证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 洼地掘金 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾："乱纪元"中，变化无常 6 月 9-13 日，类权益市场重回震荡区间。截至 2025 年 6 月13 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 5142.43，较 6 月 6 日下跌 0.27%；中 证转债同期下跌 0.02%，各价位转债估值回落。 中美第二轮贸易谈判&中东局势升级，是本周主要的交易线 索。随事件而来的是市场波动率的回升。同时，小微盘拥挤 的结构性问题有所改善。截至 6 月 13 日，中证 2000 拥挤度 （中证 2000 换手率/万得全 A 换手率）处于 2023 年 9 月以来 79.3%分位数，较此前的历史极高位明显下降。行业层面，资 金倾向于参与拥挤度偏低的行业，而选择规避拥挤度偏高的 行业，"轮动思维"仍然是相对主流的交易思路。 ► 海外线索：美元走弱，油价上升 海外"乱纪元"的叙事并未改变。在中美第二轮谈判落地 后，美国又威胁对其他经济体征收单边税率，不过市场整体 反映趋于"麻木"，受 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述：地缘冲突带来不确定性，短期多配 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格继续偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2300-2420元/吨，广东价格波动在2280-2320元/吨。港口甲醇市场由 于对市场可流通量的担忧，月内买气好转，推动市场价格上涨，基差走强，但涨至高位后，市场买气走弱，价格窄幅回落，但整体仍维持强势运行为 主。本期内地甲醇市场小幅推涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1883-1897元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2150-2160元/吨。受宏观 情绪影响，盘面及港口价格上调，产区企业走量不走价积极超卖，叠加烯烃外采需求尚存，价格处于相对低位吸引部分贸易商介入，周内多数产区工 厂出货顺畅。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周 ...

瞬汻煝疵 · ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 㐌罔⬐痓ꆱ┪ꮴ䛉뀔劻䉗㐙㠁✇鱂 ——⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 2025 䌑 06 劓 15 傽 呦䖦間掾 ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 (010-8092-7696 *yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S0130522030004 潸⪸煝疵 2025-06-10:甯㴼䉕嚤䗼䫌鰑㺥労 2025-05-29┪䉗⪫⺶䌔鯺ꓨ缀ꁹ匡〘◲假⺈ 2025-05-21⛽⯈椚僓♣姚嵌鰑分ꏕ翞⼅獏 2025-05-12⪸瓭罏⾕⟥⺵┬〘◲升㑊劔労⺇漩 2025-05-08耘臅⥈ 5 劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴㐃ꄽ芤 ┱銻ꃹ뀔劻▇ꭊ耘臅⥈㠁✇䪹䭃 2025-05-07⪸ꨴ僓ꭊ虹掾溸䉘⚷┞䴗㲳ꓭ鄌侓 瞬甯䉗㐙甯뀔劻 2025-05-05䌑䫟⾕┞㳌䫟劔〘◲☗掾 2025-05-04◩┞⢏劻◜⚂唯槏䉗㐙㺥労 2025-04-254 劓╚㝠侓岖㹾⚷駖闌騣䭦缩甯㴼⾕ 嵛鳢鰑续䉗㐙臔撌〘◲做긖 2025-04-24⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ┞㳌䍳䭦♎ꓤ侒〘◲⟥⺵ 2025-04-08╚㎼曬䌐⬮㕈ꓭ埭疿⮃┿䳀䮵䉗㐙⟥䖦 2025-04-08寤ꓭ⪝䉗㑏㴼澚㝃 2025-04-06艧 2025 䌑◝㳌䍳䫌鰑㺥労♈⛓⡽ ...

每周思考总第633期 《A股短期决定变量转为 海外地缘冲突 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至6 月15日累计收益3.97%。 主板择时观点： 国内外基本面延续走弱符合康波萧条期基本面特征，伊以冲突升级也在康波萧条期 基本预判内，唯独国内机构资金不惧利空继续流入的状态超预期，密切关注上述多空合力，短期遵循 客观模型信号维持低仓位回避不变； 中小市值板块择时观点： 板块于5月中旬开启相对主板的补涨行情，也是本轮机构资金流入的直接受 益者，但本次中东地缘冲突下同步走弱，建议参照主板节奏同样维持 低仓位 回避不变，风格维持主 板占优； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：石油石化。 基本面上，中美经济数据均不理想。 国内方面， 上周中国官方陆续披露了进出口、物价、银行 货币供应等5月经济运行数据，整体均延续走弱 ，其中出口再度走弱大幅低于市场预期，尤其是对美 出口同比跌幅继续加大与此前市场消息面感受出入最大，但符合我们长波周期下的基本预判，国内物 价方面也延续了双降格局，凸显消费疲弱趋势仍在延续中，银行货币方方面看似M1同比回升但主要 源于去 ...

