price fell yesterday due to the weakening of natural rubber and its weak supply - demand situation. In the past two weeks, it has basically shown a shock - consolidation trend after rebounding from the listing low, but there is a lack of new marginal variables. It is waiting for new driving forces under the support of the natural rubber futures market and the good trading volume of butadiene. Although the short - term raw material pressure, especially the supply pressure shown by the butadiene port inventory, is relatively large, most of it has been reflected in the previous futures market's decline due to the expected increase in imports. So, for the time being, even if the raw material price has not improved and this price gives production enterprises a good processing profit, the futures market has not further traded this bearish situation. In the raw material market, the price of butadiene first fell and then rose last week, showing a slight shock overall. After the price was slightly pushed up in the early stage, there was a co - existence of the mentality of upstream enterprises to sell at high prices and downstream enterprises to buy at low prices, resulting in poor high - price transactions, and the market was under pressure to decline at the beginning of the week. However, the external market rose slightly during the week, and some domestic suppliers controlled the quantity and supported the price, driving the butadiene market to stop falling and oscillate in the middle of the week. Although there has been a continuous follow - up of rigid - demand buyers, the inventory has been at a high level recently, and the cautious supply - side expectation has also led to poor transactions of some slightly high - priced offers, and the market has maintained a small - range shock [15]. - **Outlook**: There is no upward driving force for the time being, and it is supported by natural rubber below. The futures market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The hedging pressure restricts the short - term upward height [15]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, new cotton is continuously being listed, and the inspection progress is faster than in previous years. The output of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the supply is continuously increasing. In terms of demand, affected by seasonal factors, the number of new orders has slightly decreased month - on - month recently, but the overall level is still good, and there is no obvious bearish or negative feedback on the demand side. In terms of inventory, according to BCO data, currently in the peak listing period, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. However, the inventory as of mid - November has decreased year - on - year, indicating that the apparent demand for cotton is good, which supports the price. Recently, the 01 contract has continued to rebound, and the support below is obvious. However, as the price rises, the hedging pressure gradually increases, and the upward space is limited. Overall, the short - term rebound space of the 01 contract is limited; in the long term, the cotton price may maintain a shock - strong pattern, and the far - month contracts have long - position allocation value [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is in a range - bound shock; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is in a low - level shock [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock. The core logic is that the global sugar market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Major producing countries such as Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The prospect of supply surplus makes the long - term price of domestic and international sugar have a downward driving force, so the general direction of the sugar price is downward. In addition, StoneX expects that Brazil may further increase production in the 26/27 crushing season, making the long - term price outlook rather pessimistic. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere has entered the new - season sugar production. According to Pan - Sugar Technology Information, as of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and 113 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India, have started production, with a cumulative cane crushing of 1.03582 million tons. As the supply

Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is experiencing a downturn with significant profit declines due to falling pig prices and macroeconomic capacity adjustments [2][6][7] - Leading companies with low costs and strong cash flow are recommended for investment, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [2][6] - The feed industry shows continued growth, with major players like Haida Group benefiting from increased sales and improved profit margins [3] - The pet food sector is witnessing high growth in proprietary brands, although overall profits are under pressure due to declining export revenues [4] Pig Farming Industry - In Q3 2025, the pig farming sector's revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year to approximately 121.6 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 70% to around 5.9 billion yuan [2] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs fell to 42 yuan per head, a decrease of about 13 yuan from Q2 2025 [2][7] - The industry is entering a phase of loss-driven capacity reduction, with supply pressures expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [6][7] Feed Industry - The feed sector's revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 14.2% increase in Q3 [3] - Major feed companies are seeing a rise in sales volume and market share, with Haida Group's feed exports increasing by approximately 24% [3] - The outlook for the feed industry remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in both domestic and international markets [3] Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector's revenue increased by 9.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but net profit fell by 6.1% [4] - Domestic sales for leading brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are growing at around 40% [4] - Export revenues for pet snacks have declined, particularly in the U.S. market, where exports fell by 42% [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [5][72]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance in the pig farming sector continues, leading to downward pressure on pig prices. As of November 28, the pig price was 11.20 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, up 0.41 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, calf prices have rebounded, and the long-term trend for beef prices is upward. As of November 28, the price for fattened bulls was 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, while calf prices rose to 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows [3][33]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks, with prices slightly adjusting. As of November 28, the price for white feather broilers was 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, while broiler chick prices were 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY [4][40]. - The agricultural products sector, particularly soybean meal, is seeing price fluctuations. As of November 28, the spot price for soybean meal was 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels [4][55]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The supply-demand imbalance persists, leading to a decrease in pig prices. The average price on November 28 was 11.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was -147.99 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -248.82 CNY/head, reflecting ongoing losses in the sector [10]. Beef Industry - Calf prices have shown signs of recovery, with the price for fattened bulls at 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, and calf prices at 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows, leading to a potential upward trend in beef prices in the coming years [3][33]. Poultry Sector - The enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks has decreased, with broiler prices at 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, and broiler chick prices at 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY. The ongoing avian influenza outbreak may lead to a contraction in upstream production capacity [4][40][43]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a spot price of 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels and external factors affecting supply [4][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, supply pressure remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate narrowly, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices before the Spring Festival and in the first half of next year are not optimistic, while prices in the second half of next year are expected to be relatively strong but with caution [5][54]. - For the egg industry, the marginal improvement of supply - demand looseness is observed, and attention should be paid to spot price guidance. In the short - term, egg prices have support at the bottom, while in the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - For the corn industry, the selling pressure needs to be digested, and caution is needed when chasing high prices on the futures market. In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the national spot price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11465 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from last week [5][12][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The average slaughter weight increased by 0.41 kg to 129.22 kg; the fat - standard price difference decreased by 0.10 yuan to 0.54 yuan; the proportion of pigs below 90 kg increased by 0.35% to 4.83%, and the proportion of pigs above 150 kg increased by 0.94% to 6.32% [13]. - Demand - related indicators: The weekly average daily slaughter rate increased by 1.47% to 35.41%; the weekly average daily slaughter volume increased by 6066 heads to 146566 heads; the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.18% to 85.60%; the slaughter processing profit increased by 1.30 yuan/head to 7.2 yuan/head [13]. - Inventory - related indicators: The frozen - product inventory rate decreased by 0.07% to 20.15%; the pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.37 [13]. - Cost - related indicators: The price of 7 - kg weaned piglets increased by 5.95 yuan/head to 215.95 yuan/head; the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 1 yuan/head to 299 yuan/head; the price of binary breeding sows remained stable at 1548 yuan/head; the price of pig feed increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 2.62 yuan/kg [13]. - Profit - related indicators: The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased by 59.74 yuan/head to - 141.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 84.03 yuan/head to - 248.95 yuan/head [13]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased. In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, still 2.31% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads [17]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%, the farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the increase in demand is not obvious. Pig prices will fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will remain high before the first half of next year, and prices will be under pressure. In the second half of next year, prices are expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][54]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month and off - season contracts on rallies; be cautiously bullish on far - month contracts [5][54]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg contract 2601 was 3293 yuan/500 kg, up 109 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 653 yuan/500 kg, 49 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [6][60][80]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens remained unchanged at 57.00%; the average price of laying - hen chicks remained stable at 2.70 yuan/head; the average price of culled hens decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin to 3.80 yuan/jin; the culled - hen slaughter volume increased by 1760000 heads to 21.97 million heads; the age of culled hens decreased by 3 days to 489 days [61]. - Demand - related indicators: The egg shipment volume increased by 115.61 tons to 6216.77 tons; the sales volume in the sample sales areas decreased by 37 tons to 7435 tons [61]. - Inventory - related indicators: The production - link inventory decreased by 0.1 - 0.32 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 0.05 - 0.16 days [61]. - Profit - related indicators: The expected profit of laying - hen farming decreased by 4.29 yuan/head to - 27.35 yuan/head; the profit per jin of eggs decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin to - 0.27 yuan/jin [61]. 3.2.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and egg prices have support at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing long positions on the 01 contract; breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; be cautiously optimistic about the medium - term and still cautious about the long - term [6][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2275 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn contract 2601 was 2244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 31 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday [7][86][105]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national grain - selling progress was 30%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in North China was 28%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, 4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the arrival volume at northern ports increased by 23.1 tons to 73 tons; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 251 vehicles to 804 vehicles [87][88][105]. - Demand - related indicators: The deep - processing enterprise operating rate increased by 0.49% to 61.38%; the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises increased by 3.84 tons to 129.07 tons; the shipping volume from northern ports increased by 34.4 tons to 74.4 tons [87]. - Inventory - related indicators: The northern - port corn inventory increased by 6 tons to 140 tons, and the southern - port corn inventory decreased by 2.9 tons to 59.9 tons; the corn inventory days of sample feed enterprises increased by 1.6 days to 27.83 days; the corn inventory of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by 2.9 tons to 269.8 tons [87]. - Profit - related indicators: The pig - farming profit decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan; the laying - hen farming profit decreased by 4.29 yuan to - 27.35 yuan; the Shandong corn - starch processing profit decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton; the theoretical import profit of US corn from the Gulf increased by 103.08 yuan/ton to 315.37 yuan/ton [87]. 