（1）周一开盘，市场的交易基调是冲突"加剧"还是"缓和"？ 每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜赵云 刚过去的交易周（6月9日~6月13日），A股前4天波澜不惊，周五突然放量下跌。 原因也很简单粗暴——以色列和伊朗打了起来，受恐慌情绪影响，全球资本市场突然进入"避险模式"，A股也没例外。 周五当天，原油、黄金、军工等板块顺势走强，一定程度上打断了不少板块原本的上攻节奏，如金融、新消费、游戏、传媒等。 而这个周末，相关消息仍在发酵，势必令各方疑虑： （2）如果按"加剧"来演绎行情，能持续几天？ 看似是"猜大小"的随机事件，其实在历史行情里有迹可循。本文就带大家回顾与当下情况最相似的案例—— 3年前俄乌冲突刚爆发时，A股是怎么走的？ （声明：本文意在探讨地缘冲突初期，情绪面主导行情时，市场表现可能存在的一些共性；并不直接比较两起冲突本身，也无意预测事件走向。） 2022年2月24日（周四），俄罗斯对乌克兰发起特别军事行动，俄乌冲突正式爆发。截至目前，冲突仍在持续。 当天起，全球大宗商品开启避险模式。原油、黄金日内收长上影线；随后持续上涨，于当年3月7日、8日见顶回落。 而与大宗商品不同，A股彼时（受冲突引起的）恐慌情绪未 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, nearing $3432 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven amid rising uncertainties, with the market reacting sensitively to any news [3][4] - There is a potential for short-term price corrections, and caution is advised against chasing high prices [3] Group 2: Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices have increased by 13%, approaching the $70 mark, primarily due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the security of oil supply routes [3][4] - The OPEC+ production cuts and underperformance of U.S. shale oil are contributing to a widening supply-demand gap, making price increases likely [3][4] - If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could potentially spike to $120, although this scenario is considered unlikely [3] Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, and trade tensions, which could impact market stability [4][5] - Key signals to monitor for long-term investors include any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the sustainability of OPEC+ production agreements [4] - Long-term asset performance will ultimately depend on cash flow generation rather than short-term market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of safety and peace as the foundation for business activities, suggesting that without these elements, conducting business becomes challenging [2] - It discusses the geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia and their potential long-term impacts on markets, particularly highlighting that conflicts can disrupt peace and development, which were previously the global norms [3][4] - The narrative shifts to Indonesia's industrialization and cultural understanding, indicating that knowing a country's myths and history can provide deeper insights into its societal values and business practices [5][6] Group 2 - The article introduces the myth of Sangkuriang, illustrating the cultural significance of family and authority in Indonesian society, which is crucial for understanding local business dynamics [12][17] - It also presents the myth of Tantu Pagelaran, explaining the origins of Java Island and the role of divine intervention in establishing order, reflecting the importance of structured governance in the region [18][20] - The story of Gajah Mada highlights the conflict between personal ambition and collective values, showcasing the historical context of power dynamics in Indonesia, which can inform current business strategies and leadership approaches [24][35]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline on June 13, 2025, with major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.75%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10%, and ChiNext Index down 1.13% [1] - Sectors such as mining, precious metals, and aerospace showed gains, while beauty care, cultural media, and bioproducts faced losses [1] Oil Market Insights - According to Xinda Securities, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $70 per barrel for the year, with a high-low-high-low trend anticipated across the four quarters [2] - The potential for oil price increases is linked to risks in the Iranian region, while downward risks are associated with Saudi Arabia [2] - Iran's oil supply accounts for 3% to 4% of global supply, and escalating conflicts could threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] Gold Market Analysis - Minsheng Securities highlighted that global monetary expansion and rising geopolitical tensions are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. interest rate cut cycle is expected to support further increases in gold prices, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [3] Military Trade Dynamics - Zhongtai Securities noted that recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a reassessment of military trade logic, suggesting significant growth potential in military exports [3] - China's military trade currently represents 5.9% of the global market, which is considerably lower than the U.S. at 43% and Russia at 9.6%, indicating room for expansion [3]

地缘冲突加速，为周末谈判前景增添疑云，黄金能否成为终将升起的烈阳？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The number of stocks with consecutive limit-up trading reached a one-month low, with only 8 stocks remaining, down from 18 in the previous trading day, indicating a significant decrease in market momentum [1] - The market's limit-up stock advancement rate was 27.78%, excluding ST and delisted stocks, reflecting a decline in investor enthusiasm [1] - The energy sector, particularly oil and gas, saw substantial gains, with WTI crude oil futures experiencing a spike of 13.00% during the day [1] Group 2 - The top-performing stocks included Keli Co., which hit a 30% limit-up, and Tongyuan Petroleum, Xinjin Power, and Deshi Co., which all reached a 20% limit-up [1] - The nuclear pollution prevention sector also performed well, with stocks like Jieqiang Equipment, Hengguang Co., and Zhongjin Irradiation achieving a 20% limit-up [1] - Notably, the Iranian Natanz nuclear facility experienced another explosion, contributing to the heightened interest in related sectors [1]