3.3.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices on the futures market; grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies; the medium - to - long - term demand will gradually recover, but the upside is limited [7][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the pig market, the short - term strategy is cautiously bearish, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is cautiously bullish [9] - For the egg market, the strategy is neutral [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Pig Market**: In 2025, the pig market showed an oscillating downward trend. The stable inventory of reproductive sows led to relatively moderate price fluctuations. The industry's production efficiency improvement and policy - guided slaughter rhythm adjustment pushed pig prices down, causing the industry to fall into a loss. The current focus is on the "capacity reduction" process. In the short term (end - 2025 to Q1 2026), due to high supply pressure and limited demand support, pig prices will remain weakly oscillating. In the medium - to - long term (after June 2026), as capacity data drops, supply pressure will ease, and pig prices may turn upward. However, the impact of diseases needs to be watched [1][6][7] - **Egg Market**: In 2025, the egg market was dominated by high supply and weak demand. High chicken - fry sales in the first half of the year led to a high inventory of laying hens. Traditional seasonal demand boosts were not obvious, and prices showed an oscillating downward trend throughout the year. Currently, capacity reduction has started, but the high inventory of laying hens makes it difficult to substantially relieve short - term supply pressure. In 2026, as capacity reduction continues, supply pressure is expected to ease, and the market will operate with seasonal fluctuations [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Pig Market Review - **Spot and Futures Market Trends**: Pig prices in 2025 mainly oscillated downward. After a small rebound in the middle of the year, prices fell due to policy and supply factors. In the first quarter, prices were low and stable. In April, prices rose due to feed cost increases, then fell back. In June - July, prices rose again due to factors like reduced slaughter weight and secondary fattening, and then fell rapidly after August [19][21][24] Pig Breeding Profit and Capacity Cycle - **Pig Capacity Cycle**: In 2025, the pig capacity was stable, with the inventory of reproductive sows fluctuating around 40.5 million. Starting from October, the inventory decreased to 39.9 million due to "capacity reduction" policies and industry losses, and it is expected to continue to decline [26] Pig Supply Situation - **Capacity - side Changes**: From June 2024 to September 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was stable at around 40.5 million, which supported high pig slaughter volumes from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026. After October 2025, the inventory decreased, which may adjust the supply pattern in the second half of 2026 [28] - **MSY Changes**: In 2025, China's pig MSY was about 21, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. With the improvement of breeding technology, PSY and MSY are expected to continue to rise [33] - **Breeding Profit Changes**: Low feed costs and cost - control measures of large - scale farms have reduced breeding costs. Currently, self - breeding and self - fattening profits are around - 100 yuan per head, while purchasing piglets for fattening incurs a greater loss of about - 270 yuan per head [36] - **Pig Slaughter Weight and Secondary Fattening**: During the pig - price decline, farmers' reluctance to sell led to a high average slaughter weight. Secondary fattening in April and October provided short - term price support, but its impact on the market is expected to be mild in the future [41][43] Pig Demand Situation - **Pig Slaughter**: As pig prices fell, the frozen - meat inventory increased, and the slaughter data did not fully reflect consumption. In October, the average pig price decreased by 28% year - on - year, but the slaughter volume increased by 26.8%. The impact of year - end demand on pig prices remains to be seen [45] Domestic Pig - Breeding Industry Structure Changes - **Increased Concentration of Leading Enterprises**: In 2025, the market share of leading pig - breeding enterprises continued to increase. The top ten and top 23 group farms had market shares of 24.6% and 27.8% respectively from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5 percentage points. The pig market is expected to remain in a low - volatility cycle [54] Pig Market Outlook - Short - term: Due to high supply pressure and limited demand support, pig prices at the end of 2025 and in Q1 2026 will remain weakly oscillating [7] - Medium - to - long - term: After June 2026, as capacity reduction affects supply and the third quarter is a slaughter off - season, supply pressure will ease, and pig prices may turn upward. However, the impact of diseases needs to be watched [8] 2025 Egg Market Review - **Spot and Futures Market Trends**: In 2025, egg prices showed a two - stage decline. High laying - hen inventory put pressure on prices at the beginning of the year. After a short - term rebound in the middle of the year, prices continued to fall due to oversupply. At the end of the year, prices rebounded due to capacity reduction and increased demand [64][68][72] Egg Supply Situation - **Egg Inventory and Chicken - fry Sales**: As of the end of November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still 8.46% higher year - on - year. In November, chicken - fry sales were 36.03 million, a slight month - on - month increase. Overall, farmers' willingness to replenish the flock is still insufficient [76] - **Culled - hen Slaughter**: Currently, the total culled - hen slaughter volume has increased, with a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The average age of culled hens has decreased to 491 days [79] - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Costs and Profits**: Currently, egg - laying hen breeding costs are 3.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The breeding profit is - 0.51 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 18.6%. The industry is still in a loss [83] Egg Demand Situation - **Production - area Shipment Volume**: As of November 28, 2025, the total egg shipment volume was 295,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.95%. With the approaching of the demand peak season, future shipment volumes may increase [86] - **Sales - area Receipt Volume**: As of November 28, 2025, the receipt volume in the Beijing market decreased by 19.5% month - on - month, while that in the Guangdong market increased by 6.28% month - on - month, showing a significant difference between the north and the south [90] - **Egg Market Inventory**: As of November 28, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a month - on - month decrease of 21.26%, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10%, indicating obvious inventory reduction [94] Egg Market Outlook - In 2025, the egg market was dominated by high supply and weak demand. Currently, capacity reduction has started, but short - term supply pressure remains high. In 2026, as capacity reduction continues and the supply - conduction cycle is about four months, supply pressure is expected to ease. The market will operate with seasonal fluctuations, and two key variables need to be tracked: the rhythm and intensity of capacity reduction and the actual demand boost effect [95][96][98]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 牧原股份赴港上市获证监会备案 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业略跑赢沪深300指数。2025年11月14日—2025年11月27日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌3.79%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约0.18个百分点；细分 板块中，仅渔业录得正收益，上涨7.89%；动物保健、种植业、养殖业、 饲料和农产品加工均录得负收益，分别下跌0.85%、3.31%、3.34%、4.76% 和7.96%。估值方面，截至2025年11月27日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.80倍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may face downward or upward pressure in different time frames [1]. - The agricultural market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, policies, and international trade [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Livestock (Pigs) - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price remains weak [1][2]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, monthly supply is abundant, and the planned daily slaughter of large - scale farms in November slightly increases compared to October. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until the first quarter of 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. Demand is insufficient, and the average slaughter weight is increasing [2]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts may continue to be weak due to high - capacity realization and large - pig slaughter pressure at the end of the year. The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [3]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The expected increase in November's palm oil production in Malaysia narrows, and market sentiment shows signs of stabilization [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market anticipates an improvement in US soybean export demand and a possible Fed rate cut in December. In the industry, the progress of South American soybean planting is smooth, and the expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high. For palm oil, the expected month - on - month increase in Malaysia's November production narrows, and exports decline. For rapeseed oil, domestic supply is currently tight, but it may increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly, palm oil to oscillate, and rapeseed oil to oscillate strongly. The market may gradually stabilize [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread decreases [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Sino - US communication may boost market sentiment. La Nina is expected, and South American soybean planting is progressing. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to reach 440 million tons. Domestically, the profit of soybean imports is repaired, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high. The sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal increase, and the inventory of soybean meal decreases seasonally [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight. Factors include farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream replenishment needs, differences in grain quality and regional price differences, traders' rush to buy, and tight transportation capacity [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. In the short - term, the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price will continue to oscillate [11]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation [13]. - **Logic**: After the previous decline due to high export data in October and weak downstream procurement, the market rebounded due to the flood in southern Thailand. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The RU contract may face greater selling pressure than the NR contract [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, and there is no obvious trend [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Continue to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded recently, mainly due to the relatively stable trading of raw material butadiene. However, there is still pressure on the fundamentals and raw material side [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Under the game between long and short forces, it will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production. On the demand side, consumption has been good in recent months. The commercial inventory is accumulating, and the price is supported by cost and downstream procurement but faces hedging pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range. In the long - term, it is undervalued and is expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the medium - and long - term, there is a downward drive, but the cost side provides short - term support [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The supply pressure will increase as the new sugar is pressed. However, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and the support at 5300 yuan/ton should be monitored in the short - term [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - and far - term futures differs [17]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to oscillate within a wide range [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures will mainly oscillate widely [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The raw material price is weak, and offset paper oscillates at a low level [19]. - **Logic**: The weakening of the pulp market and light social demand affect the price. Although some paper mills want to maintain prices, the market remains under supply pressure [19]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists. There is price support in the short - term due to publishers' purchases, but it may oscillate weakly in the medium - term [20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Log prices are weakening and entering the deep - value area [21]. - **Logic**: The market is weak with no obvious buying interest. The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and demand is expected to be weak in 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The supply is loose, demand has no incremental expectation, and the spot price is under pressure. It will maintain a narrow - range bottom - oscillating trend [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The overall commodity index shows different trends. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and industrial product index, shows slight increases, while the PPI commodity index shows a slight decrease [179]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 26, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.30% on the day, 0.55% in the past 5 days, 0.06% in the past month, and decreased by 2.68% since the beginning of the year [180].

Market Overview - On November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.61%, the STAR Market 50 rose by 0.99%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.13% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on November 26 were telecommunications (+4.64%), comprehensive (+1.79%), electronics (+1.58%), retail (+1.11%), and home appliances (+0.96%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-2.25%), social services (-0.97%), media (-0.82%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.8%), and banking (-0.79%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 26 was 17,971.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.952 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Important Recommendations - The report recommends Chengda Biological (688739) due to the synergistic effects of shareholder involvement and continuous innovation. The company is expected to see accelerated transformation and revenue growth driven by mergers and acquisitions and new vaccine commercialization [7] - Revenue forecasts for Chengda Biological from 2025 to 2027 are 1,347.93 million yuan, 1,418.37 million yuan, and 1,530.02 million yuan, with growth rates of -19.59%, 5.23%, and 7.87% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 200.23 million yuan, 222.63 million yuan, and 253.73 million yuan, with growth rates of 41.59%, 11.19%, and 13.97% respectively [7] Industry Insights Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The core viewpoint emphasizes deepening value in the agricultural sector and positioning for new cyclical opportunities. The market outlook indicates continued pressure on pig prices, uncertainty in beef prices, and persistent low prices for poultry, with intensified competition in feed and animal health sectors [8][9] - The report suggests that leading pig enterprises can maintain profitability through cost advantages and structural optimization despite production capacity constraints. The feed sector is expected to see growth potential for companies with cost control and integrated supply chains, while the animal health sector may benefit from pet care and international expansion [9][12] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is anticipated to experience a rebound in 2026, characterized by a combination of high probability and favorable odds. The market outlook for this sector is cautious due to the high base in 2025, but a potential recovery is expected amid a long-term "slow bull" market for equities [10][13] - The report highlights that the asset and liability sides of the financial sector are expected to resonate positively, supporting the overall growth of the sector [13]

Group 1 - The pig farming industry has been experiencing continuous losses for 10 weeks, currently in a moderate loss state, with an average loss of 135 RMB per head in major production areas, which is an increase of 21 RMB from the previous week [1][2] - The national average price for live pigs is 11.64 RMB per kilogram, down 0.09 RMB from the previous week, while the average price for 15-kilogram piglets remains stable at 23.86 RMB per kilogram [1][2] - The industry is facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy pressures, leading to an expected increase in the motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] Group 2 - The slaughtering situation is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in pig output from 17 listed companies in October, indicating a short-term supply surplus [2] - The operating rate of large-scale slaughter enterprises is 35.85%, up 1.48 percentage points from the previous week and 4.49 percentage points from the same period last year [2] - The total number of breeding sows in the country is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] Group 3 - The valuation of most listed breeding companies is at historical lows, indicating significant potential for long-term investment [3][6] - The chicken industry is experiencing low price fluctuations, with broiler prices at historical lows, but there is potential for price increases in the medium term due to supply trends [4] - The yellow chicken prices have been rising, influenced by seasonal demand recovery, while the industry capacity remains at historically low levels [5][6] Group 4 - The animal health industry has shown signs of recovery, with optimistic performance expected in the third-quarter reports of major listed companies [7] - Prices for key antibiotics remain high, and there is significant growth in the sales of domestic vaccines, indicating a positive outlook for companies engaged in pet health [7]